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● Wake-Up Call, US Stocks

Latest Global Economic Outlook and Analysis of Key Market Factors

1. Market Euphoria and Peak Formation

The market is currently in a state of euphoria, with widespread expectations that unbelievable profitability will continue.
This situation can be characterized as a ‘euphoric market,’ as described by Reed Berstein.
It is important to revisit past cases where excessively high expectations made recovery difficult.
In this regard, discussions about the premium of the U.S. stock market and the decline in investment attractiveness are noteworthy.

2. Investment Strategies for the U.S., China, and Emerging Markets

In the case of the U.S. market, expectations have been lowered due to Trump’s policies and increased margin requirements.
Meanwhile, overseas markets, including China, have seen prices drop to historical lows but show potential for long-term growth.
Emerging markets such as Indonesia and Poland are assessed to have room for rebound after a sharp decline.
Investors need to seek diversified investments, considering global economic prospects and industry trends, rather than relying excessively on U.S. stocks.

3. Economic Impact of International Affairs and Trade Wars

Chinese deflation, trade wars, and Trump’s countervailing duties are destabilizing the international situation.
Changes in oil prices, commodity markets, and interest rate policies are affecting the overall economy.
Interest rate policies and exchange rate adjustment movements among major countries such as the U.S., Europe, and Japan are acting as major variables in the economic outlook.
In particular, attention should be paid to how the Fed’s interest rate hike and international trade tensions will affect the global economy in the future.

4. Re-evaluation of Domestic Economy and Corporate Strategies

The Korean stock market has shown an upward trend due to large-scale investments from the National Pension Service and asset reallocation by companies, but perplexing situations have also occurred after inflated expectations.
Companies are hedging risks through capital increases or M&A after high-point signals and are increasing resilience through a balance of domestic demand and exports.
In addition, securing competitiveness through innovative technology and productivity improvement is a key factor.
Despite domestic issues such as contraction of domestic demand and decline in real estate, stable growth potential is inherent from a long-term perspective.

Summary

Currently, the global economy is unfolding in various ways, including peak formation due to euphoria and excessive expectations, changes in investment strategies among the U.S., China, and emerging markets, the impact of international affairs and trade wars, and the strategic readjustment of domestic companies.
It is time to examine both the risks and opportunities in the market, focusing on key words such as economic outlook, global economy, interest rates, international affairs, and industry trends.

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