Market Meltdown, AI Mania, Trump’s Crypto Shock, Powell’s Pivot, Treasury Tussle

● Market Shock-Proof AI, Liquidity, Rates, and Small-Cap Alpha

‘Super Individual Investor’ Real-World Strategies for Detecting Crises and Making Investment Decisions — Capturing Opportunities in Liquidity-Driven Markets, Interest Rate Shocks, and AI Trends

The core content covered in this article includes:7 crisis detection indicators and early warning signals that can be applied in real practice.How to leverage the ‘information advantage of small stocks (small-cap value)’ which is rarely discussed elsewhere.Specific trading rules for when sovereign bond rate spikes occur in a liquidity-driven market.A practical checklist for valuation using ‘future earnings, industry trends, and structural changes’ instead of PER.Practical positioning methods for the AI trend’s impact on defense, manufacturing, and finance.Portfolio design (core, satellite, cash) and checkpoints for each scenario.All sentences are crafted considering SEO keywords (global economy, interest rates, liquidity, investment strategy, AI trend).

1) Current Situation: Why We Can’t Be Complacent Despite a Liquidity-Driven Market

The global economy is still experiencing a liquidity-driven market, putting upward pressure on overall stock prices.However, conflicting US employment and inflation data are increasing the Fed’s policy uncertainty.Europe faces risks in its financial and sovereign debt markets due to amplified fiscal fragility from the pandemic, energy crisis, and fiscal spending.This combination creates a volatility pattern of ‘liquidity-driven market + intermittent interest rate (sovereign bond) spikes.’Conclusion: Even in a liquidity-led rally, significant corrections can occur whenever sovereign bond yields surge.

2) The Most Important Point Rarely Discussed Elsewhere

Small-cap value stocks offer easier access to ‘unpriced ideas’ due to information asymmetry.Relying solely on past PER is a trap. “Future earnings and industry trend changes” are key.Changes in bank lending attitudes (credit supply) are the real early warning signals of a crisis.National fiscal health (e.g., signs of fiscal distress in major European countries) is not just a political issue but can be the starting point of a chain reaction shock in sovereign bonds, banks, and exchange rates.The AI trend is reshaping the profit structures of traditional industries, but is likely to be accompanied by valuation bubbles.

3) Crisis Detection Checklist (7 Early Warning Indicators)

1) Inverted yield curve (short-term vs. long-term) and sharp rise in long-term rates.2) Bank lending attitude index (indicating credit crunch).3) Widening sovereign bond spreads (peripheral Eurozone vs. Germany, US Treasury spreads).4) Discrepancy between employment data and CPI (coexistence of worsening employment and inflation).5) Decline in trading volume and shift to foreign selling in leading sectors (sign of broad market exit).6) Exchange rate and capital outflow signals (emerging market capital flight).7) Policy pronouncements (e.g., Finance Minister or central banker mentioning ‘bailouts’) — if these are made, the risk is likely already significantly priced in.

4) Specific Investment Strategies After Crisis Detection (By Scenario)

Scenario A — Short-Term Sovereign Bond Spike (Interest Rate Shock, but Not a Real Economy Recession)Key: Immediately increase cash holdings (securing ‘ammunition’ for further purchases).Approach: Core positions with defensive ETFs (large-cap quality dividend/bond ETFs), satellites for opportunity seizing with cash + a few high-conviction stocks.Purchase Rule: Dollar-cost averaging (systematic investment/DCA) when rates stabilize and credit spreads narrow.

Scenario B — Fiscal/Financial Crisis (Potential Bailouts, Risk of Credit Collapse)Key: Prioritize risk reduction and increase cash and short-term sovereign bond holdings.Approach: Liquidate leveraged or derivative positions, increase exposure to defensive sectors (essentials, utilities).Opportunity: In moments of extreme fear, meticulously select and dollar-cost average into structural value stocks (financially sound small/mid-caps).

Scenario C — Post-Crisis Recovery (Liquidity Re-entry)Key: Long-term systematic investment in ETFs and holding growth sectors (especially AI infrastructure).Approach: Maintain core positions (ETFs), select high-growth companies with re-rating potential for satellite positions.

5) Sector & Theme Strategy — Practical Points

Defense IndustryHigh potential for benefits from increased liquidity and prolonged geopolitical tensions.Caution: Potential for sharp declines if signs of war ending emerge (timing management is crucial).

