AI Downturn, Tech Pivot, Visa Crackdown – Market Shockwaves

● AI’s Downturn – Rate Cuts Spark Rotation – Trump’s Big Tech Pivot – SP Influx – Buy-Sell Rules

Sputtering Leaders, Common Threads of Emerging Stocks – How to Navigate the US Stock Market in the Second Half and Must-Watch Stocks

Key takeaways from this article:

Analysis of the ‘practical impact of OpenAI’s cash flow on AI infrastructure rotation’ that other YouTube channels/news outlets often overlook.
Structural impact of Trump’s White House dinner and policy signals on Big Tech valuations (potential shift from short-term headwinds to policy protection).
Sector rotation timing and specific buy/dollar-cost averaging strategies based on interest rate cut scenarios (reflected in Sept-Dec).
Practical meaning of fund flows generated by S&P inclusions/exclusions (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase).
Priority checklist for the second half (macro, earnings, policy) and clear criteria for ‘buying, selling, and dollar-cost averaging’.

1) Current Market Summary (Timeline: Now ~ Year-End)

While the index is in a sideways consolidation, individual stock performance is driving the market.Funds that were concentrated in AI and semiconductors until the first half/early summer have recently weakened.That money is rotating into interest rate and dollar-sensitive sectors like construction, biotech, commodities, and gold.A redistribution of liquidity is highly likely, driven by the Fed and market expectations for interest rate cuts (September to December).

2) Crucial Points Often Unmentioned by Other Media

OpenAI’s long-term cash flow deficit outlook acts as a ‘short-term catalyst for AI infrastructure correction.’However, a deficit at a platform like OpenAI doesn’t itself collapse AI demand.In other words, short-term headwinds (bubble skepticism) are merely causes for adjustment, while long-term demand (data centers, cloud, software) remains intact.Trump’s White House dinner and subsequent policy direction can be interpreted as signals for deregulation and protection for Big Tech.These signals can trigger ‘Big Tech re-rating’ (a period where positive factors are re-reflected) during a correction phase.S&P 500 inclusion is not just a performance event but a structural factor that anchors ETF and passive fund inflows long-term.

3) Key Macro Checkpoints (Chronological)

Now (Short-term): If employment shocks (low new job growth) spread, the timing of interest rate cuts will accelerate.September-October (Medium-term): The Fed’s interest rate cut signals coincide with the earnings season (FAANG, semiconductors, energy, etc.).November-December (Year-end): Increased stock volatility due to rebalancing and year-end liquidity changes.Policy Variables: Construction, commodities, and financials will react if the Trump administration’s specific announcements on tariffs, regulations, and housing emergency measures materialize.

4) Strategic Response – Sector-Specific & Trading Timing

A. Defensive Positioning (Maintain Cash Position + Dollar-Cost Averaging)Short-term correction phases (August-September) are opportunities for dollar-cost averaging.If you lack cash, adopt a ‘hold’ strategy, ignoring short-term headwinds.

B. Aggressive Rebalancing (Liquidity Redistribution Points)As interest rate cut expectations materialize, some funds will move into construction, biotech, commodities, and gold mining.For AI infrastructure and semiconductors, consider ‘defensive buying on dips’ focusing on quality stocks during the correction phase.

C. Risk Management (Stop-Loss, Trailing Stops)Set stop-loss rules in advance for overheated themes and abnormal valuations.Example: Re-evaluate at a 15-25% loss from the entry price, and buy in 3-5 installments.

5) Stocks to Watch in the Second Half (Common Traits and Entry Criteria)

Common Traits: Companies that combine policy (Trump, Fed) with earnings and order wins (cloud/AI projects) will be advantageous.Entry Criteria: 1) upward revision of earnings guidance or disclosure of large-scale orders.2) Easing of regulatory risks (e.g., resolution of antitrust lawsuits).3) Potential for S&P/ETF inclusion or already included stocks.

