● Trump-Pharma Mega-Deal Ignites Healthcare-Biotech Breakout

Trump-Pharma ‘Big Deal’ Scenario, Is It a Signal for Healthcare & Bio to Escape Neglect?

With only three months left this year, my article contains five components.
The actual content and impact pathway of the policy big deal.
Q4 investment strategy and stock group roadmap.
Global macro variables (interest rates, dollar index, U.S. stocks) and sector correlations.
The practical revenue model of how the AI trend affects the healthcare value chain.
Key risks and hidden beneficiary points that other media rarely cover.

[News Summary] Policy-Market Breaking Briefing

The possibility of a pharma big deal that bundles “drug pricing, factory investment, and PBM reform” has resurfaced in U.S. politics.
Market consensus expects that easing drug pricing regulations and expanding reshoring incentives could lead to a re-rating of large pharma, CDMOs, and some generics.
In contrast, PBM margins are likely to face continued structural pressure, and managed care organizations (MCOs) could experience significant earnings volatility depending on policy direction.
If interest rates and the dollar index remain range-bound at high levels, defensive healthcare may regain relative strength against the index.
The use of AI, as it reduces costs throughout clinical development, manufacturing, and sales, is shifting premiums toward companies with “high AI applicability.”

1) The Substance of the ‘Big Deal’: What Is on the Table

The core pillars are three.

• Drug pricing system: Reducing the scope or adjusting the implementation speed of Medicare drug price negotiation (IRA).
• Supply chain & manufacturing: Tax credits and subsidies for reshoring raw materials (API) and sterile injectables.
• Distribution & PBM: Transparency in rebates, prohibition of spread pricing, and transition to a pass-through model.

Additional issues are as follows.

• Change in the tone of M&A review: Favorability toward pipeline-strengthening acquisitions can bring a premium to small/mid-cap biotech.
• Regulatory predictability: Clear FDA guidance and stronger adherence to PDUFA timelines.
• Tax: Reintroducing incentives for repatriating overseas cash could expand the capacity for share buybacks and dividends.

The policy is a ‘scenario’ and not a certainty.
Therefore, a probability-weighted approach is important.

2) Roadmap of Winners and Losers by Sector

Large Pharma (Pharma): Easing drug pricing pressures and the inflow of cash could lead to upward revisions of multiples.
Particularly advantageous for companies with immunotherapy, oncology, and metabolic disease portfolios.
Small/Mid Biotech: A resumption of M&A activity and expanded collaborations could trigger a bear market rally.
Focus on those with a cash runway of more than 24 months and catalysts (PDUFA or top-line Phase 3 data) expected within 12 months.
CDMO & Equipment Providers: Beneficiaries of reshoring and the resolution of injectable bottlenecks.
Companies with capabilities in aseptic fill-finish and lyophilization hold a relative advantage.
PBM: Structural margin pressures due to reduced rebates and spread compression.
Shifting to a fee-based pass-through model and leveraging specialty pharmacy capabilities are defensive points.
Managed Care Organizations (MCOs): Sensitive to changes in drug pricing and premium formulas.
A cautious approach is advised for increasing Q4 weighting.
Generics & Biosimilars: If distribution transparency and procurement incentives align, a chain rebound is possible.
However, the risk of intensified price competition remains.
Medtech: Sensitive to interest rates but, if procedural volumes remain steady, selective responses are warranted.

3) Macro Environment Checklist: Global Economic Outlook and Linkages

Interest Rates: When real rates are near their peak, growth stocks become volatile while defensive and cash flow sectors show relative strength.
Healthcare is a sector that can generate alpha against the benchmark in this range.
Dollar Index: A strong dollar is a headwind for large pharma with high overseas sales but favorable for stabilizing import costs.
U.S. Stock Indices: When the AI infrastructure-led market fatigue sets in, style rotation might shift toward healthcare.
Economic Path: In a slow-play inflation scenario that avoids a recession, the rationale for increasing healthcare weight strengthens.

4) Q4 Investment Strategy: Tactical Positioning Guide

Barbell Strategy:

• On one side, a core position in large pharma with strong dividend and share buyback capacity.
• On the other side, high-quality SMID biotech with catalysts (verify cash, data, and partnerships).

