US Stock Market Trends Summary and AI-Based Industry Analysis

Tech Stock Rally and Nasdaq Surge

The US stock market overcame the previous day's decline, showing a tech-led rally.
The Nasdaq rose by more than 2%, with major AI-related stocks successfully rebounding thanks to bargain hunting.

AI Theme and NVIDIA's Soaring Stock

Chinese AI startup 'DeepSeek' attracted market attention by announcing the development of high-performance AI models at a low cost.
NVIDIA alleviated AI spending concerns in a single day, causing its stock to surge nearly 9% and reach $128.
NVIDIA emphasized that AI model inference requires GPUs and high-performance networking as essential components.
DeepSeek is challenging the existing AI investment trends led by established companies and has received positive market evaluations for its cost-effective AI model development.

Changes in the AI Ecosystem and Impact on Big Tech Companies

Big tech companies such as Google and Microsoft are continuing to lead the expansion of the AI market with large-scale AI investments, but there are also doubts about the costs and structure.
As AI becomes more democratized and efficient, cost reductions could lead to wider applications of AI by various companies.
Software-related AI stocks, such as Salesforce, are receiving positive evaluations due to the increased accessibility of AI.

Tesla: AI Business and Future Outlook

Tesla has garnered market expectations with the announced launches of 'robotaxis' and 'humanoid robots.'
Analysts such as Dan Ives have assessed that Tesla's innovative changes in the AI business could potentially lead to a doubling of its market capitalization.
Brokerages are significantly raising Tesla's target stock price, anticipating the realization of AI technology's potential.

Big Tech Earnings Announcements and Market Expectations

Earnings announcements from major big tech companies, including Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta, are scheduled, which are considered crucial factors in determining market direction.
In particular, whether Microsoft's continuous AI investment performance will be reflected in earnings is a key issue.
Bitcoin is continuing its positive trend along with the possibility of a global economic trend shift, and its potential use as a national asset is being discussed in some emerging countries.

Industry-Specific Reactions

Defense industry stocks have seen gains due to strong performance, but some airline and auto manufacturers' stocks have declined due to earnings forecasts.
The electric vehicle market tends to focus on sales and cost concerns due to tariffs and policy changes.

Summary

The US stock market is showing volatility, led by the revival of AI technology stocks and big tech companies.
The issues surrounding NVIDIA and DeepSeek were central to the market, and global AI market growth is expected.
Earnings announcements from Tesla and Microsoft are expected to significantly influence the future market direction.

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Tesla Stock Today, Q4 Earnings Announcement, and Market Outlook

Tesla Stock Status

Tesla's current stock price is $398.00, up 0.24%.
It has seen a 6.13% decrease over the past week and a 13.89% decrease over the past month.
On the other hand, it has increased by 81.1% over the past six months, maintaining a positive outlook in the long term.
Year-to-date in 2023, it has decreased by -1.42%, and it needs to increase by approximately 22.72% to surpass its previous high of $488.54.

Q4 Earnings Announcement and Key Points to Watch

Announcement Time:

US Central Time: January 30, 4:30 PM
Korean Time: January 31, 7:30 AM

Tesla will discuss its growth strategy and outlook for 2025 along with its Q4 earnings. However, Wall Street has largely negative reactions to Tesla's earnings announcement, particularly mentioning the possibility of lower-than-expected evaluations regarding sales profitability and autonomous driving technology plans.

Key Points:

Sales Profitability:
- There's speculation that Tesla's per-vehicle revenue rate may have decreased, even as the company achieves its vehicle sales targets.
- Some investors analyze that promotional and discount strategies may have impacted profitability.
Autonomous Driving Technology:
- Policy factors from the Trump administration and changes in regulatory credits are raising concerns that they might be negative for the market.
- The possibility of delaying or canceling the 2025 robotaxi launch plan is amplifying market anxiety.

Investment Views on Selling and Buying

Negative Analysis:
Needham and Morningstar predict a stock price decline of over 56%, suggesting that Tesla stock could continue on a downward trend.
Their target stock price is approximately $175, warning of a potential crash compared to the current price.
Positive Analysis:
Analyst Logan Ge argues that a post-earnings drop could be a buying opportunity.
In particular, they evaluate long-term growth in the energy business, autonomous driving initiatives, and infrastructure expansion as positive factors.

Most Notable Indicators:

Vehicle Delivery Volume:
- Status of the Model Q release
- Whether expected goals are being met.
Energy Sector Growth:
- Revenue growth in energy storage and energy generation sectors.

Rumors and Noteworthy Additional Issues

Anticipated Launch of Autonomous Driving Services in China:
There is speculation that Tesla may commercialize its autonomous FSD in China before the United States, possibly before 2025.
- According to inside sources at Tesla, testing in China is ongoing, with the first launch expected in 2025.
- If the Chinese announcement proves true, it could put pressure on the US government.

Tesla's Future and Market Reaction

Analysts are regarding Tesla's 2025 Q outlook as a key issue.
- Wall Street has a cautious stance on Tesla's outlook.
- Changes to or delays in key product plans in 2025 could greatly impact investor sentiment.
Positive Scenario:
- If the release of Model Q and a clear announcement of the autonomous robotaxi launch plan for 2025 occur, a positive breakthrough in stock price is expected.
Negative Scenario:

- If the 2025 autonomous driving announcement is canceled or delayed, a large-scale stock price crash is possible.

< Summary >

Tesla's Q4 earnings announcement and 2025 outlook will play a critical role in the stock's direction.
The possibility of launching autonomous driving in China before the US will act as a new variable.
Wall Street is maintaining a cautious stance due to the possibility of lower-than-expected sales and margins.
Positive views also suggest that if a sell-off occurs, it should be seen as a long-term investment opportunity.
Critically, vehicle delivery volume and energy sector growth will be key variables in the stock outlook.

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