Fed Independence – Dollar Trust – Liquidity Bubble,AI Bubble – Hardware vs Corporate Fails – Personal AI,Bitcoin Crash – Derivatives – ETFs – Synthetic Sell-off

● Fed Independence Weakens, Dollar Trust Falters, Liquidity Bubble Risks Bursting, 1-2-6 Scaling Key, Cash Up 20-25

How to Turn Crisis into Opportunity: From Securing Cash to 1-2-6 Scaling – A Comprehensive Roadmap for “Dangerous Liquidity” in H2 2025

The core takeaways you should gain from this article are the following five:(1) Why the weakening of the Fed’s independence is the foremost risk shaking dollar confidence and global capital flows.(2) Market’s mechanical reactions and practical trading signals during the US employment and PCE (inflation) ‘double shock’ period.(3) Real bubble collapse triggers and hidden catalysts like Stablecoins and SLR in a ‘liquidity-driven market.'(4) Investment practical rules – Fujimoto’s cash ratio, 1-2-6 rule, and journaling habits.(5) A concrete portfolio action plan (numbers, timing, indicators).We’ve prioritized points (like the market impact of a weakened Fed independence and the ripple effects of stablecoins) that are not often covered in other news or YouTube content, organizing them for quick decision-making.

1) Key Timeline in Chronological Order (Now → September → Year-End)

Now (H2 2025): Global central banks are attempting to expand liquidity by fostering expectations of interest rate cuts.The current situation is a ‘liquidity-driven market,’ but it exhibits stagflationary characteristics depending on real economic indicators (slowing employment, supply shocks).Late August → Early September: US employment data and August PCE (reflecting July data) will be released consecutively.The September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will be a decisive turning point.If an employment shock and upward inflation (or inflation rise unreflected by tariffs) occur simultaneously, the financial markets are highly likely to experience sharp volatility.Year-End: The technical policy dissonance (expectations of rate cuts clashing with reality of inflation) will either resolve, or conversely, long-term volatility will expand due to damaged confidence.

2) Global Macroeconomic Mechanism – Why “Dangerous Liquidity”?

Policy Mix: Simultaneous expectations of interest rate cuts and expansionary fiscal policies are overlapping worldwide.This traditionally reinforces the structure where monetary and fiscal easing drives capital into asset markets (stocks, real estate).However, if real demand does not recover, an ‘asset bubble’ will form.Bubbles can eventually cause a sharp price reversal due to triggers (e.g., employment/inflation double shock, bond market crunch, stablecoin collapse).In particular, US Treasury yields and the Dollar Index dictate global capital flows, so they should be treated as key monitoring indicators daily.The least discussed point here: The erosion of Fed independence can lead to a decline in dollar confidence, triggering a reallocation of global dollar capital (capital outflow from emerging markets, sharp stock declines).

3) Structural Impact of Weakened Fed Independence and Dollar Confidence (Key Point Not Widely Discussed Elsewhere)

When policy interventions become excessive, markets lose the ‘predictability’ of monetary policy.In particular, political interference in Fed appointments (pressure for early rate cuts) can undermine the Fed’s credibility.If Fed confidence falters, the safe-haven premium on the dollar will be realigned.A weakening of dollar confidence is not just a simple exchange rate fluctuation; it ripples through global leverage, stablecoins, and the dollar-denominated bond market as a whole.Consequently, at a certain point, a dollar liquidity (dollar funding) crunch can lead to simultaneous sharp declines (cascading liquidations) in stocks, corporate bonds, and derivatives markets.This is the true trigger for ‘extreme volatility’ and ‘bubble collapse.’

4) Market Triggers: Combined Risks of Stablecoins, SLR, and Tariffs (Supply Shocks)

Stablecoins act as a substitute for short-term liquidity, and if regulatory or collateral confidence is shaken, a rapid capital withdrawal (run) can occur.SLR (generally bank regulations, reserve requirements, regulatory changes) directly affects banks’ handling of Treasuries and liquidity, as well as market liquidity.Tariffs and trade wars cause price increases on the supply side, stimulating inflation.Therefore, the connection chain of tariffs → prices → changes in interest rate expectations → simultaneous reactions in dollars, Treasuries, and stocks must be closely monitored.This chain reaction may not end with a single news event but could materialize gradually over several months.

