2024 U.S. Stock Market Analysis and Outlook

U.S. Stock Market Overview

The three major indices closed mixed in 2024, with market volatility increasing as corporate earnings announcements and concerns related to Trump's tariff policies were somewhat alleviated.

Semiconductor Industry Trends

Qualcomm

Q4 earnings exceeded market expectations, but shares fell by more than 3% due to the outlook for slower growth in license revenue this year.

AMD

Despite announcing better-than-expected earnings, shares fell by more than 3% due to profit-taking.

Big Tech Company Earnings Analysis

Amazon

Q4 Earnings:
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.86
- Revenue: $177.9 billion
- Cloud (AWS) Revenue: $28.88 billion (19% increase year-over-year)
Shares fell more than 3% in after-hours trading as future guidance fell short of market expectations.

Palantir

Rose nearly 10% on the day, recording $111.
Expanding data analysis software for government and private companies.
Q4 Revenue: $751 million (36% increase year-over-year)
Target Price Increase: Bank of America ($125), Wells Fargo ($120)

Tesla

Shares fell more than 1%, dropping to $374.
Decline in new car sales in California and German markets.
Decrease in electric vehicle market share (60% → 52.5%)

AI and Semiconductor Market

Nvidia

Rose to $128, marking a three-day winning streak.
Impact of Google's announcement of a $75 billion AI investment plan.
Expected to benefit from increased AI investments by big tech companies.

Broadcom

Expected increase in demand for AI semiconductors due to participation in Google's TPU development.

AMD

Adjusted AI semiconductor-related guidance, leading to a shift in investment flow to Nvidia.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin

Fell below $100,000 due to increased short-term volatility.
Potential for future increase due to the U.S. government's mention of the possibility of holding Bitcoin.

Other Individual Stock Trends

Altus Power

Shares rose 27% after entering into an agreement to be acquired at $5 per share.

Ford

Shares fell 7% after announcing 2025 earnings outlook.

Honeywell

Shares fell more than 6% after announcing a business split due to pressure from Elliott Fund.

Roblox

Plunged 11% due to poor Q4 earnings.

Lululemon

Shares rose more than 10% after announcing better-than-expected earnings.

< Summary >

U.S. stock market closed mixed, with semiconductor and big tech stocks experiencing significant price fluctuations based on earnings announcements.
Qualcomm and AMD fell after earnings announcements, while Palantir continued its strong performance.
Despite the growth of Amazon's AWS business, shares fell as guidance fell short of expectations.
Tesla's stock price adjusted due to a decrease in new car sales.
Nvidia and Broadcom have a positive outlook due to expectations of increased AI investment.
Bitcoin underwent a short-term correction, but there was mention of the possibility of government-level holdings.
Among individual stocks, Altus Power and Lululemon rose, while Ford and Roblox fell.

[More…]

Related Latest Articles

"Major U.S. Stock Market Issues and Investment Strategies" – Link
"AI Semiconductor Investment Outlook and Analysis of Key Companies" – Link

*YouTube Source: [미국주식하는인갠]

– 테슬라 주가 충격! 엔비디아, 팔란티어 진짜 상승한 이유는?

Trump and Elon Musk's Relationship: Potential Conflicts and Future Prospects

1. Current Relationship Between Trump and Elon Musk

Both Trump and Musk are figures with strong leadership and unique inclinations, sharing many similarities yet also possessing differences.
In particular, Musk wields significant influence in the technology and economic sectors by running Tesla, SpaceX, X (Twitter), and others.
As a Republican presidential candidate, Trump emphasizes economic revitalization and deregulation, aiming to create a favorable environment for businesspeople.
To date, the two have been sending positive signals to each other, demonstrating a cooperative stance.

2. Potential Conflict Factors

1) Political Stance Differences
Musk has engaged with the Democratic Party in the past and has shown inclinations to support candidates other than Trump within the Republican Party (e.g., Ron DeSantis).
Trump may be dissatisfied with this, and conflicts could arise if Musk opposes specific political issues.

