● US Jobs Blowout-Rate Cut Odds Surge-Tesla Payout Bonanza-Broadcom-OpenAI AI Chip Shakeup

The core content of today’s article is as follows:

The numerical and “quality” aspects of US employment data (non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate) and the structural signals they provide.
The actual risks associated with the widely discussed “likelihood of interest rate cuts” in the market.
The difficulty, impact on shareholders and management, and hidden intentions behind Tesla’s unprecedented compensation plan.
The structural impact of the Broadcom x OpenAI collaboration on the AI semiconductor competitive landscape and NVIDIA.
A practical checklist and warning points that should be immediately reflected in investment strategies, which are often not emphasized by other YouTube channels or news outlets.

1) Today’s Stock Market Overall — The True Nature of Stock Market Volatility

Today’s market, with the Nasdaq fluctuating by over ±1% intraday before closing slightly lower, demonstrates “extreme stock market volatility.”

The market was pressured downwards by deteriorating employment figures on one hand, and on the other, it saw rebounds driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts.

Key Keywords: Stock Market Volatility, US Employment, Interest Rate Cuts.

2) US Employment Data Analysis — Quality is More Concerning Than Quantity

Non-farm payrolls (NFP) showed an increase of only 22,000, falling short of the expected 75,000.

While the July figures might appear better on the surface, the upward/downward revisions to June’s employment numbers, indicating an actual decrease in June, are far more critical.

This signals a weakening trend rarely seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a level high in recent years.

Historically, recessions tend to exhibit a pattern of the unemployment rate rising slowly before a sharp increase; this is now read as a signal that we have entered the “slowly rising phase.”

What’s even more important is the “quality of employment.”

Job growth is heavily concentrated in healthcare, while quality jobs in manufacturing, information technology, and finance are fragile.

The decline in full-time jobs and the increase in part-time/low-quality jobs indicate weakening economic recovery.

A crucial implication not well covered by other news: The concentration in healthcare, due to its defensive nature, can temporarily mask a decline in “total employment.” However, genuine economic recovery (accompanied by productivity growth, wage increases, and capital expenditures) must originate from manufacturing, IT, and finance, and that sector remains weak.

3) Market Reaction — Why Did Expectations of “Interest Rate Cuts” Increase?

The weakening employment data has amplified bets that the Fed will lower interest rates sooner.

Investor sentiment has shifted, with derivatives markets (e.g., Fed funds futures) now reflecting increased probabilities of rate cuts in September and within the year, and even a potential 50bp cut.

This is why stock price declines and expectations of rate cuts (stock price increase factors) are in a delicate balance.

Important hidden risk: The market’s “50bp bet” is not just a mere increase in expectations; it embodies tail risks of “Fed policy mistakes” or an “inflation resurgence.”

If interest rates are lowered too quickly, asset prices may rebound in the short term, but if inflation reaccelerates, it could lead to more significant tightening and stock market declines in the future.

4) Medium to Long-Term Perspective — Key Points by Scenario

Optimistic Scenario: If inflation stabilizes (core CPI declines) and weakening employment proves to be a mild slowdown, the Fed may gradually proceed with interest rate cuts. In this case, risk assets (especially growth stocks) have significant room for rebounds.

Pessimistic Scenario: If weakening employment deepens and leads to demand collapse, or if inflation accelerates again after rate cuts, it could result in “stagflation + policy confusion,” leading to sustained severe volatility.

Investment Point: Real-time monitoring of inflation (especially core CPI), the bond market (10-year yields), and Fed statements is crucial.

5) Tesla Compensation Plan — The Essence of the Numbers and Hidden Impacts

Tesla’s board-proposed compensation plan for Elon Musk is structured around 12 milestones, with 1% of outstanding shares granted upon achievement of each.

The first milestone involves achieving a market capitalization of $2 trillion and a cumulative 4-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $50 billion, targets significantly higher than current levels.

The final milestones are “highly ambitious” figures, including a market capitalization of $8.5 trillion, 20 million vehicle deliveries, 1 million robotaxis in operation, and 1 million Optimus robots.

Most news outlets only mention the “large scale,” but my focus is on the “difficulty.”

