● Fed cut odds 95, Dimon warns correction, Ferrari plunges, Nvidia eyes 5T, AI capex roars

Fed Watch 95% · Dainamo “Correction Within 6 Months” · Structural Slowdown in the Luxury Sector · Nvidia’s $5 Trillion Milestone · Comprehensive Summary of the ‘Buy’ Rationale for DraftKings

This article covers the scenario of a 95% probability of a rate cut at the end of October, the true meaning behind JPMorgan’s Dainamo warning of a correction within six months, the structural changes in the luxury sector revealed by Ferrari’s sharp decline, Nvidia’s $5 trillion milestone and the sustainability of the AI trend, as well as the rationale and risks for a ‘buy’ rating on DraftKings.
Global economic outlook and the direction of the US stock market, changes in the inflation path, and portfolio rebalancing strategies after a rate cut are organized into immediately applicable insights.

Today’s News Briefing

• Fed & Rates: The September FOMC minutes repeatedly emphasized the upward inflation risk, and the market has priced in about a 95% probability of a 25bp cut by the end of October.
• Powell’s Remarks: At the welcoming speech for the Washington DC Bank Conference, no new guidance was provided, and the speech mainly focused on general messages about easing regulatory burdens on community banks.
• JPMorgan Dainamo: A possible correction of 10–30% within 6 months to 2 years was warned.
• Luxury Shock: Ferrari’s stock experienced an extraordinary plunge, and concerns over a structural slowdown in the luxury sector have risen due to the downward revision of electric vehicle mix targets.
• AI & Semiconductors: Nvidia has expanded expectations for breaking the $5 trillion milestone while defending against index declines, and AI capital expenditure (CapEx) appears to be in a sustained mode rather than showing signs of slowing.
• Alternative Assets: The trend toward diversification into gold and bitcoin is intensifying as demand for diversification is being seen.
• DraftKings: Based on the low penetration of online gambling, Berenberg has upgraded its investment opinion to ‘buy’.

Macro Core: Rates · Inflation · Fed Scenario

• Point 1: The market is pricing in a 25bp cut in October as the “base case,” with a high probability of an additional cut in December.
• Point 2: The minutes pointed out that due to tariffs and cost pass-through, the downward path of inflation is not smooth, and long-term anchored inflation risks were cautioned.
• Point 3: Government shutdown variables may increase short-term data gaps and volatility, but expectations of policy easing have a greater impact on pricing.
• Investment Check: Curve bets should consider the 2s10s steepening risk and observe the pace of short-term financial condition easing triggered by a rate cut.

Stock Market Trends: Third Year of the Bulls, Prolongation vs. Caution

• Big Tech & AI Leading: The information technology sector led the market with cumulative performance from 2023 to 2025, and this year there are signs of expansion into small-cap, defensive, and cyclical stocks.
• Historical Comparison: With an average bull market duration of about 5 years, the statistics still suggest a ‘prolongation,’ but valuation concerns remain high.
• Key Indicators: Earnings revisions (breadth), high-yield spreads, and the supply and demand dynamics of long-term bonds will determine the market’s staying power in a prolonged phase.

Luxury Sector: What Ferrari’s Plunge Tells Us About Structural Changes

• Event Summary: Ambitious sales targets were met with a disappointing reduction in the electric vehicle mix, which led to a sharp drop in the stock price.
• Structural Factors: Factors such as a slowdown in high-end consumption in China, reduced real purchasing power due to global high rates and inflation, and variables related to tariffs and policies are leading to a revaluation of valuations.
• Industry Signals: Some luxury OEMs have downgraded their margin guidance, compounded by the slowdown in European tourism and the re-opening cycle.
• Investment Implication: While ultra-premium cores remain resilient, “marginal luxury” and new market entrants show greater elasticity.
• Positioning: Instead of high-end OEMs, exploring lower cyclicality areas like aftermarket parts and services (maintenance, parts) and the intersection of experiential consumption and travel recovery is advised.

AI Trends: Nvidia’s $5 Trillion Milestone and Continued CapEx

• Demand Side: With expanding model sizes and the commercialization of real-time, multimodal services, the demand for AI infrastructure is leaning more towards sustainability than a slowdown.
• Supply Constraints: Bottlenecks exist in power, cooling, site acquisition, and grid expansion, with power equipment, HVDC, switchgear, and liquid cooling infrastructure emerging as secondary beneficiaries.
• Investment Strategy: Diversify the chain by holding a GPU leader, HBM memory, high-bandwidth networking, and power infrastructure to reduce the risk of concentrating in a single stock.
• Risk Management: It is important to monitor the pace of the cycle, the proportion of capital financing and vendor financing for clients, and manage sensitivity to government subsidies and regulatory newsflow.

Risk Scenario: Interpreting Dainamo’s Warning

• Summary: A potential correction of 10–30% within 6 months to 2 years is a rational caution signal in overheated conditions.
• Possible Triggers: Re-ignition of inflation, fiscal uncertainty, geopolitical risks, instability in long-term bond demand, delays in AI CapEx, and downward revisions in corporate profit margins are among the key triggers.
• Response: The core strategy is a “Barbell Strategy” (quality growth stocks + stable cash flow dividend stocks), along with delta hedging and diversification into gold, bitcoin, and medium-to-long-term government bonds, while managing a flexible cash position.

