● US Stocks Preheat, 2026 AI-Power-Liquidity Superbubble

American Stock Market Bubble, Still Only in the Warming-Up Phase: A Deep Dive into the 2026 Mega Bubble Scenario and the Three Catalysts of AI, Power, and Liquidity

From the remaining quarters of this year until 2026, my writing includes all three key elements that most YouTube videos and news overlook.
First, it is the “energy-constrained AI CapEx flywheel” created by the interplay of artificial intelligence infrastructure, power, and semiconductors.
Second, it is the period of rapid liquidity changes in the first half of 2026, when the Treasury (TGA) and reverse repo (RRP) balances, as well as Treasury re-fixing, converge.
Third, it is the policy calendar in which issues of securing “sovereign AI” procurement and tax expiry simultaneously trigger corporations’ share buybacks, M&A, and capital expenditures.
These three are the unofficial catalysts that will ignite a full-blown bubble in the US stock market and are directly linked to the pinnacle of the global economy and the Fourth Industrial Revolution cycle.

2025 Q4: The Preparation Phase of the Bubble – Why Now Is Crucial

The visible indicators are deceptive.
Headline disinflation is underway, but power rates and capital goods prices related to data centers remain sticky.
The Fed, watching the inflation–employment balance, remains cautious, while the market increasingly bets on interest rate cuts with caution.
On the other hand, real activity is rapidly building up with AI-related orders and long-term PPAs in the utility sector, creating visibility for 2026 performance.
US stock market liquidity is opened up at the top by 0DTE options and structured product delta hedging, while suppressing bottom volatility.
The key point is the divergence between listed large AI infrastructure beneficiaries and the belated second wave (power, grid, HBM, substrate).
The current rally is most likely just the prologue of the main game.

2026 H1: Ignition Phase – The Triple Thrust of Liquidity, Policy, and Power

• Liquidity Pivot.
  When the RRP balance bottoms out and the Treasury issuance split shifts toward short-term instruments, financial conditions may ease faster than expected.
  There is a growing possibility that stablecoin reserves might partially exit T-bills and be recirculated into risk assets.
  In this phase, the value chain outperforms the ticker.

• The Front-Loading Effect of the Policy Calendar and Tax Measures.
  After the election, if congressional negotiations adjust depreciation, R&D amortization, and international tax rules, companies will accelerate share buybacks and M&A execution in the first half of 2026.
  Simultaneous announcements of large-scale computing procurements to pursue sovereign AI by the US, Europe, and the Middle East will create backlogs for semiconductor equipment, packaging, and HBM.

• Power and Physical Constraints.
  Data centers will be bottlenecked by transmission, distribution, and substation constraints, making power, space, and cooling the “new collateral.”
  Investments in grid reinforcement, ultra-high voltage transformers, gas-peaking power generation, and expectations for Small Modular Reactors (SMR) will boost utility valuations.
  In this phase, performance surprises may come more from “power, grid, cooling, and components” than from AI GPU sales alone.

2026 H2: Overheating and Wide-Spreading – The Core of the Bubble

The commercialization of AI agents will bring the productivity narrative into focus, and re-rating in non-AI sectors will begin.
The adoption of edge AI will stimulate replacement demand for consumer electronics, and network CAPEX from telecom and cloud companies will surge again.
Coupled with record-high retail margin lending and a crypto reboot, the bubble beta in the “US stock market” will spread across the market.
An increasing frequency of positive call gamma transitions in the options market will lead to repeated top-chasing rallies.
During this period, while the news focuses solely on “unlimited AI demand,” the real key factors are “cash flows secured by power contracts” and “equipment delivery timelines.”
Earnings will be brought forward, partially pre-reflecting expectations for 2027 in the second half of 2026.

2027~: Peak-Out Risk – What Could Be the Fuse for a Collapse?

The underlying balance of long-term interest rates will be recalibrated, and rising fiscal deficits along with increased net supply could push up the “term premium” once again.
Once the supply of AI components catches up, GPU and HBM spreads will narrow, and the IRR of some capital expenditures may decline.
Policy risks will emerge in the form of antitrust measures, tighter data governance, and stricter export controls, acting as a damper on the super cycle.
Japan’s carry unwind, CRE refinancing, and rapid expansion of credit spreads will persist as tail risks.
The end of the bubble begins at the moment when a phase of rising even on bad news turns into a phase where even good news fails to spark an upward move.

