URGENT: Is Samsung About to CRUSH TSMC’s Semiconductor Lead?

● Musk-Game On, US-China-Jackpot

2024 Global Economic Direction: US-China Trade Negotiations, Trump Market Signals, Tesla and Future Industrial Structure Changes

In today’s post, we will systematically organize recent major global issues, especially the US-China trade negotiation breakthrough, market signals from former President Trump, and how future trends presented by Tesla and Elon Musk are leading structural changes in the global economy, stock market, and high-tech industries, in chronological order. We cover all key points, from tariff changes and policy shifts in both countries to the representative industrial structure momentum of Amazon and Tesla. In particular, the content introduced today provides insights that investors in the stock market, business strategy, advanced software market, AI, and robotics innovation must read.

1. Latest US-China Trade Agreement and Global Impact

1-1. Tariff Reduction Specifics & Fentanyl Tariff Points

– The US and China agreed to suspend and reduce existing high tariffs for 90 days.
– The US reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, and China also reduced tariffs from 125% to 10%.
– Of the US’s 30% tariff, 10% is existing, and an additional 20% is a punitive tariff on fentanyl (a raw material for narcotic painkillers).
– In this negotiation, China promised to take a more active approach to fentanyl countermeasures, and the US maintained the punitive tariff.
– As a result, tariff conflicts have been dramatically eased, significantly reducing the burden on global supply chains and corporate costs.

1-2. Signals of Easing Tension and Stock Market Flow Transition

– The atmosphere is such that the tension between the US and China is being resolved with the declaration of a ‘suspension of retaliation’ between the two countries.
– In the stock market, it is structurally the same phase as the stock price jump momentum of companies that have ‘turned from deficit to surplus’ or ‘low-margin to high-margin structure’ in the past.
– Matches past structural transition cases of large tech stocks such as Amazon and Tesla.

2. Amazon’s Performance and Industrial Structure ‘Margin Transition’ Case

2-1. Amazon North America, International vs AWS (Cloud)

– In Amazon’s performance, logistics/retail (North America/Global) has a large proportion of sales, but the profit margin is extremely low.
– Cloud (AWS) accounts for less than 1/3 of sales, but is responsible for more than 70% of operating profit.
– High-margin structure through hardware→service/AI/cloud transition becomes the basis for long-term stock price growth and future valuation.

3. Tesla and Software, AI, Robotaxi Innovation

3-1. FSD and Robotaxi, Future Revenue Structure

– Tesla overcomes hardware limitations through FSD (Full Self-Driving) software, aiming for an IT software-type margin of over 70%.
– When robotaxis are fully commercialized, the structure creates revenue equivalent to 3 taxi drivers per vehicle, transitioning from the existing ‘end after sale’ industry model to a ‘continuous revenue structure’.
– Waymo also generates $250 million in annual sales with 1,500 vehicles in operation, and Tesla is expected to disrupt this market much faster.
– Expectations are being reflected for the acceleration of the FSD/robotaxi business when regulations are lifted in the US-China-Europe around June.

3-2. Valuation Trends Reflecting the Future

– Stock valuation should be based on future earning and scalability, not past earning.
– Tech stocks and growth stocks are re-evaluated as the probability of future realization increases. The same goes for Tesla’s AI and robotics business.
– Tesla’s new low-cost car (based on Model Y) is scheduled for mass production and global expansion in 2025.

4. Non-Tariff Barrier Issues and Intellectual Property, Entertainment Unfairness Controversy

– US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin points out China’s non-tariff barriers and closed market.
– The US has already taken measures to restrict Huawei, Nvidia, etc., but China’s long-term SNS, software, intellectual property rights, and patent issues are more serious.
– Although a ‘normalization’ momentum appears with the trade agreement, resolving these barriers remains a key factor in the prospect of additional growth.

5. Elon Musk’s ‘Economic Signal’ and Artificial Intelligence/Energy Strategy

– Musk’s remarks “Time to start the game” and “Something big is coming” are actually deepening the AI, robotics, and energy innovation scenario.
– Tesla, awaiting FSD global entry permit & Robotics (Optimus) → Long-term revenue structure and industrial landscape reorganization are expected.
– Synergies such as Starship-terawatt-level energy production and solar power utilization are also being discussed in connection.

6. Summary of Future Value Capture and Investment Plan

– In global economic/financial strategy, tariff easing, industrial structure transition, and high-margin new business scalability such as AI, cloud, and robotics are important.
– Focus on long-term value and investment momentum in the midst of changing trends, not past performance, but future realization potential.
– Like the case of representative companies such as Tesla and Amazon, reading the flow of change and maintaining a mid- to long-term position even during short-term adjustments can secure substantial fruits.

7. Conclusion and Investment Implications

– A comprehensive perspective is needed, from improved US-China trade negotiations to structural changes in large tech stocks and future investment hints from top executives such as Elon Musk.
– Even if short-term shocks and high-point adjustment sections are repeated, a strategy focused on industrial structure changes and future profitability will bring the greatest long-term benefits.

< Summary >

US-China trade negotiations, tariff reductions and suspension of retaliation for 90 days, additional tariffs maintained due to fentanyl issues.
Expectations for recovery of stock prices, investment sentiment, and industrial structure confidence are expanding as a result.
The importance of high-margin structure transition seen in the cases of Amazon and Tesla, and future earning prospects are the valuation criteria.
Expansion of the AI/software/robotics market and easing of regulations will soon become next-generation revenue sources.
In the end, it is possible to secure substantial investment value by reading future changes and focusing on mid- to long-term momentum.