5) Fujimoto (89)’s “Living Investment Lessons” – Practical Rules

Cash Ratio (현금비중): The author repeatedly recommends securing at least 20% in cash to prepare for bubble collapses.The purpose of cash is not to ‘protect asset value’ but to serve as ‘ammunition to seize good buying opportunities.’1-2-6 Rule (Position Sizing): We use a scaling-in rule to increase positions – starting small (1), doubling if good (2), and going bold when confident (6).Record Keeping and Routine: Maintaining trading records and a daily routine of checking the market (especially the US), interest rates, and the dollar creates a long-term edge.Psychological Management: Even if you incur losses, maintain an attitude that ‘prices keep moving,’ recognize structural risks, and calmly look for re-entry opportunities.Daily Routine Example: Check US markets, Treasuries, and the dollar at 2 AM (Japan time), and immediately review news and FOMC statements.

6) Concrete Portfolio Action Plan – Numbers and Triggers

Basic Framework: Consider a basic framework of 60% stocks / 20% cash / 20% bonds, cash equivalents, and alternative assets, adjusting according to individual risk tolerance and time horizon.Cash Ratio Suggestion: Maintain 15-25% cash during liquidity-driven markets (upward trends).Buy Timing Triggers: (1) A sharp rise in US 10-year Treasury yields (e.g., a daily increase of 20bp) coupled with a surge in stock trading volume → signal of short-term volatility.(2) A continuous sharp decline in stocks for two consecutive trading days after an employment shock announcement (e.g., -7% or more) → consider buying at the dip.Apply Scaling: Enter new positions with the 1-2-6 rule, while managing portfolio-wide exposure against volatility.Rebalancing Rule: Automatically rebalance when any asset class in the portfolio deviates by ±5-10% from its target allocation.Cash Usage Rule: Divide cash into 30% for ‘Great Depression scenarios’ (large corrections) and 70% for ‘opportunity seizing’ (smaller corrections) to enable phased buying.

7) Scenario-Based Checklist – Response Manual

Scenario A – Minor Correction (Temporary Decline Due to Fear):Action: Dollar-cost average with a portion of cash (25-50% of target cash).Indicators: US Treasuries and dollar show no significant volatility, VIX rises then stabilizes, trading volume rises.

Scenario B – Significant Correction (Weakened Fed Confidence, Dollar Instability):Action: 1) Secure additional cash (increase cash ratio), 2) Immediately increase allocation to defensive stocks and cash-like assets, 3) Consider medium-term bonds with high stability and dollar hedging.Indicators: Sharp dollar depreciation, significant fluctuations in Treasury spreads, signs of stablecoin fragmentation.

Scenario C – Financial Crisis Level (Stablecoin/Bond Market Crunch → Leverage Liquidation):Action: Maximum defense (fix cash position, completely reduce leverage), diversify cash-like assets into overseas safe-haven currencies if necessary.Indicators: Sharp spike in short-term rates, trading halts/market paralysis, collapse of stablecoin collateral.

8) Practical Indicators & Monitor List (What to Check Daily)

Priority 1: US 10-Year Treasury Yield (Weekly, Daily, Intraday Trends).Priority 2: Dollar Index (DXY) and major currency exchange rates (KRW, JPY, CNY).Priority 3: US Employment Data (Nonfarm Payrolls), Unemployment Rate, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index).Priority 4: FOMC Minutes, Chairman’s Press Conferences, Statements from Fed Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents.Priority 5: Stablecoin Market Capitalization, Liquidity Indicators, Cryptocurrency Fund Inflows, Large-Scale Supply/Demand Shifts.Priority 6: Trading Volume, VIX (Volatility Index), Credit Spreads (High Yield vs. Treasuries).Practical Tip: ‘Look at indicators before the news’ – Set a pre-defined rule to reduce position sizing before indicator releases.

9) Investor’s Daily Life and Habits – How to Build Long-Term Edge

Routine: Check 5 key indicators at the same time every day (10-year yield, dollar, VIX, US leading indicators, large-cap stock trading volume).Record Keeping: Document the ‘reason’ for every trade and decision (entry price, target price, stop-loss, rationale at the time).Learning Volume: If ‘3-5 hours of market/data study per day’ as recommended by the author is impossible, secure at least weekly review time.Mentality: Maintain an attitude of viewing losses as ‘tuition fees,’ but correct recurring mistakes through record-keeping.

