● AI Investment Race Altman, MIT Report, Policy Risks Opportunities, 4 ETF Themes, Software Giants, Data Logic, Core-Satellite Strategy

Here’s the English translation, maintaining the original formatting:

Key Takeaways from this Article: The Real Meaning of the Sam Altman & MIT Report / Policy Risks & Opportunities Driven by the US Government’s AI ‘Winning Race’ / AI Investment Themes Classified into 4 Categories and Practical ETF Selection Methods / Reasons for AI Software Leaders (Palantir, Figma, Oracle, AppLovin, Tempus) and the Logic of Winning by Amassing Data / The Single Most Important Thing I Rarely Hear in the News — How to Neatly Capture it with ETFs, All Covered.

1) Recent Controversy Summary — Sam Altman, MIT Report, and Market Reaction (Chronological)

Sam Altman’s Statement (Recent) — Pointed out excessive valuations of some AI companies but remained optimistic about the potential of AI technology itself.MIT Report (Published) — Presented data showing that many generative AI projects have not translated into tangible financial results (approximately 95% marked as failures among surveyed entities).Media Reaction (Immediate) — Spread the “bubble” narrative, leading to increased volatility in tech stocks.Expert View (Interpretation from an ETF Portfolio Manager) — The MIT report serves as a ‘guide to improving adoption methods’ and is likely to create opportunities for B2B and specialized vendors (= AI software providers).

Key Message to Convey

Do not judge ‘all of AI as a failure’ based solely on the MIT data.Leading big tech and some top-tier companies have already proven their revenues and profits; the issue lies in the ‘proliferation of listings and overheating of early-stage startups.’

2) The Decisive Point I Rarely Hear in the News — Strategic Intervention by the US Government

The Trump administration’s AI Executive Order (recently signed) is not just about regulation or support.It shows a tangible commitment to ‘accelerating construction’ in terms of infrastructure and power, such as easing data center permitting, streamlining federal land and power usage, and relaxing environmental regulations.White House messaging frames the AI competition as a matter of ‘national hegemony (Winning Race),’ elevating it beyond mere market support to a political and economic priority.

Key Message to Convey

If the government rapidly pushes ‘AI infrastructure (data centers, power),’ demand for semiconductors, data centers, and cloud will structurally expand.This is a powerful policy demand (especially considering the influence of mid-term and presidential elections) that can offset short-term bubble risks, a point often not well-covered in other news.

3) Why I Lean Towards Optimism — Earnings, Corporate Behavior, and Structural Demand

Big tech is actually showing improvements in AI revenue and margins.Companies are unlikely to give up ‘money they’ve tasted once,’ so R&D, M&A, and infrastructure investments are likely to continue.With parallel support from the US government’s infrastructure and deregulation initiatives, industry-wide CAPEX and demand will persist for an extended period.

Key Message to Convey

While ‘bubbles’ exist, the likelihood of an ‘AI winter’ (a massive collapse in profitability) is low.Companies that survive the competition will become stronger, and the industry as a whole will grow.

4) Practical Investment Perspective — 4 Major US AI Market Themes (Temporal Flow of Investment Classification)

(1) US Big Tech — Leads initial demand and the market through AI R&D, services, and cloud.(2) AI Semiconductors — Hardware demand, centered around NVIDIA, expands first.(3) AI Power & Infrastructure — Data centers, cooling, power grids, and even nuclear power and grid improvements follow.(4) AI Software — The final stage where monetization concentrates through data, models, and services (a story similar to Microsoft in the PC era).

Key Message to Convey

Investment should be viewed through a ‘time axis.’Value is likely to shift from early stages (hardware, infrastructure) → mid-stages (services, platforms) → long-term (software lock-in, subscription revenue).

5) Why Focus on AI Software — Hidden Rules and Winner-Take-All

Software has a very strong lock-in effect.Once data, users, and integrated APIs accumulate, it becomes difficult for competitors to enter.AI’s success hinges on the combination of ‘data scale + model efficiency + deployment (productization),’ so companies that accumulate large-scale data early on will maintain their advantage.

