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● Currency Shock- Dollar Fate

U.S. Tariff Hikes and Global Economic Uncertainty: A Thorough Overview from Exchange Rate Forecasts to Financial Policies

[1] U.S. Tariff Hikes and the Outlook for U.S.-China Negotiations

The U.S. is using tariff hikes as a convenient excuse.
The initial intention was to impose tariffs of 60% on China.
Currently, it is possible that both the U.S. and China will lower tariffs from the existing 125-140%.
The tariff hikes themselves will act as a level of pressure on both countries.
These tariff effects have an impact on the overall global economy.

[2] China’s Strategy and Yuan Weakness

In the past, during the Trump era, China intentionally weakened the yuan to record levels of 6.2-7 yuan.
Similarly, in response to U.S. tariff policies, China is likely to weaken the yuan.
A weaker yuan is directly related to exchange rate forecasts and affects the Korean won.
This can be seen as a natural change in financial policy, but its impact on other countries, such as Korea, is different.

[3] Changes in Exchange Rates and Export Structures in Korea and Other Countries

Korea has an economic structure linked to the yuan, so a weaker yuan could lead to a weaker won.
Exceeding the 1,500 won margin is not a simple financial crisis, but a natural phenomenon due to uncertainty between the U.S. and China.
A rise in exchange rates can strengthen export competitiveness, but it should be distinguished from financial system instability or foreign capital outflows.
Major manufacturers such as automobiles and semiconductors are slowly adapting to this structure.

[4] Easing Policies in Various Countries and U.S. Economic Slowdown

Major countries such as Europe and Japan are implementing easing (quantitative easing) policies to stimulate their economies, as is the U.S.
China, India, Germany, etc. are also actively trying to boost domestic demand by cutting interest rates and expanding the money supply.
The U.S. is showing signs of an economic slowdown along with tariff policies, which is evident in the slowdown in consumption and changes in employment.
In particular, post-COVID non-farm payroll growth and changes in immigration policy are having a significant impact on financial policy.

[5] Illegal Immigration, Employment Statistics, and Redistribution of the U.S. Financial Market

During the post-COVID period, the U.S. experienced large-scale immigration, but recently, immigration regulations have been tightened, resulting in changes in labor flows.
Illegal immigrants are included in employment statistics, but are excluded from unemployment surveys.
Both the inflow and outflow of labor affect U.S. consumption and the financial market.
The period when foreign capital poured into the U.S. is gradually being interpreted as a signal of repatriation.

[6] Conclusion – Comprehensive Interpretation of Financial Policy, Tariff Effects, and Economic Uncertainty

U.S. tariff hikes go beyond a simple trade dispute and have far-reaching implications for global financial policy.
China’s yuan weakness, Korean won volatility, and various countries’ easing policies are intertwined, increasing economic uncertainty.
In addition, uncertainty in U.S. employment changes and immigration policies affects the redistribution of the financial market, requiring investors to respond cautiously.
All of these factors are deeply related to key keywords such as the global economy, exchange rate forecasts, tariff effects, financial policy, and economic uncertainty.
The response and policy adjustments of each country will be important factors that will determine the future direction of the market.

< Summary >
U.S. tariff hikes are expected to trigger U.S.-China negotiations, with China responding with a weaker yuan.
Countries such as Korea are facing changes in exchange rates and export competitiveness as a result.
In addition, various factors such as easing policies in the U.S. and around the world, employment changes, and tightening immigration regulations are combined to increase global economic uncertainty.
Therefore, in the current situation where financial policy, tariff effects, and exchange rate forecasts interact across the economy, investment and policy responses must be made with caution.

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*YouTube Source: [와이스트릿 – 지식과 자산의 복리효과]

– “환율 1500원 깨져도 놀라지 말아야” 중국의 미국 관세 대응, 달러의 운명은 어디로 / 김태홍 대표 (2부)