Tariff Truce AI Chips Trump Goldman Sachs S&P Outlook

● Hegemony’s Peril: 5 Factors

Five Key Factors Determining the Fate of a Hegemonic Nation: Ray Dalio’s Insights and a Focused Diagnosis of the Current Crisis

A summary of the five determinants of a hegemonic nation's fate, as argued by Ray Dalio, and the three major crisis phases (economic factors, domestic conflicts, and international conflicts) that global economic blogs are currently focusing on.
This article details the definition of each factor, real-world examples, recent changes, and future developments.
Easily check the latest economic trends and influential global keywords (debt, currency, economic growth, social division, international conflict).

1. Five Factors That Determine the Fate of a Hegemonic Nation

Ray Dalio's formula for the rise and fall of hegemonic nations
Economic structure, including debt and currency
Domestic political and social divisions
Diplomacy and international conflicts
Disaster risks, such as natural disasters
The speed of technological innovation

2. Economic Factors: Debt, Monetary System, Economic Growth

Increased debt and currency issuance directly affect the basic strength of a hegemonic nation
Status of indiscriminate debt expansion by superpowers such as the United States and China
How dangerous are inflation and currency trust collapse issues?
Limitations of the real economy, asset markets, and growth engines

3. Domestic Conflicts: Social Division & Expanding Inequality

Racial, class, and regional conflicts accelerate financial crises and hegemonic decline
Conflicts between Democrats and Republicans in the U.S., protests against pension reform in France, etc.
Deepening wealth inequality affects consumer sentiment and investment contraction
Social chaos leads to a decline in the economic environment and policy trust

4. International Conflicts: Hegemonic Rivalry and Geopolitical Risks

Intensified competition between emerging countries such as China and Russia vs. existing developed countries
Trade wars, financial sanctions, and energy disputes deepen global economic volatility
War in Ukraine, Middle East crisis, global supply chain crisis
Alliance rifts, current status of international order reorganization

5. Other Factors: Natural Disasters, Technological Development

Climate crisis and disaster risks trigger economic shockwaves
The introduction of innovative technologies determines competitive advantage
Productivity improvement and new industry creation also provide the possibility of hegemonic revival

6. The Current Tipping Point: Three Irreversible Risks

Ray Dalio recently claimed that we have "reached a point of no return."
Economic fatigue: Debt burden for both the U.S. and China, deepening currency devaluation
Structural domestic division: Severe racial and class conflicts in the U.S., declining public trust
Entrenched international conflict: Difficult global cooperation due to the U.S.-China hegemonic war and European economic difficulties
Each factor is not independent and exacerbates the crisis by interlocking with each other

7. Future Developments and Implications

Both the sustainability of existing hegemonic nations and the rise of emerging nations are fraught with uncertainty
Investors, businesses, and individuals need asset allocation and risk management that match global uncertainty
The three waves of economic hegemony, social division, and global conflict are still ongoing
New technologies and economic systems may provide structural transitions

Among the five factors of hegemonic nation fate presented by Ray Dalio (economy, domestic conflict, international conflict, natural disasters, technological development), it is pointed out that the recent combination of economic/social/global crises has reached a tipping point. The vulnerability of debt and monetary systems, social division, and deepened international conflict may be harbingers of a major shift in economic hegemony. Strategies to dynamically respond to the age of uncertainty are essential.

[Related Articles…]

The economic hegemonic war between the U.S. and China and the reorganization of the international order
Global economic uncertainty and a major shift in investment strategy

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– 패권국의 운명을 지배하는 다섯 가지 요소 #패권 #패권국가 #미국

● Trump’s Saudi AI Chip Gift, Goldman’s S&P 6100 Call

US-China Tariff Truce, Trump’s Middle East Tour, and Global Market Outlook – A Comprehensive Overview of Today’s Key Issues

1. US-China Tariff Negotiations & 90-Day Truce – Trump’s Assessment and Key Points

President Trump emphasized that “China’s commitment to opening its market is the most significant aspect” of the 90-day tariff suspension agreement.
He mentioned that the key is not just the reduction in numbers but also China’s promise to eliminate non-tariff barriers (various import regulations, etc.).
He hinted at a broader scope of trade liberalization between the two countries in the future. While practical procedures such as documentation for the next stage of negotiations remain, the market landscape could change significantly if China actually implements its promises.
Trump drew a line, stating that “decoupling (complete separation) is not desired by either country.” Even if negotiations break down, there will be no return to 145% tariffs; however, the possibility of high tariffs exceeding 30% remains.
In particular, tariffs on steel and aluminum are the “Maginot Line” for the US, and these areas are not up for discussion. He also dismissed the possibility of quotas for some items.
Additionally, he mentioned the possibility of a “big deal” involving tariff reductions on Chinese goods if China stops supplying fentanyl raw materials.
The establishment of an independent organization (US-China joint monitoring body) in the future could help gauge the timing of tariff easing.

