● Market Panic, Quantum Bloodbath, Gold Crash
NASDAQ Decline, IONQ Plummet, and the True Causes Behind the Significant Drop in Gold Prices, as well as the Next Moves.
Today’s article precisely contains three key points.
The ripple effects when the US-China software export control review potentially expands to AI, semiconductors, and cloud computing, and its connection to the Nasdaq weakness.
The structure behind the simultaneous crash of quantum computing stocks due to Google’s quantum research disclosure, IONQ’s rights offering, and valuation concerns.
The superficial reasons for the significant drop in gold prices (strong dollar, interest rates, changes in safe-haven asset preference) overshadow the fine structure of diminished demand in India during the wedding season and leverage liquidation.
Below is the news-style summary, along with points not covered by other YouTube channels or news outlets.
US Market Briefing: NASDAQ and the Turning Point of Investor Sentiment.
The Nasdaq fell along with a weakness in risky assets, and selling pressure spread across technology stocks.
The backdrop includes issues related to the US administration’s review of export controls on software for China and concerns over prolonged government shutdowns.
Even if a shutdown does not cause a significant real shock, it is crucial in macroeconomic terms as it increases volatility through a gap in economic indicators.
Tesla’s earnings serve as a gauge for tech investment sentiment and could mark a psychological turning point along the value chain from AI to electric vehicles and semiconductors.
The interplay among key factors such as Nasdaq, interest rates, a strong dollar, economic outlook, and inflation is at the heart of this correction.
US-China Software Export Control Review: The Real Reason Behind Market Sensitivity.
This discussion has stimulated investor sentiment simply by the possibility of expanding beyond hardware (semiconductor) sanctions to include software and cloud computing.
Potentially affected areas include software for AI model training/inference, electronic design automation (EDA) for semiconductors, libraries for high-performance computing (HPC), industrial simulation, security software, and cloud-based AI services.
Global software and cloud companies with a high sales ratio to China are facing uncertainty, while companies with alternative domestic and international demands may gain reflex benefits.
If policy variables trigger a strong dollar through exchange rate movements, they could adversely affect the valuation (long-term cash flow discount) of tech stocks.
The key points for investors are the specific scope of application, exceptions, and the implementation timeline.
Until these three points are clarified, asset prices are likely to alternate between a “policy premium/discount.”
IONQ and the Plunge of Quantum Computing Stocks: The Triple Shock of Google’s Research Disclosure, Rights Offering, and Valuation Concerns.
Google researchers published a paper in Nature claiming advancements in practical quantum computing, reigniting debates over technological leadership.
The market interpreted this as an emphasis on the speed of major tech companies, leading to short-term concerns about a technological gap with early-stage or small-to-mid cap quantum companies.
At the same time, IONQ’s announcement of a large-scale rights offering raised issues of shareholder dilution and reliance on capital funding.
After a short-term rally, profit-taking, and a macro environment unfavorable to growth stock multiples due to rising interest rates and a strong dollar, further exacerbated the decline.
Based on figures discussed in market talks, the PSRs of some quantum-related stocks range from hundreds to thousands, which has amplified price sensitivity.
However, the timeline for technological commercialization differs across industries.
Once key indicators such as error correction roadmaps, recurring customer revenue, and progress on backlogs and partnerships are verified, stock price sensitivity is likely to diminish.
The point to watch is whether major tech companies’ research papers or prototypes will lead to “commercial sales” and whether listed companies’ pilots will transform into “willingness to pay.”
Significant Drop in Gold Prices: The Surface-Level Strong Dollar, Underlying Indian Demand Cycle, and Leverage Liquidation.
On the surface, factors such as a strong dollar, rising real interest rates, and reduced preference for safe-haven assets amid easing geopolitical tensions are mentioned first.
Additionally, there is an underlying seasonal demand cycle in India.
India, along with China, is one of the world’s largest consumers of gold, and it is customary to stockpile gold ahead of the wedding season (typically from mid-November to early January).
This means that just before the peak season, physical purchases tend to slow down, and prices are likely to weaken as they reflect the earlier “gap in demand.”
