Soros’ Market Instincts

● **”Sniffing Out Wealth”**

George Soros’ Investment Intuition: How to Read the Other Side of the Market

What are the main topics covered in this article?

From the anecdote of legendary investor George Soros’s envious “gut instinct,”
to the pitfalls of collective behavior in the global financial market,
how to discern trends in asset markets such as stocks and bonds,
and practical experience and examples to cultivate your own market sense.
In today’s article, we summarize investment psychology, global economic outlook, financial crisis precursors,
and signals that beginners should be wary of, all at once.

George Soros’s “Lower Back Signal” Anecdote and Investment Psychology

Soros clearly stated in a Bloomberg interview that “the market will go up.”
But he has a famous anecdote of immediately reversing his position when he comes home and suddenly has a backache.
This means that he valued both ‘logic’ and ‘intuition.’
He outwardly did logical analysis, but his subconscious anxiety (unease) that he couldn’t know empirically sends signals through his body.
In fact, the ‘best’ time for the market is the danger zone.
When most people are optimistic, senior investors become more cautious.
Conversely, the fact that cold-hearted judgment creates opportunities when everyone is afraid is an important point in reading the market.

Public Psychology and Collective Behavior in the Financial Market

There is always a ‘perfect story’ that everyone likes in the market.
Stocks, commodities, and bonds are all cheap, and everyone is happy.
The person who has an uneasy feeling at times like these is the ‘real pro.’
Being swept away by collective psychology leads to significant losses.
The precursors to the Wall Street mega-crises (the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, etc.) also
start with the intuition that “theoretically it’s perfect, but… something is wrong.”

How to Develop Investment Intuition?

In investing, the ability to sense your own ‘anxiety signals’ is important.
There are limits to learning from books or theory.
Closely observe your emotions (anxiety and excitement) and physical reactions from experience, failure, and repeated practice.
It is necessary to accumulate market trends (short-term rallies, overheating, adjustment signals, etc.) in a journal and patternize them.
You must take your own signal messages seriously, such as “I have a bad feeling,” “My back hurts,” and “Something’s wrong.”
The more veteran an investor is, the better this sense is.

Real Cases: The Dangers When the Market Becomes ‘Perfect’

Following real-world examples from before and after the dot-com bubble and the Lehman crisis,
there was mostly clear logic and public conviction.
But within that, only a very few people paid attention to the other side of the market (anxiety and a nagging feeling).
When everyone is making money, a small number quickly realize profits or ‘wait and see.’
This point of view
protects them from massive losses in global financial crises and stock market crashes.

Creating Your Own Investment Note

You have to connect it to concrete action to truly make it your own.
Record market records, emotional changes, and even subtle physical signals in a journal.
Continuously repeat and analyze ‘market trends, your responses, and results.’
That way, your market intuition can become sharper day by day.

Key Summary

– George Soros values both logic and intuition, reflecting even body signals in investment decisions
– When the market is too perfect or everyone is happy, veterans are more cautious
– Experience and self-observation are important to avoid being swept away by collective action and investment psychology in the financial market
– Recording a vast amount of cases and market patterns sharpens your senses in practice
– Unease always follows optimism in global economic issues and financial crisis precursors

Through the anecdote of George Soros, we reinterpret important investment psychology and the pitfalls of collective behavior in the global financial market, as well as the importance of practical experience.
We guide you on how to sense signals when excessive optimism flows in the market and make successful asset management and economic judgments with your own know-how.

George Soros’s Investment Sense, Market Intuition, Collective Behavior, Financial Crisis Precursors, Global Economic Outlook

Key Investment Lessons from George Soros’s Experience

Naturally explaining the best economic blog keywords such as long-term recession, financial market, investment psychology, global economy, and asset management,
and deeply addressing the essence of investment that everyone sympathizes with.

Key Points

Soros’s lower back instinct, signs of market overheating, not being swayed by herd mentality, creating your own investment note,
and know-how to accumulate practical experience.
If you read this article carefully, you will gain the real financial sense key points that will help you every time there is an economic crisis.

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*YouTube Source: [와이스트릿 – 지식과 자산의 복리효과]

– 돈 냄새 기가 막히게 맡는 방법 / 홍춘욱 대표

● Tariff Fears Subside, US-EU Trade Talks Resume

<h4>Trump Postpones 50% Tariff on EU by One Month! Global Market Impact and Investment Insights</h4>


<h3>1. Key Points Covered in This Article</h3>
- Background and significance of President Trump postponing the 50% tariff imposition deadline on EU goods to July 9
- Signals indicating the start of full-scale US-EU trade negotiations
- Immediate movements in global bond and financial markets, especially the government bond market and stock market
- Differentiated perspective on the impact of China-EU tariff issues on the market
- Key points investors should check moving forward


<h3>2. Trump Postpones EU Tariffs - What Has Changed?</h3>
- Trump postponed the imposition of an additional 50% tariff on EU products, originally scheduled for June 1, to July 9, extending it by over a month.
- EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen directly requested an extension from Trump and sent an active message to "start negotiations," which Trump immediately accepted.
- The sudden change in stance within just 48 hours of announcing the tariff deadline suggests intense behind-the-scenes discussions between the two sides.


<h3>3. How Did the Market React?</h3>
- Bond Market: The movement of the US 10-year Treasury yield is crucial.
  - On Friday, long-term interest rates fell due to tariff issues (concerns about economic recession)
  - Today, Treasury yields are rising again following the postponement announcement (reflecting eased concerns)
- Other Market Indicators
  - US futures indices started higher
  - VIX (fear index) declining → supporting the resolution of uncertainty
  - European futures indices, including Germany and France, generally strong
- However, the US stock market is closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Direct reflection can be confirmed at the next opening.


<h3>4. China vs. EU Tariff Issues, Market's Perspective Differs</h3>
- Tariff disputes with China:
  - The market considers it as 'inflationary pressure'
  - Treasury yields ↑ during aggressive tariff mode, Treasury yields ↓ during easing
- Tariff disputes with the EU:
  - The market considers it as 'economic recession risk'
  - Treasury yields ↓ during tariff escalation, Treasury yields ↑ during mitigation/postponement
- Today's bond market movement confirms the above rule.


<h3>5. Future Checkpoints and Investment Implications</h3>
- US-EU trade negotiations expected to begin in earnest by July 9, easing tensions for now
- Potential recovery in investment sentiment in previously plummeting European and Asian stock markets (KOSPI, KOSDAQ, etc.)
- The impact on the US stock market will be reflected on the next trading day. Postponement alone is not a reason for reassurance; attention is needed to the subsequent negotiation process.
- In an environment where investment strategies must be set up with both scenarios of global trade war, inflation, and recession open.


<h3>6. Conclusion: How to View the Global Trade Negotiations and Investment Landscape?</h3>
- Trump's tariff postponement and shift to negotiation mode with the EU immediately reflected in the market
- The nature of trade issues with China and the EU elicit distinctly different market feedback
- US stock market expected to rise but is closed, with European and domestic stock markets reacting first
- From an investor's perspective, it is essential to check the changing variables and the flow of US-EU negotiations in real-time!


<Summary>
US President Trump postponed the 50% tariff imposition deadline on EU goods to July 9. Trade negotiations are expected to begin in earnest following the EU's negotiation request. The market reacted immediately in Treasury yields and the stock market and is digesting China and EU tariff issues in entirely different ways. Investors should closely monitor market reactions related to the global trade war scenario and the progress of US-EU trade negotiations.


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*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]

– [속보] 다시 잦아드는 관세공포. 미국-EU 관세 협상 본격화된다