Details the News Doesn’t Cover: The Hidden Levers of Market Microstructure

The systematic demand for 0DTE options reinforces intraday trend continuation and widens the upper and lower gaps.
Delta and vega hedging in structured products (autocallables) in the US and Asia opens the upside during rallies and intensifies selling pressure in downturns.
This trend can drive prices much further, regardless of fundamentals, justifying the overshooting at the top of the bubble.
Therefore, monitoring market microstructure directly translates into alpha, rather than relying solely on indicators.

The Physics of the AI Super Cycle: Not Transistors, but Power

While “compute scaling” drives performance, in 2026–2027 the bottlenecks will be power, cooling, and space.
When the software S-curve converges with hardware bottlenecks, both ASP and margins rise simultaneously.
HBM, CoWoS/packaging, photoresist, power semiconductors, and transformer core steel sheets become unexpected sources of alpha.
AI demand shifts beyond data centers, with edge NPUs, on-device models, and integrated security supporting the medium- to long-term cycle.

Liquidity Roadmap: TGA, RRP, Re-fixing Calendar

Approaching the bottom of the RRP enhances the volatility of leveraged money and shortens the circuit to risk assets.
The Treasury’s mix of short- and long-term issuances, the monthly re-fixing scale, and changes in bank liquidity regulations can amplify the effect of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026.
Tracking stablecoin issuance balances and reserve compositions on a monthly basis provides a leading signal for risk asset inflows.
All of this implies that the “path of liquidity” is more crucial than the interest rate cut itself.

Sector and Theme Positioning Roadmap

• Core for 2025 Q4~2026 H1.
  AI Infrastructure (top-tier GPUs, HBM, advanced packaging), Power and Grid (utilities, transformers, cables), Data Center REITs, Cooling and Power Equipment.
  Order books and long-term PPA visibility are key.

• Expansion for 2026 H1~H2.
  Network equipment, edge AI semiconductors, industrial automation and robotics, cybersecurity, communications infrastructure.
  Among non-AI sectors, software and high-quality manufacturing with strong productivity leverage are also targets for re-rating.

• Risk Hedge.
  Long-duration hedges for long-term bonds (TLT puts and negatively correlated assets), credit spread monitoring, and absolute volatility purchases serve as insurance in overheated phases.
  Long-term stories with weak cash flows may have significant rally resilience at the tail end, but also larger drops during cycle transitions.

Checklist: Signals for Bubble Ignition and Peak-Out

• Ignition Signals.
  Bottoming of RRP balances, narrowing of credit spreads, semiconductor equipment order/sales ratios exceeding 1.2x, and an increase in large-scale PPA announcements by utilities.

• Overheat Signals.
  Record-high margin lending, reactivation of IPOs/SPACs, extreme option call/put ratios, and surges even on bad news.

• Peak-Out Signals.
  A simultaneous surge in long-term interest rates and widening spreads, a downward shift in the ASP of key AI components, increased order cancellations, and a lack of reaction even to good news.

Five Investment Idea Principles

Focus on infrastructure-based AI plays with visible cash flows as the core.
Incorporate the premise that “power is the new collateral” into the portfolio.
Regularly monitor liquidity indicators (RRP, TGA, re-fixing) and options market microstructure.
Establish profit-taking rules during rallies and cash allocation rules during sharp declines in advance.
Diversify across regions and currencies in line with global economic regime shifts and price in regulatory risks.

< Summary >

The essence of the 2026 bubble is not driven by AI demand, but by excess profits generated from bottlenecks in power, grid, and packaging along with the recirculation of liquidity.
A liquidity pivot and policy calendar in the first half will accelerate share buybacks, M&A, and CapEx, causing index beta to surge.
In the second half, re-rating will spread even to non-AI sectors, and market microstructure will drive prices further.
Peak-out signals are identified through simultaneous warnings from long-term interest rates and credit spreads, a downturn in the ASP of key AI components, and a lack of response to positive news.
The keywords are US stock market, global economy, interest rate cuts, artificial intelligence, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

[Related Articles…]

An Overview of the Factors Triggering the US Stock Market Bubble

Checklist for AI Power Grid Disruptions and Data Center Investments

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– 미 증시 본격 버블은 아직 시작도 안했다? 2026 버블 시나리오(풀버전)

