● Tesla’s Cheap Trim, Robotaxi Bet Ignites Wall Street
The Paradox of the ‘Budget Tesla’ That Disappointed Everyone, Why Wall Street Interpreted It as a Positive, and the Real Signal Sent by the FSD 14.1 Update
Key Takeaways From This Article
It explores why the downgrade in the specifications of the budget Model 3/Y is not merely cost reduction, but a ‘capital efficiency’ measure for transitioning to robo-taxi operations.
It summarizes why the on-road changes in FSD 14.1 are a preview for the real-world robo-taxi routine and what has changed in response to parking, charging stations, and intersections.
It quantifies the structural reasons in accounting/valuation that lead Wall Street to view the declining car margins positively, including changes in the energy business and regulatory credits.
It also examines how global economic factors (interest rates and inflation) affect Tesla’s total cost of ownership and demand elasticity, alongside risks and opportunities in tech stocks.
It provides a checklist of immediate practical points for owners, consumers, and investors.
1) Budget Model 3/Y: The Intent Behind the Downgraded Specifications and What Matters More than ‘Price’
Although the price range was proposed in the upper $30,000s, the removal of features like a glass roof, premium sound, and some convenience options sparked debates over the perceived value.
After the $7,500 IRA tax credit ended, Tesla chose a ‘gap-filling’ strategy by reducing hardware costs to cushion the impact on monthly payments.
The simplification of the Autopilot/driver assistance package holds significance beyond cost reduction. It is intended to standardize vehicles as terminal nodes on the ‘AI software platform’ for the robo-taxi transition.
Wall Street views this lineup not as a driver of explosive new demand, but as a ‘fleet maintenance mechanism’ that cushions delivery volatility and consistently supplies FSD training data.
The key perspective is whether to maintain a virtuous cycle of ‘data-learning-product improvement’ over immediate margins. This is because growth option value carries greater weight in the valuation of tech stocks.
2) Why Wall Street Reads It as a ‘Positive’: Focusing on Robo-taxi and AI Rather Than Cars
In the current intrinsic value of the stock, the automotive business share is gradually diminishing, while the option value of robo-taxi, FSD, and energy is expanding.
Although the budget model may cut short-term margins, it boosts the long-term lifetime value (LTV) of FSD subscriptions/sales and maintains fleet size to enhance training data.
As auto profitability wavers due to the phasing out of regulatory credits and inflationary pressures, the expanding share of high-margin energy storage and software revenue positively affects valuation.
How cash is deployed is crucial. Investing in learning/inference compute, labeling, and data pipelines yields a higher return on invested capital (ROIC) compared to expanding production capacity.
In other words, this is seen not as ‘budget = negative’ but as ‘capital reallocation = positive.’ The more stringent automotive financing becomes due to global economic factors (interest rates, inflation), the more persuasive this transition logic becomes.
3) FSD 14.1, Key Technical Points: The Start of Human-like ‘Contextual Driving’
The speed profile has changed. In ‘rush mode’, it simultaneously calculates the leading car, pedestrians, and lane flow to adjust speed immediately, giving a perception that overtaking/merging timing feels as natural as a human’s.
Parking intelligence has improved significantly. After arriving at a destination, the continuous process of circling in the parking lot, searching for a spot, entering, angle adjustment, and alignment is smooth, and it autonomously finds and reversely parks into a charging station slot.
At intersections, it distinguishes legal and safety criteria when the signal changes. Even if it has already entered an intersection, it is observed to ‘legally optimize’ by backing up behind the stop line to reset if retreating is rational.
There are still bugs. Mistaking reflections for emergency vehicles, indicator malfunctions, navigation deviations, and misinterpreting the Supercharger exit are among them. However, the overall smoothness and confident driving have significantly improved compared to previous versions.
The key is the first step of ‘understanding the surrounding context.’ This suggests that the integration of motion forecasting/planning, which converts all road movements into predictive curves, has been enhanced.
