● Powell’s Do-Nothing Stance.
In-depth Analysis of Market Changes and Political/Economic Factors After the FMC
1. Summary of Market Trends After the FMC
Gold prices rose sharply, and oil prices fell noticeably.
Stocks remained relatively unchanged, with rapid declines followed by rebounds.
Chairman Powell showed an “I won’t do anything” attitude without taking any action.
2. Political Factors and Global Economic Flows
China introduced a large-scale stimulus package (benchmark interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts) before the tariff negotiations.
Along with this, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and financial attacks is being discussed, and political pressure is increasingly affecting the economy.
The effects of changes in trade policy and international tensions on the economic outlook can be seen.
3. Powell’s Remarks and Reinterpretation of Inflation
Chairman Powell abandoned the expression “transitory inflation” and used cautious expressions such as “short-lived.”
In policy-related remarks, he reaffirmed his position that “I will not rush if necessary” and “tightening.”
Attention should be paid to the gap between soft data and hard data, and the impact of political issues on the economy.
4. Conclusion and Future Outlook
Expectations for interest rate cuts after the FMC meeting were somewhat tense until April, but stabilized in May.
In the asset market, the risk of bubbles due to liquidity distortion is gradually being detected.
Economic and political risks between the United States and China, and other emerging countries, are expected to have a significant impact on major issues such as stocks, interest rates, and inflation in the future.
Summary
In the market after the FMC, gold prices rose, oil prices fell, and stock prices remained largely unchanged.
Chairman Powell’s conservative stance without taking any action and careful changes in expressions related to inflation are noteworthy.
Political factors such as China’s large-scale stimulus package, exchange rates, and trade policies are affecting the overall economy, and even the risk of asset market bubbles is being raised.
It is necessary to carefully check the latest issues related to the economy, stocks, interest rates, the FMC, and inflation.
[Related Articles…]
Key Summary of FMC Review
Analysis of Powell's Remarks
*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]
– [속보효] 5월 FOMC 리뷰, 아무것도 하지 않겠다는 파월
● Rate Freeze, Trade War, Trump Pressure
Global Economic Outlook: Key Analysis of FMC Meeting and Interest Rate Policy Freeze
1. Interest Rate Policy Freeze and Interpretation of Economic Indicators
Recent FMC meetings revealed that the U.S. benchmark interest rate has been frozen at 4.5%.
The Federal Reserve chose to freeze interest rates even after three rate cuts, mentioning both the robustness of the U.S. economy and the increasing uncertainty.
The economic situation is being reinterpreted based on hard data such as GDP contraction, reduced government spending, and a surge in imports, analyzing that the inflation rate remains high.
2. Economic Outlook and Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve is taking a cautious stance on future policy decisions due to short-term uncertainties and the impact of the trade war.
Inflation, employment stability, and the risk of stagflation are being considered simultaneously, and the timing of interest rate cuts is being reconsidered based on economic data.
Market participants have mixed outlooks regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, but prioritize responses based on data.
3. International Comparison and Global Monetary Policy
Unlike the United States, other major countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, and the Eurozone have already implemented interest rate cuts. In the global economic situation, economic slowdown and inflationary pressures are acting simultaneously.
Through the analysis of these differentiated monetary policies and the strong and weak dollar phenomena, it is emphasized that the U.S. interest rate policy is relatively restricted.
With key keywords such as global economy, interest rate policy, and economic slowdown highlighted, it is necessary to closely examine the interactions of the international financial market.
4. Trade War and Tariff Impact
The ongoing U.S.-China trade war and tariff war are increasing uncertainty throughout the economy.
Import advancements and sharp declines in net exports due to tariff imposition are negatively affecting GDP, which is directly related to trade war uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve maintains its position to respond by thoroughly analyzing data rather than short-term interest rate cuts, citing the opacity caused by the trade war.
5. Future Policy Directions and Market Outlook
Whether short-term interest rate cuts will occur at the upcoming June FMC meeting and the Bank of Korea’s interest rate decision is drawing attention.
The Federal Reserve is forecasting cautious measures, continuously monitoring tariff wars and global economic variables rather than short-term interest rate cuts.
Since various uncertainties such as external economic conditions and statements from the Trump administration are at play in the market, it is necessary to pay attention to future monetary policy changes and global economic trends.