Key Message to Convey

As AI matures, ‘software will become the center of revenue,’ and there is a high probability that software-centric leaders will emerge, mirroring the past PC-to-Microsoft trajectory.

6) 5 ‘Leader Candidates’ in AI Software Introduced Today — Why They Were Selected (ETF Composition Perspective)

Palantir — Data integration platform for government and enterprise, high lock-in and scalability through ontology-based data structuring.Oracle — Integrated cloud + AI infrastructure, possessing defense and government clients; a provider of staged AI infrastructure.Figma — Based on real-time collaboration in design/UI tools; high usage and data accumulation when AI is integrated into the creative workflow.AppLovin — Strong in AI-driven real-time targeting and monetization as a mobile advertising platform; benefits from the AI transformation of the advertising market.Tempus — AI based on medical data, with high barriers to entry and specialized revenue models due to possessing large-scale genomic and clinical data.

Key Message to Convey

These companies are candidates for long-term growth due to their ‘data + customer lock-in + domain expertise.’ETFs are significant in that they conveniently provide exposure to pure AI software.

7) ETF Investment Checklist (Practical Tips)

Top Holdings — Confirm the proportion of genuine ‘AI Software’ stocks.Check Overlap — Verify if it overlaps with existing big tech or semiconductor ETFs you hold.Expense Ratio & Liquidity (Trading Volume) — Check these.Underlying Index & Sampling Method — Understand them.Inception Date & Fund Manager Reliability — New products carry risks of initial liquidity and tracking error.Hedge Status & Sector Concentration — Even US ETFs have currency and sector concentration risks.

Key Message to Convey

While ‘convenience’ is an advantage of ETFs, ‘blindly buying’ is risky.Especially for AI theme ETFs, meticulous examination of holdings and overlap is necessary to achieve the desired exposure.

8) Risk Check — What Investors May Easily Miss

Valuation Risk — Some software and startups reflect excessive expectations.Policy & Regulatory Risk — Potential for increased personal data and safety regulations (including outside the US).Technology & Competitive Risk — Rapid technological changes can quickly dilute current ‘advantages.’Concentration Risk — Some ETFs may be excessively concentrated in a few stocks.Macro & Interest Rate Risk — Changes in interest rate and liquidity environments are sensitive to growth stocks.

Key Message to Convey

While risks are diverse, a significant portion can be managed through diversification (themes, ETFs, dollar-cost averaging).

9) Practical Portfolio Suggestion (Simple Framework)

Core — US Large-Cap Tech & Big Tech ETFs 30-40% (basis for stable returns).Theme (Hardware & Infrastructure) — Semiconductor & Data Center related ETFs 20-30% (receives CAPEX growth benefits).Software (Winner Bet) — Pure AI Software ETFs 20-30% (staggered buying for timing).Cash & Reserve Funds 5-10% — For seizing opportunities during adjustments.

Key Message to Convey

Adopt a ‘Core-Satellite’ approach to reduce AI investment risk while capturing profit potential.

10) Today’s One-Line Insight (Rarely Found on Other Channels)

The US government’s drive for AI infrastructure and policy, intertwined with electoral and hegemony strategies, is likely to provide sustained demand beyond short-term noise.

Key Message to Convey

In other words, investors need to recognize that ‘policy demand’ is a substantial structural factor that partially offsets market bubble concerns.

< Summary >The controversy surrounding Sam Altman and the MIT report merely points to the overheating of some companies, not the demise of AI as a whole.The US government’s strong commitment to AI infrastructure and policy can sustain demand for semiconductors, data centers, and cloud for an extended period.The value in AI investment themes is likely to shift sequentially from Big Tech → Semiconductors → Infrastructure → Software.AI software has the potential for winner-take-all due to data lock-in and economies of scale, making it attractive for long-term bets on winners.When investing via ETFs, meticulous checks on holdings, overlap, expense ratios, and liquidity are essential, with staggered buying and a Core-Satellite strategy recommended.

