Tesla Death Cross Warning: Panic Selling Incoming

● Tesla Death Cross – Chart War

Tesla Regulatory Changes, Tariff Issues, and 2025 Earnings Outlook Analysis Amidst Death Cross Risk

1. Death Cross Phenomenon and Stock Price Fluctuations

Tesla’s stock price is recently showing a ‘death cross’ signal where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average.
This signal is interpreted as a warning that the short-term trend has weakened compared to the long-term trend, and in the past, it has appeared as a precursor to declines in Tesla, Apple, Gauges, and Nasdaq.
A case is presented where the stock price fell sharply after the death cross occurred in February 2024, raising concerns about a stock price decline this time as well.

2. Impact of Tariff and Policy Changes

Tesla is in a more advantageous position in terms of tariffs compared to Detroit’s Big 3 and other overseas automakers.
If tariffs are imposed on auto parts, there will be some impact, but if tariffs are limited to complete vehicles, the negative effects on Tesla are expected to be low.
Musk has repeatedly mentioned tariff issues related to parts, and the outcome of future policy negotiations is expected to be a key variable affecting Tesla’s profitability.

3. Q1 2025 Earnings and Future Schedule

Tesla is scheduled to announce its Q1 earnings on April 22, 2025, U.S. time.
In Korean time, it will be announced at 6:30 AM on April 23, making it difficult to check earnings due to sleep and other factors.
Until the earnings announcement, various variables such as declining electric vehicle sales, price competition with Chinese electric vehicle companies, and new revenue models related to robotaxis and FSD could affect the stock price.

4. Technical Analysis and Historical Examples

In the past, at the time of the death cross in 2021, Tesla reversed the situation with strong Q2 performance and the launch of the FSD subscription service.
It emphasizes that positive business strategies and innovation restored investor sentiment despite the occurrence of the death cross.
A similar reversal is expected in this situation, but a conservative observation attitude is needed along with the risk of a short-term decline.

5. Response Strategy and Outlook

Tesla is preparing several strategic moves, including expanding production at the Austin plant, autonomous driving technology, and unveiling robotaxis.
Musk’s political remarks and brand image issues can also affect domestic demand and overseas markets.
Investors should pay attention to tariffs and regulatory changes, as well as technical indicators, and consider careful buying strategies or timing adjustments.
It is important to focus on analyzing the overall market flow based on the top SEO keywords related to electric vehicles, stock prices, tariffs, earnings, and Tesla.

< Summary >

Tesla is showing a death cross signal recently, implying the risk of a stock price decline.
The impact of tariffs and policy changes on Tesla is likely to be limited to complete vehicles, but additional burdens are expected if parts tariffs are introduced.
Before the Q1 2025 earnings announcement, declining electric vehicle sales, intensified competition with Chinese companies, and the development of new revenue models related to robotaxis and FSD are key variables.
Referring to past death cross reversal cases, a conservative observation and careful investment strategy based on market conditions and technical analysis is necessary.

*YouTube Source: [오늘의 테슬라 뉴스]

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● **Retail Investors Buy the Dip**

From Trump’s Third Term Controversy to Tariff Policy Changes and Trade War Prospects – A Complete Overview of the Latest U.S. Economic Trends

1. Trump’s Third Term Possibility Controversy

The discussion of President Trump jokingly mentioning the possibility of a third term is a hot topic.
Although there have been talks about a third term in the past, recent reports even discuss a scenario where Pence runs as the presidential candidate, exploiting constitutional loopholes, and Trump runs as the vice-presidential candidate, with Pence stepping down on inauguration day.
These discussions are expected to have repercussions not only within political circles but also throughout the economic market, potentially acting as a source of instability for the economy and stock market.

2. Obama vs. Trump: A Poll Perspective

According to a survey conducted by a media outlet, Obama slightly leads with 53% of the total respondents, while Trump has 47%.
In particular, support for Obama was high among Democratic supporters and independents, while Trump showed overwhelming support within the Republican party.
The survey results remain close, but in an increasingly uncertain situation, changes in political leadership can significantly impact the overall economy, especially the stock market and trade policies.

3. Tariff Policy Changes and BlackRock’s Strategy

As the Trump administration pursued tariff policies, it decided to postpone decisions on major sectors such as automobiles and semiconductors.
The tariff postponement was justified by the logic that the goal of producing all components domestically in the U.S. would take a long time, but ultimately, the market recognized that domestic production in the U.S. is practically difficult.
Accordingly, global asset management firm BlackRock anticipated that tariff fears had peaked and preemptively implemented a strategy to increase its U.S. stock weighting from neutral.
This move reflects key SEO keywords such as economy, stock, trade, tariffs, and market, providing important implications for investors.

4. U.S. Investor Sentiment and Trading Patterns

According to the AAI survey, 58.9% of all individual investors have a bearish outlook on the market for the next six months.
This figure has slightly eased from the previous week but still indicates high pessimistic sentiment.
In addition, the Langard survey showed that the execution rate of trades among self-directed investors was only 8.34%, with the number of buyers outnumbering sellers by 5 to 1.
These data suggest that cautious investment behavior, rather than panic selling, amidst an uncertain economic situation can lead to positive results during a rebound period.

5. Global Trade War and Calls for U.S.-China Negotiations

JPMorgan CEO Dimon urged that substantial negotiations with China are necessary before tariffs place a significant burden on the U.S. economy.
In particular, Dimon emphasized that Bessen should play a key role in resolving trade tariff issues.
According to Polymarket data, the possibility of the U.S. lowering Chinese tariff rates before April is reflected as 100%, but the possibility of concluding trade negotiations is projected to be below 40%.
Ultimately, if the uncertainty of the trade war persists, it is expected to have a significant impact on the overall economy, especially the stock market and tariff policies.

6. Overall Outlook

Trump’s third term controversy, tariff policy changes, and polarized political opinions are having complex effects on the U.S. economy.
In particular, tariff policies, investor sentiment, and the progress of the global trade war are reflected in the stock market, potentially continuing market instability.
Even amidst economic uncertainty, it is necessary to carefully determine investment directions through strategies of major asset management firms such as BlackRock and analysis of the patterns of self-directed investors.

< Summary >

Political risks are amplified through the controversy over President Trump's possibility of a third term and constitutional disputes.
Survey results show a subtle difference in public opinion between Obama and Trump.
The Trump administration's tariff policy postponement and BlackRock's strategy to increase its stock weighting are affecting the market.
U.S. individual investors are showing cautious buying patterns amidst anxious sentiment, which can act as an opportunity factor.
JPMorgan CEO Dimon's call for trade negotiations with China emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty of the global trade war.

*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]

– [홍장원의 불앤베어] 미국개미 ‘투매’ 없었다. 폭락장에 ‘이 종목’ 매수로 대응했다