10) Conclusion – 5 Actions to Take Right Now

Action 1: Review your cash ratio – immediately plan to secure 15-25% cash in your portfolio.Action 2: Add US 10-year yields and the Dollar Index to your daily watchlist and set up alerts.Action 3: Document your position sizing rule (1-2-6) and rebalancing rules to automate them.Action 4: Start the habit of trading record-keeping today (even a simple Excel sheet is fine).Action 5: Review your exposure to Stablecoins and crypto assets, and prepare a scenario for redemption and run risk response in case of an emergency.

< Summary >Political intervention by the Fed and policy mismatches in interest rates can shake dollar confidence.Liquidity-driven markets inflate bubbles, but a sharp bubble collapse can occur if the employment/inflation ‘double shock’ acts as a trigger.Fujimoto’s key lessons are ‘cash 확보 (recommended 15-25%)’, ‘record-keeping’, and ‘1-2-6 scaling’, which are practical rules for capitalizing on opportunities.Key practical indicators are US 10-year Treasury yields and the Dollar Index, with risk concentration likely during the late August to September FOMC period.Immediate actions include reviewing cash ratios, setting alerts for monitoring indicators, documenting trading rules, starting trade journaling, and checking stablecoin exposure.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [Full Version] How to Turn Crisis into Opportunity: Optimizing Your Cash Holdings, the Last Safe …

● AI Bubble Hype or Reality – Hardware vs. Corporate AI Fails, Personal AI Growth, Investor Checklist, Infrastructure Opportunities Risks

AI Bubble: Reality or Hype? — Key Contents Covered in This Article: Shazeer’s Hardware-Centric Argument, MIT Report on Enterprise AI Limitations, Implications of Personal AI Proliferation, Investor’s Practical Checklist, and Future Investment Opportunities and Risks in Infrastructure, Semiconductors, and Data Centers.

Past: The Era of Transformers and Computation-Centric Development

Let’s start by examining Noam Shazeer’s core argument.Shazeer, one of the key contributors to the Transformer architecture, laid the foundation for modern generative artificial intelligence.He repeatedly emphasized that hardware—specifically, computational power, memory, network, and bandwidth—dictates AI performance.Historically, this is supported by the performance surge from models with tens of millions of parameters in 2018, which could only generate simple sentences, to models with billions of parameters.During this process, investments in semiconductors, accelerators, and data centers became essential prerequisites for AI advancement.Key takeaway: While algorithmic innovation is crucial, infrastructure is what drives immediate performance and service expansion.

Present (Core Issues): Hardware Dependency vs. Bubble Debate

The message from HotChips 2025 was clear: The AI revolution is limited without massive supercomputing and data centers.Concurrently, a report from the MIT Media Lab pointed out that while $30 to $40 billion was invested in enterprise generative AI over the past two years, 95% of projects yielded no significant business results.The report stated that over 80% of companies adopted GPT-series or Copilot, but very few successfully translated this into operations or revenue.What’s also interesting is that approximately 90% of employees use personal subscription-based AI for their work more than the AI provided by their companies.Even Sam Altman acknowledged that “some of it is a bubble” but projected it would become profitable in the long run.Key takeaway: The current situation coexists with signs of a partial bubble and a structural growth phase centered on infrastructure.

Present (Details): Structural Reasons for Enterprise AI Failure

Data quality and integration with legacy systems are the problems.Enterprise AI faces more constraints than personal AI due to privacy, security, and regulations.Customization costs for each company are high, and proving ROI is difficult.Furthermore, if hardware and software development cycles are out of sync, deployment and operational efficiency suffer.Consequently, many companies’ AI investments repeatedly halt at the pilot stage.Key takeaway: Simply providing suppliers or models is insufficient to solve customers’ operational issues.

Future (Short-term): Metrics Investors Should Watch Now

Identify companies that demonstrate rapid return on investment (ROI).