[Related Articles…]AI Investment Strategy: How to Construct a Mid-to-Long-Term PortfolioPractical ETF Guide: Diversifying with Sector ETFs

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– 이제 AI 시장의 주도주가 바뀐다? 승자 주식들 한방에 투자하는 법

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● US Jobs Shock Big Cut Rate Hike Now Likely

[Breaking News] US ‘Employment Shock’: ‘Big Cut Rate Cut’ Rapidly Gains Momentum [Immediate Analysis]

Advance Notice.The key points covered in this article are as follows:We will comprehensively cover immediate market reactions, variables for the Fed’s decision, hidden data that general media often overlooks (e.g., the discrepancy between labor participation rates and survey indicators), real-time capital flow impacts on Korea, and investment and policy response scenarios.Specifically, one point not often discussed in other news: the ‘qualitative changes’ hidden behind the superficial slowdown in employment are the decisive factors determining the speed and magnitude of the Fed’s rate cuts, and this will be deeply explored.

1) Immediately Released Employment Indicators (What Happened) – Chronological: Immediately After Release

US non-farm payroll data came in significantly below market expectations, signaling an ’employment slowdown.’More important than the sheer numbers released is the change in the composition of employment.This should not be interpreted solely based on the unemployment rate.Labor force participation, the proportion of temporary jobs, and differentiated slowdowns by industry (leisure & hospitality vs. manufacturing) have all appeared simultaneously.Average Hourly Earnings showed signs of deceleration, lowering expectations for inflation linkage.The widening gap between the survey-based household and establishment surveys suggests the possibility of ‘job numbers being maintained but with qualitative weakening.’This combination of indicators is a key catalyst for the Fed to re-evaluate its monetary policy.

2) Market Reaction (Immediate & Short-Term) – Chronological: Immediately After Release ~ 24 Hours

US Treasury yields immediately turned to a downward trend.Interest rate futures and Fed-funds futures began pricing in a faster and larger rate cut.The dollar generally weakened, and a period of risk appetite recovery for emerging market assets was observed.The stock market showed differentiated reactions depending on growth and interest rate-sensitive sectors.The interest rate differential and curve have become more likely to flatten in the short term.

3) Fed’s Perspective and Policy Decision Variables – Chronological: Analysis After Release → Until the Next FOMC

The Fed’s key judgment variables are inflation (core PCE), employment (unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls), and wages (wage growth).This shock has increased the likelihood that a weakening employment indicator will translate into downward pressure on inflation.Since Fed officials typically move based on ‘both employment and inflation,’ a weakening of employment alone could bring forward the timing of a rate cut.However, the Fed’s credibility and residual risks (e.g., persistent core inflation, structural changes in the labor market) may limit the magnitude of the cut.In practice, a ‘big cut’ scenario will be priced into the market with high probability in the short term, but the Fed will need additional confirming data to move substantially.In particular, the Fed’s public statements, voting tendencies of members, and the interest rate path projections (dot plot) will be crucial timing indicators.

4) Practical Point: One Important Factor Not Well Covered by Other Media

The most significant hidden fact is the ‘structural change in labor supply.’Declining labor force participation, changes in labor participation among the elderly and women, and the increase in freelance and platform work are not captured by simple unemployment figures.These changes are highly likely to be transmitted as downward pressure on inflation through a decrease in wage growth, and as a result, the Fed can approach rate cuts with a ‘fast’ but ‘cautious pace.’In other words, the magnitude of the Fed’s policy can be overestimated or underestimated based solely on superficial numbers (decrease in non-farm payrolls).

5) Macroeconomic Scenarios (Organized by Short, Medium, and Long Term) – Chronological: Now → 3 Months → 6-12 Months → Year-End

Now (Immediately After Release)Market interest rates fall, and Fed-funds futures surge in rate cut probability.The financial and stock markets may experience a short-term risk-on phase.

