Trump's Strategic Reserve Assets and Bitcoin Market Outlook

1. Trump's Bitcoin Policy Direction

Trump promised to make the United States a cryptocurrency-centric nation during his presidential campaign. His statement that he would become a "Crypto President" garnered significant market attention.

– Strategic Reserve Assets and Trump's Position

Trump pledged to secure Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, but there was no specific mention of this in his inauguration speech. Instead, he emphasized inflation reduction and prioritizing America.

– Market Disappointment and Policy Direction

An executive order related to cryptocurrencies was announced four days after the inauguration, but it did not offer anything beyond expectations. However, market expectations remain as the administration and related agencies will be fleshing out policies over the next six months.

2. Potential for Bitcoin Holding at the Federal Reserve and State Government Levels

– Fed's Bitcoin Holding Policy

Fed Chairman Powell mentioned that the Federal Reserve is currently legally restricted from holding Bitcoin. This implies that a legislative amendment by Congress is necessary.

– State Government-Level Movement to Hold Bitcoin

Currently, 17 state governments are considering Bitcoin as a strategic asset, and this is likely to spread. If state-level movements increase, discussions at the federal level may also be activated.

– Legal Amendment Possibilities and Impact

With the Republican Party currently controlling Congress and many cryptocurrency-friendly lawmakers, the possibility of legal amendments is high. If a legal amendment allows the Fed to hold Bitcoin, it would send a strong bullish signal to the market.

3. Bitcoin Market Outlook and Key Variables

– Factors Increasing Bitcoin Demand

Expansion of Institutional Investment: Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, demand from institutional investors has been increasing.
Potential Strategic Assetization by State and Federal Governments: If public institutions' holding of Bitcoin becomes a reality, demand could increase explosively.
Strengthening of Pro-Cryptocurrency Policies by the Trump Administration: With the appointment of pro-cryptocurrency figures to key regulatory agencies like the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), expectations for industry growth are rising.

– Supply Constraint Factors

Bitcoin Halving Effect: The Bitcoin halving in 2024 will result in a decrease in supply, increasing upward pressure on prices.
Increase in Long-Term Holders: If government agencies and large investors adopt long-term holding strategies, the market supply will decrease, potentially promoting price increases.

– Negative Scenarios

Stronger-than-Expected Tightening Cycle
- If the Fed strengthens its tightening policies again to curb inflation, there is a possibility of Bitcoin price declines.
Advancement of Quantum Computing Technology
- If quantum computers that threaten Bitcoin's security system advance, market instability could increase.
Exchange Risk and Large Sales Volumes
- Past exchange bankruptcies like Mt. Gox and FTX, and large-scale asset sale issues, could lead to a sharp price drop.

4. Conclusion and Future Investment Strategy

– With the Trump administration's pro-cryptocurrency policies becoming a reality, the Bitcoin market is likely to develop in a positive direction.

– However, variables such as tightening cycles, quantum computers, and exchange risks exist, so investors need continuous market monitoring.

– 2024 and 2025 are important periods for the full-scale institutional acceptance of Bitcoin, and attention should be paid to changes in the virtual asset market, including Bitcoin.

< Summary >

Trump pledged to create a cryptocurrency-centric nation but has taken no clear action since taking office.
Bitcoin holding at the Fed level is still difficult, but 17 state governments are considering it as a strategic asset.
If a legal amendment is made, federal government-level holding will also be possible, which will positively impact the market.
The Bitcoin halving in 2024 and the expansion of institutional investment are increasing upward pressure on prices.
On the other hand, strengthening tightening cycles, the development of quantum computers, and large-scale sales could act as downside factors.
Bitcoin investors should continuously monitor market changes and develop strategies.

[More…]

1. Changes in the Trump Administration's Cryptocurrency Policy
👉 Trump Cryptocurrency Policy

2. Analysis of the Impact of the Bitcoin Halving
👉 Impact of Bitcoin Halving

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

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U.S. Stock Market Trends and Key Issue Analysis

U.S. Stock Market Overview

Despite former President Trump's announcement of plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum products imported into the United States, the three major U.S. stock indexes showed upward trends.

US Steel (X): Up more than 3%
U.S. Aluminum Co.: Up 5%
Most steel and aluminum-related stocks recorded gains.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Analysis

Tesla fell more than 3% that day, falling to $350.

Background of Tesla's Decline

Decline in UK electric vehicle market share
- BYD sold 161 units and Tesla sold 148 units in the UK in January.
- This is the first time BYD has surpassed Tesla in monthly sales.
- BYD sales increased 6-fold compared to last year, while Tesla sales decreased 88%.
Poor sales in the German market as well
- Tesla sales in Germany plummeted 59% year-on-year.
Decrease in sales in the Chinese market

Sales of electric vehicles produced at local Chinese factories in January decreased 11.5% year-on-year.
Sales of Model 3 and Model Y plummeted 32.6% compared to December.

Tesla Stock Outlook
- Investment bank Morgan Stanley warned that Tesla's stock could fall 70% from its current level, presenting a target price of $135.
- Stock prices may rebound if AI and autonomous driving data analysis platforms are strengthened.
- Tesla's AI potential, if realized, has a positive long-term outlook.

