January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Announcement: US Stock Market Direction and Economic Indicator Analysis

1. Key Announcements

Core Consumer Price Index: Increased by 0.2% MoM. Lower than expected.
Headline Consumer Price Index: Increased by 0.4% MoM. In line with market expectations.
Fed Target (Above 2%): Still higher than the Fed's target (Core inflation at 3.2%).

Core inflation excludes external factors like energy and food prices and reflects the actual "underlying inflation," which is a crucial factor for the Fed's policy decisions.

2. Recent Market Conditions and Reactions

Rise in Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield had recently surged, burdening the stock market, but shifted to a downward trend after the announcement.
- Immediately after the announcement, the 10-year yield fell from 4.8% to below 4.7%.
- 2-year yield also declined.
Nasdaq: Showed an upward trend before the announcement, and with the CPI results exceeding expectations, it showed positive movement.
- Previously suppressed investment sentiment due to high CPI and employment indicators was somewhat alleviated.

3. Significance of the Announcement Results

Why is Core CPI Important?
- Factors such as energy and food prices are highly volatile, so the core index is analyzed to observe the manageable "real prices."
- A slowdown in core inflation in this announcement is a positive sign.
What is Supercore Inflation?
- Prices closely tied to wage fluctuations and more likely to become entrenched, such as dining costs, medical services, and airfares.
- The supercore inflation also came in lower than expected, which is positive.
Additional Observations:
Increase in energy prices: Increased the overall inflation, but the market had already foreseen this.
Shelter (Housing Costs): Relatively stable and has a long-term potential to decline.
Transportation service costs such as airfares increased to some extent but are not at a concerning level.

4. Outlook and Analysis

Market Reaction:
- Led to a decrease in bond yields and a positive reaction in the stock market after the announcement.
- It can be evaluated that Nasdaq has gained some breathing room after the announcement.
Interest Rate Outlook: The Fed's burden for interest rate cuts has decreased somewhat, and there's an increased possibility of flexible responses depending on future economic indicators.

< Summary in English >

January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis

Core CPI: Increased by 0.2% MoM, lower than expected.
Headline CPI: Increased by 0.4% MoM, meeting expectations.
Core CPI is crucial as it excludes volatile items like energy and food, focusing on persistent inflation indicators.

Market Reactions

Bond Yields:
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: Dropped from 4.8% to 4.7%.
- 2-Year Treasury Yield: Notable decline.
Nasdaq Performance: Positive due to favorable inflation data, shifting market sentiment.

Key Takeaways

Encouraging Super Core Inflation: Includes sticky costs like dining, medical services, and transportation, with a noticeable slowdown.
Energy and Shelter Costs: While energy prices rose, shelter costs remain reasonably stable.

Crafted by Billy Yang
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US Stocks and Interest Rates: Exploring the Latest Bond Yield Trends
Analysis of the Correlation between Consumer Prices and Fed Interest Rate Policies

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– 🤑나스닥 오늘부터 폭주 시작?! 답은 디테일에 있다!🤑

[Korean Summary]

[내일은 투자왕 – 김단테]
“🤑나스닥 오늘부터 폭주 시작?! 답은 디테일에 있다!🤑“

# 1월 미국 소비자 물가 발표: 미국 주식의 향방과 경제 지표 분석

1. 주요 발표 내용

근원 소비자 물가 지수: 전월 대비 0.2% 상승. 예상보다 낮게 나왔음.
일반 소비자 물가 지수: 전월 대비 0.4% 상승. 시장 예상치와 일치.
연준 목표(2% 이상): 연준의 목표치보다 여전히 높은 상태(근원 물가 3.2% 상승).

근원 물가는 에너지나 음식 가격과 같은 외부 요인 제외, 실제 "내재적 물가 상승"을 반영하는 지표로 연준의 정책 공식에 중요하게 다가옴.

2. 최근 시장 상황과 반응

채권 금리 상승: 10년물 채권 금리는 최근 급등하며 주식 시장에 부담을 줬지만, 발표 후 하락세로 전환.
- 발표 직후 10년물 금리는 4.8%에서 4.7% 이하로 하락.
- 2년물 금리도 하락.
나스닥: 발표 직전 상승세를 보였으며, 소비자 물가 지수가 기대 이상의 결과를 보이면서 긍정적인 움직임을 보임.
- 그동안의 높은 소비자 물가와 고용 지표로 눌려있던 투자 심리가 다소 해소됨.

3. 발표 결과의 의의

왜 근원 소비자 물가가 중요할까?
- 에너지나 식료품 같은 요인은 가격 변동성이 심하기 때문에 통제 가능한 "진짜 물가"를 보기 위해 근원 지수를 분석.
- 이번 발표에서 근원적인 물가 상승세가 둔화되며 긍정적인 신호.
슈퍼코어 물가란?
- 식사 비용, 의료 서비스, 항공 요금 등 주로 임금 변동과 밀접하게 연관되고 고착화되기 쉬운 물가.
- 이번 슈퍼코어 물가도 기대보다 낮게 나와 긍정적.
추가 관측:
에너지 가격 상승: 물가를 높였지만 시장은 이미 예견한 부분.
쉘터(주거비용): 비교적 안정적이고 장기적으로 하락 가능성 있음.
항공 요금 등 교통 서비스 비용은 일부 상승했으나 우려할 수준은 아님.

4. 전망과 분석

시장의 반응:
- 발표 후 채권 금리 하락, 주식 시장의 긍정적 반응으로 이어짐.
- 나스닥은 발표 후 한숨 돌릴 여유가 생겼다고 평가 가능.
금리 전망: 연준의 금리 인하 부담이 다소 줄어들며, 추후 경제 지표에 따라 유연한 대응 가능성 증가.

< Summary in English >

January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis

Core CPI: Increased by 0.2% MoM, lower than expected.
Headline CPI: Increased by 0.4% MoM, meeting expectations.
Core CPI is crucial as it excludes volatile items like energy and food, focusing on persistent inflation indicators.

Market Reactions

Bond Yields:
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: Dropped from 4.8% to 4.7%.
- 2-Year Treasury Yield: Notable decline.
Nasdaq Performance: Positive due to favorable inflation data, shifting market sentiment.

Key Takeaways

Encouraging Super Core Inflation: Includes sticky costs like dining, medical services, and transportation, with a noticeable slowdown.
Energy and Shelter Costs: While energy prices rose, shelter costs remain reasonably stable.