< Summary >
At the FMC meeting, the U.S. benchmark interest rate was maintained at 4.5%, showing a cautious attitude in deciding interest rate policies amidst economic data and uncertainties such as tariff wars. Hard data such as GDP contraction, reduced government spending, and a surge in imports, as well as issues such as inflation and employment instability, are being re-examined. Major countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, and the Eurozone have already implemented interest rate cuts, and complex factors such as economic slowdown and price pressures are acting in the global economy. The direction of interest rate policy is attracting attention at the upcoming June FMC meeting and the Bank of Korea’s decision, and the market is expected to react sensitively to trade wars and global economic variables.
[Related Articles…]
Latest Interest Rate Trend Analysis |
Trade War Outlook Update
*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]
– [속보] 5월 FOMC ‘또’ 금리동결 : 관세전쟁으로 금리인하 무산되나? 트럼프의 해임 압력에도 기준금리 인하 중단할까? [즉시분석]
● Fed Pause, Disney Soars
Analysis of Today’s Fed Rate Freeze, Powell’s Remarks, and Impact on Companies and the Stock Market
1. Summary of the Fed’s Decision to Freeze Rates and Statement
The Fed has frozen the key interest rate.
This statement is said to be a decision made amid increasing economic uncertainty, including inflation and unemployment rates.
The United States aims to achieve full employment and 2% inflation, but with increasing risk factors, it will refrain from interest rate changes for the time being.
The benchmark interest rate will be maintained in the range of 4.25~4.5%, and it was announced that additional adjustments will be considered depending on future economic data.
2. Chairman Powell’s Press Conference and Its Implications
Chairman Powell emphasized a cautious stance, saying that interest rate cuts cannot be made preemptively.
He mentioned concerns about tariffs and stagflation risks, saying that more economic data needs to be collected.
He explained that in the current situation, it is difficult to respond correctly based on economic data, so maintaining the current state is the best option rather than changing interest rates.
He reaffirmed the independence and policy constraints of the Fed, and clarified that it will maintain monetary policy autonomy regardless of the government.
3. Opinions of Economists and Experts
Professor Brian Vesuna of Boston University described Chairman Powell as being “sitting on a hornet’s nest,” saying that staying still is the best option.
KPMG’s chief economist mentioned that the interest rate freeze is a timely measure, but adjustments may be necessary depending on changes in inflation and the labor market.
It is expected that the timing of future interest rate cuts may be in the second half of this year or early next year, and it is pointed out that the direction of financial policy may be delayed amid economic uncertainty.
4. Corporate and Stock Market Reactions
Walt Disney showed a positive response, with its stock price rising more than 10% in one day due to the announcement of plans to build a Disneyland in the Middle East.
On the other hand, Google’s stock price fluctuated significantly in connection with Apple’s intention to introduce AI-based search.
Major U.S. stock markets maintained a positive flow amidst mixed trends, with the Dow Jones up 0.70%, the S&P 500 up 0.43%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27%.
5. Final Economic Outlook and Consumer Impact
Amid uncertain economic prospects amid financial policy, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious response, consumers are likely to suffer from the double burden of high interest rates and high prices.
The actual burden of loan interest and rising prices puts a strain on the consumer economy, which is expected to affect not only the United States but also the overall global economy.
It is necessary to pay attention to future economic data and changes in tariff policy, as well as the opinions of experts and stock market trends.
< Summary >
The Fed has frozen its benchmark interest rate in consideration of economic uncertainties such as inflation and unemployment.
Chairman Powell stressed that it is difficult to respond preemptively to interest rate cuts and mentioned the risks of tariffs and stagflation.
Economic experts predict that the timing of future interest rate cuts will be in the second half of this year or early next year, and consumers are expected to face a greater burden due to high interest rates and high prices.
From a corporate perspective, Disney's stock price rose due to the announcement of a new Disneyland construction in the Middle East, and Google's stock price fluctuated due to Apple's AI search announcement, showing mixed trends.
Overall, inflation, the Fed, and stock prices are expected to be key keywords amid global economic uncertainty and changes in financial policy.
[Related Articles…
]
*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]
– 연준 “결국엔 또 멈췄다”…월트 디즈니, 아부다비 건설 소식에 주가 껑충 | 길금희 특파원
Leave a Reply