● 2026 KRW Stablecoin War – Korea Races To Seize Global Payments Standard
[Explanation 5] 2026 Stablecoin War and the Practical Roadmap for the ‘KRW Stablecoin’
This article contains three points that other YouTube channels and news outlets rarely touch on.
First, it presents an actionable scenario in which the KRW stablecoin can improve trade settlements felt by export companies within 12 months.
Second, it introduces new demand designs and revenue models encompassing K-content copyrights, consumer goods, and AI micropayments.
Third, it offers a network design and a strategy for capturing standards that realistically resolve the debate over a ‘national mainnet.’
1) 2024 Q4 — Current Status Check: Policy Limitations Resulting from the Lack of International Convertibility of the KRW
The KRW is scarcely used as a settlement currency in the global financial market.
It does not appear in SWIFT settlement market share statistics, nor is it included in the group of convertible currencies.
This is not an inevitable market choice but rather the outcome of a combination of policies such as capital transaction conservatism, limitations of the foreign exchange market infrastructure, and barriers for non-resident users.
For the KRW to play an international role, simultaneous access for non-residents, overseas infrastructure, KRW-denominated financial products, and hedging instruments for exchange rate risk are necessary.
Stablecoins are almost the only tool that can address these four elements at once.
2) 2025 H1 — Immediately Applicable Uses: Southeast Asian Trade, K-Content, and Micropayments
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Southeast Asian SME Trade Settlements
Countries like Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia frequently face a dollar shortage and remittance delays.
By using the KRW stablecoin with T+0 settlement, conditional payment (escrow), and weekly/monthly batch settlements, both exchange rate risk and operational costs can be reduced.
Tokenizing export receivables and linking them to prepayment (factoring) can improve cash flow and lower trade finance interest rates. -
K-Content and Consumer Goods Settlements
Settling K-content copyright revenues with stablecoins can secure both the inflow of non-resident investors and transparency in distribution.
Design products such as royalties, fandom goods, and game items to be KRW-denominated, and enable immediate exchange on global on/off ramps.
Considering that $100 million in K-content exports can generate $180 million in consumer goods, reducing friction at the point of settlement alone can have a significant ripple effect on the global economy. -
Micropayment and High-Frequency Payment Infrastructure
We are approaching an era where Agentic AI buys and sells APIs, data, and images in units ranging from 0.001 to 1 KRW.
The existing card and account-based systems, due to fees and finality issues, are inadequate.
Standard-setting must be led by first adopting KRW stablecoins with account abstraction (automated wallet payments), off-chain probabilistic payments (micropayments), and conditional remittance logic.
3) 2025 H2 — Institutional and Technological Design: Creating Guidelines in a “Workable Way”
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Issuance Structure and Reserves
Banks and electronic financial providers with licenses will issue stablecoins with a trust-type reserve, which is composed of cash, short-term government bonds, and treasury bills.
Daily evidence disclosure, weekly audits, and quarterly reporting of depeg stress test results will be mandated.
Repurchases for small amounts will operate on a T+0 immediate basis, while larger amounts will be processed through a netting window (T+1~T+2) to lessen shocks to the foreign exchange market. -
Risk Control
Combine non-resident limits, a monthly conversion cap, on-chain Travel Rule, and zero-knowledge proof KYC to manage AML/CFT and capital outflow risks.
In times of rapid market change, embed circuit breakers (temporary suspension of new issuances, adjustment of external conversion speeds) at the smart contract level. -
Interoperability and Standards
Ensure compatibility with ISO 20022 mapping, CBDC pilot connectivity, Ethereum L2, and mainstream cross-chain messaging (e.g., CCIP/Axelar).
Publicly propose the AI-Agent Payment Standard as the “KRW Agentic Payments Protocol” and specify the fee and settlement rules in open source.
4) 2026 — The Phase of ‘Stablecoin War’: Creating the First International Competitiveness for the KRW
If dollar stablecoins dominate domestic digital asset settlements and cross-border remittances, the KRW-based digital economy will be sidelined.
The KRW stablecoin must secure three essential overseas demand pillars: Southeast Asian trade settlements, K-content settlements, and AI micropayments.
