● Wall Street AI Frenzy, Panic-Buys Power, Chips, Data Centers

Wall Street’s Accelerating ‘AI Infrastructure Panic Buying’: BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley Concentrate Capital on Power, Semiconductors, and Data Centers

This article contains three key points.
First, it clearly organizes, like a news report, the capital flow behind why major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are now engaging in what can be described as ‘panic buying’ of AI infrastructure.
Second, it separately analyzes the real essence that other channels rarely mention, namely the structure where power prices and capital costs determine valuations, and the supply-demand gaps created by policy and regulatory timing differences.
Third, it provides the global economic outlook for 2025 and the potential impacts on the US stock market, checkpoints for scenarios involving inflation, interest rates, and recessions, as well as an investment note format currently used in the market.

1) Wall Street News Briefing: Troops Deployed Where “Money is Made”

• BlackRock is strengthening its strategy of securing racks, power, and land on a scale by pursuing the acquisition of a large data center operator.
• Meta has been reported to be pouring capital into AI data center expansion, having successfully secured the largest-ever funding through Morgan Stanley.
• Goldman Sachs has excited the market with news of establishing a dedicated ‘AI Infrastructure’ team that directly connects VIP high-net-worth individuals and private equity to AI infrastructure projects.
• Projects structured with big tech, private credit, pension funds, and Middle Eastern capital in a project finance approach have emerged as the trend.
• The key takeaway is that the new benchmark of global liquidity is now being focused on tangible infrastructure, moving from semiconductors to data centers to power grids.

2) Policy Signals: Defending the 3% Growth Rate with AI

• Amid massive fiscal deficits, some policymakers and asset management leaders repeatedly assert that “accelerating AI infrastructure investments sustains the growth rate at around 3%.”
• Some interpret this as an attempt to initiate a long and robust productivity cycle, reminiscent of the IT boom of the 1990s.
• The message is clear: it is a commitment to rally both public and private capital into AI infrastructure to avoid a recession and defend the US stock market.

3) Supply Chain Scene: Semiconductors, Power, and Cloud Generate Simultaneous Profits

• Semiconductors: A symbolic transition towards cutting-edge domestic production in the US is underway. TSMC’s signal of mass production in Arizona, Intel’s drive to support foundries, and AMD’s large AI chip contracts are all instances of a ‘supply re-deployment.’
• Data Centers: Hyper-scalers are expanding their campus structures, converting to high-density racks for AI workloads, and investing simultaneously in cooling and PUE improvements. Delays in new power connections are considered the biggest bottleneck.
• Power & Energy: The demand for immediate power has expanded the theme to include ESS, fuel cells, industrial generators, and high-efficiency power semiconductors. Long-term power quantities are being filled by nuclear power and upgrades to transmission and distribution, while short-term power quantities are met by distributed power.
• Cloud: GPU rental fees, AI platform sales, and expanding partner networks are accelerating the cash cow phenomenon.

4) The ‘Real Essence’ That the Market Does Not Mention

• Power cost per kWh is essentially the valuation.
  In the total cost of ownership (TCO) of an AI data center, power is the largest variable expense.
  Even a one-cent move in the kWh price can drastically change the ROI by model.
• Capital cost is the gatekeeper of profitability.
  The levels of interest rates and credit spreads determine the project’s IRR.
  Even for the same data center, a 1–2% p difference in the WACC can split the NPV.
• The queue for grid connection is the true bottleneck.
  In some regions, the wait time for new connection permits and substation installations can extend up to 24–48 months.
  This gap is what creates the premium on colocation rental fees.
• Rack density and the switch to cooling systems determine the winners and losers.
  Companies that shift from air cooling to immersion or direct liquid cooling secure spreads by improving PUE and minimizing additional power expansion.
• The lag in policy is the source of excess profits.
  The timing differences in cashing out permits, subsidies, and tax credits create differences in multiples.

5) Bubble or a Justified Investment?