2024 Global Economic Outlook, US-China Trade Agreement, Tesla AI and Robotics Business, Industrial Structure Change, Investment Strategy

US-China Trade, Global Economy, Stock Market, AI Innovation, Robotics

The global economy in 2024 is transitioning from tariff reduction and retaliation escalation to resolution, starting with the US-China trade negotiations.
As seen in the cases of Amazon and Tesla, the industrial shift from low-margin hardware to high-margin cloud, AI, and robotics is key.
Global leaders such as Trump and Elon Musk are giving market signals directly, increasing the sense of prediction.
In the stock market and investment, the expansion of ‘future earning’ and structural change momentum are most important than past performance.
We recommend mid- to long-term positions for next-generation industrial structure changes, US-China-Europe regulation easing, and investment environment improvements.

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*YouTube Source: [허니잼의 테슬라와 일론]

– 일론 머스크 자신감이 넘친다! “게임을 시작할 시간, 큰 거 오는 시간” / 미중협상, 왜 대박인가?

● Samsung’s Self-Inflicted Crisis, TSMC’s Dominance

TSMC and U.S. Expansion, and the Global Foundry Competition: TSMC, Samsung, and the Future of Semiconductors

The Significance and Issues of TSMC’s Arizona Plant Construction

– Recently, TSMC completed its second factory in Arizona, USA, and also commenced the construction of its third factory.
– The groundbreaking of the third factory in the U.S. to coincide with the 100th day of Trump’s inauguration was a strategic and political event mindful of both domestic and international considerations.
– The expansion of production bases in the U.S. is intertwined with geopolitics, the reorganization of the semiconductor supply chain, and changes in semiconductor policies in the U.S., EU, and China.
– TSMC’s management structure is divided into a ‘Chairman’ (Chairman of the Board, overseeing external affairs) and a ‘President’ (responsible for management, overseeing internal affairs).
– The key is a global market, responding to leaders of each country, and an investment strategy that does not rely on government subsidies (such as the CHIPS Act).
– Morris Chang’s statement that “the era of the free market economy is over, global management in the world of geopolitics” shows the essence of today’s semiconductor competition.

TSMC and Samsung Electronics: Investment, Competition, and Government Subsidy Policies

– TSMC’s U.S. investment (up to $165 billion) and similar U.S. investment plans by Korean semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics.
– However, TSMC clearly stated that “U.S. subsidies do not have a significant impact on investment decisions.”
– Conversely, some Korean companies, including Samsung, are greatly concerned about the uncertainty and risks associated with changes in U.S. subsidies, such as the CHIPS Act.
– The core decision-making background of TSMC is “the market itself” and “strengthening ties with Taiwanese society.”
– The entrepreneurship of growing together with the country and society is trusted by the majority of Taiwanese people.

Yield and Process Innovation: Global Production, Digital Twins, and TSMC’s Competitiveness Structure

– Advanced semiconductor yield issues at overseas factories (especially in the U.S.) are always controversial, but TSMC has successfully stabilized the yield of its U.S. factory.
– Global synchronization of Taiwan-U.S. production lines, and the implementation of ‘digital twins’ to achieve the same quality in any factory, in any country.
– Systematic management and sharing are in progress in terms of factory standards, internal IT systems, and the accumulation of know-how.
– Continuous process innovation and improvement (such as existing FinFET processes), focusing on maintaining quality and reliability rather than the speed of innovation.
– Customized foundry strategy for each customer, providing feedback and improvement support for design issues and problems of each customer.
– In contrast, competitors such as Samsung have faced difficulties in attempting a ‘reverse in one shot’ strategy (such as the GAA process).

Corporate Culture and Global Competitiveness: TSMC vs Samsung, and the Current State of the Korean Semiconductor Industry

– TSMC’s principle of not competing with customers, a customer-first culture, and establishing the spirit of being in a subordinate position (乙).
– Accumulation of diverse semiconductor manufacturing experiences from various customers as independent competitiveness and database.
– Old production lines are also left for low-cost services for ‘startup customers’ to attract new customers and secure potential growth.
– Many global perspectives indicate that the technology, operation, and cultural gap between Samsung and TSMC in the global foundry market is widening.
– Domestic media and industry have the perception that ‘we can catch up with a little effort’, but the reality is changing.
– SK Hynix, TSMC, Nvidia, etc. are strengthening cooperation, and the foundry is changing into a cooperation/division of labor structure.
– Samsung has also begun to outsource some products to TSMC’s foundry.

Korean Semiconductors, the Need for Change and Global Response Strategy

– There is a growing need for domestic large corporations to adapt quickly to corporate culture, customer response methods, and market changes.
– In the U.S., China, and Taiwan, responsible CEOs openly explain their vision, strategy, and plans to strengthen market and public communication.
– Korean companies face increasing difficulties in responding to global innovation trends due to closed cultures and emphasis only on internal growth.
– The global semiconductor industry is a battlefield where geopolitics (U.S.-China conflict, U.S. CHIPS Act, supply chain reorganization, etc.), economic crisis, and technological innovation intersect.
– Not only affection and patriotism but also facing reality, recognizing internal limitations, and requiring changes in the DNA itself.
– It is essential to wisely refer to TSMC’s case, focus on new strategies based on cooperation and improvement, and strengthen digital competitiveness.

TSMC has solidified its position as the number one in the semiconductor industry with successful yields and system innovation up to its U.S. factory, and customer-centered global foundry competitiveness. The secrets are ties with Taiwanese society, geopolitical global investment, internal innovation, and systematic data management. On the other hand, Korean companies such as Samsung are limited by changes in subsidy policies and internal culture. The global semiconductor industry is expanding competition and cooperation, and geopolitics and technological innovation are key. A shift in the perception of reality and improvement of the constitution are essential for the domestic semiconductor industry.

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