● Court ruling reshapes AI race, tariff shock rocks Treasury, jobs data to drive Fed pivot.
[US Market Opening Points] iPhone 17 D-6, Fed’s Direction, and Big Tech Risks – 7 Key Insights to Grasp This Week
We’ve gathered the core points that will directly impact market transactions.The secondary effects of court rulings on the financial, AI, and advertising markets, the correlation between early September employment data and Treasury yields, short-term patterns and real trading ideas for the Apple iPhone 17 event, signals from Dollar Tree’s earnings that reveal insights into consumer behavior, and the industrial implications of SMR (Small Modular Reactor) contracts.We particularly emphasize insights less covered by other YouTubers or news outlets, such as the potential for “data sharing mandates to fundamentally alter the AI competitive landscape” and the “impact of tariff refund risks on federal finances and long-term interest rates.”
1) Market Summary (September 2nd) — Short-Term Catalysts and Implications (Chronological)
All three major New York indices closed lower.Concerns over tariff refunds and federal fiscal burdens emerged due to the appellate court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (reciprocal tariffs deemed illegal).As a result, 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose in tandem (30-year nearing 5%).For the stock market, rising long-term yields exert pressure on valuations.The ISM Manufacturing PMI (August) registered 48.7, indicating contraction for six consecutive months, leading to a slowdown in risk appetite.Next decisive event: Friday (September 5th) August Employment Report (expected increase of 75,000) – directly linked to the Fed’s future policy (continued tightening vs. timing of easing).
2) Court Ruling (Google/Chrome) — Not Just a Flurry: The Impact of ‘Data Sharing’
General reporting: Chrome’s divestiture demand was dismissed, and issues with Apple’s and Samsung’s default search agreements are temporarily resolved.However, the crucial aspect is the court’s order to ‘share search and user interaction data with qualified competitors.’Why is this important?Data is the core fuel for AI performance.If Google’s search data monopoly weakens, its AI performance advantage could rapidly shrink.Consequences:Potential reshuffling of the Big Tech AI competitive landscape – creating opportunities for latecomers like Microsoft, OpenAI, and Perplexity.Google’s long-term profitability becomes more uncertain, especially when coupled with potential divestiture of its advertising manager.Investment implications:Short-term: Stock price rebound due to ‘easing uncertainty’ immediately after the ruling.Medium to long-term: If increased data accessibility accelerates AI competition, it could lead to a revaluation of Google’s premium valuation.Practical strategy: For Google (Alphabet) holders, consider reducing positions or hedging until the details of the ruling (data scope, access methods) are confirmed.
3) Tariff Lawsuit (Ruling on Illegal Reciprocal Tariffs) — An Unforgettable ‘Fiscal Shock’
The appellate court ruled reciprocal tariffs illegal.Although President Trump has indicated his intention to appeal, the case is likely to proceed to the Supreme Court.Key risks:If the obligation to refund tariffs materializes, it will lead to a decrease in federal revenue (tariff revenue) and an expansion of the fiscal deficit.An expanding fiscal deficit connects to rising long-term interest rates (increased Treasury supply, higher risk premium).This ultimately poses additional downside risk to interest rate-sensitive assets (e.g., high-valuation tech stocks).Investment implications:The 10-year Treasury yield (e.g., breaking above 4.2%~4.3%) acts as a short-term risk trigger.A risk premium may persist until policy uncertainty (tariffs vs. Supreme Court ruling) is resolved.
4) Interaction Between the Fed, Employment, and Treasury Yields — This Week is Crucial
Key events this week: Beige Book (this afternoon), August Employment Report (September 5th).Market consensus anticipates ‘moderate employment slowdown’ (around 75,000 jobs added) – however, if the data is stronger than expected, it could lead to rising rates and a decline in stock prices.Rising Treasury yields (10-year and 30-year) directly impose a cost (higher discount rate) on equities.’A point not well-covered by other news’ – if concerns over tariff refunds spread, the Fed’s easing expectations could recede, realizing a potent but dangerous combination of ‘simultaneous slowdown and rate hikes.’Practical checklist:Employment surprise (positive) → Rates ↑ · Stocks ↓.Employment shock (negative: weak labor market) → Fed easing expectations ↑ · Potential for stock rebound.Bond positioning: Consider defensive positioning if the 10-year yield breaks above 4.25%.