AI Trend (Infrastructure, Cloud, Semiconductor Design Tools, Enterprise Software)Long-term structural growth story.However, beware of the ‘momentum trap’ during valuation bubble phases.Investment Method: Secure core positions with AI-related ETFs, select individual stocks with evidence of profitability and cloud transition.

Manufacturing, Automation, RoboticsRequires simultaneous analysis of China’s cost advantage and global supply chain reorganization.AI’s maximization of manufacturing efficiency will lead to intensified winner-take-all structures.

Energy & CommoditiesInflation hedge and real revenue source during energy crises and supply constraints.However, political and sanction risks must be considered.

Opportunities in Shrinking Domestic Markets (Japan, Europe)In shrinking markets, find companies achieving performance through ‘management consolidation (market share expansion), share buybacks, and cost structure improvements.’The ‘management agility’ in small markets is the starting point for investment returns.

6) Valuation & Stock Selection Checklist — PER is Just the Beginning, Not the End

Do not rely solely on past PER; cross-verify the following three elements:1) Future Earnings Growth Projections (empirical evidence like orders, contracts, backlog).2) Structural Changes in Industry Trends (intensifying competition, technological shifts, policy impacts).3) Financial Soundness (operating cash flow, interest coverage ratio, bank-related risks).Small-cap stocks may have ‘unpriced information’ due to fewer participants.Therefore, verify ‘counter-intuitive’ ideas through site visits, industry interviews, and on-the-ground data.

7) Behavioral Psychology and Trading Rules — Practicing ‘Counter-Intuitive’ Investing

Following the crowd leads to falling into the momentum trap.Conversely, approaching with a minority opinion backed by meticulous reasoning offers potential for excess returns.Example Trading Rules:Buy at the knees, sell at the shoulders (avoid estimating extreme peaks).Set loss limits (clearly define stop-loss rules before trading).Apply a 2-5% rule for position sizing within the total portfolio (individual risk management).Systematize ‘opportunity seizing’ in volatile periods through a combination of systematic ETF investment and cash ammunition.

8) Practical Implications of the AI Trend on Portfolios

AI reshapes industry profitability by improving productivity and cost structures.Short-term: AI-related themes are prone to severe overheating and corrections, so a mix of ETFs and selected stocks is recommended.Medium-term: Hold only companies where AI leads to actual sales and margin improvements.Long-term: Focus on data and computing infrastructure, semiconductor design tools, and security/automation software providers.Risk: Be wary of AI companies’ ‘mirages (high PERs)’; if proof of actual profit conversion is lacking, stock prices may fall even during recovery.

9) Portfolio Proposal (Practical Template)

Core (50-60%): Global large-cap ETFs + sovereign bond ETFs (shortened duration).Satellite (25-30%): Promising stocks in AI infrastructure, defense, energy, and domestic structural improvement (dollar-cost averaging).Cash/Liquidity (10-20%): Ammunition for opportunistic buying in short-term phases.Options/Hedging (Optional): Small holdings of put options or limited use of inverse ETFs during periods of increased volatility.Rebalancing Rule: Adjustments every 6 months or based on events (interest rate shocks, policy shifts, etc.).

10) Checkpoints — When to Decide on ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’

Buy Signals:When sovereign bond spikes subside and credit spreads narrow.When evidence of a company’s future earnings emerges (orders, contracts, customer acquisition).Sell Signals:When signals of sustained and sharp increases in policy rate expectations appear.When a structural deterioration in a company’s operating cash flow is confirmed.Estimating peaks is risky, so set ‘target return zones’ and manage risk through partial sales.

< Summary >The global economy is in a liquidity-driven market, but intermittent shocks are expected due to interest rate and fiscal risks.Key points rarely discussed elsewhere: Small-cap value offers opportunities due to information advantage, and valuation should be based on future earnings, industry trends, and financials, not just PER.Receive early warnings through 7 crisis detection indicators, and establish clear trading rules based on scenarios (bond spike, fiscal crisis, recovery).The AI trend presents long-term structural opportunities but carries significant short-term valuation traps, recommending an ETF + selective stock strategy.Portfolios should consist of core (ETFs) + satellite (thematic stocks) + cash (opportunity funds), and volatility should be turned into opportunity through dollar-cost averaging and systematic investment.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [풀버전] 위기를 감지하고 투자를 결정하는 방법, 국제 정세를 읽고 기회를 포착하는 ‘슈퍼개미’의 투자법 | 클로즈업 – ‘나의 투자술’ 북리뷰

● US Treasury Holdings Shift UK-UAE Surge, China Dips, AI Trade Ties Unfold

US Treasury Holdings Shift: UK & UAE Surge, China Dips, and the Hidden Strategy of “Targeting” Long-Term Rates

