● Waymo CEO: “Tesla is dangerous” – Robo-Taxi War Begins?

Tesla vs. Waymo, the Battle for Robotaxi Market Dominance: Who Will Win?

1. Clash of the Titans in the Autonomous Robotaxi Market

This article chronologically summarizes the background and context of the heated debate surrounding Tesla’s robotaxi commercialization prospects, Wedbush analyst Ives’s $500 price target for Tesla stock, and Waymo CEO’s unusually strong criticism.
At the heart of the article are the competition to dominate the world’s largest ‘robotaxi market,’ the fundamental differences in autonomous driving technology, the business and expansion strategies of Waymo and Tesla, the essence of the data and AI competition, the reality of actual profitability, and the potential of future stock prices.
Readers’ questions such as ‘Who will be the winner?’, ‘Can Tesla’s stock really break $500?’, and ‘What is the final outcome of the AI and data battle?’ can all be easily answered through this article.

2. Waymo vs. Tesla: Fundamental Differences in Technology and Business Models

Waymo: Conservative Strategy and Safety Leadership Based on LiDAR

• Waymo currently offers commercial services in four locations: Phoenix, San Francisco, LA, and Austin, with the most experience in the industry, having completed over '10 million trips'.
• Highly precise based on LiDAR and high-definition maps, but very expensive (approximately $200,000 per vehicle), with significant cost and geographical constraints whenever expanding to new cities.
• Clear safety proven based on autonomous driving data (zero fatalities in over 7 million miles), but scalability and profitability are still uncertain.
• Conservative partnerships: Collaborations with traditional automotive OEMs such as Chrysler, Jaguar, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and Toyota, with intentions to expand to personal vehicles in the future.

Tesla: Aggressive Expansion and Vision AI for the Win

• Tesla uses a camera and neural network-based Vision AI solution, without LiDAR, collecting real-world data daily from eight cameras + its own OTA software on its vehicles worldwide.
• FSD completion is still at Level 3~4, requiring occasional human intervention, but progress is accelerating through OTA updates and data cloud learning from millions of Tesla vehicles every day.
• Hardware and software are produced in-house (Gigafactory), with a cost of $30,000 to $40,000 per vehicle, advantageous for large-scale production and expansion.
• Market entry strategy: Speed of innovation and massive real-world data, entering into actual revenue generation through trial runs and FSD subscription business in 2025.

3. Each Company’s Strengths and Weaknesses… Why Are the Two Companies So Different?

Waymo's Strengths

• Accident rate and safety, actual commercial service experience, and precise LiDAR/HD map system.
• All data and algorithms developed independently within the U.S., emphasizing history and reliability.

Waymo's Weaknesses

• Limited service by city (reduced scalability), high unit cost, questions about actual profitability, and limitations in AI learning (total data volume).
• Only excels on 'fixed courses'—limitations in handling unexpected situations (reduced flexibility in GPS and map changes, construction, signal changes).

Tesla's Strengths

• Massive learning/updates based on cloud data (daily), absorbing road environment data from around the world, cost competitiveness through hardware/software internalization.
• Pursues human-like AI driving ability focused on 'vision', flexibility in situation judgment, rapid evolution.

Tesla's Weaknesses

• Regulatory risks, Full Self-Driving (FSD) still incomplete (Level 3~4), potential for rapid decline in industry-wide trust in the event of a safety accident (a point raised by Waymo CEO).

4. The Two Companies’ Strategies = Lee Chang-ho vs. Lee Se-dol Go Match

– Waymo Strategy = Lee Chang-ho style (patience, calculation, stable gradual expansion, minimizing risk)
– Tesla Strategy = Lee Se-dol style (rapid entry, creativity, aggressive experimentation, risk-taking)
– Which strategy will ultimately lead to victory in the AI era’s ‘robotaxi market’ depends on the success of data, expansion, and AI advancement within the next 2-3 years.

5. The Battle of Data and AI, and Conclusions from an Investment/Stock Price Perspective

– In the autonomous vehicle market, as data accumulates, performance/reliability/market share all change exponentially.
– Waymo has ‘scalability’ risks, Tesla has ‘trust and safety’ risks: the market gives a premium to safety in the short term and to companies with expansion/data advantages in the medium to long term.
– As of May 2024, Tesla’s stock price is $330. Wall Street, including Wedbush, projects over $500 if robotaxis are successful.
– Google/Waymo has not yet determined a clear revenue model or large-scale expansion plan. The market is increasingly leaning toward Tesla’s radical expansion capabilities and actual revenue performance.

6. Conclusion: Who Will Be the Winner?

– Waymo, transparent and slow but stable, Tesla, changing the market at a relentless pace.
– Not just a simple autonomous vehicle market, but a battle for dominance in the entire AI + mobility market in the future.
– Tesla has a slight advantage in data, scale, and AI generalization.
– However, there is a possibility that Tesla could face a crisis due to a single fatal accident or regulatory risk.
– It is necessary to watch the direction of the Tesla vs. Waymo-led robotaxi market war and the emergence of a new winner in the AI era within the next 1-2 years.

