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Nasdaq and Key Stock Market Trends: Analysis of Gains and Losses

Recent Nasdaq Market Trends

• The Nasdaq has risen by 1.8%, which is being seen as a positive sign, although not a significant surge.
• Nvidia, which experienced a sharp fall yesterday, is recovering with a 6.8% increase. However, its direction is still uncertain due to high volatility.

Recovery of Big Tech Stock Prices

• Major big tech stocks have recovered to some extent from their previous day's decline.
• Apple, with no specific issue, rose nearly 4%, marking two consecutive days of gains. This is being evaluated as a positive reflection of market sentiment regarding the DeepSeek controversy.

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Key Issues Related to DeepSeek

Efficiency of DeepSeek and Market Reactions

• The efficiency of the Chinese-based DeepSeek AI model has greatly improved.
• Consequently, concerns have been raised about the potential decrease in demand for GPUs and related infrastructure due to the efficiency improvements in the AI market.
• Some institutions, such as Morgan Stanley, anticipate that DeepSeek’s impact will be limited.

Positive Effects of AI Efficiency

• The news that a new AI language model released by Alibaba has achieved higher benchmarks than DeepSeek is also a positive signal.
• The efficiency of AI could accelerate the replacement cycle of smartphones and home computers, potentially stimulating demand for related infrastructure.
• Big tech companies are maintaining their existing GPU purchase plans.

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ETF Fund Inflows and Market Reactions

Major ETF Investment Trends

• $610 million has flowed into the ETF tracking the S&P 500 (SPY), which is the largest inflow since 2021.
• $130 million has also flowed into the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, indicating an increase in investors buying assets in the downturn.

An Unusual Day with More Gainers

• The unusual phenomenon of more gainers during the recent downturn suggests the possibility of a correction centered on large-cap tech stocks.

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Fear Index and Market Sentiment

• The VIX (fear index) is stable without significant changes, reflecting that risks have not broadened across the market.

Growth of TSMC and Greater China Tech Companies

• Investment sentiment towards major semiconductor companies like TSMC has turned positive.
• ByteDance announced a $1.2 billion investment, demonstrating the continued investment in AI.

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Market Experts' Analysis

• Positive View: AI efficiency will foster new demand, contrary to short-term concerns, and is expected to expand the necessity of materials and semiconductor chips in the long run.
• Negative View: Some experts warn of an AI investment bubble and GPU deflation, mentioning the possibility that companies like Nvidia might have to adjust their overly high performance expectations.

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Key CEO Statements

1. Sam Altman: DeepSeek is an excellent model, but not a variable that will drastically reduce front-end industry demand.
2. Satya Nadella: As AI efficiency increases, both consumers and businesses are likely to adopt more AI solutions.
3. Elon Musk: No significant changes are expected in AI development and equipment purchase plans.

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Nvidia and the AI Market Outlook

Investment Sentiment and Conclusion

• Nvidia's stock price has declined in the short term, but mid- to long-term growth potential still exists depending on front-end AI demand and CapEx increases.
• The arms race among big tech companies is considered a factor that strengthens the sustainability of the AI semiconductor market.

Short-Term Investment Strategy

• Given the market sentiment worsening, it is necessary to consider short-term corrections but also to pay attention to the opportunity for long-term demand increases from increased AI efficiency.

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< Summary >

1. Nasdaq and major big tech stocks have rebounded from recent declines.
2. AI efficiencies, such as with DeepSeek, have raised concerns about a decrease in demand for GPUs and AI infrastructure, but in the long run, they are likely to drive the adoption of more AI solutions.
3. Big tech CEOs have indicated that there will be no changes in AI-related CapEx investments.
4. Increased ETF fund inflows and a stable fear index demonstrate that the market is not gripped by sudden panic.
5. The long-term growth potential of the AI market remains valid.

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[More…]

1. Nasdaq Rise and Changes in AI Efficiency
2. Nvidia and DeepSeek: The Future of the Market

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