Alternative Assets & Exchange Rates: Strengthening Diversification

• Gold: It tends to perform well in periods of falling real rates and helps reduce portfolio volatility.
• Bitcoin: It continues to see demand as a hedge against currency devaluation, with the need to size positions in consideration of regulatory and volatility risks.
• Exchange Rates: Even in a weakening dollar environment, the impact of individual weak currencies can offset each other, so hedge ratios should be gradually adjusted based on data.

Individual Stock Focus: The Rationale Behind the ‘Buy’ Upgrade for DraftKings

• Investment Points: The still low penetration of online sports betting, expansion of legalization, improvements in iGaming cross-selling, and product mix (single-game, same game parlay) provide leverage for profitability.
• Key Variables: Weekly tax rates, advertising regulations, management of promotion costs, and the pricing capability of live betting are critical for long-term margins.
• Risks: Intensifying competition (such as FanDuel), reduced betting frequency during a macroeconomic downturn, and newsflow regarding regulatory tightening can increase short-term volatility.

Consumer & Health Trends: Risks of Marijuana Use and Industry Impact

• Data Points: Reports have emerged showing that marijuana-related indicators are high in some areas following analyses of traffic accident fatalities.
• Industry Impact: This could have repercussions in areas such as automobile insurance loss ratios, roadside testing, sensor and analytics solutions demand, and tightened workplace safety regulations.
• Investment Perspective: Monitor insurance, detection technology, and healthcare monitoring companies for potential regulatory benefits and reassess risk pricing models.

Trading Plan: Immediate Portfolio Actions to Implement

• Base Case (Rate Cut → Soft Landing): Maintain exposure to quality big tech, AI infrastructure, semiconductor memory, and power equipment, while gradually expanding into small-cap and cyclical stocks based on data.
• Downside (Re-ignited Inflation · Long-Term Bond Instability): Increase allocations to cash, short-term bonds, and gold; restructure equities into defensive sectors and high-dividend stocks; and reduce beta exposure.
• Execution Tips: Adhere to periodic buying and rebalancing, focus on guidance, order flow, and CapEx comments during earnings season, and manage leverage conservatively.

Calendar & Checklist

• Monetary Policy: It is essential to monitor the tone change in comments and dot plot before and after the FOMC meetings at the end of October and in December, as well as the trend in financial condition indices.
• Bonds: Pay close attention to the bidding demand metrics for the 30-year bond (bid-to-cover ratio, the proportion of indirect bids).
• Inflation: Check CPI and core services of PCE (housing, medical, insurance sub-indices).
• Earnings: Monitor the guidance and inventory/order flow across sectors such as big tech, semiconductors, power equipment, and luxury.

Key Points Selected from Often Overlooked Sources

• A slowdown in the luxury sector could lead to a structural weakening of the ‘price increase capability’, making aftermarket services more defensive than OEMs.
• The expansion in AI is constrained by bottlenecks in the power grid. Transformers, HVDC, liquid cooling, and data center power equipment will be the next beneficiaries.
• Companies are diversifying AI CapEx through vendor financing and long-term supply contracts. While this reduces short-term cash flow burdens, it increases long-term obligations.
• Even if interest rates are cut, a disruption in long-term bond demand can lead to a re-tightening of financial conditions. Bidding metrics serve as checkpoints for the actual “authenticity.”
• The margin in sports betting hinges on the management of ‘hold rate’. The proportion of SGP and the ability to estimate implied probabilities are key sources of alpha for DraftKings.

Sector-Based Action Ideas Summary

• AI Infrastructure: Maintain core exposure to GPU leaders, HBM memory, high-bandwidth networking, and power equipment.
• Defensive & Cash Flow: Use essential consumer goods, utilities, and high-dividend income stocks as buffers in a rate cut scenario.
• Luxury: Hold core ultra-premium brands selectively, while approaching marginal brands and volume-oriented segments conservatively.
• Alternative Assets: Maintain small, diversified positions in gold and bitcoin, operating within a volatility-tolerant range.

< Summary >

• The market has priced in a 95% probability of a rate cut in October, with high expectations for an additional cut in December.
• Upward inflation risks remain, making long-term bond demand and bidding metrics key factors.
• The luxury sector shows clear signs of structural slowdown, with aftermarket services being relatively defensive.
• AI expansion faces a bottleneck in power and grid capacity, making infrastructure related to power equipment the next key investment theme, while diversification around Nvidia remains necessary.
• Dainamo’s warning signals the timing to review hedging and the barbell strategy.
• DraftKings benefits from low market penetration and product mix improvements that provide long-term margin leverage.

[Related Articles…]

Winners and Losers Across Asset Classes after the Fed Rate Cut
Nvidia and the AI Trend: The 2026 Roadmap

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– 페드워치툴 10월말 금리인하 확률 95%ㅣJP모건 다이먼 회장 “6개월내 조정”ㅣ드래프트킹스 투자의견 ‘매수’ 상향ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕

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