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IMF 2025 Economic Outlook: Changing Global Economic Environment and Our Response

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1. Overview of the IMF 2025 Economic Report

• According to the recent IMF 2025 economic report, the existing economic rules and cycles are disappearing, and a transition to a new economic cycle is being analyzed.

• Key messages:

  1. The global economy will no longer maintain the existing order and will take on a form of "Divergence."
  2. Uncertainty and asymmetrical growth patterns will be the characteristics of the new economic phase.

• This report suggests that the world economy is undergoing structural changes and is entering a distinctly different flow after the Post-Pandemic.

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2. End of the Economic Cycle and a New Beginning

Impact of the Pandemic

• The economic phase (2020-2024) caused by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has entered the final stage, and a new economic cycle is predicted to begin from 2025.

• The growth rate that had surged in the short term due to the base effect of the pandemic has slowed down, but economic constraints and inflationary pressures in major economies still remain.

Resurgence of Inflation

• Although the inflation rate has been adjusting since the pandemic, high inflation is resurging in some countries.
• In the case of Europe, the rise in natural gas prices is representative, and the Russia-Ukraine war and supply issues in the energy market have had a significant impact.

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3. Growth Outlook by Major Economic Zone

United States

• The US economy maintains solid growth and proves "US Exceptionalism" once again.
• The IMF has revised the US growth rate for 2025 upward to 2.7%, which acts as a unique strength for the US in contrast to the global low growth trend.

Eurozone (Europe)

• The Eurozone is expected to see a significant slowdown in growth.
• Major European countries, including Germany, are expected to see "zero growth" or a slowdown in 2025.

China

• The Chinese economy is entering a trend of continuous growth slowdown.
• It will not maintain its past high growth of 6-7%, but will fall to a growth rate of about 4.3%.

Emerging Markets

• Some emerging countries, such as India and Indonesia, are expected to increase their growth rate, similar to the US.
• However, due to "Divergence," most emerging countries are expected to see mixed growth (a form that is divided into growing countries and stagnant countries).

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4. Impact of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy

• The US is likely to maintain relatively high interest rates and continue its strong dollar trend.
• Europe and emerging countries are likely to maintain accommodative monetary policies, which is expected to accelerate the concentration of global capital in the US.

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5. Key Challenges and Response Strategies

1. Accurate Economic Analysis: Monitor reports from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank, and set investment directions according to global economic trends.
2. Portfolio Management: To secure profitability in a divergence phase, diversify the portfolio and disperse economic risks.
3. Preparation for the Future: Strengthening investment in US-based tech and R&D-focused companies is still attractive.

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< Summary >

1. The IMF emphasizes that a new economic cycle will begin from 2025, with divergence and uncertainty as key keywords.
2. The global economy has entered a low-growth phase due to the aftereffects of the pandemic and structural changes.
3. The US shows an exceptional trend with continued growth, while China and Europe see a slowdown in growth.
4. Global capital movement will be reorganized around monetary policy and the strong dollar trend.
5. Data-based analysis and diversification of investment strategies are necessary to respond to economic changes.

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[More…]

• US Economic Outlook: Strong Dollar and Growth Factors
• Divergence: A New Phase of the Global Economy

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

– 관세전쟁 본격화… IMF의 경고 “2025년 불확실성 극도로 고조된다” [경읽남 179화]