Given the extreme difficulty, the probability of compensation realization is low, thus limiting concerns about shareholder dilution. However, there are hidden risks.

First, the possibility of accounting or policy maneuvers to achieve targets (e.g., using loopholes for EBITDA adjustment items).

Second, concentration of management and power. If Musk becomes fixated on achieving targets, he may push for aggressive investments and product launches in the short term, which could lead to greater volatility.

Third, political and regulatory risks. Musk’s political activities and dispersed attention indicate the compensation plan’s intent to “drive focus,” and it could also attract the attention of regulatory bodies.

6) Broadcom x OpenAI Collaboration and AI Semiconductor Competition — Structural Shock to NVIDIA

Broadcom’s AI-related revenue growth of 63% year-over-year is highly significant.

Broadcom’s announcement that it will develop “custom AI chips” targeting large AI traffic customers like OpenAI is more than just a product line expansion.

The key is “customization.” NVIDIA has dominated large-scale training and inference with its general-purpose GPUs (off-the-rack suits). Broadcom can encroach upon certain areas of NVIDIA’s domain (especially inference, or cloud-optimized areas) with “ASICs and accelerators tailored to specific workloads.”

Points I haven’t seen well covered elsewhere are:

First, the Broadcom-OpenAI collaboration is likely to focus initially on chips for inference. Inference requires large-scale deployment, low latency, and low power consumption designs, making ASICs economically advantageous.

Second, it can accelerate the trend of “vertical integration” among cloud providers. Custom chips combined with Kubernetes and software optimization can lower the total cost for CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) and change the competitive landscape.

Third, if NVIDIA’s “pricing and supply dominance” is shaken, the cost structure of AI infrastructure will change, impacting the unit costs and margins of AI startups and services.

Consequently, Broadcom’s advancement poses a tangible challenge to NVIDIA’s monopolistic position.

7) Practical Investment Strategies and Checklist

Short-Term Response (1-3 months): Volatility is extremely high, so reduce position sizes and hedge risk with options.

Medium-Term Response (3-12 months): Consider asset allocation that prepares for both interest rate cut scenarios and weakening employment scenarios.

Specific Checklist:

Monitor core CPI and PCE trends for signs of reaccelerating inflation.
Closely observe changes in “industry-specific employment” in employment data (weakness in manufacturing, IT, and finance are warning signs).
Periodically review the feasibility of achieving each milestone in Tesla’s compensation plan and related financial policies (options, dilution) on a quarterly basis.
Pay close attention to the “customized chip” roadmap in earnings calls of Broadcom, NVIDIA, and cloud service providers.

8) Risk Monitoring Points — 5 Things to Check Immediately

The direction of revisions in the next NFP and unemployment rate releases (the previous month’s revision is a key signal).
The frequency and tone of Fed officials’ remarks expressing “inflation concerns.”
Volatility in the bond market (2Y-10Y spread) and whether the yield curve inversion persists.
Tesla’s quarterly adjusted EBITDA items and the commercialization schedule for robotaxis/Optimus.
Technical details of the Broadcom-OpenAI collaboration (inference vs. training, TTM release plans).

The Most Important Things Not Well Covered by Other News (Summary)

The “quality” of employment, not just the “quantity,” is already being interpreted as a more significant weakening signal in the market.
The surge in the probability of interest rate cuts is not merely good news; it simultaneously amplifies tail risks of “policy failure and inflation resurgence.”
The true meaning of Tesla’s compensation plan is a strategy to “drive management focus by setting near-impossible targets.”
Broadcom’s custom AI chips can provide a tangible advantage in the inference market and can substantially shake NVIDIA’s dominance.

< Summary >US employment data shows worse “quality” than its surface numbers suggest. Due to this, the market is pricing in interest rate cuts more aggressively, which acts as a short-term stock price support factor but carries the risk of inflation reacceleration. Tesla’s compensation plan’s core is its difficulty rather than its scale; while low achievability limits dilution concerns, it carries the potential to induce accounting and policy maneuvers. The Broadcom x OpenAI collaboration can alter the AI semiconductor competitive landscape, posing a structural challenge to NVIDIA’s monopolistic dominance. Investors must adjust their positions by real-time monitoring of inflation, the quality of employment, Fed statements, and AI chip roadmaps.