If Korea captures the industry standard and network effects first, it will qualitatively elevate the KRW’s status in the financial market.
5) The Core Strategy Overlooked by Other Media: Go-To-Market, Pricing & Liquidity, Performance Metrics
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Go-To-Market 90-180-360 Plan
90 days: Pilot a B2B whitelist with 50 export companies in Vietnam and Thailand, integrating remittance and settlement APIs with ERP systems.
180 days: Open KRWx settlement options for sellers on Shopee/Lazada, and connect at least two local on/off ramps from Korean banks.
360 days: Apply KRW-denominated in-app payments and royalty distributions for three global fandom commerce and gaming companies. -
Pricing & Liquidity Design
Achieve cost competitiveness against dollar stablecoins by setting on-chain transfer fees at 5–15 bp and FX spreads at 10–25 bp.
Offer temporary opportunity cost compensation in the form of KTB RP collateral to market makers (MM) to narrow the initial bid-ask spread.
Secure at least three partners with both foreign and KRW bid-ask quotes to eliminate single points of failure. -
KPI/OKR
By the end of 2025: Monthly settlement volume of $300 million. By the end of 2026: $1 billion.
Repeat usage rate of Southeast Asian B2B transactions to exceed 60%.
On-chain settlement of K-content royalties to reach 20%.
Daily transactions for AI micropayments to average 10 million.
6) Resolving the ‘National Mainnet’ Debate: A Practical Compromise between Sovereignty and Openness
A fully state-controlled mainnet increases the risk of censorship and creates a single point of security failure.
Conversely, 100% external dependency would weaken sovereign controls and financial stability tools.
A realistic solution is an “open sovereign L2.”
-
Recommended Architecture
Based on Ethereum L2 (OP Stack or zkL2), with data secured by a global set of validators.
Sequencers will be operated by a public–private consortium in Korea, while provers and validators are open to an internationally distributed governance.
Employ a hybrid of Celestia/EigenDA for data availability and Ethereum call data to guard against censorship and downtime.
The state will manage the rules, the reference client, and the standard audit framework, while node participation is distributed through an international open call. -
Why This Configuration is Important
It combines decentralized security with the disciplined policy objectives, ensuring transparency trusted by overseas operators.
This approach meets the requirements of trust, scalability, and governance for the KRW stablecoin to become a global economic infrastructure.
7) Integration with the AI Economy: The KRW Standard in a World of “Agent-Initiated Payments”
Agentic AI will autonomously reserve, purchase, and settle, leading to ultra-high frequency and ultra-micro payments.
Essential components include account abstraction (automatic subscription and usage payments), homomorphic encryption/zero-knowledge based privacy billing, and conditional settlement logic.
If Korea is the first to propose an “Agent-to-Agent Payment Standard” and form alliances with telecom companies, automotive firms, robotics, and major gaming companies, it can preempt the industry standard (similar to C-type).
The KRW stablecoin will serve as the basic unit of this standard, penetrating both trade settlements and the digital asset market.
8) Risk Map and Mitigation Measures: Capital Outflow, Depeg, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Governance
Capital outflow risks will be managed through non-resident limits, a liquidity window, and netting of repurchases.
Depegging risks will be addressed through multiple reserve assets, daily NAV disclosures, external audits, and dynamic adjustments of collateral ratios.
Regulatory arbitrage will be mitigated by initially expanding the market under a hybrid overseas license and incorporating a bridge clause to align with domestic institutional timelines.
Governance will enhance transparency through a multi-signature vault and on-chain voting, involving issuers, banks, auditors, and user representatives.
9) Proposed Policy Roadmap: From “It Can’t Be Done” to “A Workable Approach”
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0–6 months
Joint guidelines to be issued by the Financial Services Commission, the Bank of Korea, and the Ministry of Science and ICT; finalization of standards for trust-type reserves, audits, and disclosure.
Immediate activation of a cross-border B2B pilot sandbox. -
6–12 months
Onboarding for non-residents with limits, licensing of designated foreign exchange banks for on/off ramps.
Pilot projects for NFT-based trade documents and tokenization of export receivables. -
12–24 months
Public release of the AI payment standard, integration into telecom, robotics, and mobility sectors.
CBDC pilot interoperability tests and verification of risk-sharing protocols.