4) The Hidden Intent of 14.1: A Pilot of the Real-World Robo-taxi Routine
Robo-taxis must automate not just point-to-point (A→B) movement, but the entire journey including selecting drop-off locations, temporary stops, parking lot navigation, and approaching charging slots.
14.1 appears to signal the introduction of a training curriculum that deals with the uncertainties in the final segment (last 50 meters). It is training the ability to handle atypical spaces such as parking lots, charging stations, and commercial area drop-offs.
It also clearly indicates a shift from map reliance to real-time vision-based understanding. This aligns with favorable AI trends in terms of global scalability, regulatory response, and cost.
In conclusion, 14.1 is an on-road test verifying the “operational feasibility” of robo-taxis, serving as a stepping stone to accelerate the cycle of data collection, learning, and deployment.
5) Business Positioning in Numbers: Energy and Software to Fill the Automotive Gap
Vehicle deliveries will inevitably face short-term adjustments as a rebound effect from the expiration of tax credits. Wall Street has already factored in the possibility of a drop in quarterly deliveries.
The energy storage business, though its revenue share is still low, is the area where profit share is growing rapidly. Its growth remains robust even in a high interest rate environment due to diversified project financing.
FSD combines one-time sales and subscription revenue, with the revenue from unlocked functions deferred to provide performance cushioning. As the training speed increases, expansion in ARPU and customer capture is anticipated.
The key point is the ‘margin mix.’ A structure must be established where the declining automotive margins are offset by high margins in energy and software to maintain the premium for tech stocks.
6) Global Economic Factors: Interest Rates, Inflation, and TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)
High interest rates push up monthly payments on leases/installments, dampening the demand for electric vehicles. While the use of budget models helps mitigate this impact, it cannot entirely offset it.
Once inflation subsides and interest rates begin to drop, battery costs, logistics, and capital expenses will all ease simultaneously, rapidly restoring the TCO competitiveness of EVs.
If the expansion of charging infrastructure and the optimization of energy pricing are pursued in tandem, the reduction in fuel costs will increase again, and the value of subscription-based software will concurrently rise.
Thus, a ‘dual strategy’ of focusing on data and AI investments when macro conditions are unfavorable, and maximizing returns through hardware-software bundles when conditions ease, is effective.
This trend aligns with the overall tech stock and AI re-rating timing. The trajectory of global economic interest rates will be key to valuation over the next 12 months.
7) Checklist for Owners, Consumers, and Investors
Consumers/Owners
- When buying a used vehicle, verifying whether it has HW4 should be the top priority. HW3 carries a higher risk of depreciation in FSD advancement.
- For budget models, despite the removal of aesthetic features, a software-centric value judgment is necessary if FSD performance is important.
- Recalculate the monthly cost based on the TCO, which includes insurance, charging costs, and depreciation, while also factoring in interest rate sensitivity.
Investors - Pay attention to quality metrics such as active FSD subscribers, urban coverage, and the rate of parking/charging automation rather than just quarterly deliveries.
- The volume of energy storage installations, backlog, and project profit margins serve as leading indicators for margin mix improvement.
- Investments in compute (learning/inference) and the speed of data pipelines determine ROIC. Check the capital allocation commentary.
Policy/Regulation - ‘Legal optimizations’ such as backing up at intersections set important precedents for insurance and liability issues. Monitor changes in regulatory guidelines.
8) A One-Line Reinterpretation of This Issue
The loss of aesthetic features in the budget model is essentially a transition cost for realigning capital and products towards ‘AI-first,’ and FSD 14.1 serves as a rehearsal of robo-taxi operational capabilities that will convert that cost into future cash flows.
< Summary >
The budget Model 3/Y strategy aims to fill the gap left by the expiration of tax credits while maintaining fleet size and the FSD data ecosystem.