Moreover, given the recent significant inflow of individual and leveraged funds, once a technical support level is breached, there is a high possibility of a cascade of liquidations in CTA, ETF, and futures positions.
When international meetings (e.g., IMF or World Bank meetings) contribute to a consensus that “prices have risen too much,” a shift in narrative may be triggered.
In the end, gold proves to be an asset in which not only the strong dollar and interest rates, but also seasonal demand and the microstructure of the derivatives market play a role simultaneously.
News at a Glance: Key Points Summary.
- The Nasdaq weakness was driven by the combined effects of the US-China software export control review and concerns over a prolonged shutdown.
- Quantum computing stocks like IONQ were hit by the simultaneous shock of Google’s research disclosure, rights offering, valuation worries, and profit-taking.
- The significant drop in gold prices was largely due to a strong dollar/rising interest rates along with pre-peak season demand exhaustion in India and leverage liquidation.
- Tesla’s earnings serve as the short-term turning point for tech investment sentiment.
Most Important Points Not Covered by Other YouTube Channels or News Outlets.
First, “real interest rates” are functioning as a single variable affecting all assets.
The rise in real yields on US Treasury bonds increases the discount rate for growth stocks, raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, and, through a strong dollar, imposes a discount on emerging markets and commodities overall.
Viewing the common denominator of this correction as real interest rates simplifies the overall flow.
Second, a prolonged shutdown creates a “data gap” risk.
If some statistics from entities like the BLS, Census, or BEA are delayed, both the Federal Reserve and the market will add an uncertainty premium to prices.
This very gap itself is a factor that increases volatility.
Third, the AI investment cycle is temporarily lowering the “relative attractiveness” of future technology themes like quantum computing.
As CAPEX for cloud and AI infrastructure concentrates, funds are seen being pulled from long-term commercialization themes such as quantum computing.
Google’s research disclosure has realigned the tech leadership debate around major tech companies, and the premium on small-to-mid cap quantum stocks has been temporarily reduced.
Fourth, an analysis of the microstructure of gold prices suggests there may have been significant intraday futures selling pressure, CTA trend following, and changes in the basis between spot and futures markets.
This coincided with the end of the pre-peak buying by Indian jewelers, which left thin physical orders.
This indicates that the price drop may reflect not “disappearing demand” but rather a timing gap in demand.
Checklist: What the Market is Watching This Week.
- Pay attention to comments on AI CAPEX and demand elasticity in earnings reports and guidance from major tech companies like Tesla.
- Reassess interest rate and inflation expectations based on key indicators such as US PCE, employment data, ISM indices, and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
- Monitor trends in real interest rates (US 10-year TIPS), the dollar index (DXY), and credit spreads (HY OAS).
- For gold, keep an eye on changes in COMEX net positions, ETF holdings, Indian gold imports and premiums, and whether technical support levels are restored.
- For quantum computing, check indicators such as IONQ’s cash reserves, dilution effects, order intake/backlog, and the conversion of pilots into recurring sales.
Strategy Notes: Execution Tips.
Since policy variables (export controls, shutdowns) cause premiums/discounts to fluctuate until the actual text is released, prioritizing position adjustment and event risk management is key.
It is reasonable to remain cautious of volatility in both growth stocks and gold until signs of a reversal in real interest rates are confirmed.
A split approach to physical gold and ETFs, as well as using options to exploit volatility, can be useful, and a recovery in momentum is likely when the strong dollar subsides.
For quantum computing stocks, assess data rather than the narrative.
Companies with verified error correction roadmaps, customer billing structures, and controlled cash burn rates tend to be relatively more defensive.
< Summary >
The Nasdaq weakness was primarily due to the US-China software export control review and concerns over a prolonged shutdown.
IONQ’s sharp decline resulted from the combined impact of Google’s research disclosure, a rights offering, overvaluation debates, and profit-taking.
The hidden variable behind the significant drop in gold prices was the pre-peak seasonal demand exhaustion in India and leverage liquidation in the derivatives market.
