Possibility of Autonomous Driving Technology Partnership Between Tesla and Ford

Tesla Stock Trends

Recent Tesla stock prices have shown a continuous downward trend, recording volatility of -5%, -3%, -1.6%, etc.
Down -6.49% over a week, -8.94% over a month, and entering a correction phase after rising 86.56% over 6 months.
Recorded -7.31% from January 1, 2025, to the present.

The current situation can be seen as a phase where stock price correction appears as a large volume of sell-offs occurs after Tesla’s stock price has risen sharply.

Ford’s Q4 Earnings Announcement and Problems

Ford announced earnings for Q4 that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations (both EPS and sales were better than expected).
Good performance in internal combustion engine and commercial vehicle divisions (Ford Blue, Ford Pro).
On the other hand, the electric vehicle division recorded a margin of -98.1%, showing a severe deficit situation.
Losses in the electric vehicle division in 2024 recorded a shocking figure of -131.8%.
Losses in the electric vehicle division in 2024 were $510 million.

In particular, Ford is showing a structural problem in which losses increase as more electric vehicles are sold.

Wall Street’s Assessment and Concerns

The problem is that Ford is not profitable despite increased electric vehicle sales.
Even if the electric vehicle business continues to expand, it will be a significant burden in the current loss structure.
The estimated loss per unit is about $48,000 (approximately 65 million won).
It is time to reset Ford’s long-term direction.

Ford CEO’s Remarks and Changes in Autonomous Driving Strategy

Ford is currently operating Level 2 and Level 3 autonomous driving systems (BlueCruise).
Considering developing or partnering for Level 3 and 4 (fully autonomous driving) technology.
Weighing between in-house development and cooperation with external partners.
Ford is considering Tesla and Waymo in the Level 4 system.

Currently, Ford is contemplating whether to develop Level 4 autonomous driving technology on its own or collaborate with existing technology holders.

Comparison of Ford’s BlueCruise and Tesla FSD

BlueCruise: Available on limited specific roads (Blue Zones), requires an annual cost of $650.
Tesla Autopilot: Basically provided free of charge, with continuous software improvements in progress.
Ford customers are highly willing to use BlueCruise despite the fee.

Possibility of Autonomous Driving Partnership Between Tesla and Ford

Ford is considering collaborating with Tesla’s FSD (Full Self-Driving) or Waymo’s lidar-based autonomous driving.
In the case of Waymo technology, vehicle prices are expensive, over 140 million won.
Considering mass production potential and price competitiveness, Tesla FSD is a realistic choice.

Remarks on FSD License in Tesla’s Earnings Call

Elon Musk mentioned that several automotive companies are interested in the FSD license.
However, the plan is to provide licenses only to companies with mass production capabilities.
Accordingly, Ford’s partnership announcement is expected in the second half of 2025.

2025 Outlook and Events

Tesla Robotaxi scheduled to be released in June 2025.
Expect full-scale FSD license sales afterward.
There is a high possibility that Ford will be the first company to which Tesla provides a license.

The future landscape of the automotive industry is expected to change significantly depending on whether Ford collaborates with Tesla or builds its own autonomous driving system.

< Summary >

Tesla Stock Decline → Recent stock price correction due to increased sell-offs.
Ford Earnings Announcement → Internal combustion engine car performance is positive, but the electric vehicle division is in serious deficit.
Ford’s Autonomous Driving Concerns → Considering whether to develop Level 4 autonomous driving technology on its own or collaborate with Tesla/Waymo.
Tesla FSD License Possibility → Plans to provide only to companies with mass production capabilities, Ford is the most likely candidate.
2025 Outlook → High possibility of FSD license-related announcements after the Robotaxi launch in June.

Whether Tesla and Ford collaborate in the automotive market is expected to be a major issue.

[More…]

*YouTube Source: [오늘의 테슬라 뉴스]

– 테슬라 첫 FSD 라이센스, 포드와 계약하나? 포드 CEO FSD 결정이 임박했다! 테슬라 FSD 를 선택할수 밖에 없는 이유? 정확한 발표일자는 언제일까?

2024 KOSPI Outlook and Investment Strategy

KOSPI PR Decline and Past Pattern Analysis

There have been several instances in the past where the KOSPI’s forward PR fell below 9x.
On average, it did not stay for more than 4 months, with the longest period being 8 months in 2018.
It is expected to stay for about 4 months in 2024 before moving out of this range.

Global Investors’ Perception of the Korean Market

The Korean market is still undervalued to global investors.
There is a possibility that the US dollar will weaken and funds will leave if the US cuts interest rates and the economy slows down.
In this case, the possibility of funds flowing into the Korean and emerging markets will increase.

Domestic Stock Market Outlook

Investment Direction

Recommend sector-focused investment where there are opportunities even during economic slowdown.
AI software, bio, power infrastructure, shipbuilding, defense, and entertainment, etc.
The semiconductor (especially HBM) sector is expected to recover in the second half of the year.