Check Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC) and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth rates.
Track customer retention rates and conversion rates (Free → Paid).
Examine model operating costs (electricity, cloud, accelerator costs) and infrastructure utilization rates.
Confirm the consistent emergence of meaningful revenue-generating case studies from customers.
Observe improvements in cash flow relative to capital expenditures (CapEx).Key takeaway: The core is a “repeatable revenue model,” not just a “technology demo.”

Future (Mid-term): Opportunities in Infrastructure, Semiconductors, and Data Centers

The massive computational demand leads to sustained demand for semiconductors and data centers.Continued demand for GPUs and AI accelerators benefits the semiconductor design, equipment, and materials sectors.Data centers become additional investment targets due to the need for power, cooling, and network upgrades.Companies offering hybrid cloud and on-premises services that create customer lock-in will have an advantage.Key takeaway: Regardless of the AI bubble debate, infrastructure demand is likely to increase structurally.

Future (Mid/Long-term): Who is the Ultimate Winner — Services vs. Models vs. Infrastructure

The criteria for winners differ across these three categories.

Model Providers: Require differentiated model performance and broad data access.
Service Providers (Vertical SaaS, Domain AI): Must be able to monetize by transforming specific industry business processes.
Infrastructure Providers (Cloud, Semiconductors, Data Centers): Must offer stable, scalable computation at a low cost.Long-term winners are those that move beyond simple model competition to lock in customers with services and infrastructure, generating recurring cash flow.Key takeaway: The key question is “Who can capture the most compute and customers?”

Investment Checklist: Specific and Actionable Items

1) Performance Verification: Demand documented customer cases and revenue conversion rates.2) Cost Structure: Thoroughly verify model operating costs, electricity, and data transfer fees.3) Technological & Infrastructure Edge: Assess if they possess proprietary hardware, optimized software stacks, and a partner ecosystem.4) Capital Strength and Cash Buffer: Given the significant CapEx requirements, calculate the cash burn rate.5) Valuation and Growth Expectations: In sectors with bubble concerns, question if growth assumptions are overly optimistic.6) Regulatory & Data Risks: Evaluate non-price risks such as personal information, national security, and export controls.Key takeaway: The consistency between numbers and actual customer performance is the core of investment decisions.

Response Strategies for Different Risk Scenarios

Response to Bubble Collapse (Price/Valuation Adjustment): Rebalance the portfolio towards companies with high performance and strong cash flow.Response to Supply Chain Shocks (e.g., Semiconductor Shortages): Focus on beneficiaries of semiconductor equipment and material supply chain diversification and domestic production.Response to Strengthened Regulations: Identify companies providing data sovereignty, security solutions, and decentralized architectures.Response to Deepening Technological Bottlenecks (e.g., Memory, Bandwidth): Players offering hardware optimization and software efficiency solutions will have an advantage.Key takeaway: It’s crucial to assess both defensive and profit-making opportunities for each risk scenario.

Operational Tips: Realistic Strategies for Individual Investors

Diversify investments across infrastructure, semiconductors, and cloud sectors through ETFs.Approach direct investment in hyper-personalized startups with high risk until proven performance emerges.Avoid getting swept up in short-term momentum; evaluate companies based on 3-5 year cash flow, technology, and contract pipelines.Key takeaway: It’s more important to select companies based on realistic metrics than to debate whether it’s an AI bubble.

Conclusion: The More Important Question Than Whether It’s a Bubble

The crucial question now is not “Is AI a bubble or not?”What matters is “Which companies can quickly prove their performance against investment?”Investments in infrastructure, semiconductors, and data centers are likely to continue growing based on structural demand.However, many companies may be eliminated amidst the overheated investment environment.Therefore, investors must rigorously evaluate technological and operational advantages, as well as the ability of customer bases to generate recurring revenue.Key takeaway: Avoid getting caught up in emotional bubble debates; focus on numbers and cash flow.

< Summary >

Shazeer views the core of AI development in hardware, computational power, and data centers.The MIT report highlighted that many enterprise AI investments ended without tangible results.The proliferation of personal AI demonstrates that it is already in the stage of actual use, while enterprise AI faces a steep learning curve due to operational, data, and regulatory issues.From an investment perspective, the winners are companies that generate repeatable revenue, not just technology demos.Infrastructure, semiconductors, and data centers offer structural opportunities, but their valuations and execution capabilities must be closely examined.