5) Apple iPhone 17 Unveiling D-6 — Event Risks and Opportunities (Practical Rules)
Schedule: Unveiling on September 9th, expected launch on September 19th.Historical pattern:Average slight decline on the unveiling day (average 0.2% decline or flat in 8 out of 13 instances).The period from unveiling to launch sees an average increase of approximately +3% – indicating a positive ‘announcement to expectation build-up’ phase.Product focus:The first lineup of iPhone 17 Air (ultra-slim), new AirPods/Apple Watch models, and whether on-device AI will be announced are key stock catalysts.Core observation points (areas other media are not focusing on):The ‘practicality’ of on-device AI demonstrations will influence investor sentiment.If Apple presents meaningful on-device AI demos and a development roadmap, concerns about Apple’s AI capabilities could ease, potentially leading to a revaluation of its multiple.Practical trading ideas:Increased volatility on the event day – recommend reducing exposure to large positions.During the expectation phase after the announcement (September 9th – September 19th), consider small purchases of call options (short-term) or gradually increasing stock holdings.Alternative: If a sharp initial dip occurs immediately after the event, consider it a ‘dipping’ buying opportunity (as seen in many past instances of rebounds).
6) Dollar Tree Earnings — The Clearest ‘Bottom Signal’ for Consumption
Dollar Tree’s earnings surpassed consensus, but its Q3 guidance was conservative.Key observation points:Most of the revenue growth came from low-price, essential categories – consumers are shifting to value-oriented channels.Increased customer traffic and larger basket sizes were observed.Implications:On the surface, it reflects defensive consumer sentiment.It signals that ‘even with a strong stock market, the tangible consumer experience remains weak.’Investment implications:When reviewing consumer stock portfolios, consider increasing the weighting of dollar stores and low-price retail chains to secure defensive exposure.Expect increasing differentiation in earnings among retail and consumer goods sectors.
7) SMR (Small Modular Reactor) New Deal — Industrial Impact and Investment Risks
Event: Tennessee Valley Authority and companies announce plans for large-scale SMR installations (6GW, not 80GW? Scale of contract).This offers tangible benefits to companies with approved SMR standard designs, such as NuScale Power.Why is it important?It connects to government-led energy transition and security policies, suggesting potential for long-term orders and subsidies.It increases expectations for participation from the supply chains of Korean companies (e.g., Doosan Enerbility).However:The main risks lie in ‘regulation, construction, and financing until actual commercial operation’ – significant time and cost risks for commercialization.Investment implications:SMR-related sectors should be viewed as long-term options, and it is advisable to approach them when tangible project orders and contracts are confirmed rather than for short-term trading.
8) Strategic Checklist — Trading and Portfolio Action Guide
1) Short-term (this week): Reduce leveraged and tech-concentrated positions around the employment data.2) Interest rate checkpoints: Rebalancing of risk assets is necessary if the 10-year yield breaks above 4.25%~4.3%.3) Apple: Reduce exposure on the event day, and look for opportunities to buy more during the period between the announcement and launch.4) Google: Limit medium to long-term exposure or manage risk with call/put spreads until the details of the data sharing are confirmed.5) Consumer stocks: The strength of low-price channels like Dollar Tree is an early signal of economic slowdown – consider increasing exposure to essential daily necessities.6) Energy/SMR: Enter only as a trigger when development and order news are confirmed.
[Related Articles…]Apple iPhone 17 Unveiling D-6 — What Should You Watch and Buy?The Fed and Employment Data: September Rate Scenario Breakdown
*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]
– [美개장포인트] 애플 아이폰17 공개 D-6ㅣ”9월에는 3거래일안에 매도해야”ㅣ달러트리 호실적, 경기침체?ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕
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