Policy evaluations will be managed with an economic outlook scorecard.
Quarterly disclosures should include metrics such as the percentage reduction in trade settlement costs, the number of overseas KRW-holding addresses, time taken for royalty settlements, and liquidity indicators in the financial market.
10) Conclusion: “Before Dollar Stablecoins Swallow the KRW, We Must Capture the Standard”
The KRW stablecoin is not merely about streamlining settlements but is a strategic project that establishes Korea’s first international competitiveness for the KRW.
By simultaneously targeting the three demand pillars of Southeast Asian trade, K-content settlements, and agentic AI, and securing trust and scalability through an open sovereign L2, a robust framework can be institutionalized.
If executed with a focus on pricing competitiveness, liquidity, and measurable KPIs, the ‘Stablecoin War’ in 2026 will become an opportunity for the KRW.
From an economic outlook perspective, at this global juncture, the KRW stablecoin is Korea’s shortest-road strategy to drive both trade settlement innovation and digital asset standardization.
[Related Articles…]
KRW Stablecoin Regulatory Roadmap and the 2026 Financial Market Scenario
Agentic AI Payment Standard and the Future of K-Content Royalties
*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]
– [5편] “원화의 위상이 흔들린다”… 한국의 마지막 경쟁력을 찾을 기회 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 정구태 대표, 박혜진 교수, 김광석 교수
● Musk All In on Robot AI – Power First, Korea Opportunity
Elon Musk’s Real Reason for Betting His Life on Robots: A Comprehensive Overview of Tesla’s AI Chips, Power, Policies, and Korean Opportunities (Reinterpreted Conversation 2025.09.22)
The Core Takeaway from This Article
The essence of Tesla’s strategy to use the same AI chip for both cars and humanoid robots is to bundle data, software, certification, and component supply into one pipeline to maximize profits in cost, speed, and safety simultaneously.
Power grids, cooling, and location permits will become the real moats determining the success of AI investments in the future. Electricity comes before chips.
While the U.S. is engaging in a Manhattan Project-style AI infrastructure drive that is absorbing manpower, power, and equipment, it is the right time for Korea to establish a foothold in the memory, foundry, power efficiency, and data center ecosystem.
Although NVIDIA’s dominance is solid with CUDA lock-in, a gap is opening in the real-time domain for vehicles and robots where domain-specific ASICs are chipping away at its market share.
Global economic variables (interest rates, the dollar, exchange rates, inflation) are directly linked to the AI infrastructure cycle, making power unit costs and capital expenditures the core levers of AI profitability.
00:21~01:22 Introduction: The Moment AI Became Part of Everyday Infrastructure
The frequency of using models such as ChatGPT in daily life has surged, and the phase of expansion into mobile and mobility has arrived.
As AI becomes embedded in everyday life, computing moves to the edge, and on-device AI becomes the standard for cars and robots.
My perspective: We have already entered an era where “cloud-only solutions do not meet the requirements for latency, power, and cost,” and dedicated chips for the edge create economic viability.
01:23 Future AI Semiconductor Share: Will Mobility Reach 40%?
The conversation mentioned that mobility could account for up to 40% of the AI semiconductor market.
Autonomous driving requires ultra-low latency and massively parallel computation, making specialized NPUs/ASICs more advantageous than general-purpose GPUs.
Key point: For automotive applications, passing functional safety (ISO 26262, ASIL-D) and reliability standards makes “safety certification” the greatest entry barrier rather than cost.
My perspective: For chips used in cars and robots, factors such as memory bandwidth, real-time OS scheduling, thermal and power budgets, and functional safety architecture (redundancy, fail-safe) are the determining factors.
03:32 Enhancing the Performance of Autonomous Driving Chips: Milliseconds Matter More Than 10x
Buffering and communication delays incurred during cloud round trips can greatly increase judgement errors, so everything must be completed within the vehicle.
The direction of improvement is not in increasing TOPS, but in optimizing memory bandwidth, cache, on-chip network architecture, and software pipeline to reduce “effective latency.”
From a power perspective, if computing in a car consumes an excessive proportion of total power, it compromises driving range and heat management.