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [Silicon Valley Review] AI Bubble: Real or Exaggerated?

● Bitcoin Crash Derivatives, ETFs, Prime Brokers Fuel Synthetic Sell-off

“Just One Month Left”: The Real Reason for Bitcoin’s Sharp Decline and Imminent Risks — 9 Key Points Not Mentioned in the News About the Bitcoin and Ethereum Markets

Key Content Covered in This Article — What You’ll Gain by Reading:1) The “Invisible Fund Flow” that Triggered Bitcoin’s Sharp Decline2) The Mechanism of Explosive Short-Term Derivatives Market Movements (Options & Futures) and How They Create Actual Selling Pressure3) Synthetic Selling Created by Institutional ETFs & Prime Brokers (A Key Point Rarely Mentioned in the News)4) The Structural Reasons for Ethereum’s Standalone Strength and Its Risks (Staking, EIP, L2 Factors)5) A Practical Checklist for Future Perspectives: 1 Month, 3 Months, and 1 Year — What to Watch to Adjust Positions(SEO Keywords: Bitcoin Price, Cryptocurrency Market, Bitcoin Decline, Ethereum Rally, Macroeconomics)

1) Short-Term Trigger (0-24 Hours): Triggering Event and Immediate Reaction

Key Items: Large-scale OTC sales, surge in exchange inflows, sharp drop in futures open interest (OI), rapid rise in funding rates (causing forced liquidation of shorts/longs).
Core Content: While appearing as “large-scale selling” on the surface, it’s actually the delta hedging (adjustment of market-neutral positions) of option and futures positions transitioning into spot selling, rapidly absorbing liquidity.
Little-Known Point: When institutional spot ETFs are redeemed on a large scale, institutions often flood the market with “synthetic selling” through delta hedging of futures and options without directly selling spot assets. This is the core reason most news outlets miss.

2) Contagion Mechanism (1-72 Hours): Why the Decline Snowballs

Key Items: Chain liquidations, funding rate adjustments, automatic liquidation by algorithmic traders, liquidity vacuum (widening bid-ask spreads).
Core Content: When leveraged traders are liquidated, it leads to automatic selling, which in turn distorts funding rates, triggering further liquidations. During this process, spreads widen, making it difficult for “responsible” large buyers to enter, causing a sharp price drop.
Little-Known Point: Some large prime brokers, when their clients hit leverage limits, immediately execute forced liquidations according to their internal risk management regulations. While they may try to minimize visible losses through OTC or internal netting, these actions manifest as selling pressure in the spot market.

3) Mid-Term Causes (1 Week – 1 Month): Concurrent Action of Macroeconomics and Structural Factors

Key Items: Interest rate expectations (Fed, domestic central banks), dollar strength/weakness shifts, bond market volatility, banking risks, and credit crunches.
Core Content: The current economy has a strong “rollover” characteristic. Bubbles can only be sustained if interest rates decline, but if interest rate policy becomes uncertain due to macroeconomic indicators and political issues, risk assets (including Bitcoin) are sold off first.
Little-Known Point: Internal stress within banks and institutions (e.g., widening credit spreads) can suddenly cut off liquidity inflows to cryptocurrencies, contributing to sharp price declines. In other words, sharp cryptocurrency declines often occur in tandem with liquidity signals in the financial system.

4) Derivatives & ETF Interaction (Key Point Rarely Covered by News)

Key Items: Arbitrage between spot ETFs and futures, institutional delta-neutral strategies, ETF spot liquidation and redemption mechanisms.
Core Content: When spot ETFs buy spot assets, demand normally increases. However, if institutions simultaneously build positions in the futures and options markets to create delta-neutral positions, they can generate “synthetic selling” rather than “pure buying.” Particularly when ETFs face large redemption requests, they can create tension in spot liquidity by hedging through derivatives without immediately selling spot assets.
Little-Known Point: The speed at which ETF issuers’ financial and liquidity triggers (e.g., how they secure liquidity during large redemptions) are transmitted to the market determines the intensity and duration of the decline.