Wall Street views the option value of robo-taxi/FSD/energy as more significant than declining automotive margins, interpreting the reallocation of capital to AI and compute as a positive development.
FSD 14.1 enhances ‘contextual understanding’ in speed, parking, charging stations, and intersections, exhibiting a pilot nature for everyday robo-taxi routines.
Global economic trends in interest rates and inflation are crucial to EV TCO and demand elasticity, with hardware-software bundles providing leverage during easing phases.
The checklist includes verifying HW4, recalculating the TCO, monitoring FSD quality metrics/energy installations, and tracking changes in regulatory and insurance frameworks.
[Related Articles…]
Robo-taxi Regulatory Easing Signal? 2025 Mobility Policy Checkpoints
Interest Rate Transition: A Crucial Turning Point for EV TCO and Tech Stock Valuations
*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]
– 모두가 실망한 저가형 테슬라… 하지만 월가는 ‘호재’라 말한다! FSD 14.1까지 공개된 진짜 이유는?
● Tesla FSD v14.1 unleashes humanlike driving, parking revolution, retail windfall
Tesla FSD v14.1 Complete Analysis: From “Drive-Thru, Reverse, Emergency Vehicles, Parking Towers, Vanish” to Emerging Economic Opportunities
Key Points Included in This Article
Tesla FSD v14.1 is summarized by situations in which it newly enables capabilities on real roads.
It demonstrates how “social driving” such as drive-thru waiting, parking tower access, and responses to police and ambulances have changed.
It explains why the transition to end-to-end learning has dramatically improved performance compared to the previous rule-based approach.
It details why the Vanish (Reverse Summon type) feature is only now moving into practical use and proposes a user flow.
It forecasts the economic ripple effects of how resolving Costco-level parking difficulties will transform urban “parking economics” and retail operations.
It highlights unresolved limitations along with detailed safety and regulatory issues, and it suggests points to watch in v14.2~14.3.
It connects keywords such as global economy, artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, Fourth Industrial Revolution, and electric vehicles to investment and industrial implications.
Core Evolution: The Reproduction of ‘Human-Like Driving’ Achieved by the End-to-End Stack
The essence of v14.1 is not stacking rules but rather transitioning to an end-to-end learning approach that trains a single neural network from camera input to steering and acceleration/deceleration.
This method enables continuous control that “comprehends the situation and acts according to the intent,” ultimately producing outputs that closely resemble the fine adjustments made by human drivers.
There is a noticeable improvement in “context-dependent behaviors” such as yielding in narrow alleys with reverse maneuvers, natural reverse for signal realignment, and waiting in drive-thrus.
The previous rule-based system, which exhibited sudden braking and unnecessary stops, now shows refined speed control and patterns that can be read as “polite driving.”
Although these observations are based on user video rather than standardized benchmark metrics, a consistent trend in behavior change has been reported across various cities and parking environments.
Performance by Situation: Actions Actually Displayed by v14.1
-
Cooperative driving in narrow alleys and reverse transitions
It quickly and smoothly reverses to yield for an oncoming vehicle and then returns to its lane.
The key is processing “yield intent recognition → reverse selection → lane return” as one continuous action based on contextual judgment. -
Repositioning while waiting at a traffic signal
When waiting for a left turn and the signal changes, it checks for the absence of vehicles behind, then slowly reverses to reposition accurately.
It closely mimics the speed and gap of a human driver’s “non-embarrassing reverse” maneuver. -
Fine-tuning speed in exceptional overtaking situations
Observing a vehicle briefly entering the opposing lane, it reduces speed by only about 3mph while assessing the situation.
It avoids unnecessary hard braking and maintains a “social safety” zone that facilitates mutual prediction. -
Drive-Thru interaction
It accurately identifies the order pickup point, and even when there is ample gap with the vehicle ahead, it remains stationary until the order is completed.