• Bubble signals: There are signs of rapid valuation re-rating, surging premiums on power and land, and excessive expectations on temporary power sources that bypass the grid.
• Justification logic: The large expectations that AI can convert CAPEX into productivity gains suggest that if model deployment, automation, and R&D speed improvements are reflected in performance, multiple defenses are possible.
• A balanced view: Although short-term prices may see repeated cycles of overheating and corrections, real-world expansions of power, semiconductors, and data centers are likely to continue on multi-year cycles. The center of gravity for the global economic outlook indicates that these will be the core infrastructure investments for 2025–2027.

6) Macro Variables Check: US Stock Market, Inflation, Interest Rates, Recession Risks

• Interest Rates: A decline in long-term rates simultaneously stimulates both project IRR improvements and valuation increases, while rising real interest rates are a tailwind for growth stocks.
• Inflation: Increases in power rates and construction costs lead to higher CAPEX, and prices of grid connection materials (transformers, copper, cables) are sensitive.
• Recession: There may be mixed signals from non-AI IT spending slowdowns, but AI CAPEX is more likely to have a defensive character.
• Strong Dollar: It has mixed effects on the cost of imported equipment and chips as well as global demand. Volatility in the dollar index can hit the semiconductor value chain directly.
• Policy: Simplification of transmission and distribution regulations, fast-track permitting for data centers, and the continuity of energy tax credits are crucial turning points for the 2025 performance guidance.

7) Sector & Theme Status and Observation List

• Semiconductors: Synchronization of cycles for GPUs, memory, back-end processes, and equipment. Focus on the speed of capacity expansion in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced lithography, and packaging.
• Data Center REIT/Colocation: Key points are power purchase agreements (PPAs) and rental fee repricing. The timing of new power-on is the trigger for enterprise re-rating.
• Power Infrastructure: Demand is spreading to transmission, ESS, fuel cells, industrial generators, and power semiconductors (SiC/GaN). Immediate power solution beneficiaries are short-term, while nuclear power and SMRs focus on the mid- to long-term.
• Cloud & Software: The key to profit leverage is the speed of AI platform monetization, partner ecosystem, and whether usage-based fee structures for AI are introduced.
• ETF Utilization: If individual stock volatility is a concern, approaching via semiconductor ETFs (such as SMH, SOXX, etc.) may be reasonable. Check the composition, fees, and rebalancing cycle.

8) This Week’s Investment Checklist

• Power PPA pricing and contract duration. Check if the structure has fixed or index-linked power prices.
• Rack density transition plans and cooling CAPEX. Check if there is guidance on PUE improvements.
• Grid connection wait times and substation expansion schedules.
• Capital raising structures (project finance vs. corporate bonds vs. private credit) and WACC.
• Supply chain lead times (transformers, switchgears, cables, chips, equipment).
• Policy events (simplified permitting, tax credits, trade/export regulations).

9) Risk Map and Defensive Strategies

• Ongoing grid bottlenecks: Until alleviated, expectations for distributed power and ESS may be over- or under-evaluated, so pay attention to quarterly earnings volatility.
• Interest rate rebound: Valuation compression risk. Premium regression may occur for operators with highly visible cash flows.
• Speed of technology transition: Delays in switching from air cooling to immersion may delay sales conversion due to insufficient rack density capacity.
• Policy reversal: Reduced subsidies/tax credits could lower IRR. However, given the nature of core infrastructure, the possibility of a complete rollback is considered low.
• Oversupply: If simultaneous operations overlap in certain regions after 2026–2027, rental fees and margins could face pressure. Check for mismatches by region and power.

10) One-Line Conclusion

• The key beta for the US stock market in 2025 is still AI infrastructure.
• The crux of this cycle is ‘power cost per kWh and capital costs,’ and the party that can lower both will capture excess profits.
• Although volatility will occur, the infrastructure investment cycle will continue. Corrections may present opportunities, and the structure is long-lasting.