My perspective: As we move from L2 to L4, ensuring a guaranteed worst-case latency becomes far more important than absolute performance. This is the rationale behind ASIC adoption.
06:20 Will NVIDIA’s Dominance End?
NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem and developer lock-in remain robust, bolstered by vertical integration such as HBM and a unified software stack.
Nevertheless, domain-specific accelerators (e.g., Rebellion from domestic fabless companies and some global big-tech self-developed ASICs) gain advantages for specific workloads.
My perspective: While NVIDIA’s stronghold remains in data center training, specialized ASICs are emerging as the choke point for inference in vehicles and robots. Both sectors will grow. The competition will expand the overall pie.
08:30 Tesla’s AI Chip: One Stack for Cars and Robots
According to the conversation, Tesla is deploying dedicated chips such as the FSD AI5/AI6 in collaboration with TSMC and Samsung.
The reason for using “the same principle chip” in both cars and Optimus robots is to enable data and software reuse, simplify the supply chain, repurpose certifications, and unify developer tools.
The Dojo architecture aims to integrate training and inference stacks, forming a strategic hub by linking vehicles, robots, and data centers into one learning loop.
My perspective: The “same chip strategy” is optimized to reduce the number of parts SKUs to achieve economies of scale, and to extend OTA updates and FSD data feedback to robots.
14:55 A Trump-Style ‘Manhattan Project’ and the AI Infrastructure Drive
The conversation mentioned that in early 2025, the U.S. will push for a large-scale AI data center (dubbed ‘Stargate’), with capital participation from the UAE, and an accelerated increase in power and server installations.
The policy implications are threefold: reform of power grids and permits, procurement of semiconductor and server equipment, and expansion of the pool of high-level talent (immigration).
My perspective: The actual market impact will be seen in long-term PPA expansion, easing the interconnection permit waiting line, and accelerated review of SMR and HVDC. The grid, not the chip, will be the bottleneck.
Note: Since the details of these policies and projects may change with announcements and progress, investment decisions need to be reverified with the latest official data.
20:13 Leading Korean Companies and Leverage Points
The conversation noted that Samsung Electronics was involved in the production contract for Tesla’s AI6, and emphasized SK Hynix’s competitive edge in HBM.
Korea’s opportunities span vertically from memory (HBM), packaging, power-efficient materials and heat dissipation, to data center operations and platforms.
My perspective: If Korea can combine high-density packaging and high HBM yield with ESS and VPP technologies, it can establish a global position at the intersection of “AI × power.” The challenges, however, are power rates, permit speeds, and talent turnover.
23:59 Tesla’s Roadmap: From FSD to Optimus to Energy
The FSD data loop is expected to transition into learning for robotic manipulation (hand and joint degrees of freedom), and post-Optimus v3, production, logistics, and security operations may accelerate in practical applications.
Tesla’s ESS, solar, and VPP are evolving into an energy OS that encompasses the loads of vehicles, robots, and data centers.
My perspective: Tesla’s essence will be defined not by products, but by a “learnable electromechanical network.” Revenue will be bolstered by subscriptions, fleets, and power trading.
26:07 Tesla’s Connected Businesses: When Storytelling Translates into Tangible Reality
Space (Starship), robotics (Optimus), communications (Starlink), and brain-computing (Neuralink) are interwoven as a narrative that strengthens brand lock-in.
My perspective: Although the story yields a premium beyond demand elasticity, regulatory and safety issues will serve as speed control for the narrative.
27:08 The Next AI Companies/Themes to Watch: After Chips Comes ‘Power’
The conversation also noted that power is the top priority theme. AI data centers face bottlenecks in cooling, location, and grid connectivity.
Opportunity 1: Power infrastructure for data centers (HV/MV electrical equipment, grid interconnection EPC, substations, and UPS systems).
Opportunity 2: Cooling innovations (immersion, direct liquid cooling, water cooling), high-performance heat sinks, TIM, and nano-carbon thermal materials.
Opportunity 3: Carbon and price-aware schedulers (shifting workloads to low power, low cost, and low carbon slots by time and region), with potential cloud cost savings of 20–40%.
Opportunity 4: Long-term power procurement (PPA), combined renewable energy with ESS, grid-forming inverters, demand response (DR), and VPP.