The stop-and-go timing during the payment and collection phases aligns closely with habitual human patterns. -
Emergency vehicle response (police and ambulance)
Upon detecting the visual and auditory cues of sirens and flashing lights, it moves to the road’s shoulder, comes to a complete stop, and resumes only after confirming that subsequent emergency vehicles have passed.
It does not only yield to a single vehicle but waits for entire convoys, thus aligning with actual road practices. -
Parking tower access and vacant spot search
It sequentially performs processes such as halting at ticket/card terminal locations, ramp traversal, high-rise vacant spot detection, and recognizing departure waiting lines.
Improvements in occupancy estimation and precise control of ramp curvature in tight spaces have enhanced planning quality in limited visibility conditions. -
Unprotected left turn (Chuck Cook style)
It maneuvers away from the central barrier to secure clear visibility, assesses oncoming left-turning traffic, seizes the opportunity, and then completes the left turn in one go.
It utilizes both predictive analysis of oncoming vehicles’ intentions and a strategy to minimize its own exposure. -
Response to construction site hand signals
Multiple instances have been observed in which it recognizes and complies with the hand signals from traffic controllers.
Its ability to interpret informal gestures has improved, reducing reliance on road signs. -
Costco-level challenging parking
It completes precise parking in one maneuver after scanning for a vacant space, taking into account intersecting and pedestrian-crossing traffic in a congested, confined area.
The vehicle’s position and speed profile remain stable even in crowded and narrow environments. -
Known issue: Selecting a malfunctioning Supercharger stall
Although the parking and alignment processes are accurate, there have been cases where it selects a malfunctioning charging station.
The integration of mapping and real-time facility status data remains incomplete, suggesting substantial room for software improvement in the near term.
Why Vanish/Reverse Summon is Now Feasible and the Recommended User Flow
Previously, Reverse Summon (commonly known as Vanish) held little practical value due to parking failures and inefficiencies.
With v14.1’s improvements in vacancy search, social driving, and precise alignment, the notion that “once you get out, the car will find an appropriate parking spot on its own” has become realistic.
The recommended user flow is: Stop at the drop-off point → exit the vehicle → execute Vanish → after shopping, call Smart Summon.
This reduces dwell time at retail entrances, decreases pedestrian movement and exit parking stress, and enhances perceived productivity.
However, note that access and parking may be restricted by local regulations and facility policies, so regional guidelines must be verified.
Why Such Changes Occurred: A Technological Perspective Reinterpreted
End-to-end learning corrects behavior through data rather than by patching rules or weights.
The effect of acquiring large-scale driving data to learn “social traffic norms” that are difficult to design rules for—such as drive-thru waiting, hand signal interpretation, and exceptional overtaking—is significant.
The fusion of visual and auditory inputs enhances the detection of sirens and flashing lights, while occupancy and flow estimation improve planning in limited-visibility environments.
The key is that the model has learned to “stop when it should stop and wait when it should wait,” exhibiting a kind of calm demeanor.
This calmness reduces unnecessary abrupt acceleration and deceleration, creating a virtuous cycle that simultaneously improves energy efficiency and ride comfort.
Safety, Limitations, and Regulatory Checklist
The current release is supervisory autonomous driving, and driver supervision is mandatory; legal responsibility remains with the driver.
There remain possibilities for misinterpretation, such as selecting a malfunctioning charger, inadequately marked temporary control zones, and errors in severe weather, backlight, or nighttime glare conditions.
Some commercial facilities may restrict unmanned parking, and security/insurance terms may vary by region.
When using Vanish/Summon, it is essential to check the surroundings as pedestrians or carts might suddenly appear from non-visible areas.
Performance may vary depending on differences in software version and the update status of regional map data.
Business and Global Economic Ripple Effects
If order wait times and retrieval actions in drive-thru settings at fast food and retail outlets become more predictable, throughput will improve.
Costco-level parking efficiency may establish a standard process such as “entrance drop-off → remote parking → summoned exit,” thereby reducing parking circulation and traffic congestion.