Key Takeaways Unique to This Analysis: What Others Rarely Mention

• The value of a data center lies in the “land + power connection rights + cooling technology” set, not the building itself.
• PPA conditions (fuel index, REC inclusion, early termination clauses) will determine future margins.
• A 1% p difference in WACC can instantly change a project’s NPV. This is why interest rates and spreads need to be checked daily.
• The timeline for grid connection approval is the starting point for rental fee repricing. If supply cannot increase, rental fees will be defended.
• Operators who standardize immersion or liquid cooling ahead of others can create cash cows by increasing rack density without additional power expansion.

< Summary >

• Wall Street and big tech capital are increasingly focusing on AI infrastructure that connects semiconductors, data centers, and power.
• The policy stance is favorable to accelerating AI investments to defend a 3% growth rate.
• The essence of valuation lies in power cost per kWh and capital costs, with grid bottlenecks creating excess profits.
• The key points for 2025 are checking power PPA, grid connection queues, cooling transitions, and capital raising structures.
• Although cycles of overheating and correction will repeat, the infrastructure investment cycle is likely to continue for many years.

[Related Articles…]

• AI Infrastructure Bubble and Power Crisis: 2025 Investment Checklist
• Dissecting Data Center Power PPA: Power Cost Per kWh Determines Multiples

Additional Note: This article is an analysis based on public disclosures, media reports, and market interviews and does not constitute an investment solicitation.
Global economic outlook, US stock market, inflation, interest rate, and recession-related variables can change at any time.

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– 거물들마저 패닉 바잉 시작? 트럼프 최측근이 준 강력한 힌트

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● Staged Peace, Tech Cold War

APAC Gyeongju Summit: The Cost of Staged Peace, and the Next Round of Tech and Economic Wars

This article covers 1) the true nature of Trump and Xi Jinping’s ‘staged peace’, 2) the market arithmetic of the Global South alliance, 3) tech decoupling and supply chain reorganization centered on AI and semiconductors, 4) a practical checklist for Korean businesses and investors, and 5) the potential impact on exchange rates, interest rates, and raw materials.
It also separately outlines the “Huawei-style model of talent and technology transfer” and the “strategic significance of BYD’s urban operation infrastructure,” topics rarely covered by other YouTube channels or news outlets.
It is organized in a news summary → explanation → action points format, ready to be applied from a global economic perspective.

Quick News One-Liner: Key Points of the Gyeongju Summit

The photo shows peace, but the reality is competition.
There is no grand compromise; managed dialogue and message control are key.
The essence of the US-China hegemony rivalry has evolved from military to high-tech and economic warfare.
After the APAC, sanctions, standards, data, and semiconductors are likely to face further decoupling.
The Global South is emerging as the dual axes of consumer markets and technological cooperation.
For Korea, supply chain reorganization requires simultaneous strategies of selection, combination, and hedging.

The Real Meaning of ‘Staged Peace’: Why They Meet but Never Reach an Agreement

The summit itself is a political event for internal and external audiences, as well as a mechanism to temporarily lower the global risk premium.
However, technology sanctions, investment reviews, export controls, and data sovereignty remain non-negotiable red lines for both sides.
In the end, while the expressions remain gentle, the agenda is managed even more tightly in a “long game.”
The photos remain, regulations pile up, and supply chain reorganization continues.

The Current Position of the Tech and Economic War: The Triangular Battle of AI, Semiconductors, and Standards

The United States is solidifying an AI and semiconductor alliance centered around its allies while meticulously controlling core equipment, software, and the movement of talent.
China is expanding its open cooperation framework to the Global South, circumventing restrictions through demand, talent, and localization.
Huawei is rolling out an integrated “market + education + ecosystem” strategy by roadmap-based nurturing of engineers and local technology transfer in Southeast Asia.
BYD is building visible results in urban operation infrastructure such as electric buses and sanitation vehicles, linking policy, public opinion, and orders.
The conclusion is that instead of a single global standard, a multi-system of regional and allied standards is emerging.
This will accelerate the differentiation of specifications in AI training and inference infrastructure, cloud, edge devices, and vehicle/city operating systems.