Here’s a preview of the key takeaways from this article:

We’ve compiled the recent chronological changes (since January) in US Treasury holdings and the “numerical shifts” by country.
We delve into the detailed analysis of major players like Japan, the UK, China, the UAE, and Luxembourg.
We discuss the practical market impact of the clash between foreign policy and financial policy (Treasury’s emphasis on long-term rate stability vs. the Fed’s stance).
We explore a crucial point often overlooked by other news outlets: why allied nations’ Treasury purchases are not just simple investments but “policy tools,” and the connection to AI semiconductor deals like UAE-Nvidia.

1) Chronological (Since January) US Treasury Holdings Changes by Country – Numbers and Their Meaning

JapanAs the largest holder, Japan is steadily increasing its US Treasury holdings. Due to stable foreign reserves and a preference for dollar-denominated assets, their purchases of long-term Treasuries continue to expand. The primary motivations are rate stability and maintaining the yen-dollar exchange rate.

United KingdomA significant surge in purchases has been observed since January of this year. The UK has recently surpassed China to become the second-largest holder, suggesting this is more than just a simple portfolio rebalancing, and is likely a product of policy and diplomatic alignment. This is a rare instance where high-level visits from Trump administration officials, ceremonial protocol, and strengthened political ties have translated into actual purchases.

ChinaHoldings have been reduced, particularly since January. The background for this includes US-China geopolitical tensions, expectations of a Trump presidency, and China’s own foreign exchange portfolio diversification (including increased gold purchases). A simultaneous process of simple selling and transitioning to alternative assets (gold, domestic assets, currency diversification) is underway.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)A pattern of rapid increase in holdings, starting from January, is evident following the strengthening of ties with Trump. Large-scale inflows of Middle Eastern capital into US Treasuries suggest the possibility of political and economic exchange (quid pro quo). This is particularly noteworthy in conjunction with promises to ease restrictions on AI semiconductor (Nvidia) exports, indicating a complex transaction involving investment, security, and trade.

LuxembourgWhile holdings have increased numerically, this should be interpreted as an increase by financial institutions and international funds rather than a national reserve. Luxembourg’s role as a global financial hub underpins demand for US Treasuries.

Changes in Maturity DistributionA pattern of increased T-bills (maturities under one year) has been observed, while medium- and long-term Treasuries (notes and bonds) have slightly decreased. This indicates a simultaneous demand for short-term liquidity and adjustments to long-term positions, which significantly impacts the yield curve (interest rate spreads).

2) Treasury’s “Long-Term Rate Stability” Remarks vs. the Fed’s Stance – Practical Implications of Policy Conflict

Recent remarks by high-ranking Treasury officials (summarized from articles and interviews) publicly emphasize the importance of long-term rate stability. This is unusual as the Treasury is publicly expressing interest in “long-term rates,” which are typically considered within the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy domain. The Fed, in its official capacity, has reaffirmed its dual mandate of “maximum employment and price stability,” denying any direct targeting of long-term rates. However, the core point is that, in practice, a structure is in place where the Treasury indirectly helps suppress long-term rates by increasing demand through friendly countries and institutions (a combination of diplomacy and finance). The market is interpreting this as an “attempt at de facto long-term rate suppression, even if not explicit rate targeting.”

Market Impact SummaryIncreased demand for long-term Treasuries (foreign purchases) → Downward pressure on long-term rates → Narrowing of the yield curve (spread between long and short rates) → Impact on bank profitability, financial stocks, and Treasury ETFs (e.g., TLT).Opposite scenario (cessation or reduction of purchases) → Surge in long-term rates → Potential sharp decline in cyclical assets (growth stocks, tech stocks).

3) Key Points Missed by Other Media – The “Real” Signals I’m Observing

Purchases of Treasuries by allied nations are not merely portfolio decisions. I emphasize that they represent “policy-driven demand creation” linked to diplomacy, trade, and security (e.g., AI semiconductor export negotiations). The surge in UAE purchases, in particular, suggests a “policy exchange” beyond simple investment. Interpreting the increase in Luxembourg’s holdings as “national reserves” would be a mistake. It’s crucial to differentiate this from financial institution and fund demand channeled through global financial hubs and private banking channels. Furthermore, the increase in T-bills (short-term) signifies growing liquidity demand, while the reduction in medium- and long-term holdings signifies position rebalancing, requiring a breakdown and interpretation of yield curve signals.