AI Innovation and Investment Direction

Differences between DiSiq and Existing AI Models

Existing GPT and Gemini models are CPU-based single neural network processing methods.
DiSiq dramatically reduces costs and improves speed through processing by expert groups.
This leads to reduced AI service costs → increased AI utilization → increased need for AI infrastructure.

AI and IT Company Investment Strategies

Expect benefits for software AI (SaaS-based AI service companies).
Pay attention to companies such as Apple and Samsung Electronics as AI-embedded devices increase.
Platform operators such as Naver and Kakao will also benefit from AI-based recommendation systems.

Global Market Investment Strategies

US Stock Market

Many companies leading AI innovation are concentrated in the United States.
Recommend index investment through the US S&P 500.
The US market is likely to maintain long-term population growth, economic growth, and a strong dollar.

Korean Stock Market

There are many individual stock investment opportunities, and stock-specific volatility is expected to be high.
It is important to find opportunities in industries with solid demand even during economic slowdown (defense, shipbuilding, AI software, power infrastructure).

Recommended Sectors

Defense: Potential benefits from global arms expansion
Shipbuilding: Increased demand for LNG carriers and defense
Power Infrastructure: Increased power demand due to AI development
AI Services and Platforms: Naver, Kakao, and US SaaS companies
Bio: Benefit from China’s regulatory benefits and CDMO growth
Entertainment: Global growth in performance and recording industry

< Summary >

KOSPI PR below 9x stays for an average of 4 months and has the potential to recover.
The Korean market is undervalued, and funds may flow in if the US economy slows down and interest rates are cut.
The investment strategy is focused on individual stock investment, paying attention to AI, defense, shipbuilding, power infrastructure, and bio sectors.
AI innovation creates opportunities in the software and device markets.
The US market is still attractive from a long-term investment perspective, recommending investment centered on the S&P 500.

[More…]

“KOSPI Outlook 2024” → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%BD%94%EC%8A%A4%ED%94%BC
“AI Investment Strategy” → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=AI

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– 외국인 투자자 입장에서 전혀 매력이 없는 국장, 이대로 국장은 저무는 것일까ㅣ김태홍 그로쓰힐자산운용 대표 [2부]

US M2 Growth and Financial Market Changes

Acceleration of US M2 (Money Supply) Growth

The US M2 is an indicator that represents the money supply, released at the end of each month.
During 2022-2023, the M2 growth rate recorded negative values due to tightening policies.
Recently, the M2 growth rate has accelerated sharply, recording the largest increase in the past two years.
One of the main reasons is the anticipation of Trump’s financial deregulation.

Trump’s Financial Policies and Market Changes

The Fed is expected to freeze or lower interest rates, but the Trump administration can ease financial regulations through administrative actions.
Deregulation can effectively lead to liquidity expansion effects such as increased lending.
As companies find it easier to borrow money, more money circulates in the market.

Strength in Inflation Hedge Assets

Inflation concerns remain, leading to strength in inflation hedge assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Gold mining ETFs, silver ETFs, and blockchain ETFs have recorded high gains.
Coupled with geopolitical conflicts, defense stocks and food-related companies are also strong.

Increase in NASDAQ New Listings

NASDAQ is experiencing an increase in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings), with 170-200 companies waiting to be listed in the second half of this year.
This is because the new listing environment has improved due to Trump’s deregulation.
Companies in hot technology fields such as AI and fintech are preparing for IPOs.
This can be interpreted as a signal that the stock market atmosphere is positive.

Outlook for Strong Financial Stocks

Expectation of a rise in financial stocks due to financial deregulation.
Increased lending -> Increased bank lending profits -> Strength in financial stocks such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
Financial stocks ETF (XLF) is also a stock to watch.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency ETF Approval

Pro-cryptocurrency policy stance of the Trump administration.
Legislation to incorporate Bitcoin as a strategic asset is being pursued in each state (US state government).
Existing banking industry (Bank of America, etc.) is also preparing cryptocurrency-related services.
Various cryptocurrency ETFs are scheduled to be launched.

Conclusion: 2024 Financial Market Trends

Liquidity is expected to increase in the financial market due to the accelerated money supply in the US.
High possibility of strength in inflation hedge assets and financial stocks.
Increase in NASDAQ new listings -> Expectation of a booming IPO market.
It is necessary to pay attention to fintech and cryptocurrency-related stocks based on deregulation.
In the short term, risk management is required as there is a possibility of a tariff war and high volatility.

< Summary >

The US M2 growth rate has surged to the highest level in the last two years.
Trump’s expectations of financial deregulation are affecting the market.
Strength in inflation hedge assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Increase in NASDAQ IPOs -> Positive stock market outlook for companies.
Outlook for strong financial stocks (banks, fintech), typically JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
Increase in cryptocurrency and fintech-related bills and ETF launches.
Although there is a tariff war risk in the short term, financial stocks play a relatively safe haven role.