*Source: [ 내일은 투자왕 – 김단테 ]

– 고용폭망과 테슬라

● US August Jobs Data Recession Fears Rise – Tariff-Inflation Spiral Threatens Fed Policy – Korea’s Fiscal Doom Looming

[LIVE Instant Analysis] US August Employment Data In-depth Analysis: Tariffs, Will a ‘Unemployment Shock’ Arrive — Real-time Interpretation and South Korea’s Long-term Fiscal Risks

Key Points Covered in This Article (Must Read Beforehand).The ‘immediate market reaction’ to the US employment data (unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, wages) and the possibility of conflict with inflation data (PPI, CPI) due in 48 hours.The impact of the Fed’s policy shift (Jackson Hole remarks → Fed officials’ stance change) and political variables (White House-Fed relationship) on interest rates and the yield curve.The timing of tariffs transferring to PPI → CPI and the resulting stagflationary risk.And other channels (less emphasized by most news) — the ‘politicization of Fed policy’ and the potential rise in term premium (long-term interest rate increase) due to it, and South Korea’s long-term fiscal scenario for 2065 (including the depletion of social insurance).

1) Instant Analysis — August Employment Data (Timeline Based)

Pre-Release Expectations (Just Before Announcement).Market expectations were for a moderate worsening of the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls around 75,000, and wages continuing to slow from their peaks.Announcement (Local Time).The unemployment rate recorded 4.3% (close to market expectations).Non-farm new hires were +22,000, significantly below market expectations (around 75,000).Average hourly earnings (wage growth rate) slowed further to 3.7%.Immediate Market Reaction (Immediately After Announcement).Short-term: Short-term Treasury yields plummeted, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed into stocks, crypto, and risk assets due to a surge in interest rate cut expectations.Mid-term: Traders priced in the possibility of an ‘accelerated rate cut (increased expectation for a September big cut).’However, Points of Caution (Less Emphasized by Other Channels).The sustained low growth in non-farm payrolls (below 100,000 for four consecutive months) is not merely a seasonal factor.It signals a structural slowdown in corporate investment and hiring, and there is a possibility of a rapid cooling of the labor market.

2) Fed’s Judgment Shift and Policy Timeline

Key Signal at Jackson Hole.The gist of remarks by key Fed officials, including Powell: ‘The balance has shifted from inflation concerns to employment concerns’ — meaning there is a greater likelihood of prioritizing employment stability.Divided Messages from Fed Officials.Some Fed officials (New York, Boston, etc.) lean towards rate cuts.Others (those emphasizing inflation) take the stance of waiting to confirm the downward stabilization of services and wages.Policy Timeline (Important Dates).September 10: PPI (Producer Price Index) announcement.September 11: CPI (Consumer Price Index) announcement.September 17-18: FOMC meeting (interest rate decision/possibility of a cut).Key Interpretation Points.If employment deteriorates, the Fed has a greater incentive to quickly pivot to rate cuts. However, if tariffs shock PPI → CPI increases, the Fed may postpone or scale back cuts.Ultimately, the inflation data to be released in the second week of September is the ‘key’ that will determine market direction for the next two months.

3) Tariff War (New Tariffs, Political Tariffs) and the Time Lag Risk of Inflation

Tariffs create an immediate inflation shock first in PPI, and then transmit to CPI with a time lag.The expanded tariffs in August and September (especially centered on imports) are likely to remove downside risks from inflation indicators in November and December.For this reason, even if employment signals deteriorate, if inflation becomes unstable again, the Fed will be in a dilemma, needing to manage both employment and inflation ‘simultaneously.’Important Invisible Factors (Points Lightly Addressed by Other Media).Tariffs and trade policies, as ‘policy shocks,’ are easily omitted from predictive statistics and can distort the Fed’s monetary policy judgments.Consequently, while the market might react with ‘bad news is good’ (deteriorating employment → rate cuts), there is a risk of a ‘good news is bad’ reversal if the tariff shock pushes inflation back up.