4) Connection to the AI Trend – What Do Nvidia and Eased Export Controls Mean?

According to the terms of the agreement with the UAE (summarized from media reports), it is highly probable that the US side will ease Nvidia export controls, allowing a specific annual volume of AI semiconductor exports, in exchange for large-scale investment from the UAE (in US assets and projects). This transaction is not just about semiconductor exports but a “trade-off between US technology/security export controls and capital flows.” Consequently:

Increased supply of AI semiconductors will accelerate global AI investment, positively impacting semiconductor company revenues and stock prices.
Simultaneously, if these funds flow into US Treasuries, they contribute to suppressing long-term rates.Therefore, the AI trend (increasing demand) and US Treasury supply and demand (demand creation) can be mutually reinforcing.

5) Investor Perspective: Checkpoints and Practical Strategies

Checkpoints

Monitor monthly net purchase flows of US Treasuries by foreign entities (countries, sovereign wealth funds/financial centers).
Pay attention to the yield curve (2y-10y spread) and changes in the proportion of short-term T-bills.
Read political and diplomatic news (visits, trade agreements) concerning specific countries like the UAE and the UK as if they were economic indicators.
Connect news regarding AI semiconductor supply (easing export controls, large-scale investments) with Treasury inflows.

Practical Strategies (Case-Based)

If foreign demand is maintained or expanded:

Consider a strategic increase in long-term bond holdings (e.g., ETF TLT).
This creates a favorable environment for growth and tech stocks (especially those related to AI semiconductors).

If foreign demand sharply declines:

Prepare portfolios to hedge against long-term rate risk (barricade: short-term bonds, cash, gold positions).
Consider volatility hedging (options, volatility ETFs) and sector rotation (moving to defensive stocks, rate-sensitive stocks).

Portfolio TipDiversification is essential, but “policy-driven foreign demand” represents a non-quantifiable risk. Therefore, include a political event calendar in your portfolio checklist. When investing in AI themes, monitoring semiconductor supply chains (changes in US export controls) can lead to performance differentiation.

6) Risk Scenarios and Observation Points for the Next 12 Months

Scenario A – Foreign (UK, UAE, etc.) Continued Purchases

Sustained suppression of long-term rates → Strong performance for growth stocks and AI sectors → Mixed performance for dollar and safe-haven assets.

Scenario B – Foreign Purchase Cessation or Reversal (Additional Chinese Selling)

Sharp rise in long-term rates → Steep decline in high-growth, rate-sensitive stocks → Potential for financial and real economy shock propagation.

Observation Points (Priority)

Monthly changes in US Treasury holdings by country (especially UK, UAE, China).
Fed’s public statements and the Treasury’s moves to link diplomacy and finance.
US administration decisions and corporate supply contracts related to AI semiconductor export controls.
Yield curve and responses in bank lending and the housing market (early signals if impacting the real economy).

< Summary >

Shifts in US Treasury holdings are not mere asset allocation but policy tools intertwined with diplomacy, trade, and security. The rapid purchases by the UK and UAE are linked to political alliances and AI semiconductor (Nvidia) deals, while China is pursuing portfolio diversification through reduced holdings and increased gold reserves. The Treasury’s emphasis on long-term rate stability heightens market uncertainty due to overlapping roles with the Fed, but an indirect rate suppression structure through purchases by friendly nations is observable. Investors must simultaneously monitor country-specific purchase trends, changes in maturity distribution, and policies/deals related to AI semiconductors, and prepare for scenario-based portfolio adjustments (continued purchases vs. cessation).

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [홍장원의 불앤베어] 트럼프 대통령이 미국채 세일즈를 열심히 하는 것 같습니다

● Trump’s Bitcoin Bomb Political Firestorm, Wall Street Flood, AI Frenzy

Trump’s Terrifying Hidden Plan for Bitcoin — Key Points at a Glance

Must-Read Now: How Trump-related political and legal risks can combine with cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin and Ethereum) to create an “unexpected explosive event,” signals from Wall Street, regulation, and on-chain data, and scenarios where AI can accelerate, monitor, and exploit this landscape.