The Rise of the Global South: A New Mathematical Equation in the Market

Even if only the top 20% high-income groups of China and India are combined, they form a potential purchasing power that exceeds that of the United States.
Mobile-first consumption, the polarization between ultra-low and high prices, and the growth in social commerce payments are converging.
They are characterized by “price sensitivity + rapid adoption,” functioning as a lever market for new technologies.
It is a rare combination where both supply chains and demand centers coexist, enabling rapid pivots by policies and companies.

Market Checklist by Scenario: Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Semiconductors, and Raw Materials

Scenario A: Managed Easing (maintaining staged peace with fine-tuned regulations).

• Exchange Rates: With a easing dollar strength, the Korean won and Chinese yuan might see less pressure at the top of their box range.
• Interest Rates: Long-term rate volatility may ease, with signals of narrowing credit spreads.
• Semiconductors: Continued investment in AI servers, HBM, and back-end processes, with expectations for more flexible export reviews on certain equipment.
• Raw Materials: Demand expectations for electrification metals like copper and nickel, with oil balancing supply-demand and geopolitical factors.

Scenario B: Re-escalation (increased sanctions and export control tightening).

• Exchange Rates: A re-ignition of strong dollar, increased volatility in the Korean won, and deepening safe asset preferences.
• Interest Rates: Simultaneous rise in short and long-term rates may lead to a search for new long-term bottoms amid signs of economic slowdown.
• Semiconductors: Impact on equipment and materials destined for China, accelerating CAPEX in non-China production bases such as EMEA and ASEAN.
• Raw Materials: An expanded risk premium on energy and rare earth supplies due to supply risks.

Korea’s Playbook: Not a Choice, but a Combination and Hedge

It is designed on the premise of operating with a “dual vendor, dual stack” approach in anticipation of dual standards.

• Semiconductors, batteries, and equipment: A two-track CAPEX strategy between the United States (cutting-edge) and ASEAN/India (expansion).
• Software and data: A framework that meets both U.S. regulations and Southeast Asian local regulations.
  Continuous hedging against exchange rates and raw materials is essential.
• Export companies should enhance their natural hedge by separating exposures in dollars, yuan, and rupees.
• Managing an optimal mix of long-term contracts and spot transactions for copper, nickel, and lithium is necessary.
  In supply chain reorganization, increasing the internal content of “domestic localization of back-end processes” and “key components” is crucial.
• The quickest shield against the shocks of export restrictions and sanctions is the possibility of alternatives.
  Securing AI talent should be pursued through pipelines in Southeast Asia.
• A field-to-product integrated training model through local universities, boot camps, and joint labs is highly efficient.

Key Points Addressed Only Here: Uncommon Angles in Other Media

Huawei’s integrated “education-technology-market” export model is the most robust structure for bypassing sanctions.

• By bundling talent development and localization alongside mere equipment sales, the lock-in effect increases exponentially.
  BYD’s infiltration into urban operation infrastructure is a policy-driven network that spreads through national and local government procurement.
• Electric buses, eco-friendly vehicles, and charging stations improve citizen satisfaction, which in turn leads to regulations, subsidies, and additional orders.
  Even just the top 20% in China and India can create an “alternative demand pool to the U.S.,” serving as a market cushion to absorb the costs of US-China decoupling.
  AI standards are likely to converge not on a single global standard but on “regional operating systems,” leading to simultaneous differentiation in models, data, chips, and networks.
  Korea’s most pragmatic strategy is a dual-portfolio of “cutting-edge within the U.S. ecosystem and high growth in the South.”

