Tariff War Escalates, Quantum Race Heats Up, China Economy Tanks

● US-India Tariff War Escalates – Modi’s Silent Treatment – Supply Chain Shockwaves – American Consumer Pain

US-India 50% Tariff Shock Analysis — Background of Modi’s ‘Phone Refusal’ and Future Supply Chain/Investment Scenarios (Key Insights Included)

Here are the main points you’ll read in this article (skim quickly).

The specific timeline and rationale behind the Trump administration’s 50% tariff decision (linked to Russian crude oil imports).
The political and strategic implications of Modi’s refusal to take calls, and the diplomatic fallout on US-India relations.
A key point not widely covered by other news outlets: the structural reasons why the 50% tariff could create headwinds for US manufacturing, consumers, and global supply chains.
The mechanisms through which India’s “domestic demand-centricity” and “import-dependent item structure” can absorb the tariff shock (including numerical and item-specific analysis).
Three short-term and medium-term (2025–2029) scenarios and practical response strategies for businesses and investors (supply chain relocation, currency hedging, entry into alternative markets).
Practical implications and recommendations for Korean companies and policymakers: recalibrating trade strategies with the US and India.

1) Event Timeline and Key Facts

April 2024: Trump announces retaliatory tariffs on India (initially proposed at 26%).Summer-Fall (multiple negotiations): Five rounds of negotiations with the US, but disagreements persist, including US demands for opening India’s agricultural market.July 2025 – Announcement on the 25th: The US warns of an additional 25% tariff, citing India’s “profiting from purchasing and reselling Russian crude oil,” with the final 50% tariff to take effect at 00:01 on the 27th (US time).Key reports: Foreign media like FAZ, Nikkei, and Bloomberg report that Modi has refused calls from President Trump multiple times, interpreted as a signal of political decoupling.Anomaly: India’s imports of Russian crude oil surged to approximately 49.4% in the first half of 2025 (user-provided figure), directly clashing with US sanctions intent.

2) Rationale for Tariffs and International Law/Policy Considerations

US rationale: A tool for economic and trade pressure on countries that undermine the effectiveness of sanctions aimed at cutting off Russia’s war funding.Practical basis: Tariffs are a swift retaliatory trade measure, but unlike financial sanctions (easing of sanctions, restrictions on financial settlements), they are susceptible to WTO rules and retaliatory lawsuits.Key point not often highlighted: The US’s choice of ‘tariffs’ is an immediate economic sanction, but in the long term, it could lead to legal and economic headwinds (increased supply chain costs for US manufacturers, higher consumer prices, backlash from allies).

3) What Modi’s ‘Phone Refusal’ Signifies — Political and Strategic Interpretation

Surface interpretation: A simple expression of emotion (indignation).Deeper interpretation (important): The motive to choose a counter-response and flexible diplomacy over ‘capitulation’ likely exists due to domestic politics (sensitivity of the farming population due to failed agricultural reforms), diplomatic calculus (strengthening relations with BRICS, Russia, and China), and economic self-reliance (economic structure with large domestic demand).Conclusion: The phone refusal is likely not just an emotional act but a strategic choice by Modi, calculated based on domestic and regional political costs.

4) India’s Economic Structure (Trade/GDP Composition) — Why it Can Absorb Tariff Shocks

High domestic demand ratio (consumption-centric): Consumption accounts for about 61.5% of GDP, indicating relatively low export dependence.Significant investment: Capital expenditure and construction investment are functioning as growth engines.Trade structure: India is a net importer (imports > exports). Recently, import growth (over 7%) has outpaced export growth (about 6%), widening the deficit.Key export items: Low-value-added electronics (HS85 series), pharmaceuticals, minerals, and fuels. High-value-added advanced manufacturing (semiconductors, premium electronics) remains weak.Key takeaway (what readers often miss): While India’s exports to the US are substantial, much of it consists of low-value-added intermediate and finished goods. Therefore, US import restrictions are likely to increase costs for US manufacturers (alternative procurement costs). In other words, the tariffs are more likely to create headwinds for US consumers and manufacturers than to pressure India further.