Step-In Approach:

• Gradually accumulate around policy events and FDA schedule dates.
• Set up partial sell-off and re-entry rules to cope with volatility before and after clinical or regulatory data disclosures.

Risk Hedge:

• Reduce tactical exposure if interest rates break above resistance.
• If credit spreads widen, shift within healthcare toward stocks with more visible cash flows.

5) Data Calendar: Catalysts and Checkpoints for Three Months

PDUFA and priority review deadlines.
Major conferences (ESMO, ASH) where clinical data is disclosed.
GLP-1 production expansion and supply guidance.
State and federal regulatory announcements concerning PBM.
M&A/licensing deal disclosure season.
Prepare for increased volatility if schedules overlap among these stock groups.

6) AI Trend: How It Connects to Healthcare Revenue Models

Drug Discovery: Combining generative AI and protein structure prediction to shorten target identification and lead optimization timelines.
The practical KPIs are “cost per molecule” and “time to IND.”
Clinical & RWE: Using electronic health records (EHR), wearable, and insurance claims data for virtual control arms and protocol optimization.
Regulatory acceptance is gradually expanding, with data quality and bias control being critical.
Manufacturing & Quality: Process optimization, prediction of batch failures, and accelerated scale-up speeds.
Particularly for sterile injectables, AI-based real-time quality control could improve yields.
Sales & Marketing: Cost reductions through LLM-based physician segmentation and omnichannel optimization.
Competence in data privacy and regulatory compliance becomes a barrier to entry.

The investment focus is on identifying companies that convert “AI into business performance” through data, computing, and governance—not merely on possessing an “AI model.”

7) Valuation & Supply-Demand: Why Can Healthcare Escape Neglect?

Large pharma’s P/E is in a discount range relative to the long-term average, while cash flows and dividends remain robust.
SMID biotech, as reflected in the XBI, is attempting to rebound from long-term lows, but selective approaches are essential.
From a supply-demand perspective, if the concentration in AI mega-cap stocks eases, a rotation toward defensive, cash flow-oriented healthcare stories is highly likely.

8) Risk Map: Pitfalls to Be Aware Of

Policy Uncertainty: The big deal might be partially concluded or delayed.
Legal Risks: An increase in lawsuits regarding regulatory authority could lead to delays or sudden changes in approvals.
Headwinds from Price Regulation: Easing drug pricing could lead to higher insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs, sparking political backlash.
Supply Chain: API reshoring involves initial CapEx and carries quality risks.
Financing: Persistently high interest rates pose dilution risks for cash-burning biotech companies.

9) Key Points Rarely Covered by Other Media

Resurgence of the Medical CPI Scenario: Reducing the scope of drug price negotiation could increase the contribution of medical costs to headline inflation, potentially triggering headwinds for the interest rate trajectory.
Ultimately, simultaneous occurrences of a strong healthcare sector and overall market valuation compression mean that a hybrid strategy of long positions within the sector along with index and credit hedges is rational.
Second-order Effects of PBM Unbundling: Increased adoption of generics and biosimilars might structurally boost demand for specialty pharmacies and cold chain logistics.
The hidden beneficiaries are CDMOs and specialty logistics/packaging companies.
Accounting Treatment of AI Costs: Some pharma companies may recognize large model training costs as operating expenses, showing a short-term decline in margins.
However, if the efficiency improvements in clinical and manufacturing become evident, multiples could potentially expand.

10) Execution Checklist: At the Stock and Portfolio Levels

• Check cash and debt maturity profiles, and assess interest rate sensitivity.
• Review catalysts expected within 12 months, their probability of success, and the existence of partnerships.
• Evaluate the maturity of the AI/data stack and the capacity for security and regulatory response.
• Verify whether there is diversification in the supply chain and manufacturing capabilities (especially for sterile injectables).
• Review dividend/share buyback policies and M&A drivers.

