China’s Debt, Deflation, Tech – Trade Truce, Tech Earnings, China Slowdown

● China’s Economic Tightrope-Debt,Deflation,and Tech Triumphs

A Complete Analysis of the China Collapse Theory: The Evergrande Crisis, Deflation, and the Conflict Between Traditional and New Economies

Reforms and the Foundations of Politics and Economy in the 1980s

From a period when concerns about the collapse of China were raised both domestically and internationally,China recognized the need for reforms in its economic and political systems after the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident and the collapse of Eastern Europe in the early 1990s.During this time, state-led economic management and control systems were strengthened, with the state’s role, in particular, accounting for more than 40% of GDP, playing a significant role in securing stability.This aspect is linked to issues such as the Global Economic Outlook and the US-China Trade War and continues to serve as a principle for the stable operation of the Chinese economy.

The Emergence and Limitations of the Collapse Theory After 2001

Starting with early collapse theory claims by Gordon Chang and others in 2001,predictions that China would collapse due to national debt and structural problems were made from various sources, including the IMF and Princeton reports.However, in reality, the Chinese government has fundamentally prevented financial crises with its vast state-owned assets and bond holdings, as well as stable fiscal management.In other words, one cannot conclude China’s collapse solely based on debt problems, and the fact that the foundation of the economic system is based on state-led control makes a big difference.This content shares context with key economic terms such as Economic Trends and Global Economic Outlook.

The Evergrande Crisis and the Deflation Problem of the Old Economy

Currently, within China, concerns continue regarding the difficulty of managing the old economy, namely the traditional real estate market, local government debt, and related bonds.In particular, real estate shocks like the Evergrande crisis are associated with a lack of demand, adding to deflationary pressures.In fact, the deflationary situation caused by weakening domestic demand serves as the backdrop for the government to conduct “slowly, gradually” restructuring.This is directly related to the global economic issue of a Real Estate Crisis.The government is trying to avoid explosive crisis situations by preparing gradual solutions rather than short-term shocks.

The Rise of the New Economy and China’s Future Growth Engine

On the other hand, China’s new economy sectors show a completely different aspect.The productivity and technology centered on innovative industries such as electric vehicles, secondary batteries, artificial intelligence (AI), and humanoid robots are rapidly growing.They are evaluated as China’s future economic growth engine.This new economic development offsets the deflation crisis of the existing economy and shows the possibility of leading the entire economic system from mid-growth to gradual high-growth.This process is a key Economic Trend that must be considered when interpreting the Global Economic Outlook.

The Complexity of the Chinese Economy: Three Pillars of Security, Nationalism, and Economy

When understanding the Chinese economy, three pillars—security and internal stability, nationalism, and economic development—operate simultaneously.First, security and social stability lead to the strengthening of state control, preventing internal collapse even in crisis situations.Second, nationalism enhances national identity and social cohesion.Third, in the economic field, the old and new economies are divided and complement each other while maintaining the overall economic size.This national management strategy is an important factor in understanding the US-China Trade War and the Global Economic Outlook.

Future Prospects and Implications for the Global Economic Outlook

China has entered a mid-growth phase from high-growth, but its GDP size is still among the world’s largest, andits economic system seeks stability through gradual changes and government-led restructuring processes.In the short term, concerns about deflation remain due to the Evergrande crisis and real estate issues, butin the long term, innovative industries such as artificial intelligence and electric vehicles are expected to drive the overall growth of the Chinese economy.Thus, the complex aspects of the Chinese economy serve as important references in the analysis of the Global Economic Outlook and Economic Trends.Accordingly, investment and policy directions need to be readjusted.

China has laid the foundation for economic stability through state-led reforms since the 1980s and has overcome crises with its strong state-owned assets and government control, despite the collapse theory raised after 2001.Although there are problems in the old economy, such as the Evergrande crisis, and deflationary pressures due to sluggish domestic demand,the growth of new economy sectors such as electric vehicles and AI is acting as a future growth engine,and gradual changes are being sought based on the three axes of security, nationalism, and economy.