---

---

● Data Blackout, Bitcoin Breakout

[Immediate Analysis] The True Catalyst Behind the Prolonged U.S. Federal Government Shutdown and Bitcoin’s All-Time High Rebound: Data Blackout, TGA Liquidity, Stablecoin Issuance Cycle

This article contains only the key points that most news outlets skip.
1) The hidden variable of “data blackout” caused by the shutdown, affecting quant models, ETFs schedules, and capital flows.
2) The impact on market “liquidity” through the Treasury’s cash balance (TGA) and delayed expenditures.
3) The mechanism and checkpoints by which stablecoin issuance/redemption signals Bitcoin supply and demand shifts.
4) The shifting correlation between interest rates, the dollar, real yields on treasuries, and Bitcoin.
5) A chronological summary of portfolio strategies by scenario.
According to reports, the Senate’s failure to pass a stopgap budget has made a shutdown a reality for the first time in about seven years, and Bitcoin is trading near its all-time high.
Rather than the numbers themselves, this analysis structurally examines why these “price dynamics” are unfolding right now.

Timeline Overview: Understanding in Terms of D0~D7, D8~D30, and D30+

D0~D7 (Immediate Period): Policy uncertainties spike, and delayed macroeconomic data releases cause a “data blackout.”
Traditional assets reflect event risk and experience increased volatility, while alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold, which trade 24/7, gain a premium.
D8~D30 (Short-Term Period): With employment and inflation data being delayed, the Fed’s expected path oscillates wildly, fueling bets on falling interest rates and “liquidity expectations.”
When net stablecoin issuance increases, it tends to improve cryptocurrency supply-demand dynamics and boost BTC Dominance.
D30+ (Recovery/Normalization Period): A “catch-up” effect of unexecuted government spending creates a short-term liquidity surge.
In this phase, a readjustment of interest rates, the dollar, and altcoin rotation takes place.

1. The Mechanism of the Shutdown and the Distinctive Aspects of This Cycle

Only essential services are maintained for government functions, while non-essential sectors are halted.
Key economic indicators such as BLS (employment), BEA (GDP), CPI, etc., are delayed, shaking the market’s “model-based decision-making.”
Regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC operate with only essential personnel, potentially slowing down reviews and enforcement actions.
As a result, ETF review schedules, new issuances/registrations, and some enforcement actions may be delayed, temporarily reducing regulatory headline risk.
This cycle’s turning point is the combination of a “restructuring mindset” and a “data gap.”
If the shutdown is prolonged and workforce reductions become a reality, the path of slowing employment → weakened demand → downward pressure on inflation → expectations of rate cuts is reinforced.
This in turn enhances “liquidity” expectations that drive asset prices (stocks, gold, Bitcoin) higher.

2. The Three Overlooked Catalysts Behind Bitcoin’s Surge

1) Data Blackout Premium: In the absence of macro data, Bitcoin, which discovers prices 24/7, earns a premium as an “immediate response asset.”
Quant, option, and risk-parity models reduce their dependency on data, shifting hedges and bets toward crypto, where liquidity is active.
2) The Timing Gap Between TGA and Expenditure Catch-Up: During the shutdown, delayed expenditures can increase the Treasury’s cash balance (TGA), which may temporarily drain liquidity from the banking system.
However, once the government reopens and the catch-up effect of delayed spending occurs, funds rapidly flow into both the real and financial markets, stimulating a rally in risk assets.
This mechanism, when anticipated, links directly to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
3) The Leading Role of Net Stablecoin Issuance: When actual inflows are strong, the market capitalization of stablecoins such as USDT and USDC increases.
When net issuance (issuance minus redemption) turns positive, it signals accumulating exchange reserves and leads to demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Monitoring on-chain activities such as new minting, exchange wallet inflows, and spot premiums (Kimchi Premium, Coinbase Premium) can refine timing further.

3. Dynamics with Gold, the Dollar, and Real Yields on Treasuries

During periods of heightened short-term uncertainty, both “gold” and “Bitcoin” can strengthen together.
However, if the dollar (DXY) and the 10-year real yield (nominal yield minus inflation expectations) diverge in direction, the strength between gold and Bitcoin may differ.
Generally, falling real yields are favorable for both gold and Bitcoin.
If a prolonged shutdown fosters fears of a recession, expectations for lower rates precede and, when coupled with a weakening dollar, Bitcoin’s beta increases.
Conversely, if issues such as a downgrade in national credit ratings intensify, both short-term and long-term interest rates and the dollar could fluctuate wildly, making volatility management the top priority.