A reduction in the “parking search time” within urban parking lots can trigger changes in turnover rates, pricing policies, and space design, transforming commercial real estate operating models.
Insurance models could evolve as changes in accident frequency and severity distribution promote driver-supervised discounts and autonomous-driving-linked rate structures.
The vehicle’s smooth acceleration and deceleration reduce battery and tire wear, lowering the total cost of ownership (TCO) and accelerating electric vehicle adoption.
The demand for enhanced computational power, driven by large-scale data training, will increase investments in semiconductors and cloud services, thereby creating opportunities in the Fourth Industrial Revolution value chain.
At the national level, regulatory frameworks for autonomous driving and artificial intelligence will be refined, strengthening the innovation framework aligned with global economic competitiveness.
Investment and Industry Watch Points (v14.2~14.3)
Watch for the formalization and UI improvements of Vanish, and see if the “parking area → remote parking” scenario opens across all regions through partnerships with parking facilities.
Monitor whether map and metadata integration accelerates, such as effective avoidance of malfunctioning facilities and integration of real-time facility status data.
Key safety indicators include reduced false positives in emergency vehicle and hand signal recognition and consistent performance in adverse weather conditions.
Track how changes in FSD subscription and bundle policies affect demand elasticity, especially when combined with electric vehicle penetration.
Developments in regulatory dialogues and homogenization in Europe and Asia will serve as turning points for global expansion.
Practical Tips and Checklist for Usage
After the update, drive sufficiently until camera recalibration is complete and routinely check for sensor contamination or foreign debris.
Ensure proper siren detection by verifying the audio input settings, and consider the differences in detection that may arise from open or closed windows and noisy environments.
When testing drive-thru or parking tower scenarios, start during off-peak hours to understand the vehicle’s behavior and learn how to interact with surrounding drivers.
Do not overuse Vanish/Summon during times of high pedestrian density; first, become familiar with it in open areas with clear visibility.
When using Superchargers, personally verify the stall status displayed on the screen/app to avoid selecting malfunctioning facilities.
< Summary >
v14.1 demonstrates a significant leap in scenarios requiring “social driving” thanks to enhanced end-to-end learning.
It reproduces human-like contextual judgment in drive-thru waiting, emergency vehicle responses, and parking tower/Costco-level parking scenarios.
These advances expedite the practical use of Vanish/Reverse Summon and produce ripple effects across the global economy, impacting retail, parking, insurance, and semiconductors.
Although it remains under supervisory control with some limitations in facility status detection, attention should be focused on the integration and safety improvements expected in v14.2~14.3.
[Related Articles…]
Tesla Robo-Taxi Economics: Revenue Models and Changes in Urban Cost Structures
The Essence of End-to-End Autonomous Driving: Data Network Effects and Learning Scalability
*Source: [ 허니잼의 테슬라와 일론 ]
– 정말 미쳤습니다…태슬라 V14, 직접 보고 판단하세요! 앞으로는 ‘배니쉬’마저 사용이 가능해진다!
● Gold blasts past 4000, silver near record, Fed signals two cuts, liquidity and safe haven frenzy
[Immediate Analysis] Gold Breaks $4,000; Silver Nears All-Time High; FOMC Hints at “At Least 2 Rate Cuts”; Rally in Liquidity and Safe-Haven Assets Amid Shutdown Uncertainty
This article condenses the key points: the ‘real reason’ behind gold reaching $4,000, the structural upside in silver prices, the implication behind the FOMC’s 2–3 rate cuts, the simultaneous fiscal and monetary easing sparked by a potential shutdown, the internal mechanisms behind the rapid fluctuations of the USD/KRW exchange rate, the new correlation with Bitcoin, and the checklist for Powell’s remarks tonight.