2) Dogecoin and Financial Regulations
Trump has stated his position to ease cryptocurrency regulations during his presidential campaign, and Musk also favors policies that are friendly to Dogecoin and cryptocurrencies.
However, differences in opinion may arise regarding the usage plan of Dogecoin and future regulatory policies.
For instance, while Trump may generally support the cryptocurrency market, conflicts with Musk could occur if he intervenes in a specific manner.

3) Business Interest Differences
Musk's businesses (Tesla, SpaceX, X, etc.) are affected by government support and policy changes.
If the Trump administration pursues policies focused on pro-oil and traditional industries, conflicts with Musk, who emphasizes electric vehicles and eco-friendly energy, can be expected.

3. Utilization and Limitations of Dogecoin (Doge)

Currently, Dogecoin is scheduled to be operated temporarily in commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States on July 4, 2026.
Now, both Trump and Musk view Dogecoin and the cryptocurrency market positively and support deregulation policies,
but differences in opinion may arise regarding specific usage methods or legal issues.
In particular, conflicts may arise if Musk attempts to expand Dogecoin as a payment method for Tesla or if Trump intervenes in this matter.

4. Short-Term Cooperation, Long-Term Potential for Conflict

To date, Trump is unlikely to impede Musk's business model,
and rather, it appears that he will pursue policies favorable to Musk in terms of deregulation and economic growth.
However, both individuals have unpredictable styles, and relationships could be strained if personal emotions become involved.

< Summary >

Trump and Musk have shown mutually cooperative behavior to date,
and in particular, they share a common stance on Dogecoin and cryptocurrency deregulation.
However, due to factors such as political stance differences, business interests, and cryptocurrency utilization methods,
there is potential for conflict in the long term. While they currently have a cooperative relationship, there are many variables, and future relationship changes are noteworthy.

[More…]

Dogecoin Outlook Analysis and Utilization Plans
🔗 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%8F%84%EC%A7%80%EC%BD%94%EC%9D%B8

Trump's Election Strategy and Economic Policy Changes
🔗 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%8A%B8%EB%9F%BC%ED%94%84

*YouTube Source: [Jun’s economy lab]

– 트럼프와 일론 머스크 갈등??

Korean Real Estate Market Crisis: Changes in Commercial Real Estate and Housing Market

1. Current Situation of the Korean Real Estate Market

Housing Market: Decreased transaction volume, increased listings, surge in auction cases
Commercial Real Estate (Offices, Commercial Buildings): Potential for serious insolvency, though not often reported in the news
Interest Rate Hike and Change in Investment Sentiment: Lack of trust in government policies → Weakened purchasing sentiment

2. Changes in the Housing Market

Price Decline: Rapid decline in apartment prices that had soared in recent years (e.g., 1.2 billion → 600 million)
Gap Investment Problem: Existing investors are considering selling at a loss
Expansion of the Auction Market: Largest scale since the financial crisis (over 130,000 auction cases)
Increased Burden of "YOLO Investments" for Young People: Serious debt problems for those in their 20s and 30s

3. Crisis in Commercial Real Estate (Offices, Commercial Buildings)

Office Market: High possibility of a crisis at the end of this year or early next year (increased new supply in Yeouido and Gangnam)
Commercial Building Market: Decrease in self-employed individuals, increase in vacancies → Decreased demand for commercial real estate
Mortgage Loan Risk: Commercial building investors take out loans using their homes as collateral → If commercial buildings become insolvent, homes will also be hit in a chain reaction

4. Connection between the Global Real Estate Market and Korea

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Crisis: Worsening vacancy problems in San Francisco, LA, etc.
China's Large-Scale Real Estate Insolvency: Evergrande Group's debt of 13 trillion USD → Twice the size of the global financial crisis (subprime mortgage crisis)
Japan's Long-Term Real Estate Recession: Population decline, increase in vacant homes → Possibility of similar patterns in Korea