4) Political Variables — Potential Weakening of Fed Independence and Financial Market Ripple Effects

The Most Important Content Not Emphasized by Others (Mentioned Directly Here).Recent personnel changes and remarks have shown signals of blurring boundaries between the White House and the Fed.A certain Fed official’s ‘desire for dual roles’ remarks (intent to maintain a White House-related position concurrently) reveals the possibility of political interference in monetary policy.Implications for the Real Economy and Finance.Politicization of policy will, in the short term, fuel expectations for rate cuts, leading to lower short-term interest rates.However, the market will recognize the weakening of central bank independence as a risk and will raise the term premium (long-term interest rates).The result will be an expansion of the yield curve (steepening), rising long-term interest rates, and increased volatility in long-term Treasuries — in other words, a situation where long-term bonds are not safe despite ‘rate cut expectations.’Impact on Emerging Markets like South Korea.Rising long-term interest rates (expanding term premium) can shock foreign positions in emerging markets, leading to widening country spreads → currency depreciation → accelerated capital outflows.

5) Immediate and Medium-to-Long-Term Financial Market Impact Summary

Immediate (Minutes to Days).Plummeting short-term interest rates and short-term bond yields, falling dollar index, rally in stocks and risk assets.Medium-term (Weeks to Months).Directional adjustment based on inflation data on September 10-11.If PPI and CPI rise due to tariff impact, a sharp decline in risk assets and a dollar rebound are possible.Long-term (Months to Years).If the politicization of Fed policy combines with rising term premiums, long-term Treasury yields may not fall (weak long-term yield decline even with rate cut expectations).In this case, asset allocation strategy: defense against long-term bonds (duration), securing liquidity with short-term bonds, and hedging against currency risk and bond spreads are recommended.

6) South Korea’s Long-Term Fiscal Outlook (Up to 2065) — Numbers and Timeline

Report Summary (Summary of Ministry of Economy and Finance Long-Term Fiscal Outlook).Total expenditures will continue to increase, and mandatory expenditures (pensions, health insurance, long-term care, etc.) are projected to rise sharply due to an aging population.Total revenue is projected to decline after peaking in 2035 (reflecting population and growth slowdown).Result: Widening fiscal deficit for an extended period.Key Social Insurance Outlook (Summary Based on Report Figures).National Pension: Deficit turn around ~2048, possibility of depletion (base scenario) by 2064.Health Insurance: Deficit turn around 2026, depletion scenario by 2033.Long-Term Care Insurance for the Elderly: Deficit turn around 2026, depletion scenario by 2030.Civil Servant and Military Pensions: Already in a state of structural deficit.National Debt Ratio Scenarios.Even under the neutral scenario (baseline assumption), the national debt ratio is projected to be in the range of 133% to 156% by 2065.In the pessimistic scenario, it could rise to 173%.Short-term expansionary fiscal policies by successive administrations/years (e.g., budget increase plans for 2025-26) can further worsen the long-term fiscal situation.Unique Risk Point (Less Emphasized by Other Media).South Korea’s interest expenses (national interest payments) already amount to approximately 34 trillion KRW annually, which is comparable to the national R&D budget.This means that the expanding interest burden is highly likely to translate into a structural problem that erodes resources available for growth investment (technology, talent).

7) Policy and Investment Recommendations — Short-term, Medium-term, Long-term

Short-term (Next 2 Weeks).High volatility expected until the PPI announcement on September 10 and CPI announcement on September 11.Positioning: Reduce leverage, increase holdings of short-term bonds and cash, recommend hedging against dollar and long-term bonds.Medium-term (Next 3-6 Months).Monitor the Fed’s September rate decision (whether to cut) and the transmission of tariff shocks to inflation.Positioning: Prepare for vulnerabilities in long-term maturities (adjust positions in anticipation of rising term premiums), bet on yield curve steepening, or manage duration with interest rate swaps.Recommendations for South Korean Investors.Sensitive to foreign capital flows, so monitoring the US-South Korea benchmark interest rate differential and bond spreads is essential.Maintain a defensive portfolio for domestic stocks, contrasting with sectors facing economic and export slowdowns (domestic demand, services).Long-term (Policy).A timetable for fiscal rules and social insurance reforms must be presented.A clear prioritization is needed between short-term economic stimulus and long-term growth investment (infrastructure, R&D, talent development).Specifically, structural adjustments are needed to prevent R&D investment from being eroded by increasing interest expenses.