[Related Articles…]China Collapse Theory Reviewed | Hengda Crisis Analysis

*YouTube Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– ‘China Collapse Theory’ Fully Dissected: Real Estate Shock (Hengda Crisis) & The Reality of Defla…

● Trade Truce Relief- Tech Earnings Mixed- China Slowdown Looms

1. Analysis of Recent Global Economic Outlook: US Tariff Agreement, Wall Street Stock Market Trends, and Impact on the Korean Economy

It started when the US sent a strong message saying, “No more delays,” putting pressure on trade negotiations.
The US Secretary of Commerce heightened tensions by announcing strong tariff measures if no agreement was reached by August 1.
However, the situation took a sudden turn as Hong Kong media reported a 90-day tariff extension agreement between the US and the EU (and related countries like China and Sweden) in just about 10 minutes.
Ultimately, former President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in Scotland and agreed on a trade agreement framework based on mutual 15% tariff imposition.
This process resolved global economic uncertainty to some extent by connecting diplomatic pressure with actual economic benefits (energy import and investment promises).

2. Wall Street Stock Market Trends and Corporate Earnings Announcements

The New York Stock Exchange showed a positive atmosphere with slight gains in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.
Among the M7 companies, Tesla, Microsoft, and Google surged, while Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon showed declines, highlighting the performance gap between companies.
Investors are focusing on the release of earnings reports from over 150 SP 500 companies during the major earnings announcement week.
A thorough analysis is necessary from a stock investment and financial management perspective, as the direction of the overall market may change depending on Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks and corporate earnings announcements.

3. Raw Materials and Cryptocurrency Market Trends

While the stock market is booming, the global raw materials market is seeing price declines in basic resources such as copper, gold, silver, and steel.
The decline in raw material prices, which reflects the basic strength of the real economy, raises concerns about a future economic slowdown.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and Ethereum show stability with slight gains, but overall, investment sentiment is showing rapid changes.
These contrasting movements are being reprocessed into key SEO keyword ‘economy’, ‘stock’, ‘investment’, ‘market’ analysis data, requiring investors to make careful judgments across the economy.

4. Signals of Economic Slowdown in China and Globally

In China, concerns about an economic slowdown are growing with the decline in industrial profits in June, potentially affecting global demand.
The deterioration of Chinese economic indicators can have repercussions on the real economies of major countries such as the US, Europe, and Korea, acting as an important variable in the global economic flow.
Investors should pay more attention to asset allocation and risk management, reflecting these global trends.

5. Korean Economy and Outlook for Semiconductor and Energy-Related Industries

There is a forecast that Korea may face additional investment demands along with tariffs in trade negotiations with the United States.
Whether or not semiconductor tariffs are reduced is expected to directly affect major export companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, attracting investors’ attention.
JP Morgan and Wall Street analysis show that they are rediscovering the attractiveness of Korean stocks through energy storage systems (ESS) such as LG Energy Solution, LG Chem, and corporate valuation programs.
The government’s shareholder return policy and companies’ efforts to improve performance will be important variables in enhancing the competitiveness of the Korean economy.

6. Future Outlook and Investment Strategies

Investors need to establish careful strategies because there will be more than 150 SP 500 corporate earnings announcements, remarks by Fed Chairman Powell, and additional events related to global trade agreements in the future.
Wall Street analysts warn that the risk of a trade war has not been completely resolved while expecting an increase in technology stocks such as AI, cloud, and semiconductors.
On the other hand, the resolution of uncertainty due to the final agreement acts as a positive signal, but it is time to focus on long-term growth and risk management, considering the complex variables of the international economy.

Recently, a trade agreement was reached between the US and major countries such as the EU, based on mutual 15% tariff imposition.The Wall Street stock market showed a positive flow with earnings announcements centered on M7 companies, but concerns about an economic slowdown are appearing in the raw materials and cryptocurrency markets.Global economic uncertainty is expanding with the deterioration of China’s economic indicators, but Korea is continuing its efforts to strengthen its competitiveness in core industries such as semiconductors and energy storage devices.It is expected that future SP 500 corporate earnings announcements and remarks by the Fed Chairman will be important variables in establishing investment strategies.

*YouTube Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– [ 어젯밤 미국은? ] EU-美…’15% 관세’ 전격 합의…한국은? / 이번주 주목할 포인트 월가의 시각에서 점검!!