● Tesla Model 2: Game Changer?
<h4>2024 US-China Tariff Relief News, Tesla Beneficiary Analysis, and Future Electric Vehicle Market Prospects</h4>
<h3>Key Points Covered in This Article</h3>
- Specifically addresses how the US-China tariff relief deal will change electric vehicles (especially Tesla) and key industries.
- Examines Tesla's stock price and performance trends, and the current status of game-changer projects such as the robotaxi and Model 2.
- Analyzes Tesla's strategic advantages and market reactions in the short and long term.
- Discusses the ripple effects on other global growth stocks, including software, AI, and cybersecurity.
- Summarizes the risk points investors should watch out for and the expected scenarios afterward.
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<h3>1. Summary of the Major Aspects of the US-China Tariff Relief in May 2024</h3>
- The US lowered tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles/batteries/parts from 145% to 30%.
- China also reduced tariffs on US products from 125% to 10%.
- Temporary easing of rare earth export restrictions, stabilizing the supply of core materials.
- All these measures are effective immediately (trial application for 90 days from 5/14).
- Positive signals for electric vehicles and high-growth technology stocks, along with easing global trade tensions.
<h3>2. Direct Impact on Tesla</h3>
- Reduced production costs
- Using Chinese parts and batteries in overseas factories, including the Fremont factory.
- Reduced import costs due to tariff cuts → Increased margin per vehicle.
- Stable supply chain for raw materials/parts
- Reduced risk of disruptions in the supply of rare earth elements and battery materials.
- Increased possibility of stable production for next-generation projects such as the Optimus robot and robotaxi.
- Enhanced competitiveness and sales recovery in the Chinese market
- Regained price competitiveness for high-end electric vehicles such as Model S and X.
- Expect increased sales due to subsidy policies and expanded imports of LFP batteries.
- Enhanced premium image of global brand/technology/production capacity.
<h3>3. Tesla Stock Price Trends & Market Expectations</h3>
- Currently, the stock price surpassed $300 as of May 2024, closing at $318.6 (up 6.82% from the previous day).
- Strong upward trend with a 13.6% increase in 1 week and a 26.14% increase in 1 month.
- Still at -21% year-to-date (YTD), requiring an additional 53% increase to reach its peak.
- Strong short covering and buying sentiment due to this tariff news, shifting investment sentiment centered on Wall Street.
<h3>4. Check on Model 2, Robotaxi, Next-Generation Growth Engines</h3>
- Model 2 (low-cost electric vehicle in the $25,000 range)
- Prototype testing spotted at the Texas Gigafactory.
- Signals of production cost innovation using low-cost Chinese batteries such as LFP.
- Interpretation that it is in the final stages before mass production and the launch is imminent.
- Preparing to target both the US and Chinese markets simultaneously.
- Robot Taxi/Optimus Robot
- Expectations are rising ahead of the news before the June launch.
- Building autonomous driving chips, AI software, and high value-added platform models.
- Wall Street expects the related market to reach $2 trillion by 2030, re-spotlighting Tesla with the acquisition of new growth engines.
<h3>5. Impact on Other Global Growth Stocks</h3>
- Technology/AI/Cybersecurity Stocks
- Inflow of buying sentiment due to this trade agreement.
- Nvidia, Palantir, ServiceNow, Oracle, and Microsoft are short-term beneficiaries.
- Highlighting the importance of software companies, expanding the use of AI and data.
- Short-term variables such as exchange rate issues and government fiscal tightening also exist.
- Overall Global Electric Vehicle Industry
- Improved costs and competitiveness.
- Tesla maintains leadership with Chinese government subsidies + global production network.
- Continued competition with Chinese brands such as BYD and CATL.
<h3>6. Investment Risks and Long-Term Outlook</h3>
- Tariff reduction is temporarily applied for 90 days, uncertain long-term effects.
- Possible re-fluctuations depending on changes in political/policy directions, such as the Trump administration.
- Uncertainties remain, such as price competition and new car launches.
- However, strategic advantages such as innovation leadership, global supply chain optimization, and platform business expansion continue.
---
<h3>< Summary ></h3>
Expectations for the electric vehicle industry, especially Tesla, are increasing due to the 2024 US-China trade tariff relief.
Tesla is preparing the groundwork for new businesses such as production cost reduction ↓, supply chain stabilization, Model 2, and robotaxi.
Ripple effects on AI/tech stocks, and rapid changes in the global market competition structure.
Short-term rebound is strong, but policy variable risks remain.
Tesla's strategy and market response will determine future stock prices and the future landscape.
---
<h3>[Related Articles...]</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%85%8C%EC%8A%AC%EB%9D%BC">Tesla, Model 2 Launch Imminent? Low-Cost Electric Vehicle Strategy and Global Market Game</a></li>
<li><a href="https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B4%80%EC%84%B8">US-China Tariff Cuts, Summary of Ripple Effects on the Electric Vehicle Industry</a></li>
</ul>
*YouTube Source: [오늘의 테슬라 뉴스]
– 테슬라 모델2 드디어 실물 포착! 3천만 원대 전기차 출시 임박? 전기차 시장 뒤집을 결정적 한 수!