Investment Idea Map: What to Watch, Listen to, and Act on Now

Semiconductor value chain: HBM, CoWoS back-end processes, test handlers, and high-bandwidth interconnects.
ASEAN digital infrastructure: Data center power and cooling, submarine cables, and edge CDNs.
Electrified mobility: Electric buses, charging infrastructure, vehicle operating systems, and BMS software.
Cybersecurity: AI security, OT security, supply chain security, and the transition to zero trust.
Payments and settlements: Cross-border payments, stablecoin on-ramps, and solutions compliant with local regulations.
Raw materials and energy: Long-term offtakes for copper, nickel, lithium, rare earths, and medium- to long-term LNG procurement.

Checkpoints: Key Focus Areas for the Next 3–6 Months

Updates on export controls and investment reviews, and the actual scope of exceptions.
The pace of China’s announcements on new AI and edge chips, along with the expansion of developer and education programs.
Announcements on payment, currency, and standard cooperation from BRICS/Global South meetings.
Detailed guidelines on data and subsidies from the United States and Europe.
Follow-up implementation of semiconductor and battery tax credits and reshoring incentives in Korea.

Conclusion: The Picture Shows Peace, the System is Decoupled, and the Strategy is Dual

The smiles of the leaders may temporarily reduce market volatility.
However, technology, standards, and supply chains are already on a long-term path of separation.
Korea’s solution is not about “choice” but about “portfolio” and “hedge,” as well as proactively establishing pathways for the movement of talent, standards, and capital.
From a global economic perspective, the US-China hegemony rivalry is a long-term structural variable, and AI and supply chain reorganization are channels that transmit that variable in tangible form.
Exchange rates and interest rates serve as gauges of the temperature of this channel, so continually monitor the data, minimize risks, and take large options as needed.

< Summary >

• There is no grand compromise; staged peace and managed competition will continue.
• The core of the tech and economic war is AI, semiconductors, standards, and data, which will face deep decoupling.
• The Global South absorbs the costs of US-China decoupling through demand, talent, and localization.
• Korea’s strategy is summarized as dual stack, dual vendor, and hedging.
• The market checklist comprises scenario-specific responses for exchange rates, interest rates, semiconductors, and raw materials.

[Related Articles…]Korea’s Strategy after US-China Hegemony
Supply Chain Reorganization and the Future of Semiconductors

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 스트롱맨들의 ‘연출된 평화, 평화는 없다’ APAC 경주 정상회담의 트럼프·시진핑의 진짜 속내는? | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 신형관 대표 1편

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● Liquidity Time-bomb, Asset Elites Soar, Consumers Crushed

Korean Economy, The Truth Behind Polarization and Lackluster Domestic Demand Created by ‘Money Supply’｜A Comprehensive Summary of 2025 Key Points Including Interest Rates, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Minimum Wage, and AI Automation

The core of this article is that it explains the true variable shaking the Korean economy by starting with the money supply and linking everything together.
It covers the channel of liquidity that pushed up asset prices, the mechanism of household debt that cooled domestic demand, empirical data on minimum wage and employment, and how AI automation will change wage policies.
It also connects the way changes in the global economic environment are transmitted to Korea through interest rates and exchange rates, clarifying the reasons behind the decoupling of the KOSPI, real estate, and consumption.
It separately summarizes the “asymmetric allocation of liquidity” and the “stealth tightening created by the exchange rate,” topics that are rarely addressed in other news.
It includes an actionable checklist for both investors and policy makers.

Today’s Headline Summary

• The more the money supply increases and the lower the interest rates, the more asset prices rise ahead of consumer prices.
• The essence of polarization is the result of liquidity being concentrated only in assets that can be used as collateral.
• A sharp increase in the minimum wage has triggered decreases in employment and working hours, as well as automation, which in turn has adversely affected domestic demand.
• With the weakening disinflation emerging from China, global inflationary pressures have structurally risen, and exchange rate volatility is amplifying the effects of monetary policy.
• The key to Korea’s economy in 2025 will be determined by the interest rate path, the exchange rate regime, and the speed of household debt deleveraging.