Recommended List (Caution: For reference only, not investment advice) — Includes stock (ticker), core rationale, and conservative entry signals:

NVIDIA (NVDA)Rationale: Structural leader in AI semiconductor demand.Entry Signal: Dollar-cost averaging after correction if valuation normalizes and earnings guidance is maintained.
Broadcom (AVGO)Rationale: Beneficiary of orders from OpenAI and large cloud providers, stable infrastructure demand.Entry Signal: Confirm trend immediately after earnings and order announcements.
Alphabet (GOOGL)Rationale: Resolution of antitrust concerns, investment capabilities in search, cloud, and AI.Entry Signal: Confirm sustained momentum during a phase of easing lawsuit risks.
Apple (AAPL)Rationale: Potential for policy protection, new product momentum.Entry Signal: New product surprises and recovery in service revenue.
Microsoft (MSFT)Rationale: Position in cloud/AI partnerships, defense capabilities in enterprise demand.Entry Signal: Confirm cloud growth rates and enterprise earnings.
Meta (META)Rationale: Improved political relations, advertising, adjusted metaverse investments.Entry Signal: Improvement in advertising revenue, easing price sensitivity.
Palantir (PLTR)Rationale: AI/cloud solutions, government contracts.Entry Signal: When fixed contracts and government orders expand.
Robinhood (HOOD) / Coinbase (COIN)Rationale: S&P inclusion, financial platforms for crypto themes.Entry Signal: Resolution of regulatory risks, improvement in user metrics.
Broadly Housing/Construction Stocks (DHI, LEN, PHM)Rationale: Beneficiary of Trump’s housing policies and potential emergency measures.Entry Signal: Immediately after signs of mortgage/loan rate reductions and policy announcements.
Gold/Commodity Related (GOLD miners, LIT, URA)Rationale: Weak dollar, interest rate cut expectations, inflation hedge demand.Entry Signal: When dollar indicators weaken and real rates decline.
Biotech/Health (Specific stocks like ILMN, MRNA require confirmation of earnings/clinical momentum)Rationale: Sectors highly sensitive to interest rates, potential beneficiaries of rate cuts.Entry Signal: Confirmation of clinical success/drug pricing policies and earnings turnarounds.

(Consider the 15 stocks as a balanced selection across sectors from the representative groups identified above. Always verify individual ticker risks.)

6) Top 5 ETFs to Watch in the Second Half (Diversification, Sector Approach)

GLD or GDX (Gold/Gold Miners)SOXX (Semiconductor ETF)LIT (Lithium/Electric Vehicle Batteries)URA (Uranium ETF)XLF (Financials/Banks)

Each ETF offers easy and low-cost sector/thematic exposure, so consider them when formulating your positioning strategy.

7) Checklist — 7 Things to Check Before Buying

1) The company’s quarterly guidance and confirmation of orders/contracts.2) Valuation normalization (PER/EV/revenue growth relative to earnings).3) Direction of policy risks (tariffs, regulations, court rulings).4) Liquidity (institutional demand driven by potential S&P/ETF inclusion).5) Macro events (employment, CPI, Fed meeting schedules).6) Sector rotation signals (interest rates, dollar, commodity prices).7) Whether stop-loss and dollar-cost averaging rules are set.

8) Practical Trading Rules (Specific Guidelines)

Dollar-Cost Averaging: 30% of the target investment amount in 3-4 installments.Stop-Loss Rule: Re-evaluate at a 15-25% decline from the initial entry price.Position Rebalancing: Rebalance quarterly (or after major macro events).Cash Allocation: Maintaining 10-25% cash is recommended during periods of expected increased volatility.Momentum Confirmation: After earnings season/order announcements, confirm the trend for 2-4 weeks before additional purchases.