< Summary >
Tesla and Waymo are competing for robotaxi dominance, centered on LiDAR and Vision AI, respectively. Waymo's strengths are safety, reliability, and precision, but scalability and profitability are weaknesses. Tesla's strengths are rapid market dominance and expansion through massive data and hardware/software internalization. However, it carries a high risk of safety accidents and regulatory risks. The market has high expectations for Tesla's radical expansion and data advantage, and the real winner is expected to be decided within 1-2 years.

[Related Articles…]

• Tesla’s AI-Based Robotaxi Market Advancement and Competitive Strategy Analysis
• Waymo’s Autonomous Driving Innovation and Prospects for the US-China AI Mobility Competition

*YouTube Source: [오늘의 테슬라 뉴스]

● AI Boom-Data, Energy Surge

U.S. Alliance Strategy Shift: From Weapons to AI Chips, Unveiling the Core of 21st Century Security

If you're curious about how the U.S. is changing the way it supports its allies, and how this change is impacting the global economy and tech industry, you definitely need to read the following.
The key here is how 'traditional weapons support' is evolving into 'AI chips and data access,' what industries and companies are truly emerging in this shift, and what to watch out for from an investment perspective.
I will specifically explain the U.S.'s strategic changes, the global security environment, the future of the AI chip and data industry, and the resulting economic impacts in chronological order.

1. Past U.S. Strategy: Hardware-Oriented Weapon Supply

The U.S. has been providing advanced weapons such as airplanes and fighter jets to its allies as a means to strengthen their military influence.
From the 1970s to the 2000s, physical weapons such as U.S.-made fighter jets, tanks, and missiles played a key role in ensuring national security.
This was a very important card for the U.S. to maintain its global hegemony and strengthen its alliance system.
This was accompanied by arms races and the growth of the defense industry.

2. The Turning Point of the 21st Century: The Dawn of Cyber Warfare and the AI Era

Cybersecurity threats have become serious since the late 2010s.
As cyberattacks have had results as devastating as physical weapons, information and data security have emerged as key elements of national security.
In particular, the importance of 'data' and 'information infrastructure' has been highlighted in various global issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-China advanced technology hegemony competition.

From this point on, the U.S. began to offer access to the latest AI, semiconductor technology, and systems to its allies, not just weapons, as an important gift.
In this context, 'AI chip export permits' have become absolutely influential on a country's future security and competitiveness.

3. The Soaring Practical Value of AI and Data

From an economic point of view, AI and data are now assets with more value than traditional weapons.
Massive data processing capabilities and AI chipsets (e.g., NVIDIA, AMD) determine the competitiveness of all key industries, including defense, finance, energy, and healthcare.
AI-based cyber defense, satellite networks, and real-time information analysis are directly linked to national security.
Therefore, the U.S. providing or allowing access to AI and advanced semiconductors to its allies is an economic advantage.

4. Industry-Specific/Company-Specific Impact and Investment Points

The biggest beneficiaries of this trend are semiconductor/AI chip design and manufacturing companies.
For example, NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD are actually seeing their stock prices rise rapidly, and their future growth potential is very high in conjunction with U.S. government policies.
In addition, related industries such as cloud, security, data management, and satellite communications (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon, Palantir, Palo Alto Networks, etc.) are expected to see their revenue models expand through strengthened alliance cooperation.
In addition, global allies such as South Korea and Taiwan are expected to further strengthen their economic partnerships through technology and AI cooperation with the U.S.

5. Future Prospects and Personal Investment Tips

As the U.S.'s alliance strategy changes to allowing AI chips and data exchange, AI, semiconductor, security, and cloud-related companies are likely to be the protagonists of 'unique hyper-differentiation' for the time being.
In detail, there are many points to consider in the AI chip/semiconductor ecosystem, such as the deepening of U.S.-China decoupling, technological hegemony competition, strengthening of strategic alliances, and data sovereignty issues.
When investing or understanding economic trends, you should check U.S. policy directions, advanced technology support flows, and global supply chain issues.

< Summary >

The U.S. is expanding its support for allies from weapons to AI chips and data, and accordingly, the global security and industrial structure are changing rapidly.
Advanced tech industries such as AI, semiconductors, and data infrastructure are emerging as actual competitiveness factors for each country, and companies in these fields are expected to benefit the most in the long term.

[Related Articles…]

• Impact of U.S. Semiconductor Export Regulations on the Global IT Industry : U.S. Semiconductor Export Regulations
• Global AI Hegemony War and Korea's Response Strategy : Global AI Hegemony War

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]