US-Korea Alliance: Trump Era Strategy Shift

2023 January FMC Review and Major Company Earnings Analysis

1. Key Review of the FMC Meeting:

1.1 Potential Changes in Interest Rate Policy:

The phrase related to the 2% inflation target was removed.
While Chairman Powell denied it, some interpreted it as an indirect signal regarding potential interest rate cuts.
This suggests the need to discuss future economic growth and interest rate volatility together.

The Fed withdrew from the NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System).
This could be a decision influenced by former President Trump's policy direction.
Diminishing the importance of climate issues is a potential factor that could exacerbate geopolitical conflicts and border disputes.

Chairman Powell stated that he has no objection to the development and innovation of cryptocurrencies.
This is a positive signal for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, implicitly suggesting potential support.

2. Earnings Announcements of Major Companies:

2.1 Tesla:

Earnings Summary:
- Revenue: $25.7B, falling short of the estimated $27.2B.
- Operating profit was also low at $1.58B.
- Automotive revenue decreased by approximately 10%.
- Energy revenue doubled ($1.4B -> $3.1B), but accounts for only 10% of the total.
Key Points:
- Reduction in vehicle production costs is positive.
- Model Y has received positive feedback due to its new design and high demand.
- Mass production of the Cybertruck (2026) and news of mass production of FSD (Full Self Driving) and robots (Optimus) in 2025 highlight future growth potential.

2.2 Meta:

Earnings Summary:
- Presented the potential to reach over 1 billion people by personalizing AI services.
- Emphasized its commitment to investing in its own AI infrastructure and plans to continue utilizing deep learning models.
- The DeepSeek case has increased expectations for cost reduction and highlighted the importance of AI software.
Future Strategy:
- Strategy to enhance Meta's competitiveness by strengthening its own LLM (Large Language Model).
- Expecting a recovery in revenue and margins after 2025.

2.3 Microsoft:

Earnings Summary:
- Share price fell 5% immediately after the announcement.
- Slower growth than expected.
- Aiming for a long-term lead in the AI field by continuing investments in OpenAI and cloud computing.
Key Issues:
- Possible pressure and regulation related to OpenAI and DeepSeek.
- Exploring various policy directions to maintain U.S. leadership in AI technology.

3. NVIDIA and Deep Learning Issues:

NVIDIA's stock price has rebounded after a sharp recent decline due to the potential for recovery based on AI performance.
The controversy over DeepSeek's use of OpenAI source data is being used as a tool of pressure between the U.S. and China, increasing geopolitical tensions.
Considered a key event that will impact U.S. technological dominance and investment direction.

4. Jensen Huang's Criticism of Samsung Electronics:

Jensen Huang's statement that he does not trust Samsung Electronics' HBM (HBM3) process.
This is a risk that could damage the reliability and global influence of Samsung Electronics' semiconductor business.

< Summary >

The 2023 FMC suggests a potential policy direction revision, indicating a deepening of cryptocurrency and geopolitical conflicts.
Tesla's growth potential still relies on future projects (FSD, robots).
Meta and Microsoft are exploring growth opportunities through deep learning and LLM (AI model)-based investments.
NVIDIA and Samsung Electronics are at a turning point in technological processes and AI market competitiveness.

[More…]

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– [속보효] 중국발 딥시크? 뭐 어쩔까? 미국 증시 캐리하는 테슬라와 메타

2024~2028 Tesla Vision: Autonomous Driving, AI, Robotics, and the Future

2024: Peak Production and Breakthrough in Autonomous Driving

Vehicle Production and Sales Performance: In 2024, Tesla achieved a record of producing and selling 2 million vehicles annually. Notably, the Model Y became the best-selling vehicle of all types worldwide.
Autonomous Driving Innovation: Autonomous driving technology has made significant strides, transitioning from testing phases to stable market services. Elon Musk emphasized that autonomous driving technology is the key factor that will increase Tesla’s value tenfold.
- "Full Self-Driving (FSD)" is gradually expanding globally, and in June of this year, the first 'driverless autonomous driving' service will be commercialized in Austin, Texas.
- The economic potential of autonomous driving is predicted to increase operational vehicle time from the current 10 hours/week to approximately 50 hours or more.

Key Investments: AI, Robotics, and Manufacturing Infrastructure

Expansion of AI and Learning Technologies:
- Introduction of the 'Cortex Training Cluster' at the Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, accelerating the learning of autonomous driving technology.
- Tesla’s AI technology is expanding beyond simple autonomous driving into various fields.
Optimus Humanoid Robot:
- Optimus is being developed as the world's first robot capable of performing precise tasks at a human-like level (e.g., sewing, playing the piano).
- Elon Musk mentioned that Optimus has the potential to exceed $10 trillion in long-term revenue and eventually surpass the total value of Tesla.

2025: The Most Important Year in Tesla's History

Tesla plans to fully commercialize "Full Self-Driving AI," demonstrating the practical value of autonomous vehicles and expanding consumer trust.
This is expected to lead to the consideration of expanded licensing offers, potentially causing a surge in requests for Tesla's technology adoption from the global automotive industry.
- It can be seen as a "threatening situation" where competitors could fall behind in the market if they do not license Tesla's autonomous driving technology.