< Summary >US August employment data showed ‘labor market cooling’ signals with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, non-farm payrolls at +22,000, and wage growth at 3.7%.In the short term, expectations for Fed rate cuts surged, leading to a risk-asset-preferring market reaction. However, if tariff shocks transmit to PPI → CPI, inflation impacts will again make the Fed’s decision on cuts difficult.An important, less-discussed point: the possibility of political interference by the Fed (weakening policy independence) creates a ‘paradoxical’ risk of pushing up long-term interest rates by increasing term premiums, despite short-term rate declines.South Korea faces a risk of significantly rising national debt ratios in its long-term fiscal outlook (2065 projection) due to increasing mandatory expenditures and slowing revenue, with most social insurances facing deficit turnarounds or depletion risks between 2026 and 2048.Investment strategy requires avoiding short-term volatility, managing long-term duration and spread risks, and policy-wise, establishing fiscal rules and redefining growth investment priorities.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [LIVE] 미국 8월 고용지표 심층분석 : 관세전쟁, ‘실업률 쇼크’ 올까 [즉시분석]

● US Aug Jobs Shock – Fed Sep Cut Incoming Stocks-Bonds-Sectors-Checklist

[Breaking News] US August Jobs ‘Shock’ — September Fed Rate Cut a Foregone Conclusion? Stock, Bond, and Sector Impacts and Investment Checklist Thoroughly Organized

The following key contents are included in this article.

Key figures from the August jobs report and immediate market reactions in bonds and stocks.
Changes in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September (25bp vs. 50bp) and insights from historical parallels (2024 cases).
‘Hidden Risks’ and data revision possibilities not widely covered by other media: the likelihood of this release being significantly revised downwards, as in the past, and its implications.
Short- and medium-term investment strategies and risk management points for sectors and asset classes (tech stocks, financials, bonds, credit).
A calendar of upcoming data (weekly jobless claims, ISM, PCE, etc.) and priorities that investors must check.

1) August Jobs Report Summary (Key Figures)

August non-farm payrolls increased by approximately +22,000, significantly below Wall Street’s consensus estimate (around 75-80k).The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.Average hourly earnings growth remained moderate, at +0.3% month-over-month and +3.7% year-over-year.By major industry, healthcare saw hiring increases, while a noticeable decrease in jobs was observed in areas like the federal government, mining, and manufacturing.Broader employment indicators, such as the long-term unemployed and those employed part-time for economic reasons, continue to show weak signals.(SEO Keywords: US Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation)

2) Immediate Market Reaction — Interest Rates, Bonds, Stocks

Both short- and long-term Treasury yields fell sharply.The 10-year yield dropped to around 4.10%, and short-term rates (policy-sensitive segment) also declined significantly.This led to a sharp increase in bets on Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a 25bp cut in September rising to nearly 99%.The stock market reacted positively to falling rates, with strong expectations for a rally led by technology stocks.(SEO Keywords: Rate Cut, Stock Market)

3) The Fed’s Dilemma — 25bp vs. 50bp

Current market bets are almost fully pricing in a 25bp cut in September.However, given the historical precedent of a strong ‘jobs shock’ leading to a ’50bp cut’ in September 2024, some in the market are discussing the possibility of a 50bp cut.While the Fed has confirmed signs of slowing employment, it still needs to closely monitor the trend of core inflation (especially service and wage-linked inflation).Therefore, the Fed’s decision will be ‘data-dependent,’ with the magnitude likely determined by the most recent data (employment and inflation trends since August).(SEO Keywords: Federal Reserve, Rate Cut, Inflation)

4) The Most Important Point Less Discussed by Other Media — ‘Revision Risk’ and Structural Supply Factors

The true meaning of this jobs shock lies not only in the initial figures but also in the ‘future revision pattern.’In past economic turning points and the post-pandemic period, initial new job numbers released in preliminary reports have repeatedly been significantly revised downwards later.A combination of declining response rates in business and household surveys and hiring delays could lead to further weakening of statistics over the next two months.This may not be a simple seasonal fluctuation but could signal a ‘structural conservatism in hiring’ and ‘changes in labor supply.’In essence, the key risk, less emphasized by other reports, is that this release could foreshadow further deterioration (downward revisions) in the future.(SEO Keywords: US Employment, Federal Reserve)