Palantir (PLTR) Performance Analysis and Stock Outlook

Rose more than 5% that day, exceeding $16
Soared 24% after the announcement of fourth-quarter results
Potential to grow into a strong AI software company
Although there is a possibility of short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook is positive.

Nasdaq Index Movement and CPI Data Outlook

NASDAQ: Up 1%
January CPI announced soon
- The market expectation is 0.3% increase compared to the previous month.
- If the forecast is met, the stock market may rise further.

Major Issues in the Semiconductor Industry

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)

January sales increased 35.9% year-on-year
Increased demand for semiconductors related to AI servers
Share price rose to $207

NVIDIA

Up 3%, surpassing $133
Increased expectations for fourth-quarter results
Target price of $190 presented, with potential for a 40% increase in the future

Cryptocurrency Market Trends

Bitcoin Price: Fell to $97,000
Impact of Trump's tariff policy and global financial market volatility
From a long-term perspective, there is potential for Bitcoin's value to increase.

Major Corporate Earnings Announcements and Stock Reactions

McDonald's (MCD): Up 3% despite lower-than-expected results
Personal goods company: Down 10% due to poor performance
Bio company Insight: Down 5% due to weak performance
Automotive parts manufacturer Lager: Up 12% after exceeding profit expectations
Onsemi conductor (ON): Down 9% due to poor performance
GameStop (GME): Up 7% due to rumors of cryptocurrency business expansion
Semtech: Plunged 30% due to warning of expected sales decline
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Up 177% on earnings expectations

Future Market Outlook

Earnings announcements from major companies and the AI/semiconductor theme are expected to lead the stock market.
The January CPI announcement is likely to have a significant impact on the stock market.
Increased volatility of Tesla and major technology stocks is possible.
The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market is also expected to change depending on tariffs and global financial conditions.

< Summary >

The U.S. stock market rose despite Trump's plans to impose steel and aluminum tariffs.
Tesla has fallen due to poor performance in the UK, German, and Chinese markets, and may rebound in the long term depending on AI development.
Palantir soared after earnings announcement on expectations of AI market expansion.
The semiconductor industry, including TSMC and Nvidia, is strong due to increased demand for AI servers.
Bitcoin has been adjusted to $97,000, but there is potential for long-term value increase.
The January CPI announcement and major technology stock earnings announcements are expected to determine the direction of the market.

[More…]

"Tesla Stock Outlook: 2024 Predictive Analysis"
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%85%8C%EC%8A%AC%EB%9D%BC
"Nvidia and the AI Semiconductor Market, Future Prospects"
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%97%94%EB%B9%84%EB%94%94%EC%95%84

*YouTube Source: [미국주식하는인갠]

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UK Inheritance Tax (Estate Tax) Controversy: Nigel Farage and Public Reaction

Nigel Farage's Call for Abolishing Inheritance Tax

Nigel Farage has recently sparked political controversy by strongly advocating for the abolition of inheritance tax (estate tax). He emphasized that inheritance tax is "unfair, immoral, and should be completely abolished." In particular, he highlights the economic difficulties faced by family farm operators due to inheritance tax, linking this to food security issues within the UK.

Current Status of Inheritance Tax (Estate Tax)

Currently, in the UK, inheritance tax is imposed on assets inherited above a certain amount. For couples, there is a tax-free allowance of up to £1 million. However, some experts argue that the inheritance tax threshold should be lowered, making more people liable.

Arguments Against Inheritance Tax

Many believe that parents financially supporting their children is a natural act and should not be subject to taxation.
There is a view that it plays an important role in maintaining the economic stability of families.
It is also argued that, in the current economic environment where it is difficult for individuals to accumulate wealth on their own, inheritance serves as an important source of financial support.

Arguments For Inheritance Tax

It is argued that inheritance is received without personal labor and is given gratuitously by parents, so it is fair to be subject to taxation.
Currently, only about 6% of the total population in the UK pay inheritance tax, so lowering the threshold could help secure additional tax revenue.
There are concerns that inheritance can further promote the inheritance of wealth, exacerbating social inequality.
It is also pointed out that some wealthy individuals avoid inheritance tax by utilizing various legal procedures, so the system needs to be reformed.

Political Opinion on Abolishing Inheritance Tax

According to most opinion polls, inheritance tax is a very unpopular tax in the UK.

There are many opposing opinions from all classes, from the working class to the wealthy.
Many people have a negative stance on inheritance tax, even though they have few assets to be directly inherited.
Politicians like Nigel Farage are likely to see an increase in approval ratings if they pledge to abolish inheritance tax.

However, opponents warn that this reaction could worsen economic inequality in the long term and negatively affect government finances.

Conclusion

The inheritance tax debate is a major issue that goes beyond simple taxation, connecting to social fairness and economic inequality.
Politicians like Nigel Farage are using this to gain public support, which is likely to become an important issue in the upcoming UK general election.

< Summary >

Nigel Farage is strongly advocating for the abolition of inheritance tax, highlighting it as a political issue.
The current inheritance tax system has a tax-free allowance of up to £1 million, with only about 6% of the total population paying inheritance tax.
Opponents argue that inheritance tax is essential for protecting family wealth and economic stability.
Proponents point out that inheritance is wealth acquired without labor, so it is fair to be taxed, and it can prevent the deepening of inequality.
The abolition of inheritance tax is popular with the public and is likely to be an important political issue in future elections.