4. Scenario Outlooks and Checklists

Base Scenario (Medium Probability): A short- to mid-term shutdown persists, with delayed data creating increased uncertainty over the Fed’s “rate” path.
If net stablecoin issuance (USDT/USDC) remains positive, BTC Dominance rises, and the 10-year real yield stabilizes at lower levels, Bitcoin’s strength endures, with Ethereum following later.
Bull Scenario (Low to Medium Probability): An early resolution followed by a catch-up in spending post-reopening triggers a “liquidity” surge.
If a weakening dollar and falling rates accompany this, rotation into altcoins and Ethereum occurs, with sectors like AI and L2 showing resilience.
Bear Scenario (Tail Risk): A prolonged shutdown coupled with large-scale layoffs and heightened rating risks.
A sharp rise in the dollar, mixed movements in interest rates, and increased volatility in crypto, along with potential decoupling between spot and derivatives, become significant risks.
Checklist: 1) 7-day net issuance trends of stablecoins, 2) BTC Dominance, 3) DXY range of 104~106 upper/lower bounds, 4) 10-year real yield (±1.8%), 5) spot ETF premium and spot-futures basis, 6) exchange net inflows/outflows, 7) Fed speeches and the trajectory of interest rate futures.

5. Investment Strategies (By Timeframe): Barbell and Ladder Approaches

D0~D7: This is a period of event-driven volatility.
Diversify risk using a barbell strategy with cash, gold, and Bitcoin, and consider a laddered approach for entering Bitcoin positions.
When using derivatives, consider spread strategies centered on buying volatility, but be wary of rollout risks when funding rates become overheated.
D8~D30: When net stablecoin issuance remains positive and BTC Dominance increases over one to two weeks, begin rotation into Ethereum and major altcoins.
If on-chain activities (new addresses, transaction fees, L2 trading volumes) accompany this move, confidence in the strategy increases.
D30+: In the phase of government spending catch-up, if the dollar and interest rates transition to a weaker state, consider increasing exposure to altcoins.
However, if signs of reaccelerating “inflation” emerge, reduce exposures immediately.

6. Risk Management and Regulatory Variables

While reduced staffing and delays at regulatory agencies can temporarily diminish headline regulatory risks, a backlog of issues may surface all at once when operations resume.
Be responsive to factors such as stablecoin pegs across exchanges, banks’ on/off ramp conditions, and notices on listings or delistings.
In the event of security issues (such as bridge or key management incidents), risks can transfer rapidly, so diversification using cold wallets and multi-signature arrangements is essential.

7. AI Trend Perspective: Alternative Data and On-Chain AI in the Era of Data Blackouts

When official statistics pause, investment teams turn to “alternative data” for nowcasting, utilizing LLM-based news, on-chain data, card transactions, satellite imagery, and web scraping.
On-chain AI agents that normalize and summarize on-chain data in real time can automatically convert stablecoin net issuance, exchange inflows, and whale behaviors into alerts.
AI infrastructure spending is particularly sensitive to interest rates.
The greater the expectation for falling rates, the more resilient the demand for data centers, GPUs, and power can be in the short term, potentially extending to the “infrastructure/storage” theme within AI-related tokens.

8. Practical Daily Checklist: A 10-Minute Routine

– Stablecoin market cap/net issuance (USDT, USDC) and exchange net inflows/outflows.
– BTC Dominance, spot-futures basis, and perpetual futures funding rates.
– DXY, 10-year nominal and real yields, and breakeven inflation.
– Treasury TGA balance and reverse repo (RRP) balance trends to gauge “liquidity” direction.
– When official indicators are delayed, use high-frequency alternative indicators (online prices, job postings, card transactions) for nowcasting “inflation and employment.”
– Keep an eye on regulatory announcements, listings/delistings on exchanges, and major unlock or token vesting schedules.

Price Mentions and Interpretation Caution

According to reports, Bitcoin is trading near its all-time high.
The key point is not the numbers themselves, but the structural mechanism of shutdown → data blackout → uncertainty in the interest rate path → expanding “liquidity” expectations.
As long as this mechanism persists, corrections are likely buying opportunities, but shocks such as national credit issues, employment shocks, or reaccelerated inflation can change the conditions immediately.
Always have predetermined stop-loss and rebalancing rules for each scenario.