5) Sectoral Impacts and Investment Strategies (Short-Term, Medium-Term)

Technology Stocks: Valuation is positively impacted by falling interest rates (especially the narrowing of the long-term and short-term yield spread).Recommendation: Consider increasing exposure to large-cap technology and AI-related stocks with clear growth momentum.
Financials and Banks: These could be negatively affected by falling short-term rates and the potential for an impending economic slowdown.Recommendation: Consider dollar-cost averaging or hedging for banks and financial stocks.
Cyclical Stocks (Industrials, Capital Goods): These are vulnerable to signs of slowing employment and weakening demand.Recommendation: Reduce holdings in stocks with uncertain earnings.
Credit (Corporate Bonds, IG): Falling interest rates are positive for narrowing credit spreads.Recommendation: Prefer short-term investments (approach high-yield cautiously).Risk Management: It is recommended to reduce positions or hedge around events (Fed meetings, September CPI/PCE).

6) Market Reactions by Macro Scenario Summary

Scenario A (Fed 25bp Cut): Further declines in bond yields will be limited; stocks (especially growth stocks) will continue to strengthen.
Scenario B (Fed 50bp Cut): Risk-on sentiment will expand in the short term, with strong rallies expected in credit and stocks. However, a sharp reversal could occur if inflation fears resurface later.
Scenario C (Fed Holds Rates or Minor Cut): Stock market volatility will increase due to economic slowdown concerns, favoring defensive sectors.

7) Checklist — Data and Schedule Investors Must Check Immediately

Priority 1: Weekly jobless claims (short-term indicator of employment).Priority 2: Next ADP and non-farm payroll figures (leading indicators/consensus shifts).Priority 3: Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation indicator) and CPI (indicator of price pressures).Priority 4: Statements from Fed officials (changes in wording and conditions for rate cuts).Priority 5: Company earnings guidance (especially comments related to labor costs and demand).Fine-tune your positions based on this calendar.

8) Short-Term Positioning Suggestions (Practical Tips)

Prepare for Volatility: Recommend downside protection using options (put/call spreads).
Diversification: Reallocate between technology, credit, and cash as appropriate.
Risk Management: Prepare for valuation re-pricing risks (especially for financials) due to the sharp fall in interest rates.
Be Cautious with Leverage: Leverage around the September decision carries a risk of sharp reversals.

9) Short- and Long-Term Risks and Warning Signs

Risk 1: Fed’s patience wearing thin due to persistent core services inflation and wage growth.Risk 2: Recession fears will be amplified if further downward revisions to employment figures materialize.Risk 3: Continued conservatism in corporate hiring due to political and trade risks (tariffs, reduced public spending).Warning Signs: Sustained rise in weekly claims, reversal upwards in core PCE, and downward revisions in corporate guidance occurring simultaneously.

10) Conclusion — The Investor’s Perspective Now

The August ‘jobs shock’ has all but cemented bets on a September Fed rate cut.However, the true impact of this release lies in the possibility of future statistical revisions and structural changes in the labor market.While a stock rally (especially for growth stocks) is likely in the short term due to rate cut expectations, the market direction could be reset in the medium term depending on inflation and wage trends.Therefore, rapid rebalancing and risk management based on data are key, rather than aggressive positioning.(SEO Keywords Repetition: Stock Market, Rate Cut, Federal Reserve, US Employment, Inflation)

August non-farm payrolls: +22,000, unemployment rate: 4.3%, wages: +0.3% (m/m).Market reaction: Treasury yields fall → 9월 rate cut (25bp probability spikes), some discuss 50bp possibility.Key Risk: Further downward revisions to future employment data and structural labor market slowdown.Investment Strategy: Favor tech stocks and credit; approach financials and cyclical stocks cautiously.Checkpoints: Prioritize monitoring weekly jobless claims, ADP, PCE/CPI, and Fed statements.

Employment Report Analysis: What is the Fed’s Choice?Rate Cut Outlook and Stock Market Strategy Latest Update

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [속보] 美 8월 고용보고서 ‘쇼크’, 연준 9월 빅컷? 강세장 계속되나 I 홍키자의 매일뉴욕