5) Geopolitical Background — Russian Crude Oil Imports and BRICS Solidarity

Following Russian sanctions, countries like China, India, and Turkey have absorbed Russian crude oil at low prices.First half of 2025: India’s imports of Russian crude oil account for about 49.4%, making it one of the largest importers.Impact: The US has chosen tariffs as retaliation because India’s actions directly contradict the US sanctions’ intent (cutting off war funding for Russia). However, India has the capacity to lower its energy costs and sustain domestic demand and industry through low-priced Russian crude oil.Geopolitical ripple effect: India uses BRICS and regional alliances to create diplomatic buffers, creating a structure that is difficult to shake with US unilateral pressure.

6) US Position: Limitations and Adverse Effects of Tariffs (Areas Less Covered by Other News)

Supply chain vulnerabilities: US manufacturing already relies on Indian low-cost components and finished goods in certain sectors.Price pass-through: The 50% tariff could ultimately lead to price increases and a resurgence of inflation in the US (especially for consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and electronics).Limitations of alternative countries: Alternative suppliers to replace Indian goods (e.g., alternatives to Vietnam, Mexico, China) are insufficient in terms of supply, quality, and cost in the short term.Policy risk: If tariffs are prolonged, it could weaken US corporate competitiveness and erode trust in global value chains, effectively resulting in the US “shooting itself in the foot.”

7) Outlook Scenarios (Short-term/Medium-term: 2025–2029)

Scenario A — Stalemate (Diplomatic Compromise): India accepts some agricultural market opening/deferral measures, and the US partially repeals tariffs.Outcome: Trade recovery, but trust erosion necessitates restructuring future negotiations.Scenario B — Structural Confrontation (Sustained Medium-to-Long Term): Tariffs are maintained or expanded, and India endures by strengthening alternative markets (China, Middle East, Africa) and domestic demand.Outcome: US companies attempt a comprehensive supply chain overhaul, intensifying the “blockade” of global supply chains.Scenario C — Retaliation and Multilateralism: India attempts to ease pressure through WTO litigation and multilateral cooperation, and strategic self-reliance deepens through strengthened BRICS alliances.Outcome: Increased conflict within multilateral norms and the international trading system, prolonged regulatory uncertainty.

8) Practical Recommendations — Checklist for Businesses, Investors, and Policymakers

Global Manufacturing Companies (including Korea)

Short-term: Immediately assess exposure (value and proportion) to Indian components and finished goods.
Medium-term: Secure alternative suppliers (Southeast Asia, Mexico, internal diversification) and develop inventory and hedging strategies.Financial and Trade Professionals
Monitor currency and settlement risks (Indian Rupee, Ruble linkage, dollar inflows/outflows).
Recalculate cost structures due to changes in import tariffs and review contract terms.Investors (Portfolio)
Indian stocks/bonds: Long-term growth is positive (high growth, domestic demand), but short-term volatility will increase.
US manufacturing and consumer goods sectors: Profit margins may decline due to tariff impact.Policy Makers (Korea)
Strengthen Korea-India supply chain cooperation (especially for intermediate goods and electronic components).
Balance US diplomacy and economic strategy: Maintain alliances with the US, but concurrently pursue diversification strategies to protect economic interests.

9) Specific Implications for Korean Companies

Exporting companies: This is the time to strategically utilize India as an “alternative production base” or “alternative market.”Manufacturing: If issues with procuring low-value-added products from India intensify, it is necessary to strengthen investment in India and enhance localization strategies to secure cost competitiveness.Financial institutions/Trade finance: Incorporate tariff risks into letters of credit and payment terms; offer insurance and hedging products.

10) Conclusion — Why This Issue is More Than Just a ‘Tariff Incident’

The 50% tariff is not merely a change in tax rates but a point of collision between the US’s strategic choice (purpose of Russian sanctions) and India’s strategic response (domestic demand, diplomacy, economic self-reliance).A boomerang effect of tariffs (burden on US consumers and manufacturers), accelerated supply chain restructuring, and strengthened BRICS and regional alliances could occur simultaneously.Therefore, businesses, investors, and policymakers must simultaneously manage short-term shocks and redesign long-term chains (supply chain diversification, localization).