In particular, it provides a detailed explanation of the spot-futures discrepancy of gold and silver—often overlooked elsewhere—the quantitative effects of central banks’ net buying and the Asia premium, the Treasury issuance calendar’s impact on liquidity, and the turning point signals in real interest rates.
It systematically organizes the trends as five key pillars penetrating the global economy: rate cuts, inflation, liquidity, recession, and the dollar.
1) Market at a Glance
Gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce, and silver is on the verge of challenging its all-time high once again.
The FOMC minutes have left open the possibility of at least two, and for some, three rate cuts by year-end.
The prolonged risk of a federal government shutdown is simultaneously triggering a demand shock and policy easing (both fiscal and monetary).
The 10-year yield is trending lower, and with falling real interest rates, the preference for safe-haven assets is increasing.
The USD/KRW exchange rate is experiencing increased volatility due to external uncertainties and dollar liquidity factors.
2) Decoding the FOMC Minutes: The Implication Behind “At Least 2 Rate Cuts”
More important than the surface message is the growing discomfort with the “threshold of tightening.”
Many members are increasingly concerned with slowing employment and weakening demand, suggesting an intention to preemptively ease policy to reduce recession risks.
If the dot plot’s upper bound has come down and its lower bound has opened up, it implies a leftward shift in the policy reaction function.
The key criteria are the “persistence” of inflation deceleration and the “magnitude” of the cooling in employment.
When real interest rates fall rapidly, the beta of liquidity-sensitive assets like gold, growth stocks, and crypto increases.
3) Economic Pathways of a Shutdown: Catalyst for Simultaneous Fiscal and Monetary Easing
The longer a shutdown lasts, the clearer become the signals of real economic slowdown through delayed government spending, reduced consumption, and employment uncertainty.
The greater the shock to growth, the more incentive there is for monetary policy to advance both the timing and pace of rate cuts.
If the Treasury’s issuance strategy is skewed towards short-term securities, funds may flow out of the RRP via money markets, increasing liquidity.
If there is an increase in long-term issuances, the duration burden could push up the upper end of interest rates; however, Fed communication may offset this effect.
In conclusion, when the combination of “fiscal expansion + rate cuts (or slight adjustments in QT)” emerges, overall liquidity increases.
4) The Real Driving Force Behind $4,000 Gold: Liquidity + Safe-Haven Appeal + Structural Demand
Firstly, falling real interest rates reduce gold’s discount rate, pushing its price higher.
Secondly, geopolitical risks and shutdown uncertainties enhance the preference for safe-haven assets.
Thirdly, net buying by central banks (especially in emerging markets) and the Asia spot premium intensify spot market tightening.
Fourthly, banking regulations (such as NSFR) have reduced the incentive for gold carry trades (leverage), and the narrowing of the futures-spot arbitrage sustains the upward trend.
Fifthly, if the physical flows into ETFs offset the contango burden of the futures curve, the rally’s sustainability increases.
The key point is a perspective shift: it’s not that gold is rising, but that the value of money is declining.
5) The Upside for Silver: Structural Tightness Driven by Industrial Demand
Silver possesses both a safe-haven character and the qualities of an industrial metal.
The cumulative expansion of solar installations and the trend of higher content in power electronics and automotive components drive real demand.
Expansion of AI data centers boosts investments in power infrastructure, stimulating silver’s conductive demand.
With delays in new mining investments and rigidity in scrap recovery, increasing supply in the short term is challenging.
Compared to gold, its higher sensitivity (beta) allows silver to react more resiliently in a liquidity-driven market.
6) Resetting the Correlation with Bitcoin
During periods of high liquidity, the “digital gold” narrative is reinforced, and both gold and Bitcoin may experience simultaneous strength.
However, micro factors such as regulatory news, exchange liquidity, and funding rates can increase volatility, making position management crucial.
Periods of falling real interest rates and a weak dollar typically stimulate risk appetite in the crypto market.
