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● IMF, OECD: 2025 Crisis Looms, Korea at Risk

2024-2025 World Economy: Summary of Tariff War and Emerging Market Crisis Scenarios

The key keywords we must check for the global economy in 2024-2025 are "uncertainty of tariff war," "possibility of economic crisis from emerging countries," "latest economic forecasts from OECD and IMF," "stagflation pressure," and "variables in interest rate policy transition."

Reading this article, you can learn about:
The structure and ripple effects of the tariff war, the difference in impact between emerging and developed countries, the implications of export dependence relative to GDP, the risks of emerging market bonds maturing, major countries' interest rate and inflation prospects, and even extreme scenarios of U.S.-China conflict.
We will thoroughly examine the perspectives of global investment banks (IB), international organizations, and the OECD, as well as the latest statistics and trends, and the signals we should really pay attention to.

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2024-2026 Global Economic Uncertainty: Structural Risks Highlighted by Tariff War

Tariff war uncertainty is at its peak right now.
With the start of Trump's second term, the card of mutual tariffs is becoming a reality, maximizing tension in the global supply chain.
The OECD report presents expected shocks in all trade and import/export items (automobiles, machinery, petrochemicals, electronics, steel, aluminum, agriculture, fisheries, etc.).
The world's average growth rate is being steadily adjusted downward (from 3.3% to 3.1% in 2025, from 3.3% to 3.0% in 2026).
Repeated tariff increases (especially centered on the United States, Mexico, Canada, and China) are emerging as factors that weaken the global economy in the medium to long term.

Economic Shock to Export-Dependent Countries: Developed vs. Emerging Countries

The countries most affected by tariffs are Mexico and Canada, which are highly dependent on the United States, and emerging countries such as Korea, Vietnam, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Malaysia, which are highly dependent on exports.
Emerging countries are particularly at risk:

• Economic structure driven by exports
• Direct hit from the repercussions of mutual tariffs between the U.S. and China
• Large amounts of foreign currency-denominated bonds maturing in 2025-26
  If exports are blocked in this situation, companies and governments will have difficulty repaying maturing bonds, raising concerns about the realization of a 'Tequila Effect' (national chain crisis) scenario.

Tariff War and the Global Financial Environment: Interest Rate/Price/Monetary Policy Variables

Tariff war → rising costs → stimulating prices (inflation), the disinflation scenario collapses.
The majority view is that the U.S./major countries will stop cutting interest rates by 2025, and even the Fed will have difficulty with further cuts.
The same goes for Europe.
Companies are facing a 'triple wave' of high interest rates, sluggish exports, and maturing bonds.
Cannot lower interest rates → Increased burden of maturing bonds → Increased possibility of serial defaults in emerging countries↑

U.S. Economy as Seen Through Real Indicators: Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation Outlook

Global investment banks (IB) all see increased volatility (widened upper and lower limits) in the U.S. economy and major countries' real growth rates, unemployment rates, and prices.
United States: Growth slowdown in 2025-26 is the baseline, and negative growth cannot be ruled out in extreme cases.
The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5-5% in 2025-26.
Prices are open to the possibility of freezing interest rates or even raising them further.
In conclusion, the global economy, including the U.S., is diagnosed as being in a "protracted period of low growth + increased volatility, rather than a sharp growth or a major collapse."

Worst-Case Scenario for U.S.-China Conflict: Geopolitical Risk and the Possibility of Dramatic Reconciliation

Tariff war, U.S.-China mutual retaliation 'chicken game' aspect.
In extreme cases, even geopolitical disputes such as the Taiwan Strait are considered (promoting economic crisis).
However, the possibility of dramatic reconciliation in the medium to long term is partially open.
If the U.S. and China go to war, a global depression will become a reality, but the market wants signs of dramatic reconciliation (such as tariff easing) before it goes to actual battle.
At the time of reconciliation, a sharp reversal in the capital market could be triggered.

What’s Left for the Korean Economy/Emerging Countries?

Korea has high export, U.S., and Chinese dependence.
Double exposure to the U.S. (like Mexico and Canada) and China's hegemony competition.
As a result, the growth outlook for 2025-26 is lowered (2.1→1.5%, etc.).
Emerging countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America also have a complex risk of tariff + bond maturity + interest rate burden, which is highly contagious.
There are also concerns about regional chain crises such as the Tequila Effect → IMF/Asian financial crisis.

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Future Global Investment and Policy Directions

1. It is necessary to comprehensively examine growth potential and crisis possibilities by region, focusing on tariff war variables.
2. Special attention should be paid to emerging countries with high short-term bond maturities/export dependence.
3. When investing in various assets, 'scenario-based' portfolio/risk management is essential due to the presence of volatility and uncertainty.
4. The weight of the scenario of low growth stagnation in the world economy/Korean economy is increasing.

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< Summary >
Global economy in 2024-2026, tariff war causes peak uncertainty.
Growth slowdown, rising prices, and increased volatility in monetary policy.
High risk of contagion of economic crisis originating from emerging countries (bond maturity issue).
Korea is also facing complex risks such as exports and exchange rates.
Whether the U.S.-China conflict will dramatically shift (reconciliation/conflict) is also a variable.
Both investment and policy have uncertainty, so scenario-based response is essential.

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2024-2025 World Economic Outlook: Complete Analysis of Tariff War Uncertainty, Emerging Market Crisis Risks, and Latest OECD/IMF Reports

The global economy in 2024-26 faces structural volatility, including the risk of low growth stagnation and stagflation brought about by the ‘tariff war’, the risk of emerging countries’ maturing bond defaults, and global financial instability.
Complete summary of the latest OECD/IMF reports/statistics and global investment bank (IB) analysis, focusing on key keywords such as tariff war, economic outlook, global economy, emerging market crisis, and interest rate policy.
Provides insights needed by actual investors and policymakers, including a Korea-centric perspective, chain crises originating from emerging countries, and extreme/reconciliation scenarios of U.S.-China conflict.

[Related Articles…]

• Impact of Tariff War on Korean Manufacturing and Practical Response
• 2024 Emerging Market Economic Outlook: Structural Risks and Investment Opportunities

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