Trump’s 50% tariff was attributed to India’s purchase of Russian crude oil, but India has shown political resolve, such as refusing calls, by relying on its domestic-demand-centric economy, low-value-added export structure, and low-priced Russian crude oil.The tariffs are likely to create headwinds for US manufacturers and consumers, and in the short term, companies must urgently review their supply chains and prepare alternative sources and hedging strategies.In the medium to long term, tariff conflicts could trigger supply chain restructuring, strengthened BRICS alliances, and conflicts over trade norms. Therefore, Korean companies and policymakers need to re-evaluate India as a strategic partner.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– The 50% tariffs “intimidated Modi” and “upended decades of US efforts to build closer ties with I…

● IBM’s Quantum Gambit-Hybrid Strategy Dominates Regulatory Air-Gapped Markets-Investment Boom Ahead-2029 Roadmap-AI Integration

Quantum Computing Wars Have Arrived: IBM’s ‘Hybrid’ Gambit and Investment Opportunities — Key Checklist for 2024-2029

Key takeaways from this article: IBM’s 2029 goal of error mitigation (styled/system) strategy and the practical applications of its hybrid model.Key takeaways from this article: The hybrid advantage in ‘regulated/air-gapped environments’ that other media often overlooks, and the industries that will quietly benefit from it.Key takeaways from this article: The economic ripple effects created by the combination of IBM’s open AI/data pipeline and quantum computing.Key takeaways from this article: A timeline from an investor’s perspective (short-term, mid-term, long-term) and practical checkpoints regarding stock price distortions (potential undervaluation).Key takeaways from this article: Global competitive landscape (Google, MS, startups) and IBM’s 6 differentiating points.

1) Chronological Order — History and Present: The Flow of Quantum Computing

1980s-2000s: The period when quantum concepts and fundamental theories were developed.Early 2010s: Google, IBM, and various startups began their hardware race in earnest.2019: Google announced a small-scale ‘quantum supremacy’ experiment, gaining significant attention.2023: IBM presented a revised roadmap for practical application alongside experimental achievements.2024 Present: IBM is front-lining its ‘Knight’ level processor and hybrid strategy.2025-2029: IBM’s goal is error reduction (practical styling/store systems), aiming to deliver usable devices by 2029.

2) Status by Key Players — Comparison of Google, MS, IBM, and Startups

Google: Maintaining a strategy centered on experimental supremacy appeals and its own platform.Microsoft: Emphasizing cloud-quantum integration and customized solutions for clients.Startups (e.g., IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, etc.): Rapid innovation, high volatility, and financial risks present.IBM: Stable capital, a clear roadmap, and a focus on a hybrid (quantum + cloud) strategy.

3) IBM’s Technology Roadmap (Chronological) — Lab → Advantage → Practical Use

Phase 1 (Laboratory): Increasing qubit count/connectivity, understanding noise characteristics.Phase 2 (Quantum Advantage Proof): Aiming to demonstrate cases surpassing classical computers for specific problems.Phase 3 (Error Reduction/Practical Use Systems, Target 2029): Achieving industrial applicability through enhanced error correction and hardware stability.IBM is pursuing AI, cloud, and open-source strategies concurrently across all these phases.

4) IBM’s Differentiation — Meaning and Practical Value of the Hybrid Strategy

Hybrid Definition: A method of solving problems by linking quantum computers with existing supercomputing and cloud infrastructure, rather than using them in isolation.Practical Value 1: Enables the utilization of quantum advantages in sensitive industries (banking, insurance, telecommunications, law) without data leakage to external clouds.Practical Value 2: Allows for the application of quantum computation by integrating with internal infrastructure, even in air-gapped environments (systems isolated from the internet).Practical Value 3: Enterprise clients place greater trust in ‘validated’ hybrid workflows.Conclusion: The hybrid strategy is not mere marketing but a realistic path to industrial adoption.