Opportunity 5: Concurrent development of regional distributed power and data centers through SMR and cogeneration.
My perspective: The key KPI will shift from “AI MIPS/$” to “AI MIPS/kWh.” Power costs will be the new driver of earnings volatility.
Korean Investment Checkpoints: At the Intersection of Macroeconomics and Industry
Global economic variables such as interest rate trajectories will determine the pace of CAPEX for data centers and power infrastructure.
A strong dollar and exchange rate fluctuations will directly impact the costs and margins for imported servers, HBM, and equipment.
If inflation pushes up energy and construction costs, AI unit prices and cloud fees are likely to increase.
My perspective: An “AI-Power Valley” in Korea will materialize when policies (power rates, renewable energy permits, transmission investment) and private initiatives (data center location, long-term PPAs) align.
Risk Checklist
Safety and Regulations: Delays in functional safety certifications for vehicles and robots, changes in liability rules for accidents.
Supply Chain: Tight capacity for HBM, advanced packaging, EUV, and long lead times for equipment.
Policies and Geopolitics: Export controls, immigration policies, delays in power and site permits.
Macroeconomics: Stagnant interest rates, a strong dollar, volatile exchange rates, and surging energy prices will all act as leverage on AI performance.
Investment Ideas (Theme/Case Based)
Power Infrastructure: Substation, cable, and grid interconnection EPC, HVDC/long-cycle ESS, VPP operation and software.
Efficient Semiconductors and Materials: Domain-specific ASICs for vehicles and robots, energy-efficient memory and packaging, thermal materials, TIM, and liquid cooling.
Data Center Operations: Carbon and price-aware schedulers, multi-cloud cost optimization, and PUE improvement solutions.
Korean Positioning: Leveraging HBM, advanced packaging, ESS, and VPP to aim for a vertically integrated “AI × Power” track.
Note: This content is for informational purposes only, and investment decisions and responsibilities lie with each individual. Verification with the latest official disclosures, policies, and market data is necessary.
< Summary >
Tesla is integrating cars and robots with a unified chip, data, and software stack to simultaneously achieve speed, cost efficiency, and safety.
The real bottleneck in AI is not the chip, but the power grid, cooling, and permits. Power unit costs and long-term PPAs are the core levers for profitability.
While NVIDIA maintains its stronghold in training, domain-specific ASICs are making inroads in vehicles and robots.
Korea has an opportunity to ride the wave in HBM, packaging, ESS, and data centers. The battle will be decided by macro variables (interest rates, the dollar, exchange rates, inflation) and policy timing.
[Related Articles…]
View Latest Tesla Articles
View Latest Data Center Articles
*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]
– 일론 머스크가 로봇에 목숨 거는 이유(ft.이재훈 작가 1부)
● US economy time bomb, Manhattan not spared – Moodys 41 trillion warning
The Time Bomb of the U.S. Economy, Manhattan Is No Exception: The Real Meaning of Moody’s $41 Trillion Warning and Investment Timeline
This article contains three key points.
First, the logic behind Moody’s projection of $41 trillion in physical damage by 2050 due to climate change and the inherent flaws in that calculation.
Second, why the United States and Manhattan amplify shockwaves through insurance, real estate, and financial systems.
Third, the signals that money will start moving in the markets immediately—municipal bonds, mortgages, catastrophe bonds, grid investments, and how AI will transform risk pricing.
The core issues directly related to U.S. equity market volatility, inflationary pressures, interest rate trajectories, dollar flows, and GDP losses have been organized chronologically.
2023~2025: What’s Happening Now—It’s Not About the Numbers but the Change in Cash Flow
Moody’s warns that cumulative physical damage from climate change could reach $41 trillion by 2050.
This figure is closer to “cash outlay” rather than a simple model estimate, as it combines disaster frequency data, insurance loss ratios, recovery costs, production disruptions, and regional asset values.
In 2023, global economic losses from natural disasters are estimated at around $280 billion, and insurance payouts have remained in the vicinity of $100 billion for several consecutive years.
In other words, balance sheet deteriorations are already affecting the income statement, and tighter financial conditions lower resilience.
The key issue is not the numbers themselves but the emerging trends where rising insurance premiums and capital costs are causing a realignment of financing rates regionally and across industries.
