Trump Tariff Bomb Global Economic Crisis

● Trade War Truce,-Musk Factor

Signs of Division in Trump’s Tariff Policy and Future Direction – Complete Overview of Global Economic Outlook

Composition and Power Structure of Trump’s Inner Circle

Let’s break down the key figures in Trump’s tariff policy.
No. 1 is, of course, President Trump.
Peter Navarro holds the second position, serving as a White House senior advisor and having been with him since his first term.
Third is Commerce Secretary Howard Rootnik, who is considered to wield strong influence in tariff policy decisions.
There are other figures such as Scott Cent, but their influence within the inner circle is relatively weak.

Possibility of Tariff Withdrawal and Signals of Internal Division

Recently, Elon Musk expressed his desire for tariff-free trade between the U.S. and Europe.
Elon Musk has shown discomfort with the tariff policy, leading to subtle clashes of opinion with Trump’s associates.
Furthermore, as Peter Navarro’s bullish market outlook interview was released, Elon Musk criticized it on his Twitter.
Bill Ackman also warned that continuing the current policy poses a risk of economic recession, urging to secure time before the tariff announcement.
Senator Ted Cruz also expressed his opposition, saying that the tariff policy could lead to a decline in approval ratings within the Republican Party.

Sustainability of Tariff Policy and International Reactions

Despite these signals of internal division, some key figures, including Scott Cent, are showing their intention to maintain the tariff enforcement for the time being.
The market is experiencing increased uncertainty due to the tariff policy, with rising investment risks such as increased junk bond spreads.
U.S. and foreign companies are pointing out the lack of preparation time for supply chain changes, and voices calling for tariff withdrawal or temporary suspension are growing.
In particular, Vietnam and Taiwan are appearing to kneel in the trade war with the United States due to the possibility of tariff retaliation.
Meanwhile, investment experts such as Stan Druckenmiller are also warning of the negative impact of the U.S. fiscal deficit and tariff policy, arguing that a re-examination is needed in terms of risk-reward.

Future Implementation Schedule and Expected Scenarios

Currently, the tariff policy is likely to continue until the midterm elections.
Trump appears to be strategizing to accelerate his victory in the midterm elections by accumulating various diplomatic and economic achievements before the April 9 deadline.
If the withdrawal or postponement of tariffs is realized, significant changes are expected in the trade war structure between the U.S., China, and other major countries.
Economic outlook and market analysis experts are paying attention to changes in U.S. policy and the aspects of the trade war, and it is expected to have a significant impact on the global investment environment in the future.

From a global economic outlook perspective, the signs of division within Trump’s tariff policy and the statements of related figures are organized in chronological order.
The inner circle centered around Trump, Peter Navarro, and Howard Rootnik plays a key role in promoting the tariff policy.
Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, Ted Cruz, etc. raise doubts about tariff withdrawal and postponement.
Reactions from the U.S. and other countries, companies’ supply chain responses, and fiscal deficit issues are acting in a complex manner, increasing market uncertainty.
Focusing on the key words of tariff policy, U.S. policy, trade war, market analysis, and economic outlook, attention should be paid to the policy progress up to the midterm elections.

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● Trump – No Tariff Delay!

Analysis of the Latest Global Economic Issues: Trump’s Tariff Policies and Global Stock Market Trends

1. Rapidly Changing Policy Announcements by Trump’s Economic Team

Trump’s recent tariff policy announcements are a key issue in the global economic outlook.
Professor Paul Krugman argues that this policy should be interpreted not as a simple mistake or miscalculation, but as a display of dominance aimed at overwhelming and subjugating the opposing country.
Some may see it as a lack of numerical calculation, but it is emphasized that the tariff policy may actually be part of a political strategy.

2. Concerns Regarding Global Trade and Emerging Market Crisis

El-Erian, chief advisor, mentioned global economic uncertainty and warned that emerging markets with high trade dependence could be severely affected.
Recent fund flow analysis confirms that funds are flowing into Europe, but there is little flow into emerging markets.
The situation is even more sensitive for countries like Korea, where the domestic market is small and trade is high.

3. Controversy over IT Technology and Tech Stocks

Wedbush Denives was originally optimistic about tech stocks, but strongly criticized that this tariff measure could pose a fundamental threat to global IT technology leadership.
The global supply chain structure of 50% in China and 32% in Taiwan is greatly shaken by this measure, and there is also mention of the possibility of the iPhone price rising more than three times.
This contraction of tech stocks is bound to shock not only the US but also the global market.

4. Market Confusion and Discussions on Postponing Tariff Implementation

Regarding Trump’s tariff policy, some suggest the possibility of postponement, saying that it can be used as a tool for negotiation.
Bill Ackman’s tweets predicted that the tariff implementation would be temporarily postponed, but on the other hand, some have conflicting opinions that it will be enforced.
In this situation, short-term stock price fluctuations, as well as the prices of major raw materials such as copper, silver, and gold, are falling, and anxiety is spreading throughout the financial market.

5. Intensifying International Political and Economic Conflicts and Response Strategies

International conflicts are escalating, including tariff-free negotiations with Russia and agreements to impose tariffs on $8 billion worth of US imports.
Some countries, including Germany, are predicting retaliatory measures such as restricting the storage of US gold, and the aspect of a global trade war is becoming clear.
In this situation, Asset Finance Minister emphasized that instead of excessive concerns about economic recession, it is necessary to have leeway for short-term market turmoil.

6. Domestic Stock Market and Investor Response

As each country’s countermeasures, such as Taiwan’s strengthening of short selling regulations, are announced, anxiety is increasing in the domestic stock market.
Investors need to prepare a long-term survival strategy and respond calmly, rather than rapid profits in the short term.
Currently, as the global market is being swayed by various variables such as economic crisis, tariffs, and trade, careful portfolio management is emphasized.

Summary

In the global economic outlook, the Trump economic team’s tariff policy is interpreted as a strategy to show dominance over the opposing country.
El-Erian advises that emerging countries’ high dependence on trade will cause a major blow, and Wedbush Denives expresses a sense of crisis over IT technology.
Discussions are taking place on postponing tariff implementation, including Bill Ackman, and the fuse of the international trade war is burning.
Tensions between Russia and the US, and even Taiwan’s strengthening of short selling regulations in Korea, are all situations that can cause global trade, tariffs, markets, and economic crises.
Investors must prepare a survival strategy calmly without being shaken by short-term fluctuations, and closely observe the instability of the global economy.

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