5) Priority Application Areas by Industry — Who Needs It First and Why

Finance (Risk Analysis, Option Pricing): Prior utility in high-dimensional optimization and risk modeling.Telecommunications/Security: Efficiency improvements in decryption, optimization, and network design.Drug Discovery/Materials Science: Shortening the search time for new drug candidates through molecular simulations.Climate/Energy: Optimizing policy and design through rapid simulation of complex system models.Regulated Industries (Banking, Insurance, Government): IBM’s hybrid approach garners attention due to data security and internal operational models.

6) IBM’s Unveiled ‘Open’ Strategy and AI Integration — Important but Less Discussed Points

IBM is shifting towards providing AI models and data as open-source.This strategy encourages enterprise clients to customize models with their own data.The integration of quantum computing with open AI pipelines can catalyze an ecosystem of ‘customized quantum + AI solutions.’It has the potential to gain market trust faster than other Big Tech by emphasizing ‘validation, governance, and transparency.’

7) Investment Perspective — IBM Stock and Investment Timeline (Short, Mid, Long Term)

Short-Term (6-12 months): Market sentiment might lead to IBM being overlooked in a rally driven by Google and MS.Mid-Term (1-3 years): As IBM’s hybrid solution proof-of-concept cases increase, a revaluation of its valuation is highly probable.Long-Term (3-10 years): If its 2029 goal materializes, growth based on ‘practical use’ is expected.Investment Checkpoints: Hardware performance metrics (qubit count, connectivity, error rate improvements), proof-of-concept cases (financial/pharmaceutical pilots), enterprise orders/partnerships, regulatory/governance frameworks.Risks: Technical challenges (error correction), disruptive approaches from startups, government regulations/security issues.

8) The Most Important Content Not Well Reported by Media (Remember This Section Only)

The bottleneck for actual industrial adoption is less ‘hardware’ and more ‘data, governance, and integrated workflows.’IBM’s hybrid strategy offers a competitive advantage particularly in ‘air-gapped’ environments and regulated industries.In essence, IBM may have an advantage in ‘realistic applicability’ over simple qubit competition.Relying solely on stock price surges and buzz for investment decisions could mean opportunities with ‘steadfastly innovative’ companies like IBM are missed.For industries that prioritize ‘verifiability (reliability)’ from enterprise clients, IBM’s strategy is likely to lead to genuine productive differentiation.

9) Policy, Security, and National Competition — Direction of Economic Impact

The race to secure technology at the national level will continue.Security issues (cryptography, military applications) will influence the pace of quantum technology diffusion.Regulations and standardization (governance) will dictate the speed of corporate adoption.In conclusion, as quantum computing commercialization progresses, productivity innovation and cost structure reforms will occur in certain industries.

10) Practical Checklist — Action Items for Investors and Corporate Decision-Makers

Technology Check: Monitor IBM’s error rate improvement metrics and its 2029 roadmap execution quarterly.Business Check: Monitor IBM’s partner/pilot cases (finance, pharma, telecommunications).Financial Check: Observe the trend of IBM’s R&D investment versus performance (licensing, cloud revenue).Risk Management: Watch for news related to regulations/security and global supply chain fluctuations.Portfolio Strategy: For aggressive investors, consider phased buying over the medium to long term; for those seeking stability, diversify into related ETFs, cloud, and AI infrastructure sectors.

< Summary >IBM’s hybrid strategy is a practical roadmap that connects quantum computing to ‘real-world application.’In regulated/air-gapped environments, hybrid serves as a tangible competitive advantage.The 2029 error reduction goal could be a long-term inflection point.From an investment perspective, focus on medium-to-long-term technology, pilot, and governance performance rather than short-term momentum.The key point often overlooked by the media is that ‘data, governance, and productive integrated workflows’ are the true determinants of industrial adoption.