Conclusion

Even if the big deal is not fully concluded, once the direction is clear, the re-rating of healthcare and biotech could commence.
For Q4, a barbell strategy combining a large pharma core with catalyst-driven SMID biotech is effective, while PBM and MCO should be approached conservatively, and a selective weight increase for CDMO and specialty chains is reasonable.
From a global economic perspective, if interest rates and the dollar index remain at high levels, healthcare is a strong candidate for benefiting from style rotations within U.S. stocks.
Artificial intelligence moves multiples when “cost reduction and speed improvements” translate into performance gains.
Focus on where policy, data, and cash flow intersect.

< Summary >The core of Q4 centers on the direction of the policy big deal, the high-level movements of interest rates and the dollar index, and the performance contribution of AI.
A barbell strategy with a core in large pharma and catalyst-driven SMID biotech is valid, while PBM and MCO should be approached conservatively.
CDMOs and specialty chains are hidden beneficiaries of reshoring and increased adoption.
Manage policy uncertainty and interest rate risks with index and credit hedging.

[Related Articles…]

• A Map of the True Beneficiaries in Bio Reshoring
• Reevaluation of Valuations for Healthcare AI-Adopting Companies

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– 트럼프와 빅딜 맺은 제약주들, 올해 최악 소외주에서 벗어날까(헬스케어, 바이오)

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● AI Liquidity Mania, IPO Frenzy, Bubble Alert

Liquidity Market, Dangerous Signals are Coming: 2025 Global Economic Outlook and Key Checklist for AI Trends

This article covers the interpretation of the valuation gap between Korea and the US, the three phases of liquidity markets and high-point warnings, the actual impact of the AI revolution on the economy and profitability, Korea’s policy risks and capital outflows, as well as a 5-year investment roadmap and portfolio guide.

In particular, it separately summarizes the ‘key triggering factors’ such as IPO gateways, liquidity flooding, and power grid bottlenecks that are not well covered by other news outlets.

News Summary: The Points You Must Know in Today’s Market

Bubbles repeat, and corrections are inevitable.

The valuation gap between Korean and US stocks is enormous.

Even if a recession occurs, the United States, driven by the AI revolution, is likely to experience only a short correction.

The expansion of overseas investments by domestic companies, along with regulatory and taxation burdens, may lead to a slowdown in new domestic investments, thereby weakening jobs and consumption.

The government is structurally entangled with real estate, limiting its policy flexibility; however, if capital market system improvements accompany reforms, the shock absorption capacity could be high.

Gold remains the ultimate insurance asset, and during periods of sharp stock declines, a ‘correlation reversal’ effect is confirmed.

The investment principles can be summarized as no all-ins, holding assets with inverse correlation, and learning from financial and economic history.

The Three Phases of the Liquidity Market and Our Current Position

Phase 1 (Hedging/Rebalancing): Institutions normalize their risk asset ratios and purchase at low prices.

Phase 2 (Value): Improved performance and cash flows coincide with re-rating.

Phase 3 (Momentum): Story, theme, and options flows drive up prices while volatility surges.

We are currently in the transition from phase 2 to phase 3, with individual stock fluctuations and theme concentration intensifying.

Three signals to watch for are an overheated IPO gateway, the proliferation of the ‘account verification’ narrative rally, and a rekindling of inflation.

What the Valuation Gap between Korea and the US Tells Us

The United States shows historically high PBR and PER, reflecting the innovation led by AI and the expectation of excess profits.

Korea has a PBR of around 1, close to its historical average, but discount factors include low ROE and risks in corporate governance.

The key is not the ‘room to rise’ but the ‘sustainability.’

The US may have support from the productivity cycle, whereas in Korea, without improvements in systems, taxation, and corporate governance, the sustainability of re-rating is weak.

Policy and Institutional Risks: A Structure Where Capital is Fleeing

The capital gains tax standards for major shareholders, dividend taxation, comprehensive taxation on financial income, and inheritance/gift taxes directly influence the residency and investment decisions of high-net-worth individuals.

Capital movements that avoid taxes and regulations toward places like Singapore weaken domestic investment and potential employment.

Practices of preferential corporate governance under the guise of ‘responsible management’ erode the rights of minority shareholders, cementing a stock discount.

The necessary measures include regular dividend payouts and share repurchases, strengthening class-action lawsuits and stewardship, tax incentives for long-term investments, and simplification of the taxation of capital markets.

