● Musk Blasts Trump’s BBB Bill

Latest Economic Outlook Analysis – Key Points of Stock Market, Hedge Fund Supply and Demand, and Fed Policy Changes

1. Overall Stock Market Movement and Institutional Trading Trends

The stock market has shown overall resilience recently.
Stock prices have risen, led by semiconductor stocks including Nvidia.
Tesla and Whirlpool have also shown strength.
Unlike the trend of institutions continuously selling stocks since the beginning of the year, there has been a significant buying trend last week.
In the case of hedge funds, it is worth noting that the Macse 7’s long exposure is at its lowest level in five years, indicating that supply and demand are still vacant.

2. Macse Outlook and Comparison with Other Companies Based on FactSet Data

According to recent FactSet data, the earnings outlook for Macse 7 has been significantly revised upward due to Nvidia’s strong performance.
Stock prices are basically a function of earnings, and if earnings increase, stock prices should naturally rise as well.
However, it is suggested that Macse’s profit margin may decrease somewhat from the second quarter to the first quarter of next year in the short term.
On the other hand, 493 companies excluding Macse are showing relatively good performance, so investors need to carefully study which side to focus on.

3. Changes in Wall Street and Deutsche Bank’s SMP 500 Outlook

On Wall Street, Deutsche Bank revised its SMP 500 target upward, showing an upward trend.
Some institutions have a bullish view, but many companies still do not positively evaluate the SMP 500.
In other words, a cautious investment strategy is required amid uncertainty about quarterly results and target forecasts.

4. Fed’s Review of Monetary Policy Framework and Interest Rate Cut Outlook

The Fed reviews its monetary policy framework every five years, and complemented the low-interest rate and low-inflation situation at the time through the average inflation target system newly introduced in 2019.
However, the situation has changed rapidly since the pandemic, and now we are faced with a new environment of high interest rates and rising prices.
According to remarks by President Logan and Powell at the Pad Listen’s event, it is expected that interest rate cuts will be difficult for the time being until inflation reaches the 2% target.
In particular, the possibility of raising interest rates cannot be ruled out in a situation where employment exceeds the maximum sustainable level, and a hawkish atmosphere is forming within the Fed.

5. Musk’s Remarks and Criticism of Large Spending Bills

Recently, Musk strongly criticized bills that promote large-scale spending.
He showed strong opposition to some people who supported President Trump’s policies, suggesting that American financiers are aware of the seriousness of the bill.
As various movements in politics, economics, and financial markets are working in combination, investors need to look at the market from an all-round perspective.

Economic outlook, global economy, interest rate cuts, investment strategies, and stock market-related issues are changing in real time, so let’s respond carefully while referring to the key contents above.

< Summary >

The stock market has recently shown resilience due to the strength of Nvidia, Tesla, Whirlpool, etc.
Institutional buying and the vacant supply and demand of hedge funds raise expectations for Macse 7’s rise, but the future profit margin outlook is somewhat unclear.
Wall Street, including Deutsche Bank, raised the SMP 500 target, but unstable forecasts continue.
The Fed is conducting a review of monetary policy, focusing on achieving 2% instead of the traditional average inflation target in the high-inflation environment after the pandemic.
Musk’s remarks show extreme opinions on policies related to the US’s large-scale spending bill.
Focusing on key keywords such as economic outlook, global economy, interest rate cuts, investment strategies, and stock market, it is necessary to seek a cautious investment strategy while paying attention to complex variables.

[Related Articles…]
Macse Investment Strategy Analysis
Fed Policy Change Outlook

*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]

– [홍장원의 불앤베어] 폭발한 머스크 “트럼프 BBB법안 역겨워”. 맥7 사야하나 개별종목에서 기회 찾아야 하나.

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