9) Recommended Positioning by Scenario (Brief)

Base Case: Interest rate cuts (Sept-Dec) materialize → Increase weighting in construction, biotech, and commodities by 10-20%.Optimistic Case: Year-end rally, reflation → Reconcentrate in tech, semiconductors, AI, and trim some dividend growth stocks.Pessimistic Case: Simultaneous deterioration in employment and inflation → Increase cash allocation and expand defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare).

10) Practical Tips — Details Traders Often Miss

The wording in corporate ‘cloud/AI supply contracts’ (‘multi-year’, ‘non-cancellable’) is a signal of mid-to-long-term demand confirmation when disclosed.Reducing positions just before policy meetings (White House, Treasury announcements) helps avoid unnecessary volatility.Check the S&P inclusion announcement dates and rebalancing schedules (March, June, September, December) in advance to predict ETF flows.

While the index is consolidating, individual stock performance is driving the market with strong rotation.OpenAI’s cash flow report is a short-term catalyst for AI infrastructure adjustment but does not negate long-term demand.Signals from the Trump administration favoring businesses increase the potential for Big Tech protection and re-rating.Expectations for interest rate cuts (Sept-Dec) can trigger fund flows into construction, biotech, commodities, and gold.The strategy involves dollar-cost averaging, maintaining cash reserves, clearly defined entry signals for each sector, and utilizing structural events like S&P inclusion.

In the US stock market, ‘temporary adjustments in AI/semiconductors’ and ‘sector rotation due to interest rate and policy changes’ are key.OpenAI’s deficit outlook is a short-term headwind, but long-term demand is likely to remain intact.Trump’s policy signals could act as protection for Big Tech, allowing corrections to be interpreted as ‘opportunities for long-term buying’.Maintaining cash reserves, dollar-cost averaging, and focusing on earnings/policy checklists are recommended for positioning in the second half.

(Note: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. The ultimate responsibility for investment decisions rests with the investor.)

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– 힘 빠지는 주도주들, 새롭게 떠오르는 주식들의 공통점

● Tesla’s Market Share Plummets, Broadcom’s Target Raised, Robinhood AppLovin Join SP 500, US Visa Crackdown Intensifies US Market, Rates, Semiconductors, AI Week Ahead

Tesla’s Market Share Hits Lowest Point, Broadcom’s Price Target Raised, Robinhood & AppLovin to Join S&P 500, US Visa Crackdown Intensifies — Key Insights on US Stocks, Interest Rates, Semiconductors, and AI for This Week

This article covers this week’s (as of September 8th) key events and the impact of CPI/PPI on Federal Reserve decisions, the practical implications of Robinhood and AppLovin’s S&P 500 inclusion on stock prices, the structural significance of Tesla’s declining market share in the US, the industrial ripple effects of Broadcom’s OpenAI deal (including the logic of NVIDIA replacement), and the immediate practical risks and response strategies for Korean companies facing intensified US visa enforcement.

Here are 3 core points that other YouTube channels and news outlets often overlook:

How to time practical buy/sell decisions by identifying the gap between ‘short-term inflows (passive funds)’ and ‘long-term performance’ following S&P 500 inclusion.
How Broadcom’s contract for OpenAI’s custom chips could simultaneously alter the semiconductor supply chain, profitability, and geopolitical risks.
How US visa crackdowns are not merely labor management issues but ‘policy risks’ that will necessitate changes in Korean companies’ on-site operations, contract structures, and supply chain diversification strategies.

Below is a detailed analysis organized chronologically (this week’s schedule → individual stock/sector analysis → policy risks).

1) This Week’s (9/8 – 9/17) Market Schedule and Macroeconomic Outlook

The key event for the second week of September is the release of August CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index). These figures are highly likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17th (markets are anticipating a 25bp cut). With signals of a slowdown in non-farm payrolls already observed, if CPI and PPI confirm ‘stable disinflation,’ the timing of an interest rate cut could be brought forward. Conversely, if inflation remains robust, market expectations for an interest rate cut could rapidly recede, leading to a sharp decline in US stocks (especially growth stocks and high-valuation sectors).