From Real Estate to Stocks: Money Moves – Reality and Limitations

VVIPs (with liquidity of 10 billion won or more) have a strong incentive to increase the proportion of stocks and overseas assets due to the ‘quality gap’ of high-end domestic real estate and tax issues.

However, large-scale capital movements by the general public are likely to be gradual, and in real estate, polarization around prime locations is expected to continue.

Impact of AI Trends on Macroeconomics and Performance

In the short term, there will be a surge in investments in data centers, semiconductors, and power infrastructure, leading to growth driven by capital expenditure and increased capital intensity.

In the mid-term, corporate operational automation could improve productivity, enhancing margins and cash flow resilience.

On the other hand, the surge in demand for power grids, cooling, power semiconductors, and materials might trigger energy and raw material inflation.

The beneficiaries include HBM, advanced foundries, AI accelerators, power equipment, high-grade copper and uranium value chains, and edge AI (for PCs, smartphones, and server NICs).

The Most Important Point Not Often Mentioned Elsewhere

When the IPO gateway opens, the primary market absorbs liquidity from the secondary market.

A large-scale IPO rush acts as a ‘liquidity multiplier’ in the latter half of an index rally, serving as a fuse for a correction.

Watch out for liquidity flooding.

US Treasury issuance (QRA), the Treasury General Account (TGA), and bank reserve levels determine ‘real liquidity’ aside from interest rates.

When reserves drop to a critical level, bearish divergence in risk assets is likely to occur.

The power grid emerges as a new macro variable.

AI power demand will trigger investments in power facilities, transmission, distribution, nuclear, gas, and renewable energy, but initially, it may increase pressure on electricity rates and energy inflation.

This could ultimately entail a ‘second-wave’ inflation risk.

Risk Radar: What to Check in This Phase

• US major IPO calendar and the intensity of public offerings
• Option market call skew and surge in trading volume for small-cap/meme stocks
• US Treasury short-term and long-term interest rates, real interest rates, and the dollar index
• Liquidity indicators such as bank reserves and trends in RRP/TGA balances
• US and European 5y5y inflation expectations, along with wage and housing costs
• Semiconductor inventory/demand momentum (ASP, lead times)
• Execution of power grid investments and trends in electricity rates
• Announcements on Korea’s dividend and share repurchase policies, as well as corporate governance events

5-Year Investment Principles and Portfolio Guide

No all-ins.

Survival is paramount during prolonged corrections.

Always hold assets with inverse correlation.

A recommended cushion against volatility is 5–10% in gold and 10–15% in cash equivalents.

Learning is profit.

Regularly update your framework in financial and economic history, as well as in accounting and valuation.

Example of strategic allocation (for reference):

• United States: AI infrastructure (semiconductors, power), high-ROIC “quality growth,” and dividend stocks with strong cash flows
• Korea: Low PBR, high ROE improvement candidates, companies with clear dividend/share repurchase policies, and sectors like energy, heavy equipment, and component materials
• Bonds: Medium to long duration during economic slowdowns, short-term treasuries or MMFs during volatile periods
• Alternatives: Focus on gold, with limited small-scale exposure to raw materials such as power and copper within specific themes

Fix your rebalancing rule numerically.

It is recommended to perform staggered trades and quarterly reviews when target weight deviates by ±20%.

Practical Checklist: 8 High-Point Warning Signals

• Simultaneous large-scale IPOs and overheated public offerings
• The spread of an “easy money” narrative and a relay of account verifications
• A chain of limit-ups in theme stocks and small caps, with a surge in trading volume
• Widening disconnection between valuation and performance
• Rising inflation expectations and increased real interest rates
• Accelerated tapering (QT) by the Fed/ECB and decreasing reserves
• Transition to a stronger dollar and currency instability in emerging markets
• Widening credit spreads and poor post-IPO stock performance

Conclusion: Economic Outlook, AI, and the Paradox of Liquidity

The global economy is supported by expectations of a easing interest rate cycle and an AI investment cycle, yet signs of the later stages of the liquidity market are becoming increasingly evident.

