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● Recession Looming

Recent Economic Trends and Investment Outlook for the U.S. and China

U.S. Economic Status and Outlook

There is a growing trend of money moving out of the U.S. and into China.
This is not just a fluctuation in investment sentiment, but a signal that concerns about a recession in the U.S. are beginning in earnest.
Worries about a recession outweigh concerns about inflation, supported by indicators such as slowing consumption and a decline in GDP Now.
In particular, Trump’s tariff policies and the strategic moves of the U.S. government are amplifying the possibility of an economic slowdown.
It is predicted that the U.S. economy is likely to enter a recession in the second half of the year.

Investment Perspective on Nasdaq and Bitcoin

Nasdaq and Bitcoin are considered long-term investment assets, with a virtuous cycle where fundamental belief leads to purchasing.
However, recently, that belief has weakened, resulting in a stock price correction of more than 10%.
This correction has led to short-term selling pressure, but the growth potential based on innovation remains.
Bitcoin is evaluated as digital gold, and imbalances in supply and demand coupled with strengthening fundamentals indicate future upward potential.
Investors need to view it as a long-term store of value rather than focusing on short-term volatility.

Capital Flows Between China and the U.S. and Their Impact

The inflow of funds into China from the U.S. indicates that China’s economic status is strengthening.
Increased confidence on the Chinese side and the resulting inflow of foreign capital are increasing competitive pressure on the U.S.
At the same time, technology stocks and innovative companies (e.g., Tesla, Nvidia, Meta, etc.) in the U.S. still possess strong advantages.
In terms of diversifying investment portfolios, appropriately adjusting the weighting of U.S. and Chinese assets could be beneficial.

Amendment to the Commercial Act and Korean Market Trends

This week, the attractiveness of the KOSPI in the Korean market will largely depend on whether the amendment to the Commercial Act is passed.
The amendment to the Commercial Act plays a role in protecting the rights of minority shareholders and preventing value downgrades, and could be a technical turning point to enhance long-term investment appeal.
At the same time, some sectors, such as the semiconductor industry, are already showing signs of a rebound, indicating a change in the market dynamics.
Semiconductor-related stocks are noteworthy due to their potential for recovery after a significant drop.

Key Indicators and Expectations to Watch

Major indicators to be released this week include the CPI, U.S. consumption indicators, retail sales, and U.S. industrial production.
At the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting, it is likely that there will be no significant changes in interest rate policy amidst tariffs and global uncertainty.
Technological innovation events, such as Nvidia’s GTC event and the launch of new robot-related products, are also expected to influence investor sentiment.
Ultimately, various factors such as the U.S. economic recession, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, semiconductors, and amendments to the Commercial Act are intertwined, which will likely demonstrate short-term volatility.

Summary

There is a trend of funds moving from the U.S. to China, and concerns about an economic recession are intensifying.
Nasdaq and Bitcoin are attractive investment assets in the long term, but are currently in a short-term correction phase.
Trump’s tariff policies and declining consumption indicators are acting as destabilizing factors in the U.S. economy.
The Korean market has the potential to strengthen the attractiveness of the KOSPI through amendments to the Commercial Act.
Moving forward, it is necessary to pay attention to major economic indicators such as the CPI, consumption indicators, industrial production, and technological innovation events.

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