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● Economy Shock, JPMorgan Quits? Tesla’s Fate, Last Chance?

U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade, Tesla’s Future, and the Upheaval in Global Financial Markets

1. Key Points Covered in This Article

U.S. credit rating downgrade (Moody’s) issue and its impact
Tesla stock price and a summary of Elon Musk’s response capabilities
Economic outlook for 2025, including rising interest rates, recession, and stagflation
Tesla’s low-cost electric vehicle ‘Model 2’ vs. Apple in 2008, possibility of opportunity amid crisis
JP Morgan’s warning, detailed analysis of U.S. consumption and financial market trends
Tesla’s long-term future vision (FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, and AI)
After reading this article, you can understand everything from the core of the U.S. economic crisis to Tesla’s strategy and actual investment decision points.

2. Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating: Warning Signals Have Begun

Last Friday, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one notch from AAA to AA1.
The main reasons are the poor national financial structure, including the U.S. fiscal deficit ($1.05 trillion), the federal government’s accumulated debt (exceeding $34 trillion), and the expected annual interest expense of $1 trillion.
Immediately after the news, the market fluctuated sharply, and technology stocks such as Tesla plummeted in over-the-counter trading.
The 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.5%, increasing the possibility of further increases in the future.
The credit rating downgrade has an impact on the U.S. dollar hegemony, financial market stability, demand for government bonds, and global investment sentiment.

3. Chain Crisis in the U.S. Economy: Rising Interest Rates, Weakened Consumption, Recession Scenario

Credit rating downgrade + high interest rates (increased Treasury bond yields) cause an increase in all-round capital procurement costs.
For companies, especially technology stocks with high expectations for future growth (such as Tesla), this puts strong pressure on stock prices.
Tesla has already experienced a sharp drop of -65% during the interest rate hikes in 2022.
Actual indicators such as rising U.S. consumer credit card delinquency rates, household debt exceeding $17 trillion, and corporate investment contraction are also deteriorating in a chain reaction.
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon predicts a 50% chance of a recession in 2025, also pointing out the risk of stagflation (the worst-case scenario in which growth stops and only prices rise).
The climax of a complex crisis structure including a U.S.-led recession, a weaker dollar, global trade war/geopolitical risks, and inflation.

4. Tesla’s Risks and Opportunities: Model 2 Strategy, and Similarities with Apple

Rising interest rates → Concerns that demand for high-priced durable goods such as electric vehicles will be hit first.
Tesla is also inevitably under pressure on its stock price in the short term, with major investment institutions (HSBC, JP Morgan) warning of a decline to $120~115.
However, like Apple’s past strategy, Tesla is preparing to release a low-cost model during the recession (Model 2, expected at $25,000 to $30,000).
Just as Apple succeeded in popularizing smartphones with the low-cost iPhone 3G model during the 2008 financial crisis, Tesla aims to popularize electric vehicles with price destruction.
Competitive production costs, AI/factory automation, and innovative investment capabilities are the best in the industry.
If a low-cost EV ‘Model 2’ comes out during the recession, the possibility of surpassing traditional powerhouses like Volkswagen/Toyota will become a reality.

5. Elon Musk’s Proactive Response and Tesla’s Future Growth Vision

Elon Musk has been warning of the U.S. debt and inflation crisis since 2021.
Tesla has sufficient physical strength to defend against the crisis, including a safe financial structure and increased free cash flow.
It is not just an EV (electric vehicle) company, but is expanding innovation with a new business lineup including FSD (Full Self-Driving), Robotaxi, and humanoid robots (Optimus).
Model 2 is scheduled to be officially unveiled in the first half of 2025, and the Robotaxi service is scheduled to launch in June.
In particular, there is the possibility of entering the fields of Robotaxi, AI, and robotics. If successful, it can make a major leap forward into an ‘automobile → AI platform’ company.

6. Investor Perspective: Both Danger & Opportunity Exist Now

Short term (several months to 1 year): Caution should be exercised when investing in Tesla (and tech stocks) due to high interest rates and sluggish consumption. Downward pressure on stock prices and market uncertainty are very high.
Long term (3 to 5 years): Whether new growth engines such as Model 2, Robotaxi, FSD, and robots are implemented may create an opportunity for a major stock price reversal.
In moments of crisis, the act of investing in long-term innovative companies when others are afraid often creates the best returns.

7. Conclusion

Tesla’s ‘survival & leap forward’ strategy amid the U.S. credit rating downgrade and global financial crisis-level shock is similar to Apple’s in 2008.
Although short-term risks are high, mid- to long-term innovation capabilities, new market development, and vertical expansion such as AI/robots deserve to be evaluated for their best potential value.
Holding or newly purchasing Tesla stock requires a careful approach according to your investment propensity, time frame, and crisis response capabilities.
Tesla’s performance in the second half of this year to the first half of 2025, and the success of Model 2 and Robotaxi will be game changers.

< Summary >
As the U.S. credit rating is downgraded and the economic crisis continues, Tesla is creating future opportunities with new businesses such as Model 2, Robotaxi, and AI at the same time as the risk of recession. In the short term, there is high pressure on the stock price, but the long-term innovation strategy is a key factor that can enable a major turnaround like Apple did in the past during a crisis. Investment decisions should be made carefully, and the results of Tesla's new businesses are expected to dominate the market landscape in the future.

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