Key Content Covered in This Article:

The interplay between Trump’s political strategies and cryptocurrency/stablecoin regulation (a political-financial linkage scenario rarely covered in the news).
Specific trigger variables to watch from year-end to early next year (on-chain indicators, legislative progress, major wallet movements).
The reality behind suspicious activities on Ethereum and the potential for Wall Street fund inflows.
AI trends: Impact on trading, monitoring, and sentiment manipulation, and defense strategies.
10 practical indicators and response routines for investors and businesses to check immediately.(SEO Keywords Reflected: Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Inflation, Interest Rates, Economic Outlook)

1) The Fusion of Politics and Cryptocurrency: Why Trump is Central to the BTC Narrative

The legal and political pressures surrounding Trump create financial and strategic tools in themselves. The core perspective here is the possibility of “digitalizing political capital.” The pathways through which the Trump camp could utilize cryptocurrencies (both legal and semi-legal) are as follows:

Digital Transformation of Campaign Funds & Donations: Increased use of cryptocurrency to evade traditional bank sanctions and tracking (instrument for regulatory evasion).
Tool for Enhancing Political Messaging & Image: Inducing supporter and fund inflows through pro-Bitcoin statements (short-term impact on price and demand).
Diplomatic & Economic Leverage: Testing as a means of sanctions evasion or alternative payment methods (collaboration signals with specific countries or groups can cause market shock).

What other reports miss here is that “political actions directly translate into demand and liquidity fluctuations.” When political events trigger significant on-chain liquidity shifts, the speed of regulation and exchanges (e.g., coin lock-ups, withdrawal restrictions) can disproportionately amplify prices.

2) Regulation and Legislation: The Reality and Repercussions of Stablecoin and Dollar-Based Bills (“Genius Act” Mentioned)

The recently discussed regulation of dollar-based stablecoins can be a catalyst for Wall Street fund reallocation. Key content (from a market impact perspective):

Upon Passage of Stablecoin Regulation: Regulatory clarity will encourage institutional fund inflows.
Wall Street is highly likely to launch a large volume of “legitimate” stablecoin and Ethereum-linked products after regulatory clarity.
Conversely, if regulation is excessive or bank linkage is mandated, there will be an outflow of funds to unregulated stablecoins and decentralized channels (risk-off).

Points that other media outlets often overlook:

Minor differences in regulatory wording will determine whether “dollar-pegged stablecoins” become investment targets for Wall Street or expand the shadow market of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The “market sentiment” and on-chain indicators immediately before and after the bill’s passage can foreshadow the timing of price explosions (or collapses).

3) Ethereum’s “Suspicious Activity” — What Does It Mean?

The “suspicious Ethereum activity” mentioned in the video can be interpreted through several specific on-chain signals. Important indicators and interpretations:

ETH Mobility of Large Wallets: Staking/unstaking patterns, transfers, and concentrated movements may signal preparations by institutions (or Wall Street services).
Strengthened Correlation Between Stablecoins and ETH: Increased stablecoin issuance + rising ETH price can be interpreted as preparations by Wall Street to use ETH as a “dollar-based derivative.”
Liquidity Transfer Between DEX and CEX: If liquidity flows into centralized exchanges, a large “buyback” (or sell-off) is possible.

Analytical points not well-reported by the media:

Temporary transaction cost (gas fee) fluctuations can act as a signal for large investors’ positioning.
If EIP-related variables (e.g., increased burn rate) and institutional demand occur simultaneously, “price leverage” can expand disproportionately.

4) Timeline: When to Watch What (Short-Term → Mid-Term → Long-Term)

Short-Term (This Quarter ~ Year-End):

Key Indicators to Watch: Exchange Reserves, Stablecoin Issuance Fluctuations, Major Wallet On-Chain Movements, Regulation Bill Voting Schedules.
Possible Scenario: Short-term liquidity spikes immediately before/after political events and bill votes → rapid price volatility.

Mid-Term (First Half of Next Year):

Key Indicators to Watch: Approval Status of Institutional ETFs/Derivatives, Fed Interest Rate & Inflation (CPI/PCE) Announcements, Reports on Wall Street Funds’ Cryptocurrency Positioning.
Possible Scenario: Regulatory clarity + institutional inflows → structural momentum formation (especially for ETH-related products).

Long-Term (1-3 Years):

Key Indicators to Watch: Cryptocurrency Adoption Rate in Global Payment Infrastructure, Steady Growth of On-Chain Data (Active Addresses, DeFi TVL), Market Share of AI-Based Trading.
Possible Scenario: Accelerated institutionalization of digital assets → resetting of correlation with traditional assets.