Key Takeaways: Points Others Do Not Mention

– The data blackout gives Bitcoin a “price discovery premium.”
– The timing gap between the TGA balance and expenditure catch-up determines short-term liquidity and rally timing.
– Net stablecoin issuance acts as crypto’s “M2.”
A sustained rally is possible only if this indicator turns positive.
– When falling real yields and a weakening dollar occur simultaneously, Bitcoin’s beta is maximized.
– The period immediately after the shutdown is a key rotational phase.
Rotation into altcoins should occur only when on-chain activity supports it.

Risk Disclaimer

This article is intended for educational macro and market analysis purposes and is not investment advice.
In highly volatile periods, prioritize position sizing and leverage management.

< Summary >

The shutdown disturbs the interest rate path and liquidity expectations through data blackout and delayed spending.
In this gap, Bitcoin, operating on a 24/7 market, secures a “price discovery premium,” while increased net stablecoin issuance supports the rally.
Since TGA and post-reopening catch-up spending can trigger short-term liquidity surges, closely monitor DXY, real yields, BTC Dominance, and net stablecoin issuance.
The strategy begins with a barbell (cash, gold, Bitcoin) and laddered entry, followed by rotation into altcoins during the normalization phase if supported by on-chain activity.

[Related Articles…]
U.S. TGA and Liquidity: Immediate Impact on Bitcoin
Investing in the Era of Data Blackouts: Utilizing Alternative Data and On-Chain Indicators

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [속보] 미국 셧다운 장기화… 비트코인 역사상 최고치 재갱신 [즉시분석]

---

---

● AI War Economy Booms, Space-Seabed Fronts Erupt, Inflation Rekindles, Cuts Delayed

Putin’s Debate Over the Collapse of Naval Supremacy, the Real Limits of Chinese Military Power, and the Identity of the “New Battlespace”: A Comprehensive Summary of Core Points on Geopolitical Risks and AI Warfare Economics This Fall

This article covers 1) the actual power gap revealed during China’s Victory Day and the Taiwan battlefield scenario, 2) the specific coordinates of the “new battlespace” soon to unfold (LEO space, underwater infrastructure, AI drone economics), 3) the real meaning of Russia’s collapse of naval supremacy and bottlenecks in its war economy, 4) the cost/risk structure of North Korea-Russia military trade, and 5) the key shock points for the global economy in 2025 regarding interest rates, inflation, and supply chains.
It has been restructured primarily around the “hidden decisive factors” not often discussed elsewhere, focusing on numbers and chains (supply, information, capital).
In particular, elements such as space-cyber supremacy, the unit cost war of counter(anti)-drone capabilities, and underwater cable risks that can move markets outside headline news are intensively assessed.

2024.09—10: The Gap Between “Show of Force” and “Can They Fight?” Confirmed After China’s Victory Day

China showcased a large number of missiles, amphibious equipment, and drones specialized for a Taiwan landing and blockade in its parade.
The focus is on “frontyard fighting (Taiwan Strait/nearshore)” optimization, while the ability for “prolonged operations in the open ocean (deployments in the US Western Pacific)” remains incomplete.
The difference with the United States lies not in the number of platforms but in the closure of the “kill chain.”
It is an era where the contest is won by who can execute the loop of reconnaissance-identification-tracking-decision-strike in a shorter, more frequent, and more cost-effective manner.

• Limitations in aerial refueling/long-range patrol
  Besides the numbers of H-6K and J-16, sustained operations of aerial refuelers and AWACS are crucial.
  In long-range projection, the gap with the US’s ecosystem of E-7 and KC-46 class C2/refueling is significant.

• Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and signal intelligence
  While not obvious in a Taiwan blockade scenario, the core of the US and Japan lies in submarines and sensor networks like the P-8A and SOSUS series.
  China’s ASW still lags behind the US and Japan in terms of coverage, operator proficiency, and data fusion.

• The quality-quantity trade-off for ammunition and guided systems
  Although missile/drone mass production was showcased, the quality differences in precision guidance components, low-noise RF, and heat-resistant materials determine sustained operational capabilities.
  The gap between show (demonstration) and operational readiness (actual functioning) represents the real power disparity.

• Conclusion
  China can display a high initial strike capability in a “Taiwan nearshore battlefield” but will find it challenging to catch up with the US in terms of prolonged operations, open ocean battles, and integrated joint C4ISR.
  Geopolitical risks create volatility with short-term surges and long-term buffers, impacting global economic supply chains and the pathways of inflation.

