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● 부동산 폭탄, 한국 경제 위기 임박
부동산 폭탄, 한국 경제 위기 임박

Precarious Status of the Construction and Real Estate Industries Amidst Economic Crisis, and Trump’s Tariff Policies at a Glance

Construction Industry Crisis and Risk of Serial Collapse of Subcontractors

Over 1,000 construction companies are currently unable to cover even bank interest with their profits.
If one construction company collapses, 20-30 subcontractors affiliated with it also face difficulties in a chain reaction.
This situation ultimately leads to the inability to repay bank loans, increasing the possibility of bankruptcy.
In particular, issues such as PF problems and unsold houses in local areas are causing a severe vicious cycle of financial difficulties for construction companies.

Real Estate Market – An Abnormal Phenomenon of High Prices and Recession Coexisting

The media emphasizes the formation of new high prices in some areas of Gangnam, but
in reality, the national real estate market is in recession.
Transactions in the top three districts of Gangnam, Seoul, are only possible for a small percentage (1%) of the entire market, which inflates the average.
There are articles stating that the lifting of land transaction permit zones and deregulation stimulate investment sentiment, but
in reality, there are concerns about the overall contraction of the market due to the domestic economic recession and unsold housing problems.

Trump Administration’s Tariff Policies and Global Economic Shock

Tariff imposition attacks have become full-fledged since the inauguration of the Trump administration.
The United States is trying to resolve its trade deficit by imposing a 25% tariff on major items such as steel and aluminum.
In South Korea’s export-oriented economy, tariffs can directly and negatively affect domestic demand and exports.
The reorganization of the global protectionist trade order is reminiscent of the Great Depression of the 1930s, raising concerns about a long-term economic recession.

Contradictions in Media Coverage, Public Officials’ Groups, and Policy Implementation

Exaggerated media coverage and the highlighting of only some regions in statistics lead to distortion of reality.
There are criticisms that public officials’ groups are passive in adjusting real estate prices or implementing policies.
There is a growing voice that governments elected through elections, like the Trump administration, should directly reorganize the public official system.
Trust issues between the government and the media can greatly affect policy effectiveness.

Possibility of Financial Crisis and Warning of Economic Recession at the Level of the IMF

The self-employed and the financial sector are already experiencing an economic recession similar to that of the IMF crisis.
As banks are under pressure to repay loans, unstable elements such as secondary financial institutions and savings banks are being highlighted.
If the continuous economic recession deepens, it can adversely affect the entire financial system along with bank bankruptcies.
Our economy is likely to be shaken not only by internal problems but also by external factors such as the United States and Europe.

<Summary>

The overall economy is threatened by the simultaneous effects of several negative factors, such as the severe financial difficulties of the construction industry, distortions in the real estate market,
export contraction due to the Trump administration’s strong tariff policies,
problems in media coverage and the public official system,
and the vulnerability of the financial sector, leading to the possibility of an economic recession at the level of the IMF.
All of these issues are not just individual phenomena but
are creating a interconnected vicious cycle,
so it is necessary to pay close attention to the latest trends related to the economy, real estate, the IMF, the construction industry, and tariffs.

[Related Articles…]
Analysis of Construction Industry Instability
Impact of Tariff Policies and Export Contraction

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– “은행 파산도 코앞이다” 한국 경제 부동산이 다 망쳤다 (서동기 박사 2부)