1. Issues of the USFK Stationing Cost-Sharing
- Former President Trump argued that South Korea should bear more of the cost for the USFK stationing in Korea to protect it.
- Previously, he demanded a cost-sharing of $5 billion, but now he mentions $10 billion.
- Even at the current level, South Korea bears a significant amount of expenses. For example, South Korea has already spent about $10 billion on the construction of Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek alone.
- Interestingly, USFK does not even use all of the current cost-sharing, and some remains unused.
2. USFK Withdrawal and the Importance of the Alliance
- Trump mentioned the withdrawal of USFK, but the presence of USFK is deeply related to major US national interests.
- USFK serves not only as a deterrent to North Korea but also as a key strategic position to check China.
- The Pyeongtaek base is used as a hub that facilitates the rapid deployment of troops to various Asian countries.
3. The US, Japan, and Asian Dynamics
- Japan maintains a strong alliance with the US on the surface, but internally has emotionally complex feelings towards the US. This stems from the experience of Japan's economic recession after the Plaza Accord.
- If the withdrawal of USFK becomes a reality, demands for the withdrawal of USFJ may arise in Japan as well. This risks leading to the loss of US influence throughout Asia.
4. Trump's View of Alliances: A Transaction-Centered Approach
- Trump views alliances as "transactions" and argues that one-sided alliances are unnecessary.
- This signifies a shift from the traditional view of alliances to a "quid pro quo contractual relationship."
- Regarding North Korea's nuclear issue, he mentioned the possibility of a practical approach such as a "nuclear freeze."
5. Denuclearization and Trump's Strategy
- Trump shows an attitude of realistically recognizing North Korea's nuclear weapons and suggests the possibility of accepting limited agreements such as a "nuclear freeze."
- This contrasts with the traditional CVID (Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization) approach.
- The international community also implies an increasingly relaxed policy regarding the North Korean nuclear issue.
6. Global Uncertainty in the Multipolar Era
- After the Cold War, the United States reigned as the absolute power in the world, but now it is changing to a multipolar era. This intensifies ambiguous competition and conflicts between powerful nations.
- In the midst of global uncertainty, the emergence of strong leaders (strongmen) is prominent. Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping symbolize this trend.
7. Direction of the ROK-US Alliance and South Korea's Diplomatic Challenges
- The ROK-US alliance is necessary, but now a proactive and realistic perspective is needed rather than unilateral dependence.
- Especially regarding the North Korean issue, a strategy that considers both military power and diplomatic autonomy is needed.
- A realistic approach is required in which South Korea gives and takes what is due between the US and South Korea. For example, strengthening autonomy by securing South Korea's right to enrich and reprocess nuclear material.
< Summary >
- The USFK cost-sharing dispute shows the changing aspects of maintaining the alliance and the transaction-centered relationship.
- The North Korean nuclear issue can be shifted to a realistic approach (nuclear freeze and partial negotiations).
- In the era of global multipolarity, South Korea must strengthen its autonomy and proactive diplomacy.
[More…]
1. Trump and the Future of Alliances
https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%8A%B8%EB%9F%BC%ED%94%84
2. Re-examination of the ROK-US Alliance
https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%95%9C%EB%AF%B8%EB%8F%99%EB%A7%B9
*YouTube Source: [머니인사이드]
– 트럼프의 도움 요청. 미국은 한국 없인 아무것도 못한다 (조한범 박사 풀버전)
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