The key is not to deny the rise, but to design both sustainability and recoverability simultaneously.

Rather than chasing the tail of liquidity, check for institutional changes, productivity cycles, and precursors of liquidity flooding first.

< Summary >

• The liquidity market can be viewed in three phases, and we are currently in the momentum phase.
• The valuation gap between Korea and the US is explained by structural factors (ROE and corporate governance), and the US may experience a shorter correction due to AI-driven productivity.
• Overheated large-scale IPOs, narrative excess, and rekindled inflation are warning signals of a market top.
• Without improvements in policy, taxation, and corporate governance, the sustainability of Korea’s stock re-rating is weak.
• A diversified portfolio is essential: avoid all-ins, use gold and cash equivalents to cushion volatility, and maintain a barbell strategy centered on AI infrastructure and quality themes.

[Related Articles…]

• 2025 Global Economic Outlook: Interest Rate Shift and AI Beneficiaries Map
• Big Cycle of AI Infrastructure Investment: Three Waves of Semiconductors, Power, and Raw Materials

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 자산 시장의 거품과 붕괴는 반복된다… “유동성 장세, 위험한 신호가 온다” | 김광석의 콜라보 – 경제포차 홍춘욱 2편

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● AI Supercycle, Dollar Surge, Power Crunch – 2025 Stock Playbook

[Chuseok Special Lecture] 2025 Global Economic Outlook and Stock Roadmap Chosen by AI Trends

This article includes three major interest rate scenarios, strategies for a strong dollar and exchange rates, the beneficiary chain of the AI data center power crisis, a map of KOSPI·NASDAQ stock groups, and a 90-day checklist.
We have re-organized keywords that are briefly mentioned on other YouTube channels or news outlets into practical buying criteria.
Even if the global economy is shaky, the AI investment cycle continues — only perspectives that can be translated into actual portfolios are included.

Today’s News-Style Key Briefing

• Despite inflation easing, the Fed continues data-dependent decision-making between “high and prolonged” and “gradual rate cuts.”
• If the strong dollar resumes, emerging markets may face headwinds; however, Korean export blue-chips benefit from exchange rate leverage.
• AI data center CAPEX is expanding from “semiconductors → memory/HBM → power/cooling → network optical modules,” suggesting structural growth until 2026.
• U.S. policy variables (tariffs, easing of energy regulations, tax cuts/fiscal policies) clearly distinguish winners by industry.
• An increased strategic allocation to gold is effective for hedging against geopolitical tensions, fiscal deficits, and real interest rate volatility.

Global Macro Outlook and Positioning

Keywords: global economy, inflation, rate cuts, strong dollar, AI investment.

[United States] Employment and wages are on a slowing trajectory. Service sector inflation remains sticky, but supply-side pressures are easing.
The Fed’s first substantive rate cut signals the severity of economic slowdown, and the speed, rather than the timing, will change market pricing.
The base scenario (highest probability): slow rate cuts, moderate growth slowdown, and stable real interest rates.

[Europe] Price stabilization and growth slowdown occur simultaneously, with policies focused on protecting the economy.
If energy price volatility recurs, economic risks will be more pronounced.

[China] Top-down liquidity supply continues, but credit multipliers remain limited.
IT hardware, solar, and battery exports continue to influence global prices.

[Korea] A semiconductor upcycle and exchange rate effects drive earnings cycles.
Export momentum is strong in memory, aviation/shipbuilding, and LNG sectors.

[Exchange Rates & Dollar] If the U.S. maintains its growth relative advantage and real interest rate levels, a resumption of a strong dollar appears likely.
The won is supported by export recovery, but remains sensitive to foreign investment flows.

[Gold & Commodities] Gold reflects fiscal deficits and geopolitical premiums, maintaining an upward trend.
Copper and uranium benefit from leverage associated with power grid and data center expansions as well as changes in the energy mix.

Policy Variables: The Impact of 2025 U.S. Policy Scenarios on Markets

[Tariffs & Trade] If tariffs are raised domestically and globally, global supply chain relocation accelerates, benefiting U.S. manufacturing, logistics, and automation.
Korean and Taiwanese IT hardware could benefit from North American CAPEX rerouting.