Within 3 MonthsThe Fed’s rate outlook will become more solidified depending on additional data (inflation, employment, labor force participation re-evaluation).If wage growth and core inflation also decelerate, a signal for an initial substantial cut (e.g., 25-50 bps) will strengthen.

6-12 MonthsIf the economic momentum worsens significantly, the market will continue to price in ‘big cuts.’Conversely (if wages and inflation re-accelerate), rate cut expectations may partially recede.

Year-End (Long Term)As the real economy and the Fed’s stance stabilize, the interest rate path will move towards a new normalization level.For emerging markets like Korea, redistribution of capital inflows and currency fluctuations will occur.

6) Financial Markets and Asset Allocation Practical Guide (Checklist for Investors, Businesses, and Policymakers)

Investors (Institutional & Individual)Bonds: Utilize short-term interest rate declines but prepare for curve risk (volatility of long and short-term interest rates).Stocks: Confirm defensive capabilities of stable profit stocks (high dividend, consumer staples) compared to cyclical stocks.Dollar/Currency: Manage foreign asset currency exposure in preparation for a potential dollar weakening.

Businesses (Including Exporters)Re-examine hedging strategies and immediately calculate the impact of interest rate changes on financing costs.Wage and employment plans should focus on securing flexibility in preparation for short-term demand slowdowns.

Policymakers (Korea)Review foreign exchange market stabilization mechanisms.Prepare countermeasures for financial stability risks (stock market bubbles, short-term capital outflows).

7) Impact Pathways and Schedule for Korea (Organized Chronologically)

ImmediatelyPotential capital inflows into Korea due to dollar weakness and global risk-on.Possibility of some easing in short-term foreign exchange market volatility.

Short-Term (Weeks to Months)If the expectation of US rate cuts materializes, the Korean won will face upward pressure.Won appreciation has a double effect: concerns about exchange rate losses for exporters and easing of import prices.

Medium-Term (6-12 Months)Interlinked with the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy schedule (planned meetings in 2025), the Bank of Korea is also likely to re-evaluate its interest rate policy.We need to monitor risks of asset price bubbles (housing, stocks) and credit expansion due to capital inflows.

8) Risks and Inverse Scenarios (Indicators to Monitor Chronologically)

Major RisksRe-acceleration of wage and service inflation (undermining the Fed’s rate cut expectations).Seasonal adjustments and data revisions of labor market indicators (risk of numbers being revised upwards).Geopolitical risks (trade wars, policy risks) negatively impacting global trade and investor sentiment.

Inverse Scenarios (If the Fed Cuts Less/More)Less Cuts: Asset price adjustments and renewed dollar strength if economic recovery signals are strong.More Cuts: Overheating of risk assets due to liquidity expansion, significant capital inflows and currency fluctuations.

9) Actionable Checklist (30-Day & 90-Day Perspectives)

Next 30 DaysMonitor the Fed’s speeches and FOMC member speech schedules.Check daily Treasury auction and futures price movements.Businesses should re-evaluate short-term currency hedging.

Next 90 DaysCombine employment and inflation indicator trends (unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, wages, labor force participation).Identify policy transition periods by confirming decisions and summaries from the Bank of Korea and other major central banks.

10) Policy Recommendations (Korean Government & Central Bank Perspective)

Strengthen measures to cushion foreign exchange and financial market volatility.Prepare for short-term liquidity supply and financial stability facilities.Improve labor market data and supplement statistics on structural changes such as platform labor.

< Summary >

The slowdown in US non-farm payrolls has a meaning beyond simple numbers.Changes in labor force participation and wage composition determine the timing and magnitude of the Fed’s rate cuts.The market (Treasuries, futures) is already heavily pricing in rate cuts, which can lead to dollar weakness, capital inflows, and won appreciation.Korea needs immediate and short-term risk management in terms of currency, exports, and capital flows.It is necessary to observe key indicators (unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, wages, labor force participation) chronologically and develop response strategies focusing on Fed statements and FOMC schedules.