Investment Point: CPI/PPI as a ‘Turning Point’ — depending on the outcome, sensitivity to interest rates, the dollar, bond yields, and the Nasdaq (growth stocks) will change significantly.

SEO Keywords: US Stocks, Interest Rates

2) Robinhood (Joining S&P 500) — Why is Wall Street Already Paying Attention?

S&P 500 inclusion (official inclusion date scheduled for September 22nd) will generate mandatory buying demand from passive funds. While passive inflows can create short-term rallies, the long-term stock trajectory depends on the diversification of its payment, product, and revenue streams.

Robinhood’s Strengths: Strong customer lock-in with a young demographic (reported to be around 31 million users) driven by its mobile-first platform.

Robinhood’s Risks (Less Emphasized in News):

Regulatory risks associated with expanding virtual asset and tokenization services, and liquidity framing (difficulty in price discovery for tokenized derivatives).
Fragility of its revenue structure, stemming from its past “commission-free” competition (necessity for effective alternative revenue models).

Practical Insight (Differentiator): While a ‘technical rally’ might occur before its S&P 500 inclusion, for Robinhood to genuinely generate long-term alpha, managing regulatory and capital costs effectively through pivots into tokenization, lending, and cards will be crucial.

SEO Keywords: US Stocks

3) AppLovin — Winner in AI Advertising, or Valuation Trap?

AppLovin has achieved high growth by increasing advertising matching efficiency through its AI recommendation engine (e.g., Exon 2.0). Wall Street price targets have been raised (by Morgan Stanley, Citi, etc.), and additional inflows are expected due to inclusion anticipation.

Key Risks (Less Covered in General Reporting):

Sensitivity to the advertising economy: Advertising spending is typically the first to be cut during economic slowdowns.
Significant downside risk if growth rates fall below expectations in an already “overvalued” state (future earnings already priced in).

Practical Insight: Ad tech offers ‘efficiency advantages’ which can lead to faster profitability improvements. However, advertisers’ contract switching costs and privacy/tracking regulations (like ATT) are significant variables for profitability.

SEO Keywords: Artificial Intelligence

4) Tesla — Lowest US Market Share in 8 Years, Structural Implications

Situation Summary: Tesla’s market share in the US electric vehicle (EV) market has fallen to its lowest point in 8 years (estimated reduction from a past level of 80% to a 35-40% share).

Surface-Level Causes: Intensified competition (traditional OEMs expanding their EV lineups), lack of new models, and gaps in its product lineup across price segments.

However, the Underlying Point Often Missed by News:

Tesla’s strategic shift (focusing R&D on robots/humanoids) could lead to a weakening of its core revenue driver, automotive momentum, in the short term.
The decline in US market share could be a leading indicator for global market share, potentially leading to a weakening of its supply chain and brand premium.

Practical Insight (Investment Judgment): Tesla’s stock price moves on two axes: expectations for technology/robotics and EV performance. Therefore, it carries significant risk to sustain its valuation solely on robotics expectations without a recovery in automotive sales.

SEO Keywords: Tesla

5) Broadcom × OpenAI Deal — Limitations of the ‘NVIDIA Replacement’ Narrative and Practical Significance

News Summary: Broadcom surged on news of developing custom chips for OpenAI, with subsequent price target raises.

Surface-Level Interpretation: The narrative of NVIDIA replacement is gaining traction, seemingly shifting the focus of the semiconductor sector.

However, the Crucial Point Often Missed:

Custom chips (Application-Specific Accelerators) have different trade-offs in terms of performance, power consumption, and compatibility compared to GPUs.
‘Single customer dependency’ with large clients like OpenAI, while potentially leading to large contract values, simultaneously amplifies negotiation power, revenue volatility, and supply chain risks (such as export controls).
NVIDIA’s ecosystem (software stack and proven infrastructure) remains strong, making switching costs substantial.