2. Trump’s Middle East Tour – AI Chip Deal with Accompanying CEOs Attracts Attention

President Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia, accompanied by CEOs of US mega-corporations including Musk (X, SpaceX, XAI), Amazon, Lucid, Blackstone, Qualcomm, and Honeywell.
During the tour, he is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, holding large-scale investment attraction negotiations and forums.
The top economic issue in the Middle East is whether to lift restrictions on AI semiconductor (Nvidia, AMD) exports. There is a growing possibility that the Trump administration will lift the AI chip export restrictions to the Middle East that were imposed under the Biden administration.
The adoption of a Saudi Arabian “data embassy” model (an idea for data centers applying US law) is being discussed as a US government safeguard.
Saudi Arabia aims to attract $1 trillion in investment from the US, using access to AI chips as bait. This is due to the deepening financial difficulties of large projects such as NEOM City.

3. Upgraded US and Global Stock Market Outlook – Goldman Sachs/HSBC Comments Summary

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,100 points (from 5,900 previously), expecting a high of 6,500 within 12 months.
Positive reasons: Better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, upward revision of the US economic growth rate (0.5%→1%), and an expected 7% growth in EPS.
Despite the burden of a PER of around 21, it is interpreted that there is room for further gains as large funds such as hedge funds and system funds have not yet fully entered the market.
HSBC: Emphasized buy signals, citing recent rapid progress in US-China negotiations and a clear recovery in fundamental economic indicators.
Yardeni Research: Reduced the probability of recession from 45% to 25% (normal level) and also raised the S&P 500 target to 6,500.

4. Slightly Cautious Views on the Stock Market – UBS, etc.

UBS: Downgraded US stocks from “attractive” to “neutral,” judging that additional momentum has weakened due to the entry into a phase of short-term profit-taking.
They cited the need for a US-China negotiation settlement and new economic stimulus measures from China for further gains.

5. CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Inflation Diagnosis

The US CPI in April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since 2021. Core CPI was 2.8%, returning to levels before the spring of 2021.
Food -0.4% (largest drop in 5 years), end of eggflation? Egg prices -12.7% (monthly, largest drop in 40 years).
Some increases in energy (natural gas, etc.), housing costs +0.3% rebound.
Slowdown in airfare and US travel demand detected (airfares decreased sharply for two consecutive months).
Overall, price stability is evident despite the initial reflection of tariff impacts.

6. Key Issues for Individual Companies

Boeing: Chinese government lifts Boeing purchase ban, risk mitigation → positive signal.
Coinbase: Inclusion in the S&P 500, symbolizing the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies. Expansion through acquisition of Dubai exchange.
UnitedHealth: Lowered earnings guidance and CEO resignation, soaring healthcare costs due to medical expenses and hacking risks since the pandemic.
Economic information channels on Telegram, etc., are also worth checking out.

7. Increased Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts

Following the CPI announcement, expectations for interest rate cuts increased. The probability of consecutive cuts next month and the following month increased slightly (35.9%→37%).
The expectation of a reversal in the Fed’s interest rate policy has revived.

< Summary >

A concise summary of the substantial implications of the US-China tariff truce, the potential impact of Trump’s Middle East tour and AI chip deals on global industries and markets, the US economic indicators and stock market forecasts, news from major individual corporations, and interest rate prospects.

Comprehensive coverage of changes in the investment and economic landscape, including progress in US-China negotiations, expansion of AI chip supply in the Middle East, US S&P500 and key company news, global inflation trends, and interest rate policy movements.

Global Economic Outlook 2024, US-China Tariff Changes and Middle East AI Chip Deals, Complete Overview of US Stock Market and Price Trends

The US and China agreed on market opening in tariff negotiations, showing progress in discussions to eliminate major non-tariff barriers during the 90-day truce period. President Trump’s Middle East tour is expected to initiate the full-scale expansion of AI semiconductor supply, potentially leading to the inflow of US chips from Nvidia, AMD, etc., into Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In this process, the US economic growth rate and S&P500 forecast (up to 6,500) have been significantly upgraded, positively shifting investment sentiment. The US CPI in April was 2.3%, reducing inflationary pressure, and food prices, including eggs, recorded the largest drop in 40 years. As expectations for interest rate cuts spread, the possibility of a stock market rally has increased. News from major companies such as Boeing and Coinbase has also been actively reflected, making it essential to check changes in the global investment environment.