2024.10—2025.03: Three Ground Zero Points Where the “New Battlespace” Will Open

1) LEO Space-Spectrum Battlespace
LEO communication/reconnaissance satellite networks, tactical data links, and disruption of GPS/BeiDou are redefining naval supremacy.
Now, supremacy extends beyond the sky to “orbit and frequency.”

• Game Changer
  The “change detection” capabilities of commercial SAR+EO satellites are shortening from 12–24 hours to 1–3 hours.
  The increase in lightweight models (onboard AI) on tactical terminals further shortens the strike loop.
• Key Variables
  Launch cadence, spectrum management, anti-jamming waveform, and power-thermal management will determine victory.

2) Underwater Infrastructure (Cables/Pipes) Battlespace
In conflicts between nations, underwater cables may be cut, and power/gas pipelines disrupted as a first move.
Once severed, delays in financial settlements, cloud, and logistics data occur, spreading inflationary pressure across the global economy.

• Signals
  Increased installation of monitoring equipment in depths of 1,000–3,000m, rerouting of cable landing points, and elevated insurance premiums will emerge.

3) The “Unit Cost War” of AI Drones and Counter-Drone Systems
Numerous low-cost unmanned systems will blanket the battlespace rather than relying on large platforms.
In response, electronic warfare (EW), directed energy, and networked SHORAD become the new standard.

• More About Economics Than Numbers
  If an attack costs 1 dollar and defense costs 10 dollars, defense loses.
  Conversely, if soft-kill (EW) can reduce the defense cost to under 1 dollar, the revenue model for attack collapses.
• Investment Signals
  Power semiconductors, RF components, thermal management, low-earth orbit communications, and edge AI are the core nodes of the supply chain.

2024.11—2025.06: The True Meaning of Russia’s “Collapse” of Naval Supremacy

Rather than describing it as a “complete loss,” it is more accurately assessed as an “intensely contested airspace due to the expansion of integrated air defense networks.”
Long-range SAMs (Patriot, SAMP/T) alongside distributed IR/SAM systems, decoys/fake targets, and mobile launchers in Ukraine have severely constrained the operational freedom of Russian tactical aviation.
The loss of an A-50 early warning aircraft, losses of Ka-52/MI-8 series, and incidents involving Su-34 being hit are symbolic.
Russia responded with GPS jamming and glide bombs (KAB series), but bottlenecks remain due to high-precision guidance systems and the supply chain for pilot training.

• Key Point 1: Supremacy is not about “ownership of the airspace” but about the “time competition of the kill chain.”
  Russia’s kill chain is vulnerable in the long-range reconnaissance-identification phase, while Ukraine has compressed the loop using commercial satellites and Western ISR.

• Key Point 2: Ammunition Economy
  Russia’s stockpile of conventional precision ammunition is constrained, leading to a reliance on low-cost drones/cruise missiles for a quantitative response.
  Meanwhile, Ukraine’s development of counter-drone and decoy systems has reduced the effective hit rate of Russian strikes.

• Key Point 3: War Economy
  Russia faces bottlenecks in machine tools, precision bearings, microelectronics, high-energy propellants, and OPTO/RF components due to sanctions.
  Although there is circumvention via third countries, rising unit costs and quality fluctuations undermine practical reliability.
  Concurrent interest rate hikes and fiscal expansion stimulate inflation and increase the cost of defending the ruble.
  Geopolitical risks erode Russia’s potential growth rate and shift costs to the global supply chain.

2024.12—2025.06: The “Price” and Structural Risks of North Korea-Russia Deals

North Korea provides ammunition, rockets, and drones, while receiving from Russia some technology for satellites, missiles, and avionics along with food, energy, and cash.
While short-term survivability improves, two costs rise significantly.

• The Cost of “Technological-Industrial” Bias
  Increased concentration on military production delays the recovery of civilian productivity.
  The foreign currency-earning sector becomes trapped by sanctions, further undermining growth potential.
• Reduction in Diplomatic Leverage
  The greater the dependence on Russia, the more strategic autonomy diminishes, leaving fewer options in negotiations.
  In conclusion, rather than a “sudden collapse,” the diagnosis is of a “sustained vulnerability” marked by accumulated sanctions-dependence and internal decay.
  This condition perpetuates geopolitical risk on the Korean Peninsula, intensifying Korea’s exposure to global economic risks and volatility in interest rates and exchange rates.