5) How AI Will Change Market Mechanisms: Opportunities and Risks

AI is already playing a crucial role in trading, monitoring, and policy prediction. Specific impacts:

Ultra-High-Frequency/Algorithmic Trading: LLM+RL-based trading can capture on-chain signals faster, amplifying traditional momentum.
Market Sentiment & Fake News Generation: If AI amplifies political messages (e.g., election news, legal developments), price volatility will increase.
Automated Regulatory Monitoring: AI can detect suspicious on-chain transactions (e.g., money laundering) → increased speed and precision of regulatory enforcement.

From a risk management perspective, it is essential to prepare:

Implement tools to identify AI-driven misinformation and market manipulation.
Develop contingency plans for “AI signal failure modes” when using automated trading and leverage.

6) 10 Practical Indicators for Investors and Businesses to Check Immediately

Exchange Reserves: Trend of decrease/increase.
Stablecoin Velocity: Changes in minting/burning speed.
Major Wallet Movements: 24-72 hour patterns of top whales.
ETH Staking/Unstaking Ratio: And lock-up release schedules.
DEX Liquidity Pools (TVL): Significant shifts.
Key Regulatory Bill Progress: Legislative schedules and meeting minutes for stablecoin and exchange regulations.
Fed Interest Rate & Inflation Announcements: Scenario analysis and fund flows.
Exchange Order Book Imbalance: And large hidden buy/sell orders (iceberg).
Social & News Data Sentiment Index: Rapid changes related to political events.
AI Monitoring Tool Alerts: (Abnormal trading patterns, multiple bot accounts, etc.).

Automating these indicators onto a dashboard for real-time monitoring allows for “proactive response” during rapid changes.

7) Risk Scenarios and Response Strategies — From Most to Least Terrifying

Worst Case (Systemic Shock):

Scenario: Political events (e.g., evidence of large-scale fund movements, sanctions evasion) → rapid regulatory tightening + temporary exchange suspension → liquidity collapse.
Response: Increase cash holdings, diversify exchange risk (emergency wallets, on-chain backups).

Moderate (Price/Liquidity Shock):

Scenario: Short-term overheating/sharp decline due to large-scale buying/selling by institutions and Wall Street.
Response: Stop-loss orders, option hedging (put options), phased entry/exit plans.

Minor (Information/Sentiment Driven Disturbance):

Scenario: Short-term volatility due to AI-driven misinformation.
Response: Cross-verify information, temporary suspension of automated trading rules.

8) 3 Insights Rarely Covered Elsewhere, Must Remember

Political Events Create “Demand for Cash”: The need to prepare for legal pressures and costs can lead to a surge in individuals and organizations attempting to cash out or hoard Bitcoin.
Regulatory “Clarity” Itself is a Catalyst for Investor Inflows: Ambiguity leads to exits, while clarity can drive large institutional inflows (both positive and negative outcomes are possible).
AI Changes Information Speed but Also Induces “Overreaction”: Faster detection → faster explosions, making defense even more critical.

9) Action Checklist — Practical Actions for Individual Investors and Companies

Individual Investors:

Core: Minimize leverage, set up on-chain indicator alerts, automate news sentiment alerts.
Specific Actions: Diversify exchange assets (hold in cold wallets), secure portfolio insurance (options).

Institutions/Companies:

Core: Fund flow plans for each regulatory risk scenario, implement AI risk diagnostic tools.
Specific Actions: Strengthen regulatory advisory teams, adopt on-chain audit and KYT solutions, revise internal policies (political donations, payment methods).

10) Conclusion: What Will the “Unimaginable Event” That’s About to Happen Look Like?

The most probable scenario involves simultaneous political events (Trump-related), regulatory/legislative changes, and strategic reallocations by Wall Street. In this process, AI will amplify information and trading speeds, causing short-term price explosions (up or down) and liquidity crunches concurrently.

Therefore, the key is “signal detection” and “risk management.” By integrating on-chain indicators, regulatory schedules, exchange reserves, and AI alerts into a real-time decision-making framework, opportunities can be seized or losses avoided when other investors are in panic.

The interplay between Trump-related political events and stablecoin regulation can significantly impact the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets. Whether Wall Street enters the institutional space will depend on the fine print of legislation. Throughout this process, on-chain indicators like major wallet movements, exchange reserves, and stablecoin issuance will serve as early warnings. AI, through its detection, trading, and misinformation amplification functions, will drastically increase volatility. Therefore, investors and businesses must prioritize establishing on-chain monitoring and AI risk management systems. In essence, by observing regulatory schedules and on-chain data in real-time, and focusing on leverage and liquidity management, one can mitigate the impact of this “unimaginable event” or turn it into an opportunity.