Why the United States and Manhattan Are a Time Bomb: The Triple Structure of Exposure × Asset Concentration × Insurance System
First, exposure.
The United States is particularly prone to multiple simultaneous disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, floods, and droughts.
For example, storm surges along the Florida and Gulf coasts, major wildfires in the West, and recurring droughts in the Midwest can occur in the same year.
Second, asset concentration.
Major cities such as New York, LA, and Houston possess world-class concentrations of financial, real estate, and infrastructure assets.
A single event can result in enormous losses, triggering a cascade of adverse effects on tax revenues, employment, and consumption.
Third, the insurance and financial mechanism.
A high reliance on private insurance means that when loss ratios spike, insurers reduce exposure or withdraw, and the shock transfers to the mortgage, commercial loan, and municipal bond markets.
An example is the several-fold surge in homeowners’ insurance premiums in Florida over a few years.
Manhattan Point Checks: Not Just Saltwater but Also “Groundwater + Brine + Bond Spreads”
Rising sea levels and storm surges are beginning to be incorporated into prices even for low-lying areas.
Lower Manhattan’s commercial real estate faces not only flood risks but also combined risks from rising groundwater levels and corrosion of electricity, telecommunications, and subway systems due to saltwater intrusion.
It’s not just about recovery costs.
Soaring insurance premiums, higher deductibles, and declining collateral values unsettle LTV and DSCR, causing refinancing rates to rise.
This leads to wider CMBS spreads, increased refinancing difficulties due to maturity walls, and simultaneous pressures of higher vacancy rates and lower rents.
Municipal bonds for entities like New York City and the MTA may experience increased spreads in the future due to higher capital expenditures for flood protection and grid reinforcement.
If the migration of tenants and high-income groups to higher ground intensifies, the tax base will gradually erode, reducing fiscal capacity.
Secondary Shocks Beyond Moody’s Estimates: Aspects Largely Ignored by Other Media
1) The conditions underlying mortgages will crumble.
In regions where insurance is unavailable or premiums are exorbitant, 30-year fixed mortgages will disappear or will carry significantly higher interest rates.
Price declines begin not when physical damage occurs, but the moment the possibility of borrowing vanishes.
2) Bottlenecks in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and reinsurance threaten financial stability.
When reinsurance premiums and ILS (catastrophe bond) yields rise, primary insurers reduce their underwriting limits, narrowing the credit channels for residential and commercial loans.
3) Asymmetric risks in municipal bonds.
Certain infrastructure income bonds are more sensitive to climate shocks than general obligation bonds (GOs), and limitations on the ability to raise user fees constrain credit.
4) Grid bottlenecks and a structural premium on electricity prices.
The surge in demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and electrification boosts the price elasticity of power demand.
If clean power procurement is delayed and electricity prices rise alongside weather risks, energy-related inflation will become sticky, slowing the pace of interest rate declines.
5) The redistribution of corporate accounting and capital costs.
Asset impairments and frequent CapEx reinvestments reduce ROIC.
Even within the same industry, WACC diverges depending on location and supply chain factors, leading to a reallocation of valuation multiples.
AI Trend: Changing the Pricing of Risk
Risk Measurement.
AI models that combine satellite, radar, LIDAR, and IoT data calculate building-level probabilities of flooding and fire, fine-tuning insurance premiums and mortgage rates.
Economies of Scale.
The integration of physics-based models with generative AI dynamically incorporates regional construction costs, probabilities of project delays, and component lead times.
Financial Productization.
Parametric insurance and catastrophe bonds are distributed in API form, and “climate clauses” are standardized in supply chain contracts.
The Paradox of Electricity Demand.
A surge in AI computation demand triggers a supercycle in grid equipment such as transformers, HVDC systems, submarine cables, and ultra-high voltage switchgear.
If clean power sourcing falls behind, electricity costs at data centers rise, thereby increasing corporate costs and fueling inflation.
Sector-Specific Risk Map: Five Tangible Pillars
Infrastructure.
The redundancy and waterproofing design of roads, bridges, subways, and grids are critical; downtime costs can exceed recovery expenses.
Insurance.