2026~2028: Explosive Growth and Strengthening of Technological Systems

Mass Production of Optimus:
- Based on feedback from the initial model, mass production is set to begin by 2026, with the potential to produce up to 100 million units annually.
- Creating an innovative robot ecosystem that will either replace or complement the human labor market.
Battery Packs and Energy Solutions:
- Addressing the increasing demand for batteries across stationary applications and mobile applications (electric vehicles).
- Expanding battery plants in Shanghai and other regions.

Key Message: Business Value and Industrial Innovation

Tesla aims to achieve "overwhelming superiority," exceeding its current global No.1 position in corporate valuation through autonomous driving and Optimus.
All new technologies, including AI, batteries, and robots, are being developed under new supply chain and design paradigms different from traditional automotive manufacturing.

< Summary >

Tesla achieved record production and sales in 2024, making the Model Y the world's best-selling vehicle.

Technological breakthroughs have been made focusing on autonomous driving AI and the Optimus robot, which will lead to commercialization in 2025 and mass production in 2026~2028.

The Optimus humanoid robot will become a long-term source of revenue for Tesla, and the licensing of autonomous driving technology will bring innovation to the global automotive industry.

2025 will be the most important year in Tesla’s history, where technological advancements will generate unprecedented economic value.

[More…]

*YouTube Source: [허니잼의 테슬라와 일론]

– 테슬라 어닝콜 핵심 부분 한영자막. 망한 어닝, 오르는 주가? 그 답은 여기에!

Okay, here's the English translation of the text, maintaining the original formatting:

Trump's Pressure for Interest Rate Cuts and Analysis of the Background

1. Why Did Trump Want Interest Rate Cuts?

The reason Trump strongly demanded the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates is, simply put, due to economic stimulus and his own political achievements.
Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for businesses, leading to increased investment and employment, and consumers can also increase spending through loans, further boosting the economy.
Trump specifically aimed to maximize economic growth during his term and strengthen his political base through it.

2. The Fed's Position: Why They Couldn't Cut Rates?

Inflation (Price Increases): While Trump's policies can boost the economy in the short term, there is a concern that excessive currency inflow could lead to a sharp rise in inflation again.
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Policy Goals: The Fed pursues a "2% inflation target." However, recent inflationary pressures are high, and lowering interest rates would exacerbate concerns about rising prices.
Economic Indicator Stability: Currently, the employment situation is stable, and consumption is robust. In this situation, the need for interest rate cuts is relatively low.

3. Trump's Complex Motives: The Calculus Behind Interest Rate Cut Pressure

Trump's demand for interest rate cuts is not solely aimed at economic stimulus. There is a political calculation behind it as well.
1. Providing Justification to Criticize the Fed
  - If the Fed does not cut interest rates as Trump demands and the economy stagnates, Trump can use this as a basis to criticize that "the economy failed because of Powell."
2. Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario
  - If the economy stabilizes without stagnation, Trump's statements will no longer be mentioned. In other words, Trump's demand for interest rate cuts is a political asset for preparing for a "low-probability worst-case scenario."

4. Correlation Between Trump's Policies and the Economic Situation

Characteristics of Trump's Economic Policies:
- Aggressive Economy: Actively inject money to boost the economy and push for tariff and tax cuts.
- Deregulation: Encourage individuals and businesses to use more funds by easing lending regulations.
However, such an aggressive economy has a major drawback: "the possibility of causing inflation." In particular, some factors such as oil prices and tariff policies can be price-increasing factors.
Global Connectivity:

- Trump's policies prioritize the growth of the U.S. economy and lead to strategies that induce economic slowdowns in competing countries such as Europe and China (imposing tariffs, restricting exports, etc.).
- However, if the global economic recession is prolonged, the United States is also likely to suffer directly and indirectly.

5. Future Outlook for Interest Rate Policy: U.S.-China Trade War and Economic Uncertainty

Market experts believe that further interest rate cuts will be difficult for the time being. This is due to continued inflationary pressures and still-robust economic indicators.
In particular, Trump's proposed tariff and oil price adjustment policies are more likely to stimulate inflation rather than alleviate it. From the Fed's perspective, if interest rates are lowered hastily in this situation, there is a concern that additional economic shocks will occur.

6. Trump's Political Advantages and Economic Dilemmas

He is emphasizing economic growth resulting from his policies while reinforcing the narrative that "all other economic problems are due to the Fed."
This is a very advantageous position politically. In a successful economic situation, it can be attributed to his achievements, and in the event of failure, it can be blamed on the Fed or the Democratic Party.
On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that Trump's calculations could lead to "increased debt in the United States" and "inflation risks" in the long term.

