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AI Investment Strategies and Global Economic Outlook

1. AI Investment Strategies: Deep Seek and Large Tech Companies

🟢 The Impact of Deep Seek and the Potential for AI Growth

Deep Seek is one of the key events that has a big impact on the AI industry. It is expected that Deep Seek will accelerate the development of AI technology faster than previously expected. This marks the beginning of a rapid transition in the AI cycle, from hardware to software.

🟢 AI Investment Strategies: Transitioning from Hardware to Software

During the IT bubble of 1995-2000, it took about 10 years for the Internet industry to shift from hardware to software. However, the AI industry is expected to follow the same process much faster, with a transition from hardware to software likely to occur within approximately 7-8 years.

🟢 Outlook for Large Tech Stocks (Nvidia, Tesla, Oracle, Broadcom)

Currently, large tech companies such as Nvidia, Tesla, Oracle, and Broadcom are actively investing in AI-related hardware and software. Considering the growth rate of AI and the investment activities of these companies, large tech stocks related to AI are still considered promising investment opportunities.

2. US vs. China: Tariff Policies and Economic Impact

🟡 Changes in US Tariff Policy

The increase in US tariffs has a significant impact on the global economy. The existing tariff rate of 3.1% has risen to around 10%, and if former President Trump’s pledges are implemented, it could potentially increase to a maximum of 17.7%. This could lead to higher prices within the US and exacerbate inflationary pressures.

🟡 Possibility of a Chinese Economic Crisis

China currently faces the potential for a financial crisis due to real estate debt issues and economic slowdown. The gap between its foreign exchange reserves (approximately $3.2 trillion) and external debt (approximately $2.5 trillion) is narrowing. If foreign exchange reserves fall below external debt, the likelihood of a full-blown financial crisis increases. However, the Chinese government is continuing its efforts to respond to the crisis by adopting a European-style gradual resolution approach.

🟡 Possibility of a Financial Crisis Occurring within the Next 2 Years

If a financial crisis fully materializes in China, there is a high probability of an economic recession until 2028. However, the accelerated AI growth cycle also presents the possibility of a sharp recovery after a short-term recession.

3. Palantir and AI Investment Outlook

🔵 Palantir’s Earnings Announcement and Stock Price Increase

Palantir recently announced earnings that exceeded expectations, causing its stock price to rise by 24% in a single day. While it has surged more than 400% since last year, some investors are raising concerns about the stock price being at a high point due to high valuations (PSR 50x, PER 150x).

🔵 Comparison with Tesla: Growth Stock Investment Approach

Tesla also had poor performance before 2019, but its stock price increased by 3,250% over the following 5 years as profitability improved. Palantir also began generating profits in 2023 and currently possesses strong competitiveness in the AI software market. Considering this, Palantir’s stock price likely has significant room for further growth.

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< Summary >

• Deep Seek: Acts as a catalyst to promote AI investment expansion, expected to rapidly transition from hardware to software.
• Outlook for Large Tech Stocks: Nvidia, Tesla, Oracle, Broadcom, etc., are major beneficiaries of AI growth.
• US-China Trade War: The increase in US tariffs triggers inflation, and the Chinese economic crisis has the potential to escalate into a financial crisis within 2 years.
• Palantir Investment Strategy: As an AI company that turned profitable in 2023, it has a high potential for future stock price appreciation.

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[More…]

✅ AI Investment Outlook 2024 → AI Investment
✅ US-China Economic War and Possibility of a Financial Crisis → China Economy

*YouTube Source: [유동원의 성공투자]

– The Market Outlook: Trade War Risks & DeepSeek Emergence