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [About New York] The Quantum Computing War Has Arrived: IBM’s Hybrid ‘Gamble’ | Correspondent Gil…

● China’s Economy in Crisis- Corporate Exodus- Protests- Global Impact

“You’ll be shocked when you see it yourself” — The Real Reasons for China’s Worst Economic Phase and What’s to Come, From Corporate Exodus and Protests to Impacts on Korea and the Global Economy, All at a Glance

Key Content Guide

This guide explains the reality of the Chinese economy as seen on the ground and confirmed by statistics.It breaks down the structural shifts signified by companies’ “China Exit” signals.It chronologically outlines how the real estate crisis, hidden local government debt (LGFV), and shadow banking could trigger a chain of defaults.It predicts the political and financial ripple effects of recent protests (social discontent) on economic stabilizers and the CCP’s options.It provides practical checklists for Korean companies and financial institutions regarding actual risks and for investment/policy considerations.

1) Past → Present: Why is the Situation the “Worst Since Reform and Opening Up”?

The Chinese economy has experienced a continuous slowdown in growth since the mid-2010s.Post-Zero-COVID, the expected pent-up consumption has been weak.Real economic indicators like electricity consumption, railway freight, and PMI continue to show a cooling economy.The real estate crisis is not just a downturn in the construction industry; it’s directly impacting local government finances (land revenue).The chain of defaults by major developers (e.g., Evergrande-like events) has amplified concerns about non-performing loans in the financial sector.Recent “China Exit” decisions by companies signify an acceleration of supply chain realignments.Beyond official figures, unofficial indicators (electricity, freight, card payments) show China’s growth rate deteriorating even faster.Protests in China are a signal of collapsing social trust, placing significant pressure on policy options (maintaining social control vs. economic support).

2) The Single Most Important Thing Right Now (The Core Issue Not Covered by News)

The most crucial issue right now is the “qualitative collapse of local government and LGFV (Local Government Financing Vehicle) debt.”This problem cannot be solved by temporary liquidity injections from the central government alone.On the ground, local governments are seeing a sharp decrease in budgets for services and welfare, previously funded by land sales.If local government debt defaults, it will lead to banks’ incomplete collateral, frozen shadow banking, and funding crunches for businesses.This chain is more likely to trigger a broader credit crunch than a simple real estate bubble collapse.When large banks’ “mutual assistance” reaches its limit, the government will have to choose between massive fiscal support, accepting increased social control costs, or financial restructuring.The government’s choice will provide the global market with a “timeline for default risk realization.”

3) The Mechanism of Protests (Social Discontent) on the Economy — The Political-Financial Link

Protests are not merely political events.Firstly, weakened information control drastically erodes the confidence of corporations and investors.Secondly, capital movement (both domestic and foreign) accelerates — leading to withdrawals of foreign currency, suspension of foreign direct investment, and increased profit remittances by subsidiaries.Thirdly, increased government spending on “fiscal and security costs” for tighter control rapidly depletes fiscal capacity.Fourthly, under significant pressure, companies will accelerate decisions to relocate production lines.Consequently, protests short-term shrink consumption and investment, and in the medium to long term, they damage China’s global competitiveness (especially in manufacturing and technology).This, overlapping with US-China economic friction (US-China conflict), narrows China’s policy options.

4) Policy Options and Timeline (Short-, Mid-, Long-Term Scenarios)

Short-Term (3-6 months):

Attempt to mitigate immediate shocks through monetary easing and liquidity injections.
Possibility of informal support for major developers and banks (double recovery structure).
Strengthened social control (censorship, prohibition of assemblies) to suppress dissent.

Mid-Term (6-18 months):

Need for local government restructuring (debt renegotiation, real estate market reform).
Acceleration of foreign companies exiting China confirmed by data.
Policy shift attempt by resetting growth targets and emphasizing “quality growth.”

Long-Term (1-5 years):

Declining growth potential due to demographic structure (aging population) and productivity stagnation.
Structural changes in industry due to technology and supply chain relocation.
Investment inflow uncertain without institutional reforms (transparency, rule of law) to restore global trust.