[Related Articles…]US Interest Rate Outlook and Impact on Korean Exports AnalysisExchange Rates & Capital Outflows: The Impact of a Strong Dollar on the Korean Financial Market

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [속보] 미국 ‘고용 쇼크’ : ‘빅컷 금리인하’ 급부상 [즉시분석]

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● KF-21 Engine Nationalism Reshapes Korean Economy-Industry Map

The Game-Changing Localization of Engines: How the KF-21 is Reshaping Korea’s Economic and Industrial Landscape

The core of this article revolves around:

The economic ripple effects of the KF-21’s armament and engine localization, extending beyond mere military achievement to impact Korea’s defense and civilian industries.

The potential for securing profits from the global supply chain reshuffling, exports, and the aftermarket (maintenance and repair), and the subsequent strategic and industrial realignments between South Korea, the US, China, and Europe.

The most crucial point, often overlooked by other YouTube channels and news outlets, is ‘the civilian technological transfer and the long-term service revenue structure changes that engine localization will create’.

Below, we break down the key messages and detailed ripple effects, organized by group and item, chronologically.

1) The Present (as of H2 2024) — Occurred Events and Immediate Impacts

Announcements and video content from late August unveiled plans for the KF-21’s armament and performance upgrades, along with the latest developments in engine localization, drawing significant attention.

Alongside mentions of potential collaboration with Rolls-Royce, the resolve to ‘develop domestic engines’ has strengthened.

Concurrently, favorable evaluations of the KF-21 have been reported from the Middle East and Europe following hands-on assessments.

Furthermore, US military pressure (e.g., the Venezuela case) and the prolonged war in Russia are fundamentally altering the defense demand structure itself.

In short, a quantitative and qualitative shift in defense demand is being observed in the short term.

2) Short-Term Effects (1-3 Years) — Sensitive Shifts in Contracts, Supply Chains, and Corporate Stock Prices

The announcement of the KF-21 being equipped with domestically produced weapons immediately boosts the prospects for orders in related component, power electronics, and missile companies.

Demand for companies involved in domestic engine development (e.g., turbine, composite material, precision machining companies) surges.

Aftermarket (maintenance, replacement parts, lifecycle services) revenue emerges as a new source of income.

There is a high probability of positive re-evaluation for the stock prices and valuations of domestic companies (e.g., KAI affiliates, Hanwha Group, Doosan).

However, the potential for short-term supply bottlenecks and cost increases also rises, making government subsidies and financial support crucial.

3) Mid-Term Effects (3-7 Years) — Industrial Advancement and Labor/Technology Spillovers

Engine localization goes beyond securing a finished product; it leads to the localization of high-value technologies such as turbines, materials, thermal management, and precision machining.

These technologies transfer to sectors beyond military engines, including power turbines, aircraft engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), and the marine and energy industries.

Consequently, an increase in highly skilled jobs and the advancement of R&D systems follow.

The role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within the defense industry’s value chain expands, leading to a restructuring of the industrial ecosystem.

Moreover, engine localization enhances the competitiveness of ‘weapon + support’ package exports when selling overseas.

4) Long-Term Structural Changes (7+ Years) — Strategic Realignment and Global Market Reshaping

By bundling the KF-21 with domestically produced engines into an export package, South Korea can establish a differentiated positioning compared to its competitors.

Particularly in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, it will be recognized as a supplier capable of providing ‘fully self-reliant platforms’ (aircraft + engine + logistics).

This will shake the existing defense industry landscape dominated by major powers and redefine the economic significance of alliances and partnerships.

Furthermore, aftermarket revenue from engines becomes a more stable and long-term source of foreign currency earnings than weapon sales themselves.

These changes have the potential to alter Korea’s national competitiveness indicators in the defense industry over the long term.