[Related Articles…]

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– 비트코인에 감춰둔 트럼프의 무시무시한 계획. 곧 상상 못할 일 터진다 | 백훈종 대표 2부

● FOMC Bombshell Powell’s ‘Preemptive’ Pivot Sparks Tech Rally, But Beware October’s Dip

FOMC Historical Remarks — October ‘Pullback’ Scenario and Practical Investment Checklist (Including Tesla, Nvidia, and Small-Cap Stocks)

Key takeaways from this article:The historical significance of Powell’s recent remarks and the ‘most important sentence’ for market interpretation.The probability of a pullback (correction) occurring in October and defense lines for each range.Practical insights not commonly discussed elsewhere — sector-specific strategies utilizing the ‘sequence’ of consumer spending slowdown.Specific buy/stop-loss levels for large-cap stocks like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), and individual response points for small-cap stocks like IONQ, CRWV, MP, INOD, FIG, and IREN.Real-time checkpoints and futures benchmarks (as of author’s analysis) usable with TradingView, MarketWatch, Robinhood, and TD.

1) FOMC (Powell’s Speech) — Core Message and Market Interpretation

The most decisive message from Powell’s speech was the mention of the possibility of ‘preemptive’ action.This implies that while the Fed currently assesses the economy and employment as ‘healthy,’ it is prepared to shift its policy stance in anticipation of future slowdowns.The market interpreted this message as a subtle buy signal, suggesting ‘a healthy economy + the Fed is ready to adjust proactively.’A point that other news outlets often miss here is that the ‘credibility effect of the remarks on the market (as a signal of economic health)’ is more significant than the Fed’s statement itself.In other words, what drives the continuation of stock market (US Stocks) gains is Powell’s ‘assessment of the economic situation’ rather than interest rates or actual FOMC policy changes.

2) Immediate Market Reaction — Technical and Fundamental Perspectives

Short-term reaction: Technology stocks (especially Nvidia) immediately saw strong demand inflow.The fact that maintaining the author’s SP futures benchmark levels (6,150 / 6,100) keeps the upward trend valid can be used as a practical trading checkpoint.Monitoring futures (/ES, /NQ) allows for faster detection of sharp intraday drops and surges.Tool recommendations: TradingView real-time charts, MarketWatch and Yahoo S&P500 Mini Futures (with delay), Robinhood’s simplified view, and checking /ES, /NQ on TD.Combining these tools can minimize information lag.

3) Macro Frame: Real Economy vs. Stock Market (Divergence) — A Perspective Others Rarely Discuss

The real economy (the perceived economy around us) and the economy within the stock market (based on indicators and corporate earnings) can diverge significantly.Key reason for divergence: GDP and indicators can appear to improve due to government policies, accounting methods, and classification, leading to responses different from actual household sentiment.An important tip that others rarely share: Investors should learn ‘how to interpret indicators.’Even with the same GDP growth, the impact on sectors varies completely depending on ‘which components have risen’ (e.g., consumption, investment, inventory).Therefore, don’t just look at the Fed’s interest rate stance; always check the components of consumption, corporate profits, and employment indicators.

4) Sector Strategy Using the ‘Sequence’ of Consumer Spending Slowdown (Practical Tip)

Consumer spending does not decline all at once.Remember that changes occur in sequence, starting with items that are easily cut back, progressing to those maintained until the very end.Early slowdown: Apparel, fashion, leisure (companies like Nike and Lululemon will falter first).Mid-stage slowdown: Dining out, premium consumption (McDonald’s, restaurants, etc.).Late-stage slowdown: ‘Essential spending’ like insurance and healthcare costs—if it reaches this point, the economic slowdown is severe.In other words, by observing the extent of a sector’s decline, you can reverse-engineer the ‘stage of consumer spending slowdown’ to quickly assess the severity of the economy.This is much more practical than simply hearing ‘consumer spending slowdown’ in the news.

5) Bubble Concerns and Realistic Interpretation

A bubble doesn’t necessarily burst just because it forms.Bubbles arise from excessive expectations, and if earnings catch up to expectations, the bubble deflates.Therefore, simply hearing ‘bubble’ warnings and liquidating all positions likely means missing opportunities.Practical strategy: Bubble signals → Reduce position size or hedge with options → Buy more when prices fall below key levels.This method is particularly effective for market-leading stocks like Tesla and Nvidia.