7. Future Changes in the Global Economic Model

Trump's "America First" policy aims to actually restructure the global supply chain centered around the United States.
It is interpreted as an intention to induce increased investment and employment in the United States while slowing down the economies of other countries to create a unique boom only for the U.S. economy.
However, since the global economy is highly interdependent, it is questionable whether such a strategy will be sustainable in the long term.

< Summary >

Trump demanded interest rate cuts to maximize his political interests and economic achievements, but the cuts were not realized due to the Fed's inflation concerns.
This is also linked to Trump's intention to form a structure where he can blame the Fed or promote his achievements depending on the economic situation.
Interest rate cuts are difficult in the short term, and it remains to be seen how Trump's policies will affect the U.S. economy and global markets in the long term.

[More…]

"US Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Policy"
https://Next-Korea.com?s=interestrate
"Secrets of Trump's Economic Policy"
https://Next-Korea.com?s=economy

*YouTube Source: [Jun’s economy lab]

– 트럼프가 파월에게 금리를 내리라고 하는 이유

Title: US Forces Korea, the ROK-US Alliance, and Changing World Order: Korea's Reality and Response Strategies

1. The Essence and Current Value of the ROK-US Alliance

History of the ROK-US Alliance
The ROK-US alliance began with the Mutual Defense Treaty in 1953 and has played a crucial role in deterring North Korean threats.
U.S. support during the Korean War helped protect South Korea as a free democracy and became the foundation for economic growth and security.
Current Value of the ROK-US Alliance
The ROK-US alliance is no longer just about North Korea.
The U.S. sees South Korea as a key strategic and military base for checking China and maintaining its influence in Asia.
The presence of USFK in South Korea provides the U.S. with significant deterrent power in Asia and reduces military pressure on China's northeastern region.
Strategic Importance of Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek

The current USFK, relocated to Pyeongtaek, aligns with the U.S. strategy to enhance mobility and global reach.
The Pyeongtaek base serves as a core site for pre-positioning forces and equipment for immediate response in case of emergency.

Trump's Case and Defense Cost Negotiations
President Trump, emphasizing a "transaction-focused approach," strongly insisted that South Korea should bear more of the costs of USFK.
The existing costs borne by South Korea (approximately 1 trillion won) sufficiently supported the operation of USFK, but the excessive demands caused controversy.
South Korea has already provided extensive support by spending some of the highest defense cost sharing in the world and investing in facilities such as Camp Humphreys.
U.S. Calculation
Trump's logic was simple: a transactional approach to managing alliances by saying, "Pay more money."
However, withdrawing USFK would damage the U.S.'s Asia strategy, actually resulting in greater losses for the U.S. military.

3. South Korea's Position in the US-China Hegemony Struggle

Center of US-China Hegemony Competition: South Korea's Strategic Value
The conflict between the U.S. and China is intense on economic, military, and diplomatic fronts.
In particular, the possibility of conflict at sea (South China Sea, Taiwan Strait) is increasing, highlighting the importance of USFK's presence.
USFK serves as a major deterrent force that balances Asia, placing a significant burden on China.
Building a ROK-US-Japan Cooperation System and Our Role
The Biden administration has recently tried to build a strong cooperation triangle in East Asia by strengthening the ROK-US-Japan trilateral military alliance.
While cooperation mechanisms such as military training and intelligence sharing have been strengthened, the issue of past history with Japan remains unresolved.

4. Potential Withdrawal of USFK: Reality and Alternatives

USFK Withdrawal? Low Probability, But Preparedness is Needed
Realistically, USFK withdrawal is unlikely as it would undermine the deterrence against North Korea and China.
However, if a person with a transactional and unilateral mindset like Trump is re-elected, or if public opinion in the U.S. shifts toward reducing alliance responsibilities, uncertainty could increase.
Need to Strengthen Our Independent National Defense
In preparation for the extreme scenario of USFK withdrawal, we must strengthen our independent national defense capabilities.
There is a need for systematic reorganization of independent defense through expansion of the defense industry, introduction of advanced weapons, and strengthening internal unity.

5. Trumpism, Changes in the Global Order, and Korea's Challenges

Uncertainty of the Trumpism and the Multipolar Era
Trump, contrary to the slogan "Make America Great Again," weakened U.S. leadership.
He fueled distrust among allies and caused confusion in the global economic and security systems.
This is not just Trump’s personal issue, but it symbolizes the confusion of the world's multipolar and apolar era.
Korea's Response Direction
Based on past experiences of successful economic growth and democratization, South Korea has much room to wisely and cleverly overcome political, security, and economic crises.
We must view the confusion of the current era as growing pains and use it as an opportunity to achieve better national development and strengthen national power.

< Summary >

The ROK-US alliance plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance of power between the U.S. and China in Asia, beyond just North Korea.
Trump's defense cost-sharing controversy caused conflict within the ROK-US alliance, but USFK's presence remains a critical deterrent force in the US-China hegemony competition.
While the ROK-US-Japan cooperation system is being strengthened, South Korea must establish its own independent national defense and strategy.
In the midst of Trumpism and global confusion, South Korea must strengthen its diplomatic and security strategies based on its experience of achieving democratization and economic growth.