5) Reasons for Ethereum’s Rebound (Different Nature from Bitcoin)

Key Items: EIP-1559 fee burning mechanism, staking (yield) & unstaking timing, Layer 2 (Rollup) transitions, DeFi activity resurgence.
Core Content: Ethereum is evaluated more for its “platform value” than as a simple store-of-value. The combination of fee-linked burning, L2 growth, and staking rewards can lead to capital circulation and relative strength.
Little-Known Point: Institutions can more easily adjust short-term liquidity supply by utilizing more complex Ethereum-based derivative and spot structures than Bitcoin. Therefore, to assess whether Ethereum’s strength is “sustainable,” one must simultaneously monitor L2 activation, staking balance fluctuations, and burn rates.

6) Hidden Signals Visible Only Through On-Chain Metrics — 8 Must-Check Indicators

Exchange Netflow: Large inflows signal selling pressure.
Funding Rates and Open Interest (OI): Rapidly rising funding rates + decreasing OI = liquidation in progress.
Coin Holdings by Exchange: Concentration of coins on specific exchanges is a risk signal.
Miner/Large Wallet Sales (Metrics like Glassnode): Decreased miner holdings indicate increased spot supply.
SOPR, MVRV, Realized Price: Judging overbought/oversold conditions.
Stablecoin Supply (Total USDT/USDC): Contraction in stablecoin supply indicates weakening buying power.
Chain Activity (Active Addresses, TX Fees): Slowdown in actual usage is a long-term concern.
Options Skew and Vega Exposure: Widening put option premiums indicate psychological downward pressure.

7) Time-Based Response Strategies — 1-Month, 3-Month, 1-Year Perspectives

1 Month (Short-Term): Reduce leverage, pay attention to delta hedging around significant option expiries (monthly/quarterly), monitor exchange deposit/withdrawal patterns.
3 Months (Mid-Term): Rebalance portfolio in sync with bond and interest rate signals, check Ethereum L2 and staking flows, track ETF inflows.
1 Year (Long-Term): Judge fundamentals based on on-chain metrics (network usage, staking ratio, realized market cap), monitor regulatory changes (SEC/domestic regulations).

8) Position Management & Risk Control Checklist (Practical Guide)

Set Leverage Limits (Recommended ≤10-20% of total assets).
Hedge downside with options (buy puts or use call spreads).
Implement Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) for buying/selling (strategy by price levels) and ensure liquidity (maintain cash reserves).
Diversify Exchange Risk (Separate hot and cold wallets, distribute risk across multiple exchange accounts).
Set up automatic notifications based on on-chain metrics (Exchange inflow, funding rates, etc.).

9) The ‘Most Important Thing’ Not Covered by News — Internal Risk Policies of Prime Brokers & Large Institutions

Core Content: Internal risk regulations of prime brokers and institutions (e.g., forced liquidation/netting upon reaching a certain loss threshold) are immediately reflected in market liquidity. When they move on a large scale, it appears as simple “selling” externally, but it’s actually a byproduct of internal position adjustments.
Why It’s Important: These internal regulations and their execution timing can be hidden switches that shake the market without public disclosure. While individual investors find it difficult to monitor, on-chain inflows, exchange holdings, and changes in option skew serve as early warning signals.

Conclusion: 5 Warning Signs to Watch for in the Next 30 Days

1) Sharp increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges2) Rapid fluctuations in funding rates (especially sharp shifts from long to short)3) Significant increase in put premiums in option put-call skew4) Decrease in total stablecoin supply (market liquidity)5) Sudden directional shifts in bonds, interest rates, and the dollar index

< Summary >The essence of Bitcoin’s sharp decline lies not in apparent selling but in “synthetic selling” and liquidity vacuums stemming from the complex interplay of derivatives, ETFs, and prime brokers.In the short term (0-72 hours), margin calls and funding rates play an explosive role, while in the mid-term (1 week – 1 month), macro-financial factors (interest rates, dollar, credit crunch) act aggressively.Ethereum may show a different trend from Bitcoin due to its platform value, fee burning, staking, and L2 growth.Practical responses focus on reducing leverage, hedging with options, monitoring on-chain and derivative indicators, and closely watching signals from prime brokers and ETF redemptions.

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– “Just One Month Left”: Why Bitcoin’s Price Sudden Crash. Something Terrible Is About to Happen | …