The common denominator affecting all assets is real interest rates and a strong dollar, and this week’s major tech earnings and key inflation indicators will determine the next direction.
[Related Articles…]
- The Dynamics Between a Strong Dollar and Gold Prices, and Investment Timing Points
- Quantum Computing: How Google’s Breakthrough Signals Affect AI and Semiconductors
*Source: [ 내일은 투자왕 – 김단테 ]
– 나스닥, 아이온큐, 금 대폭락의 비밀
● AI Shopping Tsunami, Power Supercycle, Streaming Margin Shock
AI Shopping Showdown, GE Vernova Power Cycle, Netflix Brazil Tax Shock – New York at a Glance
Today’s article contains these key points.
- The basis for the reality of automating financial professional tasks with OpenAI’s Project Mercury.
- How ChatGPT shopping is shaking up search advertising and even capturing retail payments.
- GE Vernova’s solid order intake and a 62GW gas turbine backlog signaling an ultra-long power cycle investment.
- Netflix’s margin risks exposed by Brazil’s tax issues and signals of slowing streaming growth.
- A portfolio review checklist based on this week’s earnings and FOMC betting points.
It naturally incorporates SEO keywords such as US stocks, Nasdaq, S&P 500, interest rate cuts, and economic outlook.
Today’s Market Check: Modest Start with Varied Momentum by Stock
The major indices started modestly.
Nasdaq slightly declined, the S&P 500 was nearly flat, and the Dow and Russell showed similar tones.
Big tech largely remained strong but limited in direction.
Texas Instruments plummeted sharply following a downward target price adjustment, and Netflix fell by over 8% after its earnings announcement.
AT&T was weak despite an increase in wireless subscribers due to future guidance concerns.
Capital One showed relative strength among financial stocks.
Tesla, IBM, and Lam Research earnings are scheduled after today’s close, potentially leading to heightened volatility.
AI’s Penetration into Daily Life: How OpenAI’s ‘Project Mercury’ is Changing Work and Costs
It has been reported that OpenAI is hiring over 100 top-tier investment bank professionals to train a model specialized in financial tasks.
At $150 per hour, professional-level knowledge labeling and workflow automation signal that high-cost white-collar work, including regulatory compliance, documentation, and risk checks, may soon be automated.
This indicates that AI infrastructure investments are not a “bubble” but are laying the groundwork for revenue and cash flow.
For companies, KPIs will shift from model performance to “accountability, security, cost/response speed.”
Although regulatory and data governance issues may accompany this, in the short term, the pressure for productivity improvements and cost reduction is stronger.
The Advent of ChatGPT Shopping: Retail Showdown and the Erosion of Search Advertising
Walmart announced the introduction of ChatGPT-based product search and payment, causing its share price to surge in just one day.
Commerce platforms such as Shopify also revealed cooperative plans, gaining momentum.
The key is “instant checkout.”
For example, “a recommendation for a lightweight stroller under $300 → immediate payment” enables an uninterrupted purchase experience.
The structure where consumer traffic flowed from search engines to retail sites could be rearranged to “conversational agents → instant payments.”
Both retail ad revenues and search advertising could be hit simultaneously, with payment fees and sponsored slots emerging as new cash cows.
In Korea, Naver Shopping’s traffic pipeline may also be shaken, making it essential to integrate its own agent with payment systems.
Big Cycle in Power Infrastructure: GE Vernova Proves It with a 62GW Backlog
GE Vernova recorded a 62GW gas turbine backlog amid surging power demand from AI data centers.
Revenue and profits increased together, and its share price strengthened.
The key is that “power is not just about price, but about availability by time slot.”
Rapid-ramping gas power generation and grid modernization, which can quickly respond to AI traffic peaks, are immediate solutions.
Compared to themes like SMRs (small modular reactors) with uncertain revenue, power and grid companies that generate immediate cash are receiving premiums.
In the US, due to aging transmission networks and inefficient power transport between regions, the cycle of investments in transmission line expansion, substation equipment, and smart metering systems could extend for a long time.
Pricing power in power equipment and long-term service contracts (LTSA) support their valuations.
