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Okay, let's dive straight into it. Here's the breakdown of 2025 global economic forecasts, comparing BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan's perspectives, all in English:

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2025 Global/Economic Outlook: Comparing BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan

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1. BlackRock's Outlook

Key Points

• Entering a "New Normal" Era:

  • Past economic prediction models are no longer valid.
  • Five "mega-forces" are driving this change:
    1. Aging and demographic shifts.
    2. AI and technological revolution.
    3. De-globalization and reshaping of international order.
    4. Major shift in financial investment structures.
    5. Energy transition: Changes in the traditional energy system.

• Investment Strategy:

  • Need for active investment strategies rather than passive.
  • Recommendations: U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.
  • Focus on assets like AI tech companies, gold, and Bitcoin.
  • Shift from global diversification to theme-based investment (e.g., AI, aging).

• Expectation of Increased Economic and Market Volatility:

• Both economic and market predictions becoming more difficult.

• Due to increased volatility, theme-based investments are recommended.

Key Graphs and Data:

• Three stages of AI: Building → Adoption → Transformation.
• Bitcoin's reduced volatility and lower correlation make it a suitable investment.

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2. Goldman Sachs' Outlook

Key Points

• Increased Economic Risks in 2025:

  • Expectation of wider tail risks.
  • The U.S. economy remains strong but warned of potential growth slowdown.

• Global Outlook:

  • Weakening domestic demand in China, severe local debt and real estate problems.
  • European economies face greater tariff and geopolitical risks compared to the U.S.
  • India has positive potential if it establishes a stable internal system.

• Investment Recommendations:

• Recommends reactivation of diversified investment (need to rebalance bonds and equities).

• Emphasizes alpha hunting, finding opportunities in value stocks.

• Recommends inflation-hedging assets such as TIPS.

• Need for fundamental-based investment in specific emerging market countries.

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3. JP Morgan's Outlook

Key Points

• Maintaining a Positive Outlook:

  • 본격적인 금리 인하 사이클 진입 (37개국 중 27개국 금리 인하) – Entering the full-scale interest rate cut cycle (27 out of 37 countries cutting rates).
  • Potential for AI to boost productivity → acting as an inflation-suppressing factor.

• AI-related Investments:

  • Need to pay attention to stocks related to the AI value chain.
  • Expand interest beyond big tech to companies related to the value chain.

• Relatively Positive about the long-term bond market:

• Expects multiple factors to mitigate inflationary pressures.

• Stabilizing U.S. Economy:
  • Expects all industry sectors to record profit growth (S&P 500).
  • The global capital market recovery has not yet arrived, so there is room for further upside.

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Summary:

1. BlackRock: Based on the premise of a new economic paradigm, U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are promising. Need for selective focus amidst the AI revolution and economic volatility.
2. Goldman Sachs: Warns of expanding tail risks. Need for risk management through selective stock picking (alpha hunting) and diversification. Focus on TIPS and value stocks.
3. JP Morgan: Sustained positive outlook due to interest rate cuts. Need to focus on the AI-related value chain. Long-term bonds are considered more stable than expected.

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• Crafted by Billy Yang
• [Related articles at Next-Korea.com]
  1. AI Revolution and Stock Market Changes
  2. 2025 Global Economic Outlook

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– [먼슬리구루] 블랙록, 골드만삭스, JP모건이 말하는 2025년 투자 전략 [풀영상]