● Tariff Relief, A Bigger Threat Looms
<h4>Ray Dalio's Latest Insights: Summary of Global Economic Changes and Investment Survival Strategies</h4>
**Key Points Covered in This Article**
<ul>
<li>Analysis of why the US-China conflict and trade war erupted, and the essence of changes in the world order</li>
<li>Interpretation of the current situation and the 5 key factors of 'world order changes' noted by Ray Dalio</li>
<li>Crisis signs for each cycle, patterns of change in debt-domestic conflict-international conflict-technology-natural disasters</li>
<li>'De-globalization' unlike the past, diversification tips more important than investment timing</li>
<li>Cash is trash theory, practical asset allocation strategies and perspectives on protecting your assets</li>
</ul>
<h3>1. 5 Structural Changes Shaking the World Order</h3>
What Ray Dalio has recently emphasized is not simply 'tariffs' but the 5 key factors that govern the world order.
Specifically, they are **debt·currency, domestic conflict, international conflict, natural disasters, and technological development.**
All five of these factors are at inflection points right now.
<h3>2. Recent Changes and Significance of Each Factor</h3>
**① Debt/Currency Structure**<br>
- The US, leading the way, repeats peaks in short-term/long-term debt cycles, and the peaks continue to rise.
- As the Fed and the government shoulder the debt every time there is a recession, even new debt solutions are now running out.
- In this situation, weakening of asset/currency hegemony, debt freezes, capital controls, and currency reset (CBDC, etc.) issues are becoming reality.
**② Domestic Conflict**<br>
- Countries at the end of their growth experience increasing polarization of distribution and values, leading to failure of political compromise → regression of the rule of law → tendency towards extreme leaders and fascist rule
- Recent political and social divisions in the US, and policy gridlock, fall into this category
- The more severe the domestic economic imbalance, the more intense the social crisis structure becomes
**③ International Conflict**<br>
- From a multilateral system under US hegemony in the 20th century → now reverting to each one doing their own thing, unilateralism
- The Russia-Ukraine war, the US-China conflict, and the new Cold War are material evidence
- Existing alliance/block systems are collapsing, and the landscape is fluid, moving according to national interests
**④ Natural Disasters**<br>
- The number of climate crises and disasters, and the scale of damage, have been steadily increasing for 50 years
- Increased uncertainty and additional costs shake the global economic system
**⑤ Technological Development**<br>
- Innovations such as AI are positive in the long term, but are accompanied by innovation bubbles (same as previous dot-com bubbles, railway bubbles, etc.)
- Currently, technology and innovation are one of the few good aspects of the economy
- However, the pattern of technology explosion → bubble formation → low growth risk is often repeated
<h3>3. Background and Prospects of the Trade War</h3>
- It is virtually impossible for the US government to revive manufacturing and escape the debt crisis through tariffs.
- It is necessary to recognize the reality of declining productivity of the majority of the US labor force and lagging behind in global manufacturing competitiveness
- China and emerging countries are armed with production technology and efficiency
- De-globalization, supply chain dependency readjustment, and 'financial instability' are highly likely to become a reality
<h3>4. Investment Strategy – Diversify Instead of Focusing on Market Timing! (Ray Dalio's Actual Survival Method)</h3>
- Ray Dalio concludes that 'diversification' was the only survival method in the economic crises of the past few decades (911, financial crisis, COVID, etc.)
- 'Cash is trash' – it only melts away due to inflation, and if assets are not distributed, the real value disappears
- Do not leave more than 50% of your living expenses in cash, but divide them into various assets (stocks, bonds, real assets, etc.)
- Market timing predictions are prone to emotional flow and have high implementation difficulty↑
<h3>5. Conclusion – Investor's Attitude in the Face of a Completely New Order</h3>
- The 'US unipolar order' pattern after 1945 no longer applies
- Do not blindly believe in past data and success patterns, as the game itself will change in the medium to long term
- However, in the short term, 'inertia movement' still exists depending on human psychology
- Clearly understand your investment clock/target value and period, and half of your success will be achieved by simply keeping the basics of diversification and asset defense
- Be sure to keep in mind key words such as macroeconomics, global financial crisis, diversification, world order, and asset allocation
< Summary >
Ray Dalio sees the essence of the US-China conflict and trade war as the fact that the 5 major world order factors have entered a new phase.
Debt, domestic and foreign conflicts, and technology and natural disasters all show clear signs of crisis and change.
For investment, diversification is the only survival strategy instead of market timing.
Risk of cash bias, asset allocation is essential.
In a market where patterns after 1945 have been broken, investors' cold-blooded thinking is required.
[Related Articles...]
<ul>
<li><a href="https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%AF%B8%EC%A4%91">Insights on US-China Hegemony Competition and Changes in the Global Investment Environment</a></li>
<li><a href="https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%B6%84%EC%82%B0">2024 Investment Strategy: Diversification and Building a Global Asset Portfolio</a></li>
</ul>
*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]
– [먼슬리구루] 관세 끝나니까 좋아? 그보다 더 무서운게 있는데? [4월 1부-레이 달리오]
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