7) USD/KRW Exchange Rate Volatility: Why Has It Increased?
Risks from slowing international trade, increasing caution between the US and China, and policy event uncertainties are simultaneously at play.
The absorption and supply routes of dollar liquidity have become more sensitive to Treasury issuances and changes in RRP balances.
Given its status as an export-sensitive currency, renewed concerns about a global recession can intensify pressure for a weaker won.
While the Bank of Korea’s interest rate stance and verbal interventions could buffer some volatility, sharp fluctuations remain possible.
8) Powell’s Checklist for Tonight
Check whether the language regarding employment shifts from “balanced” to “concerning.”
Observe whether the tone on inflation indicates it is “sustaining progress” or remains “uncertain.”
Look for signals on whether “more data” is required for rate cuts or if “ample data” has been gathered.
Mentions of fine-tuning QT or SRF (standing repurchase facility) directly affect short-term liquidity.
It is also crucial to note if there are any references to how fiscal/shutdown comments might affect the monetary policy path.
9) Positioning Strategy Suggestions (Not Investment Advice)
Gold: A staggered approach is more rational than chasing.
Consider a mix of physical gold and ETFs, taking into account the cost of rolling futures.
Silver: Although the potential rewards per volatility are high, set clear stop-loss criteria.
Bonds: If falling real interest rates persist, the defensive nature of medium-to-long-term duration becomes effective.
Stocks: Opportunities will arise in liquidity-sensitive growth stocks and in the AI supply chain (semiconductors, power equipment, copper foil, thermal management).
Won-denominated assets: Diversify your hedging ratios based on different scenarios.
Crypto: I recommend a dual-track, core-tactical approach within your volatility budget.
10) Observation Points Rarely Discussed Elsewhere
If the gap between the Asia spot premium and Western futures curves widens, it can lead to a qualitatively stronger rally.
The Treasury issuance schedule and changes in RRP balances are the “real cockpit” of liquidity.
Re-entering the zero line in real interest rates could signal a simultaneous rally in gold and growth stocks.
A delayed supply response in silver can extend the cycle and prolong the time it takes to reach its peak.
11) Risk Assessment
A re-heating of inflation could delay the path toward rate cuts.
Sudden geopolitical easing could diminish the safe-haven premium.
A sudden resurgence in the dollar’s strength may adversely affect commodities and emerging markets.
A hawkish surprise from Powell could trigger a short-term pullback.
12) Data Calendar Points
The trend in employment and wage indicators slowing down is key for rate cut bets.
The sustained deceleration in services prices as indicated by PCE and CPI must be confirmed.
The Treasury’s quarterly refinancing and issuance maturity structure will alter the liquidity map.
Conclusion: A Rally in “Liquidity + Safe-Haven Assets”
Expectations for rate cuts, shutdown risks, and signals of expanding liquidity are converging, driving simultaneous strength in gold, silver, and growth assets.
However, adjustments during volatile periods are inevitable, so managing opportunity costs through cash allocation and staggered/hedging strategies is key.
< Summary >
The FOMC hinted at at least two rate cuts, and shutdown uncertainties are stimulating simultaneous fiscal and monetary easing.
Falling real interest rates coupled with a preference for safe-haven assets have led to gold reaching $4,000 and silver nearing its all-time high.
In a liquidity-driven phase, while gold, silver, growth stocks, and Bitcoin may increase their beta, it is essential to concurrently manage the risks associated with heightened USD/KRW volatility and Powell’s remarks.
[Related Articles…]
Signals at the Peak of the Gold Cycle and Conditions for the Next Level-Up
Deciphering the Liquidity Wave: How Treasury Issuance and RRP Drive the Market
*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]
– [속보] 금값 4,000달러 돌파, 은값 최고가 근접. FOMC 성명서 : 최소 두차례 금리 인하 가능하다. 유동성과 안전자산 선호현상(셧다운 등의 불확실성) [즉시분석]