Practical Insight: Broadcom has the potential for high growth scenarios through ‘large customer customization.’ However, when investing, a precise comparison with NVIDIA regarding technology and ecosystem is necessary.

SEO Keywords: Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence

6) Intensified US Visa Enforcement — Operational Risks and Practical Responses for Korean Companies

Situation Summary: Large-scale arrests and crackdowns have occurred at construction sites like Hyundai and LG facilities in Georgia due to visa violations (performing work under visa waivers or B1 visas).

Key Points Less Emphasized in General Reporting:

This crackdown is not an isolated incident but a federal-level warning signal against ‘customary visa usage’ (labor substitution through short-term assignments).
Policy Objectives: Protecting the labor market, national security frameworks, and demonstrating federal ‘enforcement will.’

Practical Risks:

Business models reliant on dispatching short-term engineers and facility personnel could be disrupted.
Legal and operational risks for on-site contracts (including subcontractors) are increasing, requiring adjustments to insurance, guarantees, and contracts.

Recommended Responses (Practical Checklist):

Review of Dispatcher Status and Scope of Work: Redefine permissible and impermissible work under B1/VWP with legal counsel.
Analysis of Legal and Cost Feasibility: Evaluate hiring local personnel or utilizing workers from third countries.
Establish Communication and Legal Response Protocols: Secure local legal networks and consular support channels for emergencies.
Revise Contractual Clauses: Re-evaluate clauses related to personnel responsibility and penalties (e.g., delays and cost burdens due to crackdowns).

Practical Insight: These crackdowns may signal the beginning of a ‘policy shift’ rather than a one-off event. Therefore, Korean headquarters should immediately review global on-site operational manuals and contract templates.

SEO Keywords: US Stocks (policy impacts stock sentiment), Interest Rates (for broad global risk scenario assessment)

7) Practical Trading & Risk Management Summary (Recommended Actions by Investor Type)

Short-Term Traders: Recommended to reduce positions before the CPI/PPI announcement (to prepare for increased volatility).
Mid-Term Investors (6-12 months): For S&P 500 inclusion stocks, consider phased buying and valuation checks, taking into account the inflow/outflow cycles before and after inclusion.
Long-Term Investors Focused on Large Caps: Break down the ‘core competitiveness’ (product pipeline, contract exclusivity, revenue structure) of Tesla, Broadcom, Robinhood, and AppLovin to adjust investment allocations.
Corporate Risk Managers (Korean Companies): Immediately review US on-site contract structures and dispatched personnel operational processes, and develop legal, insurance, and alternative personnel strategies.

Additional Differentiated Insights:

‘S&P 500 Inclusion’ is a buy signal, but be wary of the counter-risk of ‘pre-inclusion overheating’ and ‘post-inclusion underperformance.’
The Broadcom-OpenAI story signifies the advent of the ‘era of custom chips,’ but NVIDIA’s dominance in terms of ecosystem and software dependency will not collapse in the short term.
Visa crackdowns immediately increase operational costs, delivery times, and legal risks for global manufacturing and construction sites.

SummaryThis week’s key focus is CPI/PPI, which will determine the Fed’s September 17th interest rate decision and market direction. Robinhood and AppLovin’s S&P 500 inclusion will create short-term passive inflows, but long-term profitability and regulatory risks need verification. Tesla’s declining US market share signifies not just intensified competition but also that the company’s strategic shift (e.g., to robotics) could weaken automotive momentum. Broadcom’s custom chip deal with OpenAI signals the ‘era of custom accelerators,’ but competition with NVIDIA’s ecosystem and supply chain risks must be considered. The intensified US visa crackdown poses immediate practical risks to Korean companies’ on-site operations and contract structures, necessitating legal and operational preparedness.

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– 테슬라 8년만에 미국 최저 점유율ㅣ브로드컴 목표가 줄줄이 인상ㅣ미국에서 강화되는 비자 단속ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