Rising loss ratios lead to higher premiums, reduced coverage, and tighter underwriting, directly impacting loan rates.
Agriculture & Food.
Infections and floods simultaneously compromise both yield and quality, perpetuating food inflation.
Labor Productivity.
Heatwaves and deteriorating air quality reduce on-site working hours and increase safety costs, eroding margins.
Financial Markets.
Increased volatility in corporate earnings and rising default risks widen credit spreads and may reinforce a preference for dollar liquidity.
Policy & Governance Checklist: At the Intersection of Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy
Strengthening building codes and land use regulations acts as a “front-loaded investment and later savings” mechanism that reduces long-term GDP losses.
Issuing adaptation infrastructure bonds by federal and state governments increases the supply of municipal bonds, potentially altering spread dynamics.
Central banks will have to address a mix of short-term deflation and mid-term supply-driven inflation following disasters, which could limit the pace of interest rate cuts.
Climate disclosure serves not as an expense but as a prerequisite for lowering capital costs.
Investment Timeline: 0–6 Months, 6–24 Months, 2025–2030
0–6 Months.
Identify regions with surging insurance premium renewal rates and monitor CMBS/municipal bond spreads with high exposure to those areas.
Consider diversifying in sections where catastrophe bond (ILS) pricing is rising.
6–24 Months.
Examine the value chain of the grid expansion theme—transformers, cables, protective relays, energy storage, and distributed resource management software.
Select companies involved in disaster prevention, drainage, pump systems, and underground waterproofing construction and materials.
2025–2030.
Select industrial and logistics REITs in high-ground or inland logistics hubs and data centers with excellent power accessibility, while reducing exposure to low-lying commercial real estate.
Build a mid-to-long-term basket including stocks in agriculture, water technology, leak detection, precision irrigation, and desalination.
Checklist for Corporations and Institutions: “What to Do Now”
Map out climate risks for each asset across facilities, warehouses, and branches on a building-by-building basis, and simulate risk mitigation investments and franchise adjustments before insurance renewals.
Diversify the geographic concentration of key suppliers and pre-contract alternative supply routes.
Bundle long-term PPAs, energy storage, and packages for power procurement to reduce electricity price volatility.
Present numerical scenarios for impairment, CapEx, and downtime through IR and disclosures to lower the WACC.
Price Signal Points for Coastal Cities, Including Manhattan
A surge in regions where insurance is unavailable leads to a collapse in transaction volumes, followed by lower asking prices and depreciated appraisals.
An inflection point occurs when commercial real estate loan refinancing difficulties coincide with worsening refinancing rates and vacancy rates.
If municipal bond spreads widen alongside growing fiscal deficits, the erosion of the tax base becomes a reality, leaving policymakers with no choice but to choose between raising taxes and cutting services.
Macroeconomic Ripple Effects: Inflation, Interest Rates, the Dollar, and U.S. Equities
Immediately after a disaster, headline CPI may temporarily drop due to subdued demand; however, recovery costs and surging insurance premiums and electricity prices keep core inflation sticky.
The Federal Reserve is likely to gradually ease policies while balancing recession risks and inflationary pressures.
The dollar may strengthen in risk-off scenarios, potentially triggering a resurgence of capital outflows from emerging markets.
In the U.S. equity market, defensive stocks as well as those in infrastructure, grid, and insurance/reinsurance themes are expected to outperform, while stocks with high exposure to low-lying commercial real estate may face significant discounts.
< Summary >
The essence of Moody’s $41 trillion warning lies in the “realignment of capital costs” across insurance, finance, and real estate.
The United States and Manhattan act as shock amplifiers due to their structures of exposure, asset concentration, and insurance systems.
What matters more than the figures are the pricing signals from insurance availability, municipal/CMBS spreads, grid bottlenecks, and electricity prices.
AI will micro-price risks and accelerate grid investment cycles.
Respond with investments focused on spread checks over 0–6 months, grid and disaster prevention value chains over 6–24 months, and regional repositioning in 2025–2030.
[Related Articles…]
The Paradox of AI Energy Consumption: Data Centers and Grid Investments
*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]
– 미국경제의 시한폭탄, 해안도시 맨해튼도 예외 없어 | 길금희 특파원