2025 Checklist: Policy and Market Critical Points

• Interest Rates
  If the risk of a rebound in inflation in the US and Europe combines with energy and underwater infrastructure risks, the pace of interest rate cuts may slow.
  An increase in long-term interest rates is favorable for defense, space, and energy security investments but poses headwinds for highly leveraged industries.

• Inflation
  Underwater cable incidents, maritime risks in the Middle East/Black Sea, and a surge in power demand from AI data centers will collectively establish a structural floor for core inflation.

• Supply Chains
  RF/power semiconductors, low-earth orbit communication components, optical cables, and satellite ground station equipment will emerge as bottlenecks.
  Companies should respond with multisourcing and an extension of inventory days.

• Geopolitical Risks
  The frequency of exercise/blockade scenarios in the Taiwan Strait, success rates of counter-drone operations in Ukrainian airspace, and the visibility of North Korea-Russia resupply routes are key leading indicators.

AI Trends: Technological Upscaling Driven by the War Economy

• Edge AI and Onboard Models
  Lightweight models in the 7B–13B range are being deployed on drones, UUVs, and UGVs to summarize tactical views directly in the field.
  Reduced reliance on cloud computing makes systems more resilient against delays and jamming.

• Multimodal Targeting
  Fusion of SAR+EO+RF data for target recognition reduces misidentification and increases hit rate per round of ammunition.

• C2 Automation
  The introduction of LLM-based decision-support in command processes allows humans to focus on setting rules and critical thresholds.
  Ensuring accountability (AI governance) is crucial in its implementation.

• Counter-AI
  Adversarial patterns, disruption signals, management of thermal/EM signatures, and decoy generation are now standard parts of training sets.
  Ultimately, it is not a “battle of models” but a contest over “data, spectrum, and power.”

Investment and Strategic Insights: What to Watch and How to Prepare

• Defense/Space/Energy Infrastructure
  Investments in low-earth orbit communications, ground stations, SAR, electronic warfare, directed energy, and power grid reinforcements stand to benefit structurally.

• Semiconductors and Components
  RF, power semiconductors, thermal management materials, high-reliability connectors, satellite terminals, and optical transceivers are the alpha nodes of the supply chain.

• Cyber/OT Security
  A linked defense of underwater cables, data centers, and power OT is necessary.
  Deploy Red Teams/Blue Teams simultaneously in cloud and edge environments.

• Corporate Operations
  Transform geopolitical risks from a cost center into a revenue center.
  Utilize reshoring/friendshoring and secure key components with more than two sources through long-term contracts.
  Hedge financially across scenarios to address volatility in interest rates and exchange rates.

The Unique Perspective of This Article: Points Rarely Addressed Elsewhere

• Supremacy is now redefined by the three elements of “space-spectrum-power.”
• In the unit cost war, the success of defense depends on how much the proportion of soft-kill capability is enhanced.
• Underwater infrastructure risk simultaneously affects financial settlements and the costs of AI data centers, pushing up the inflation floor.
• While China excels in “mass production,” the qualitative gap in prolonged open ocean warfare and integrated ASW/C2 with the US is a decisive factor between the US and China.
• Russia’s bottlenecks in war economy (precision machining and microelectronics) directly curtail the freedom of its aerial operations.

< Summary >

China is optimized for a nearshore Taiwan battlefield but lags behind the US in prolonged open ocean operations and kill-chain integration.
The new battlespace will emerge in LEO space, underwater infrastructure, and the AI drone-counterdrone unit cost war.
Russia’s naval supremacy should be viewed not as a “complete loss” but as a “fierce contest,” with its war economy bottlenecks due to sanctions constraining its operational capabilities.
North Korea-Russia deals aid short-term survival but exacerbate long-term vulnerabilities.
In 2025, markets will witness increased volatility as interest rates, inflation, and supply chains intertwine with geopolitical risks, while sectors such as space, defense, energy, RF/power semiconductors, and OT security will benefit structurally.

[Related Articles…]

• LEO Warfare: The Economics of Space-Cyber Supremacy
• The New Standard in Supply Chain Security Driven by Drone Swarms

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– 무기, 제공권 싹다 잃은 러시아 푸틴은 정말 죽을 지경이다 | 조한범 박사 풀버전2

---

---