6) Key Stock Checkpoints (Including Author’s Video Levels)

Nvidia (NVDA) — Key points: 170, 180, 185 dollar levels.In the short term, support at 170 dollars is crucial.Breaking above 185 dollars can be interpreted as a short-term momentum-driven buy-in zone (acceleration).Tesla (TSLA) — Key points: 415-418 dollars (dollar-cost averaging zone), retesting 400 dollars is a zone to consider for further dollar-cost averaging.As long as the current market doesn’t collapse, a limited pullback followed by a rebound is highly probable.CRWV — Strong resistance at 125 dollars.If 125 is broken, there’s potential for a move up to 140 dollars.NEBIUS (NBIS) — Despite events like rights offerings, additional upside is possible if the 100 dollar (or 100-unit) mark is broken.MP (MP Materials) — Rare earth and commodity-related stock.Consider the tendency for interest rates and gold to move together with commodities.INOD — Currently in an uptrend; breaking above 85 dollars opens up to 85, and on a pullback, consider buying in bulk around 65-66 dollars.FIG (Figma-like) — Moving above 56 dollars is the mission.Potential target of 65 dollars after breaking 56.IREN (Iren-like) — Resistance at 38 dollars.Breaking 38 could lead to a move towards 50 dollars.Caution: The above figures are practical levels presented in the author’s video. Always set your own dollar-cost averaging and stop-loss criteria based on your trading style and risk tolerance.

7) Buy and Risk Management Strategies (Specific Tactics)

Dollar-cost averaging: The easiest way to reduce fear of buying at highs.Chasing gains vs. Waiting for pullbacks: The current market has been in a phase where a ‘buy and chase’ strategy was effective.However, pullbacks (potential October corrections) can occur at any time, so maintain small position sizes.Setting stop-loss criteria: Clearly define stop-loss/exit points based on the key levels for each stock (listed above).Using options: When uncertainty is high, hedge partially with call spreads or puts.Leverage risk warning: Especially with futures, options, and leveraged ETFs, losses can be significant during sharp downturns, so manage position sizes strictly.

8) Practical Tools and Checklists

Real-time charts: TradingView (direct symbol viewing), TD for /ES, /NQ (futures), MarketWatch (slight delay), Yahoo S&P500 Mini (delay indicated).Set alerts: Set alarms for major economic indicators, FOMC announcements, and significant earnings releases.Portfolio review: Check sector and stock exposure at least once a week.News filtering: For Powell’s/FOMC remarks, each ‘word’ can change market interpretation, so review the original text, summaries, and analyses.

9) One Thing Others Miss — Interpreting Powell’s ‘Preemptive’ Remark Differently

Many channels argue solely about whether ‘the Fed signaled an interest rate cut or not.’However, the core point is that ‘Powell assessed the economy as still healthy.’If this assessment continues, the stock market will react more sensitively to corporate earnings and expectations of demand recovery than to interest rate decisions.Therefore, investors should place more weight on ‘corporate earnings and consumption trends’ rather than excessively fixating on ‘predicting the interest rate path.’

10) Practical Summary Checklist (For Next Week/Month Preparation)

Check the original text of FOMC/Powell’s remarks.Verify the maintenance of SP futures (author’s benchmark 6,150 / 6,100).Set Nvidia’s 170/180/185 and Tesla’s 400/415 levels as dollar-cost averaging/stop-loss criteria.Discern the stage of economic slowdown by observing consumer sector movements.For small-cap stocks, take positions in advance when market momentum is strong, but establish risk management plans for sharp downturns.Manage risk before and after market open with alarms and futures checks.

Powell’s remarks signaled a ‘healthy economy’ along with the possibility of ‘preemptive action (preparedness).’The market reacted positively, suggesting a potential continuation of the rally, especially in technology stocks.However, pullbacks (corrections) are possible in October, so set up dollar-cost averaging and stop-loss strategies based on SP futures benchmarks (author’s) and key stock levels.Utilizing the divergence between the real economy and the stock market, and the sequence of consumer spending slowdown, can provide an edge in sector and stock selection.For large-cap stocks like Nvidia and Tesla, and small-cap stocks like IONQ, CRWV, MP, INOD, FIG, and IREN, refer to the provided levels for dollar-cost averaging and risk management.

Disclaimer:This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.All investment decisions are your own responsibility.Set position sizes and stop-loss levels according to your individual risk tolerance.

*Source: [ 미국주식은 훌륭하다-미국주식대장 ]

– FOMC 역사상 최고의 발언이 나온 것 같습니다. 10월달 ‘눌림’ 나올 수 있다. 영상 꼭 보세요. 테슬라 엔비디아 네비우스 IONQ CRWV MP INOD FIG IREN