5. Structural Problems and Outlook

Population Decline & Economic Growth Slowdown: Real estate appreciation logic no longer applies
Limitations of Government Policies: Cannot be resolved with interest rate adjustments alone; collapse of credit creation structure
"Squid Game"-Style Real Estate Structure: Misalignment of interests among real estate investors, developers, and construction companies → Accelerated market collapse

< Summary >

The Korean real estate market shows clear signs of crisis with decreased transaction volume, price declines, and increased auctions.
The office and commercial building market may collapse before the housing market.
The global real estate market is also unstable, and there is a high possibility of it being connected to the crises in the U.S., China, and Japan.
Long-term real estate recession is possible due to population decline and economic growth slowdown.
The current real estate market structure is like "Squid Game," and ultimately, losses for many are expected to be inevitable.

[More…]

2024 Korean Real Estate Market Outlook
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%B6%80%EB%8F%99%EC%82%B0
Impact of Commercial Real Estate Crisis on the Housing Market
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%83%81%EC%97%85%EC%9A%A9

*YouTube Source: [머니인사이드]

– “현금 없으면 못 버틴다” 심각해진 한국 부동산 분위기 I 집값이 알고싶다🏠 (곽수종, 표영호, 한문도)

Elon Musk and the Attempt to Seize the US Government: Summary of Key Points

1. Elon Musk and the Trump Administration's Attempt to Seize the US Government

Elon Musk and his team are expanding their influence over key US government agencies.
Musk's organization 'Doge' is working to abolish public institutions under the guise of government efficiency.
The US Agency for International Development (USAID) budget is being frozen and a large-scale restructuring is being implemented.

2. USAID (US Agency for International Development) Budget Cuts and Their Impact

The US government has immediately frozen USAID's budget, suspending international media support programs.
NGOs and media outlets supporting independent media around the world are in disarray.
In 2023, USAID trained 6,200 journalists, supported 707 non-state media outlets, and sponsored 279 civic groups.
This measure reveals the connection between the media industry and public funding.

3. Government Budget Cuts and Political Background

The Trump administration is pursuing tax cuts for the wealthy and pushing for government spending cuts.
Potential cuts to Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare.
Plans to cut $1 trillion in spending without cutting the military budget.

4. Government Sponsorship of Media: Political Controversy

USAID pays subscription fees to some media outlets, such as 'Politico Pro.'
A total of $8 million has been used from the government budget to subscribe to Politico Pro.
Trump and Musk fuel conspiracy theories that "tax dollars are wasted on fake news media."
There is also an explanation that most of Politico's revenue comes from general corporate subscriptions.

5. Problematic Personnel Recruitment by the Doge Team

Musk's organization includes individuals who have made racist remarks.
Some young employees in their late teens and early twenties have access to classified government data.
Musk conducted a poll on Twitter regarding the dismissal of one of these employees.

6. Exclusion of Important Public Officials and Data Access Issues

Doge's employees have access to the US Treasury Department's systems and the Federal Personnel Management database.
Conversely, senior government officials are excluded from these systems.
A Democratic strategist describes this as an attempt at 'State Capture.'

7. Political Implications of Reducing International Aid and Media Support

Musk and Trump plan to abolish even government corruption investigation agencies.
As a result, investigations into Russian and Central Asian oligarchs may be suspended.
Reducing international media support may actually lead to a decrease in US soft power.

Framing global media and social security programs as 'wasteful' to justify austerity policies.
Musk and Trump try to bypass criticism of policies by shifting some budget cut agendas to the opposing camp.
A strategy to use controversy as a pretext for cutting overall government spending.

< Summary >

Elon Musk and the Trump administration are pursuing a strategy to reduce government agencies and ease regulations.
Freezing the US Agency for International Development (USAID) budget and suspending support for media and NGOs is causing international confusion.
Government support for the media is becoming controversial, and Trump and Musk are using it as a conspiracy theory.
Musk's team Doge is attempting to seize government agencies by hiring individuals who have made racist remarks.
Major government budget cuts are likely to affect social security programs and medical support.
All of these changes are linked to fiscal austerity policies to cut taxes for the wealthy.