5) Detailed Breakdown of Financial and Real Economy Chain Risks

Real Estate Crisis: Decline in new sales and transactions → worsening cash flow for construction companies → chain defaults of subcontractors and material suppliers.LGFV and Local Bonds: Reduced land revenue → weakened debt repayment capacity → rising risk of bank non-performing loans.Shadow Banking: Potential for a sharp credit crunch if collateral and liquidity collapse.Foreign Exchange and Capital Flows: Foreign exchange reserves can be defended for now, but sustained capital outflows will increase volatility in exchange rates and bond markets.Corporate Exodus: Impact on the labor market (especially manufacturing cities in central/western and eastern regions) due to relocation of production lines and R&D.

6) Global Ripple Effects (Including Korea) — What Should We Prepare For?

Impact on Korea (Exports/Supply Chains):

Short-term supply chain disruptions related to semiconductors, electronics, and automobiles are manageable, but long-term production network restructuring will lead to increased costs.
Weakened Chinese consumption directly impacts exports of brands and durable goods.

Financial Markets:

Strengthened global risk aversion → increased preference for safe-haven assets.
Potential for increased volatility in Korean bonds and exchange rates.

Policy Recommendations (Korean Government/Corporations):

Accelerate export diversification (global value chain relocation).
Review risks of Chinese local subsidiaries (cash, debt, supply chain nodes).
Enhance foreign exchange and liquidity stress testing.

7) 10 Key Indicators for Investors and Businesses to Check Right Now

1) Electricity consumption and railway freight volume (leading indicators of real demand).2) New housing transactions and construction starts (health of the real estate sector).3) Local government debt repayment schedules and LGFV bond maturity structures.4) Bank NPL ratios and loan loss reserve ratios.5) Changes in foreign exchange reserves and volatility in the FX swap market.6) PMI (manufacturing and services) and credit spreads.7) Youth unemployment rate and urban unemployment rate (leading indicators of social unrest).8) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows and disclosures related to China exits.9) Latest US-China conflict measures related to technology and export controls.10) Indicators of protest spread based on social media and local news (social risk).

8) My 3 Most Realistic Scenarios (Probability/Impact)

Mild Scenario (Low Probability, Low Impact): Rapid stabilization through proactive large-scale fiscal input and restructuring by the central government.Mixed Scenario (Medium Probability, Medium Impact): Parallel restructuring and strengthened control, maintaining low growth but managing the financial system.Deterioration Scenario (Relatively High Probability, High Impact): Chain collapse of local bonds/shadow banking + spread of protests leading to intensified credit crunch and global economic shock.In my judgment, the most likely outcome is between “Mixed Scenario” and “Deterioration Scenario,” meaning the negative tail risks of the mixed scenario are likely to materialize.

9) Checklist for Immediate Action (For Businesses and Investors)

Businesses: Assess risks at each supply chain node and secure secondary/tertiary alternative supply chains.Banks and Financial Institutions: Reduce exposure to Chinese bonds and prepare liquidity contingency plans.Investors: Re-evaluate positions heavily exposed to high-duration, China domestic consumption stocks.Policymakers: Establish shock mitigation measures by maintaining bilateral and multilateral dialogue channels.

10) Xi Jinping’s (Policy Leadership) Options Amidst US-China Conflict?

Xi Jinping must balance maintaining control and stability with economic recovery.Strongly suppressing social unrest may provide short-term stability but leads to long-term loss of trust.Conversely, economic intervention (large-scale fiscal and market intervention) increases the central government’s fiscal burden and weakens reform momentum.Ultimately, “buffer and selective restructuring” is the most probable path, but global investor sentiment will weaken in the process.

< Summary >The Chinese economy is facing its worst risks since the reform and opening-up period, driven by a combination of the real estate crisis, local government (LGFV) debt, shadow banking issues, corporate exodus from China, and social protests.The most critical hidden risk is the qualitative collapse of local government debt, which cannot be solved by simple stimulus measures.Protests are rapidly eroding economic confidence and accelerating capital flight and corporate exits.Even with short-term mitigation measures, mid-term restructuring and a weakening of growth potential are unavoidable.Korea and global markets must prepare for supply chain realignments and financial market volatility, and closely monitor immediate indicators (electricity consumption, LGFV maturities, etc.).

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– “If you go there yourself, you’ll be shocked.” China’s worst-ever economic situation | Dr. Lee Ch…