Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: US-China Trade War Erupts!

● Trade War Escalation Imminent

<h4>2024 US-China Trade Negotiations: Trump Effect, TSMC, Reality and Prospects of Economic Upheaval</h4>


<strong>Key topics covered in this article:</strong><br>
– Key issues and Trump's influence in the latest US-China trade negotiations<br>
– TSMC & Samsung Electronics' foundry competition and cooperation structure<br>
– Actual development process of the tariff war and scenario-based impact in 2025<br>
– China's export diversification, US economic policy dilemmas, & exchange rate/energy/food strategies<br>
– Analysis of global supply chain changes and Korea's real influence from an economic outlook perspective<br><br>
Each is explained with top keywords such as economic growth, tariff policy, global supply chain, semiconductor hegemony, and exchange rate risk.<br>
We will summarize complex global issues at once.


<h3>1. New Phase of the 2024 US-China Trade Negotiations</h3>


Practical negotiations will begin in Switzerland on May 10. Trump's high-handed attitude remains the same.
China's stance of "not backing down" is also firm, so it is expected to be a long-term battle rather than a dramatic agreement.
Like the first trade war in 2018-2020, there is a possibility of a stopgap measure that only looks like an agreement.


<h3>2. Trump Effect: Tariff Increase and Internal US Dilemma</h3>


Trump mentioned an additional increase of more than 145% of existing tariffs.
He is conducting public opinion warfare by saying that tariffs will be greatly increased if negotiations are not concluded, and can be lowered if an agreement is reached.
Opinions are divided between the Democratic and Republican parties within the United States.
Republican Party (conservative): Argues for "cutting off" China like the Plaza Accord
Democratic Party (liberal): Points out the risk of supply chain and Chinese market departure and worries about excessive conflict
They admit short-term side effects such as rising US prices and supply chain instability, but argue that "it will benefit in the long run."


<h3>3. China's Strategic Preparation and Reversal</h3>


Since the last trade war, they have been fully prepared with immediate retaliation cards.
Quick response is possible, such as restrictions on rare earth exports and retaliatory tariffs on energy and food.
China's share of exports to the United States has fallen from 20% in the 2010s to below 14%.
Export diversification (soybean trade with Brazil, strengthening economic ties between 'BRICS' + Southeast Asia) is already underway.
Efforts to drastically reduce the proportion of US energy and food imports through feed/soybean substitution.
They have response plans for each scenario, including maritime blockade and armed conflict in the worst case.


<h3>4. Global Supply Chain Upheaval: Semiconductor and Foundry Structure</h3>


Competitive structure between TSMC and Samsung Electronics: Foundry division of labor (competition) + HBM memory cooperation (cooperation).
In the US-China semiconductor hegemony competition, the mixed relationship between TSMC and Samsung Foundry is practically a double-edged sword for the Korean economy.
China is accelerating its own semiconductor technology development and attempting to 'decouple' its supply chain from the United States.


<h3>5. Exchange Rate/Capital Investment/Export Structure: China's Inner Thoughts</h3>


It cannot be viewed simply as "If the Chinese economy gets worse, they will lower the exchange rate and export."
China believes that foreign capital (especially the inflow of long-term industrial capital) determines technology acquisition and supply chain growth.
If the exchange rate is drastically devalued, they are worried that foreign investment (industrial facilities, technology) will fall out → limitations of exchange rate policy.
Rather than focusing on trade surpluses from exports, they place more emphasis on industrial growth and supply chain stabilization.


<h3>6. Impact on the Korean Economy and the Global Economy</h3>


If supply chain fragmentation accelerates due to US-China conflict, global supply chains such as semiconductors, automobiles, and secondary batteries will be reorganized.
Korea competes with TSMC in foundries, but strategic cooperation is possible in HBM memory, etc.
They are facing 'direct and indirect decoupling' pressure from both the US and China.
Direct impact on economic growth, trade/exports → mid- to long-term measures are essential.


<h3>7. Expected Scenarios for 2025~2030</h3>


— If the long-term battle intensifies, economic growth will slow down in both countries, increasing the burden on consumers/businesses
— The United States wants to win quickly within Trump's short term, so there are concerns that it will become more intense
— China is strengthening export diversification and 'domestic demand conversion'... mitigating risks
— Worst-case scenario: Shock to global supply chains of energy, food, and raw materials, rapid exchange rate fluctuations, deepened decoupling
— Normalization scenario: Tariff reduction/cooperation prioritized through agreement, global economic recovery


< Summary >


The 2024 US-China trade negotiations show a long-term battle due to Trump's re-entry, high-handed tariffs, and political dilemmas within the United States.
China has completed export diversification, retaliation cards, and supply chain diversification, and the United States is also divided in opinion.
Continuous issues with keywords such as tariffs, semiconductors, exchange rates, global supply chains, and economic growth in Korea, China, and Japan.
The Korean and global economies are facing decoupling → a major reorganization of the supply chain, requiring long-term response strategies.


<h4>SEO Korean Summary</h4>


The 2024 US-China trade negotiations are showing a trend of strengthening tariff policies and long-term battles due to the 'Trump Effect.'
China is responding to US pressure with export diversification and immediate retaliation cards, and the TSMC and Samsung Electronics semiconductor hegemony structure is also changing.
There are clear limitations to exchange rate policies, and changes in the global supply chain are directly affecting economic growth and exports in countries such as Korea.
Systematic responses to major economic variables such as global decoupling, tariff issues, and exchange rate risks are needed in the future.


[Related Articles...]<br>
<a href="https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B4%80%EC%84%B8">Analysis of Global Supply Chain Reorganization and Tariff Policy Impact in 2024</a><br>
<a href="https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%B0%98%EB%8F%84%EC%B2%B4">Semiconductor Hegemony Competition: Future Strategies of TSMC and Samsung Electronics</a>

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