[More…]

US Politics and Elon Musk's Expanding Influence
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%97%98%EB%A1%A0
Controversy over Media and Government Funding: Analysis of the Politico Case
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%96%B8%EB%A1%A0

*YouTube Source: [Novara Media]

– Elon Musk’s Freaky Minions Are Taking Over the US Government | #NovaraLIVE

2050 Economic Outlook and Challenges for the Korean Economy

1. The Essence and Importance of Economic Outlook

It's crucial to understand the logic within economic forecasts, not just see them as predictions.

Economic forecasts aren't about being right or wrong.
The economy is like a living organism, reacting and changing based on forecasts.
The important thing is to identify the logical basis of the forecasts and prepare response strategies.
We need to analyze the economy through real data and logic, not just sensational forecasts like "economic crisis."

2. What's More Important Than Whether an Economic Forecast is Right or Wrong

We may feel happy when an economic forecast is correct, but the important thing is "understanding the logic."
For example, we can pay attention to rising raw material prices through the forecast of inflation.
Investors should understand and respond to the basis of forecasts, not just the forecasts themselves.

3. Economic Forecasts and Investment Strategies

Many people wonder, "When should I invest?"
However, the important thing is not short-term investment timing, but understanding economic flows and logic.
The key is to learn "how to fish," not just being given fish.

4. What is an Economic Crisis?

The term "economic crisis" should not be used carelessly.
Economic difficulties exist at certain points in time, but this does not necessarily mean an economic crisis.
When discussing an economic crisis, the difference between a recession and an economic crisis must be clear.
Rather than interpreting an economic crisis negatively, it should be understood as part of the economic cycle.

5. Semiconductor Industry and the Future of the Korean Economy

Importance of the Semiconductor Industry

Semiconductors play a key role in the Korean economy.
It is an important industry accounting for 20% of exports and 20% of facility investment.
However, it is currently being evaluated as having taken the wrong direction.

Challenges of the Semiconductor Industry

The semiconductor market is divided into AI semiconductors and memory semiconductors.
Korea has been strong in the memory semiconductor market, but has fallen behind in the AI semiconductor market.
Securing competitiveness in the AI semiconductor market is the biggest challenge.
Cooperation with the United States and the relationship with NVIDIA will be important variables.

Competition between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

SK Hynix is currently strong in the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market.
Samsung Electronics is lagging behind, but is preparing a counterattack through cooperation with NVIDIA.
The results of this competition are likely to be released within the first quarter of 2025.

6. The Problem of Korean Companies Moving to the United States

The number of cases of Korean companies building production plants in the United States is increasing.
Due to the strengthening of the Trump administration's policies, the possibility of increasing production bases in the United States is high.
The problem is the potential for job and capital outflows in Korea.
The government needs to prepare a policy response to this, but there is a lack of a clear direction for this.

7. Economic Relations with China

The Korean economy is currently highly dependent on China.
Representative example: urea crisis → more than 97% imported from China.
If China restricts the supply of urea, the Korean economy will inevitably suffer a fatal blow.
Like this, Korea's core industries are dependent on Chinese raw materials and parts.
Therefore, appropriately coordinating economic relations with China is one of the government's biggest tasks.

8. Recession in the Self-Employment Sector

Due to changes in the population structure, people in their 70s are retiring and flocking to self-employment.
However, the self-employment market is already saturated, and sales declines are serious due to the economic recession.
Consumer sentiment is shrinking, with occupancy rates for accommodation facilities not being filled even at the end of the year.
Self-employed people are suffering huge blows due to the domestic economic recession.

< Summary >

Economic forecasts are not just simple predictions, but it is important to understand the logic of the forecasts.
Economic crises cannot be easily discussed, and recessions and crises must be distinguished.
The semiconductor industry is the core of the Korean economy, and competitiveness in the AI semiconductor market is an important task.
The relocation of Korean companies to the United States, economic relations with China, and the recession in the self-employment sector are key issues for the Korean economy.
The Korean government must clearly set the economic direction and prepare strategies to survive in global competition.