[Energy] A combination of easing fossil fuel regulations and investment in transmission networks structurally benefits utilities, power equipment, and T&D (transmission and distribution) sectors.
This plays in tandem with data center power demand, enhancing earnings visibility.

[Tax Cuts & Fiscal Policy] Prolonged corporate and high-income tax cuts expand companies’ profit margins and share buyback capabilities.
An expanding fiscal deficit could push long-term interest rates higher, contributing to a stronger dollar.

[Immigration & Labor] Strengthened immigration controls may trigger wage pressures and service sector inflation, potentially slowing the Fed’s easing pace.

AI Trends 2025: From Data Centers to Devices

[Compute] Despite improvements in supply, demand for GPUs/accelerators continues to outpace supply.
Enterprise adoption of AI is accelerating, intensifying the competition for TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) optimization.

[Memory/HBM] Demand for high-capacity, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expanding in both AI training and inference, defending ASPs and margins.
Upstream components such as packaging, TSV, advanced substrates, and testing equipment are sequentially tight.

[Power & Cooling] Power grid expansion, ultra-high voltage transformers, switchgear, UPS systems, cooling solutions (liquid immersion, rear water-cooling), and thermal management solutions emerge as bottlenecks.
Power contracts and PPAs become key competitive advantages for data centers.

[Network/Optics] The transition from 800G to 1.6T optical modules and necessary upgrades to CPO/leaf switch ASICs are essential.
Resolving network IO bottlenecks determines model efficiency.

[On-Device AI] The adoption of NPUs in AI PCs and smartphones is expanding, increasing demand for computation, batteries, and low-power memory.
Edge AI, leveraging its privacy and latency advantages, is seeing increased enterprise deployment.

Korea vs. United States: What to Buy (Sector Map and Representative Stocks)

Below are sector-specific ideas; they are research starting points, not specific stock buying recommendations.

• Core AI Infrastructure: GPUs/accelerators, HBM memory, packaging/testing, optical modules, switch ASICs, data center power/cooling, and T&D equipment.
• Korean Beneficiaries: Memory (HBM), packaging/testing (bonding, TSV, post-process automation), substrates (alternative to ABF, multilayer), semiconductor equipment/parts, ESS/power semiconductor collaborative groups in secondary battery materials, shipbuilding (LNG), and defense.
• U.S. Beneficiaries: Hyperscalers/cloud, semiconductor equipment, utilities/T&D, thermal management, optical communications, and data center REITs with power expansion potential.
• Reopening & Exchange Rate Leverage: Duty-free, travel, and Korean content export companies may see accelerated performance during a weak won phase.
• Cyclical/Price Power: Copper, uranium, industrial gases, and industrial automation are beneficiaries from the underlying structure of data center and power grid CAPEX.

Portfolio Framework Based on Three Interest Rate & Exchange Rate Scenarios

[Scenario A: Gradual Rate Cuts + Soft Landing] High-quality growth stocks, AI infrastructure, enterprise software, and selective reopening winners prevail.
Long-term bond duration remains neutral, and gold allocation is maintained.

[Scenario B: High and Prolonged Rates + Strong Dollar] Dividend stocks with sturdy cash flows, utilities/power equipment, export stocks benefiting from a weak won, and gold/dollar assets offer defensive qualities.
Caution is advised for companies with high debt and uncertain long-term cash generation.

[Scenario C: Sudden Economic Slowdown] Long-term bonds, high-quality corporates, defensive sectors (healthcare, consumer staples), gold, and policy beneficiaries in infrastructure outperform.
Cyclical stocks and themes with high leverage are reduced.

90-Day Checklist for Buying Timing

• The directional trends of the U.S. core PCE annualized over 3 months and service inflation.
• Changes in real rates (10Y TIPS) and expected inflation (5Y5Y levels).
• Trend reversals of the DXY and Korean won/dollar, as well as current and futures positions held by foreigners.
• Utilization rates and ASPs of HBM/DDR5, and lead times for foundry/post-processing.
• CAPEX guidance from hyperscalers and queues for data center power permits/interconnections.
• Optical module ordering trends (transition from 800G to 1.6T) and switch ASIC upgrade cycles.
• Guidance on utility capital expenditures and backlogs for transmission transformers.