5) Geopolitical and Policy Implications — Alliances, Sanctions, and Risk Management

Strengthening cooperation with the United States presents an opportunity to rebuild the ROK-US alliance in terms of technology and supply chains.

However, engine technology, as a core strategic asset, involves sensitive issues concerning technology transfer and intellectual property rights.

The reactions of regional powers like China and Russia create concomitant risks of sanctions on export routes and component procurement.

Therefore, close coordination of diplomatic, trade, and industrial policies, along with diversification strategies, is essential.

Government industrial policies, export financing, and technology protection policies are directly linked to the success of the KF-21.

6) 5 Key Points Not Often Discussed in Other News

1) Engine localization drives ‘civilian-military technology transfer,’ catalyzing productivity innovation in the civilian energy and aviation sectors.

This can connect to the demand for high-efficiency turbines, such as for power generation and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).

2) The aftermarket (maintenance, parts, upgrades) generates stable revenue over a longer period than weapon sales.

Securing this market with domestically produced engines guarantees a continuous inflow of foreign currency.

3) Engine localization provides the status of a ‘supplier’ rather than merely a ‘manufacturer’ for exports.

This is the key to transforming one-off weapon sales into a recurring revenue model.

4) Technological self-reliance mandates a transformation of the domestic material and component industries.

It accelerates the shift of manufacturing towards high value-added over the long term.

5) Amidst geopolitical uncertainties, a ‘complete product + service’ package reduces the buyer’s strategic burden, increasing export potential.

7) Points to Watch from a Corporate and Investor Perspective

Sectors expected to benefit from the KF-21 and domestic engine-related industrial ecosystem include aerospace, materials (high-temperature alloys, composites), precision machining, power electronics, and MRO services.

Specific company examples include KAI (aircraft manufacturing), Hanwha (missiles, defense), Doosan (potential linkage with turbine/engine technology), Hanwha Systems (electronics, sensors), and LIG Nex1 (weapon systems).

However, this is not investment advice, and risks for each company (raw materials, technology development failure, export restrictions, etc.) must be carefully reviewed.

8) Policy Recommendations — The Combination of Industrial Policy and Diplomacy is Key

First, long-term R&D funding and tax incentives for engine development must be clearly established.

Second, technology cooperation with overseas partners requires clear definitions of IP protection and commercial rights.

Third, investments in workforce training and infrastructure are necessary to foster aftermarket and MRO capabilities.

Fourth, export diversification policies are needed to prepare for sanction risks.

Fifth, systematic promotion of industry-academia-research cooperation models that facilitate civilian-military technology transfer is essential.

9) Economic Impact by Scenario (Brief Division)

Optimistic Scenario: Successful engine localization, expanded KF-21 package exports, and increased aftermarket revenue secure long-term growth drivers for the defense industry.

Neutral Scenario: Core components are still imported through technological cooperation, aftermarket revenue is limited, but some domestic capabilities are strengthened.

Pessimistic Scenario: Project delays due to technology transfer constraints, budget cuts, and geopolitical risks, leading to increased cost burdens.

< Summary >

The armament and engine localization of the KF-21 are not just about military power but represent a transformation of Korea’s defense industry business model.

The most critical point is the potential for engine localization to drive technology transfer to civilian industries and generate long-term revenue based on the aftermarket.

In the short term, it will positively impact related companies’ orders and stock prices, and in the medium to long term, it will lead to industrial advancement and enhanced export competitiveness.

However, practical challenges remain, including technology protection, diplomatic risks, and securing funding and personnel.

Policies must be designed to consider both industrial and diplomatic strategies, and success promises a significant leap forward for both Korea’s defense industry and related civilian sectors.

[Related Articles…]

KF-21 Export Competition and Engine Localization Strategy

Economic Impact of Domestic Engine Development on Korea’s Defense Industry

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– 180도 뒤집힌 엔진 국산화 판도. KF-21 앞으로 더 무서워진다｜김대영 군사평론가 풀버전

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