Netflix: Margin Risks Exposed by Brazil’s Tax Issue, No Acceleration in Growth
In Q3, despite growing revenue, Netflix’s operating margins were impaired by tax issues in Brazil.
Even with the emergence of blockbuster IPs, the lack of acceleration in subscriber and revenue growth concerns the market.
As streaming competition reconfigures around sports broadcasting rights, content cost structures are becoming heavier.
While IP merchandise serves as an ancillary revenue stream, it is not on the scale to reverse the slowdown in the core business.
Some on Wall Street have adjusted target prices and presented a conservative outlook.
The key factors are price increase potential, expansion of the ad tier, and the direction of its sports strategy.
Earnings Calendar and FOMC Betting: Checkpoints for Short-Term Volatility
Earnings from Tesla, IBM, and Lam Research will determine short-term directionality.
For Tesla, key points include North American market share, profitability (price vs. cost), and updates on their new robo-taxi narrative.
For semiconductor equipment, the persistence of AI capex signals is crucial, along with a mix of memory and backend processes.
Ahead of the FOMC, the market is heavily betting on a 25bp rate cut scenario between October and December.
If inflation composition shifts towards slower progression and services remain robust, and if the cooling of employment intensifies, the narrative for rate cuts will strengthen.
The US as the ‘Plastic Kingdom’: ESG Irony and Cost Restructuring
The US ranks among the highest in per capita plastic usage globally, with 80% of the used plastic ending up in landfills or incineration.
The high proportion of drive-throughs makes it structurally difficult to spread the use of reusable cups.
After banning single-use plastic bags, the surge in non-woven fabric bags ironically increases greenhouse gas emissions—an “ESG paradox.”
This trend increases costs and regulatory risks for packaging, recycling infrastructure, and alternative material companies.
For retail and dining companies, cost reduction will depend on transitioning packaging standards and collaborating on recovery infrastructure.
Details You Won’t Find Elsewhere: Key Points Often Overlooked
- For data center power, “confirmed capacity during peak hours” is more critical than the kWh price.
Rapid ramping of gas turbines and long-term capacity contracts (capacity markets/RA) ensure performance visibility. - The essence of ChatGPT shopping is the “departure of the shopping cart from search.”
This not only reduces advertising revenue but also allows payment fees and sponsored slot sales to emerge as new revenue streams.
In retail, upcoming issues will involve the fairness of recommendation algorithms and regulations on sponsored labels. - The automation of advanced financial knowledge means AI is directly attached to “revenue-generating processes.”
In-house data closed networks and audit trails become competitive advantages, shifting the competition from model performance to “governance.”
Portfolio Action Items
- Power/Grid: Consider increasing exposures to players in gas turbines, substation equipment, transmission lines, and grid software.
- AI Infrastructure: Diversify within the value chain of data center power, cooling, and backend process equipment under the “power efficiency” theme.
- Retail/Platforms: Be cautious with companies heavily reliant on search ads and favor those with integrated commerce-payment pipelines.
- Media: Monitor sports broadcasting rights acquisition, ad tier expansion potential, and price increase capabilities.
- Risks: Uncertainties from US-China summit diplomacy, regulatory issues, fluctuations in raw material prices and exchange rates, and downward revisions in earnings guidance.
< Summary >
AI is evolving to penetrate even advanced financial tasks, turning the “bubble debate” into tangible performance.
ChatGPT shopping is set to shake both search and retail advertising while altering payment paradigms.
GE Vernova confirms the onset of the power big cycle with a 62GW gas turbine backlog.
Netflix’s margin risks from Brazil’s tax issues expose the lack of acceleration in growth.
In the short term, earnings season and rate cut bets will drive US market volatility.
[Related Articles…]
When AI Shopping Replaces Search Advertising, Who Will Be the Winner in Retail?
Data Center Power Shortage, Gas Turbine and Grid Investment Checklist
*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]
– [LIVE] GE버노바 견조한 수주에 주가 상승ㅣ넷플릭스 브라질 세금에 부진 실적ㅣ전 세계 1위 플라스틱 소비나라 미국ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕
