Tesla News: Ray Dalio's Investment and Wall Street's Changing Evaluation

Ray Dalio and Bridgewater's Investment in Tesla

Who is Ray Dalio?

Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund
Successful in generating profits even during the 2008 financial crisis
Invests based on long-term economic trends rather than short-term market fluctuations

Why Bridgewater Bought Tesla Shares

According to recent data, Bridgewater purchased $62 million (approximately ₩150 billion) worth of Tesla shares
A change in Dalio's investment style, which previously preferred a more stable portfolio over growth stocks
Sold 40% of Apple, 35% of Amazon, and some shares of Microsoft, Meta, and Google
Portfolio restructuring focused on the AI industry

Reasons for Choosing Tesla

A leader in the electric vehicle market, transforming the traditional automotive industry
Growth potential in autonomous driving (AI) technology and the energy industry (solar power, batteries)
As AI emerges as a crucial investment theme, Tesla has significant potential to become a central player in future industries

Wall Street's Evaluation of Tesla

Negative Assessments

1. Intensifying Competition in the Global Electric Vehicle Market

Rapid growth of Chinese electric vehicle companies: BYD, Nio, etc.
Potential decline in Tesla's profit margins due to price competition

2. Intensifying Competition in the Autonomous Driving Market

Google's Waymo: Operating robotaxis in the United States
Mobileye: Collaborating with existing automotive manufacturers to develop lidar-based autonomous driving
Potential threat to Tesla's exclusive position from competing companies

3. Elon Musk's Political Activities and Brand Image

Musk's political statements may negatively impact consumers
Potential increase in negative sentiment towards Tesla, especially in Europe and the United States

Positive Assessments

1. New Product Launches and Expanded Lineup

Positive reception after the launch of the new Model Y
Additional new vehicle announcements expected

2. Autonomous Driving and Robotaxi Services

Cyber Taxi pilot operation in Austin (USA) in the second half of 2024
If camera-based autonomous driving technology succeeds, Tesla's value is expected to increase significantly

3. AI-Centered Business Structure

Tesla is expanding its AI-based autonomous driving, Optimus (robot), and energy storage businesses
Transforming from a simple automaker to an AI and robotics company

Movements of Institutional Investors

Amidst the decline in Tesla's stock price, Vanguard purchased an additional 3.61 million Tesla shares
As a result, Vanguard holds 7.52% of Tesla's shares, becoming one of the largest institutional investors along with BlackRock

Future Investment Strategy

If Tesla's AI and autonomous driving technology succeed, there is significant potential for stock price appreciation
However, short-term volatility may be high due to intensifying competition in the global electric vehicle market and Musk's political issues
It is necessary to continuously monitor Tesla's technological advancements and corporate strategies from a long-term perspective

< Summary >

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Investment in Tesla
- Adjusting portfolio to focus on AI and Tesla rather than growth stocks
- Reducing the proportion of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, etc.
Negative Wall Street Assessments
- Competition in the Chinese electric vehicle market
- Intensifying competition in autonomous driving (Waymo, Mobileye)
- Musk's political activities
Positive Wall Street Assessments

New Model Y and new vehicle launches
Development of autonomous driving and robotaxi services
Expansion of AI and robotics businesses

Institutional Investor Movements
- Vanguard purchased an additional 3.61 million Tesla shares
- Major stakeholdings with BlackRock
Investment Strategy Direction
- Observe AI and autonomous driving technology advancements
- Positive long-term outlook, need to consider short-term volatility

[More…]

Analysis of Tesla's AI Strategy: https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%85%8C%EC%8A%AC%EB%9D%BC
Changes in Electric Vehicle Market Trends: https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%A0%84%EA%B8%B0%EC%B0%A8

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Bank of Korea's Gold Reserves and Global Gold Market Trends

Bank of Korea's Gold Reserves: 104 Tons, But Not in Korea

The Bank of Korea holds a total of 104 tons of gold, but it is stored at the Bank of England in the UK, not in Korea.
With the recent increase in gold market volatility, securing physical gold has become increasingly difficult.
It is said that it takes at least two months to withdraw gold from the UK.

Global Gold Supply and Demand Crisis

Governments and central banks in the United States, China, Russia, etc., are significantly increasing their gold reserves.
Due to a gold shortage, the United States is importing large amounts of gold from the UK, at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic.
China and Russia are also rapidly buying gold, resulting in a decrease in market supply.

Suspension of Gold & Silver Sales in Korea

Recently, cases of gold bar and silver bar sales being suspended have occurred in Korea.
Due to the difficulty in supplying physical gold, transactions are not being properly carried out.
Gold transactions are usually made through gold futures and derivatives, but problems arise as requests for physical delivery increase.

Impact on the Market

Gold price increase → Increased preference for safe assets → Potential negative impact on the stock market.
If the gold price continues to rise, there is a possibility of a shift to alternative assets (Bitcoin, real estate, etc.).
In the United States, the movement to regard gold as a strategic asset is expanding, highlighting the importance of gold and Bitcoin.

The Role of Bitcoin

Bitcoin is considered digital gold and has the potential to emerge as an alternative in the event of a gold supply shortage.
However, the recent price of Bitcoin has been declining due to market corrections.
As funds flow out of Bitcoin ETFs, short-term price declines are continuing.

Conclusion

As the gold shortage intensifies, gold prices may continue to rise, reaching record highs.
Alternative investment assets such as Bitcoin and silver are likely to attract attention along with gold.
Changes in the global political landscape (US-China conflict, Russia-Ukraine war, etc.) are also expected to affect the increase in gold demand.

< Summary >

The Bank of Korea's 104 tons of gold are stored in the Bank of England in the UK, not in Korea.
Recently, as global demand for gold has increased, securing physical gold has become difficult.
In particular, the shortage of supply in the market is intensifying as the United States, China, and Russia are buying large amounts of gold.
Due to the shortage of physical gold, cases of gold bar and silver bar sales being suspended have occurred in Korea.
If the gold price continues to rise, the preference for safe assets is likely to increase.
Bitcoin is emerging as an alternative asset to gold, but recent price adjustments are underway.
Price volatility in gold and alternative assets is likely to increase depending on changes in the global political situation.

[More…]

🔗 Gold Bar Sales Suspension Crisis, Analysis of the Cause of Gold Price Surge
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B3%A8%EB%93%9C%EB%B0%94

🔗 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A New Paradigm of Safe Assets
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%B9%84%ED%8A%B8%EC%BD%94%EC%9D%B8

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Three Shocks Coming to Tesla

1. Large-Scale Deployment of FSD (Full Self-Driving) 13.2.7

Tesla's latest version of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, 13.2.7, is being deployed on a large scale.
In particular, AI expert James Douma has praised the technological advancement, saying it is "indistinguishable from magic."

The most notable feature of this version is that it can recognize lanes and drive even on snowy roads.
This is a very important function in snowy regions like Canada, as no existing self-driving system has shown stable performance in such environments.
In addition, a function has been added that automatically parks and charges after arriving at a Supercharger.
With this feature, it is expected that charging will be possible without user intervention when wireless charging technology is introduced in the future.

FSD 13.2.7 is based on a network trained through the Giga Texas Supercomputer Cluster,
and a more advanced version is expected to be released in March or April.
Technically, it is at a level where robotaxi services can be implemented,
and if the authorities approve, Tesla is likely to transform into a full-fledged robot taxi company.

The completeness of this technology will increase further by June of this year,
and after legal permission, Tesla has a high chance of becoming a leading company in the robotaxi market.

Tesla Stock Price Outlook

If the robotaxi service is fully operational, some predict that Tesla's stock price could exceed $1,000.
The stock price is likely to rise to $700-800 with just the initial expansion of the robotaxi service.
Looking at 2025-2026, the most important variable is self-driving technology, and Optimus (humanoid robot) will be the next task.

2. Large-Scale Tesla Purchases by Institutions

Recently, institutional investors' purchases of Tesla stock have increased rapidly.

Bridgewater Associates has acquired a new stake in Tesla.
- Bridgewater is a famous investment company founded by legendary investor Ray Dalio.
BlackRock's most purchased stock in the last quarter was Tesla.
- Tesla's share in the entire portfolio increased to 1.6%, which is about 50% higher than before.
- More than 200 million shares of Tesla were net purchased.
Vanguard also purchased more than 240 million additional shares of Tesla.
- It shows a similar pattern to BlackRock and maintains an upward trend.

Institutions mainly make purchases due to the influence of passive funds and index rebalancing, but
if FSD fully develops this year and the robotaxi service is approved by June,
it is expected that more institutional funds will flow into Tesla.

3. Dojo's Shock: Monitoring Role for Government Budget Waste

The 'Dojo' system led by Elon Musk is tracking the U.S. government's enormous waste of budget.
In the process, opposition from the government and major media is intensifying.

Recently, the Dojo system revealed that $1.9 billion (about 4 trillion won) of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's budget was lost due to procedural problems.
The U.S. government operates a budget in the order of tens of thousands of won every year, and
Dojo is tracking and recovering hundreds of billions of dollars in real-time.

Elon Musk's goal is to prevent the U.S. government from wasting more than $1 trillion (about 1,300 trillion won).
However, the media and politicians are attacking Dojo, fearing that their corruption will be revealed.

Distorted Information Warfare by the Media and Political Circles

Major U.S. media outlets are pouring out critical articles about Dojo's budget monitoring role.
In particular, Reuters is suspected of receiving $9 million in support from the U.S. government and making distorted reports.
Trump also revealed that the Department of Defense provided money to media companies in return and induced specific reports for political gain.

Elon Musk has stated that he will reveal the truth through additional investigations regarding this situation.

< Summary >

Deployment of FSD 13.2.7: Normal driving even on snowy roads, automatic charging function added at Superchargers → Robotaxi possible level
Large-Scale Tesla Purchase by Institutions: Global institutional investors such as BlackRock, Vanguard, and Bridgewater expand Tesla's share → Further increase expected after June
Dojo's Role in Monitoring Government Budget: Tracking and recovering hundreds of billions of dollars wasted → Strong opposition from the media and political circles

Tesla is heralding a full-scale change with self-driving technology and robotaxis,
and is expected to play a more central role in the market by monitoring government budgets through AI and the Dojo system.