Mechanism of Polarization and Lackluster Domestic Demand: Money Supply → Asset Prices → Household Debt → Decline in Consumption

The first to react when a lot of money is injected is not consumer goods, but asset markets such as real estate and stocks.
Households with assets become wealthier through valuation gains, while those without assets increase their leverage to keep up with rising property prices.
As the principal and interest repayments of household debt eat into disposable income, the average propensity to consume falls.
As a result, the contribution to growth becomes more dependent on exports, and domestic demand weakens in the long term.
The longer this structure persists, the more asymmetrically fiscal and monetary policies function during economic downturns.

Historical Context of Monetary Policy: ‘Asset Inflation’ Created by Low Interest Rates and the China Factor

After the IMF crisis, low interest rates and expanded liquidity facilitated a rapid recovery but also ingrained a habit of rising asset prices.
Some have criticized that M2 expanded excessively during certain periods, but the more fundamental point is the “direction of liquidity allocation.”
After China’s accession to the WTO, global supply surged and inflation remained low, allowing advanced economies to keep interest rates relatively low.
While consumer prices remained subdued, liquidity flowed into asset markets, leading to cycles of bubbles and crashes.
In the process, Korea also saw wealth concentrated in the real estate market, with widening gaps across regions and generations.

Minimum Wage, Employment, Automation: Between Data and Reality

A rapid increase in the minimum wage has been shown in both theory and empirical studies to exert pressure on employment, working hours, and the margins of self-employed businesses.
As seen in the case of Seattle, USA, a sudden and significant increase can reduce jobs and working hours, and accelerate automation.
In Korea, with a high share of self-employed businesses and low operating profit margins, the scope to pass on cost shocks is limited.
Ultimately, the spread of unmanned services, kiosks, automated ordering and payment, and AI-powered customer service hastens the substitution process.
The issue is that simply having a wage policy cannot raise total income; policies to boost productivity, technology absorption, and scale-up must be implemented in tandem.

Key Points Rarely Mentioned in the News

• Asymmetric allocation of liquidity
  Credit tends to concentrate in sectors and among households that can provide collateral.
  Simply regulating the total amount cannot ease polarization; the flow of credit itself must be changed.
• ‘Stealth tightening’ created by the exchange rate
  In a weak won phase, rising import prices and the upward pressure on real interest rates occur simultaneously.
  Even if nominal interest rates remain fixed, the exchange rate performs a tightening function, further cooling domestic demand.
• Asset inflation vs. consumer inflation
  Even if the CPI is low, the perceived costs of housing, education, and assets can be high.
  If policy targets are solely tied to the CPI, perceived declines in living standards and political backlash may increase.
• Service disinflation created by AI
  AI automation creates downward pressure on service prices, weakening the effectiveness of minimum wage policies.
  Raising the wage floor has less impact than lifting the ceiling on productivity.

Watching Points for 2025: The Three Pillars of Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Household Debt

• Interest Rates
  With lingering global inflationary pressures, the pace of rate cuts is likely to be gradual.
  The yield curve, the balance between fixed and variable rates, and corporate bond spreads provide forward signals for the economy and credit risks.
• Exchange Rates
  Fluctuations in the USD, linked to U.S. growth, inflation, and fiscal deficits, could trigger renewed volatility in the dollar’s strength.
  The moment the USD/KRW exchange rate shifts its regime, the stock market, real estate, and consumption will be repriced simultaneously.
• Household Debt
  Key risks include the end of repayment deferrals, cascades in jeonse pricing and project financing, and stress among groups sensitive to variable interest rates.
  A rapid deleveraging process could further dampen domestic demand, while a slower pace could prolong financial imbalances.