The Most Important Points Rarely Mentioned Elsewhere

[The Power Grid is the Real Bottleneck] It’s not the AI chips, but rather ultra-high voltage transformers, switchgear, cables, and EPC capacity that determine the pace of data center expansion.
Therefore, the earnings visibility of utilities, T&D equipment, and thermal management companies is as durable as that of semiconductors.

[Inference OPEX Drives the Market] The power costs for inference, rather than training, are fundamental to enterprise budgets.
Accelerators with efficient power consumption, low-power memory, and model optimization software are the “hidden winners.”

[Networks Are the Next Expansion Axis] The transition to 1.6T and CPO have received little media attention, yet resolving IO bottlenecks sets model performance.
The value chain of optical modules, silicon photonics, and switch ASICs benefits structurally.

[Micro Shocks from Tax and Accounting Changes] Extensions/changes in tax cuts and the treatment of R&D expenses have a direct impact on profits and FCF.
To avoid companies with “good EPS but poor FCF,” always look at surplus cash flow margins and stock-based compensation expenses.

[Re-rating of Korean Packaging/Testing] The value of advanced packaging is growing from a memory-focused base, and domestic post-processing automation/testing companies have room for multiple expansion.

Practical Screening Rules (Summary)

• AI Infrastructure: Order backlog growth rate, sales ratio of power/cooling, and 12-month CAPEX coverage.
• Semiconductors & Equipment: Exposure to HBM, customer diversification, and inventory days relative to peak cycles.
• Export Stocks: Hedging policies for exchange rate, proportion of sales in dollars, and exchange rate sensitivity of operating income.
• Utilities/T&D: Growth rate of regulatory asset base (RAB), approved capital expenditure plans, and dividend growth guidance.
• Risk Management: Net debt/EBITDA below 2x, floating rate debt ratio below 30%, and maintenance of positive FCF margins.

Risk Map

An unexpected re-heating of service inflation may delay rate cuts and trigger valuation adjustments.
A deepening strong dollar could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets and increased commodity volatility.
Adjustments in AI CAPEX, government regulations, and geopolitical shocks could increase short-term volatility.

Portfolio Guidelines

Core 60%: Comprise of AI infrastructure chains (semiconductors, power, networks) and high-quality growth stocks.
Defensive 25%: Manage volatility with utilities, infrastructure, healthcare, and gold.
Options 15%: Apply tactical allocations to exchange rate leveraging export stocks, copper/uranium, and other themes.
For individual stocks, always verify that earnings, valuation, and cash flow align.

Practical Q&A Quick Conclusion

Q. Should I buy now or wait?
A. During periods of unstable rates and dollar, a ‘dollar-cost averaging and long-term’ approach is the proper method, and steadily accumulating AI infrastructure and power grid stocks is effective rather than leveraging.

Q. Between Korea and the United States, which weighting is better?
A. A “barbell” approach combining structural growth (U.S. AI infrastructure) with cyclical recovery (Korean memory/equipment) is the answer.

Q. Why continue holding gold?
A. Gold reduces portfolio volatility by hedging against fiscal deficits, geopolitical risks, and real interest rate volatility.

< Summary >

The Fed is likely to implement gradual rate cuts, and the risk of a resuming strong dollar must be considered.
The AI investment cycle is expanding beyond semiconductors to power, cooling, and networks, and remains structural until 2026.
Korea excels in memory/HBM, packaging/testing, and shipbuilding/defense, while the United States focuses on hyperscalers, utilities, T&D, and optical communications.
The power grid is the real bottleneck, so utilities, transmission/distribution, and thermal management companies are expected to have strong earnings visibility.
Employ a barbell strategy based on scenarios and manage risks with a 90-day checklist for phased buying.

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
The final decision and responsibility lie solely with the investor.

[Related Articles…]

• AI Data Center Power Crisis, A Comprehensive Investment Point Summary
• Revival of a Strong Dollar and Opportunities in Emerging Market Stocks

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– [추석특강] 어떤 주식을 살 것인가?

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