Policy Proposals: From Total Amount to ‘Flow and Productivity’

• Alteration of Liquidity Channels
  Refine LTV and DSR differentially to reduce credit concentration in households with multiple properties or collateral and guide flows toward first-time purchases and productive investments.
• Fine-Tuning of Wage Policy
  Make the minimum wage flexible based on industry, region, age group, and company size, and complement it with Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC) and social insurance credits.
• Restructuring of Self-Employment and Commercial Space Supply
  Manage new supply of commercial space, convert vacancies into business support, and lower costs through collective purchasing, shared logistics, and distribution of AI tools.
• Incentives for Transitioning to Fixed-Rate and Long-Term Loans
  Lower households’ interest rate risks and reduce uncertainty in consumption.
• Spreading AI-Driven Productivity
  Promote the adoption of AI tools such as reservation systems, payment solutions, customer management, RPA, and chatbots in small and medium enterprises, accelerating their diffusion through training, certification, and tax credits.

Investor Checklist

• Check if global economic leading indicators (ISM, new unemployment, leading indices) align with the direction of interest rates.
• Monitor the turning point of the USD/KRW exchange rate trend and the real effective exchange rate (REER).
• Analyze Korea’s exports by separating volume, unit price, and margin spreads.
• Determine if the stock market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to a profit-driven phase.
• Monitor liquidity indicators related to real estate project financing (PF) and jeonse mismatches, as well as loan loss provision reserves.
• Watch the pace of normalization in the yield curve and the spreads between corporate bonds rated A and BBB as indicators of economic and credit risks.
• Assess the impact of fiscal execution and the national debt issuance calendar on interest rates.
• Check the possibility of a resurgence in supply-side inflation driven by oil, freight, and food raw materials.
• Gauge risk aversion by the co-movement of gold and the dollar.
• Organize a calendar of policy events (including wage decisions) to manage event risks.

Common Misunderstandings and Clarifications

• The misconception that “injecting money always leads to soaring prices”
  The key is where the liquidity flows; in recent decades, asset prices have reacted before consumer prices.
• The misconception that “lowering the minimum wage automatically boosts growth”
  Growth cannot be explained solely by a wage floor; productivity, competitiveness, and economies of scale must work together to drive domestic demand.
• The misconception that “a weaker won is good only for exports”
  A weaker won leads to higher import prices and reduced real incomes, which adversely affect domestic demand.

Action Checklist: What to Do Right Now

• If you have a high proportion of variable rate loans, consider switching to fixed-rate options.
• For cash flow-sensitive sectors, first increase productivity leverage through automation and AI tools in labor costs.
• Adjust your overseas asset holdings flexibly with appropriate currency hedging in line with the market regime.
• Manage your portfolio by separating interest rate-sensitive stocks, domestically defensive stocks, and structurally growing stocks by category.
• Keep a calendar of policy events (including wage, tax, and loan regulation decisions) to monitor event risks.

Summary: Why Start with the Money Supply

While the money supply is the starting point, the outcome is determined by “where the liquidity flows.”
As money becomes concentrated only in assets that can serve as collateral, polarization deepens and household debt restricts consumption, weakening domestic demand.
A high minimum wage and high-cost structures have triggered rapid automation, and AI is revealing the limitations of wage policies through service disinflation.
The key variables for 2025 will be interest rates, exchange rates, and household debt; it is time for policies that change the “flow and productivity” rather than merely regulating the total amount.
Strategies that read global economic regime changes through exchange rates and inflation, and that bet on long-term productivity rather than short-term liquidity, are effective.

< Summary >

• The expansion of the money supply has driven up asset prices, increased polarization and household debt, and weakened domestic demand.
• A sharp rise in the minimum wage has reduced employment and working hours and accelerated automation, creating headwinds for domestic demand.
• The exchange rate effectively acts as both tightening and easing, exerting asymmetric effects on domestic demand and asset markets.
• The key variables for 2025 are interest rates, exchange rates, and household debt; solutions lie in changing the liquidity flow and spreading productivity rather than mere total amount regulation.

[Related Articles…]

• The Decisive Channel Through Which Money Supply Impacts Asset Prices
• 5 Signals That AI Automation Is Changing Wage Policies

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 한국 경제 진짜 문제점은 통화량입니다. (ft. 김경원 교수 3부)

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