● Tesla AI Goldrush, RoboTaxi Takeover, Energy Bonanza, Optimus Bottleneck

Tesla Q3: More About ‘Direction’ Than Numbers — The Golden Era Unlocked by Robo-Taxi, Energy, and Optimus

This article covers often-overlooked points such as Wall Street’s perspective on Tesla’s new growth drivers, the technological leap of FSD captured in indoor parking lots, the “hand-forearm” challenge in developing Optimus, the impact of Musk’s compensation vote on the cost of capital, and the synchronized demand of robo-taxi and energy.
To understand Tesla now, one must look at the integration of robotics, energy, and AI infrastructure rather than just EPS.
We have connected global economic factors such as interest rates and inflation with stock market momentum to organize this as a news format.

News at a Glance

• Revenue reached an all-time high, exceeding consensus, while EPS was around $0.50, slightly missing expectations.
• After the announcement, stock volatility increased before rebounding. The market is focusing more on “direction” than on numbers.
• Cash flow and cash reserves (approximately $41.6 billion) are emerging as fuel for investments in AI, robotics, and energy expansion.
• FSD has advanced into irregular spaces like indoor parking lots, showing interaction on the level of driving etiquette.
• Optimus faces a bottleneck with its hand-forearm actuators. It is identified as the gateway for practical humanoid robots.
• Wall Street perspectives: Wedbush states, “The beginning of a golden era,” maintaining a target price of $600; Mizuho raises it to $485; Baird holds at $548.
• The vote on Musk’s compensation package directly affects the cost of capital through the AI/robotics roadmap and governance risk premium.

Headline Results and Market Response

• Revenue reached about $28.1 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates (approximately $26.4 billion).
• EPS came in at $0.50, missing consensus; however, the stock rebounded afterward.
• The investment highlights can be summarized in two points.
  1) Increased cash generation expands the capacity for reinvestment into AI, robotics, and energy.
  2) A fundamental shift from being an automotive company to a platform and services company is accelerating.
• Global economic conditions (debates over peak interest rates, pace of declining inflation) remain exogenous variables for a re-rating of multiples.

Wall Street Consensus: More on the Roadmap Than the Numbers

• Wedbush (Dan Ives): “The start of a golden era.” The robo-taxi, robotics, and AI roadmap is the key investment point. Target price remains at $600.
• Mizuho: Raised target price from $460 to $485. It aims for 40 times performance improvement with next-generation AI computing, judging 2026 as the real starting point.
• Baird (Ben Kallo): Holds at $548. Grid constraints are driving demand for energy storage (Megapack), positioning energy as a key axis.
• Gene Munster: While the rollout speed of robo-taxi should be viewed cautiously, the $41.6 billion in cash is a ‘weapon’ for executing the vision.

Robo-Taxi: Platform Model and Unit Economics

• Strategic point: Tesla aims for a vertically integrated model by directly owning and operating the network, unlike other platforms such as Uber.
• A model where car owners contribute their vehicles to the network during working hours significantly increases asset utilization.
• An example of a pilot revenue scenario (concept example):
• With daily operating hours of 8–12 hours, fare per ride/mileage pricing, and factoring in maintenance, insurance, and electricity costs, high service margins are potentially attainable.
• With network effects, customer acquisition costs (CAC) decrease, and lifetime value (LTV) increases with the vehicle’s lifespan.
• Regulatory and safety phases: From restricted zones → metropolitan areas → full commercialization. The pace of pilot programs in places such as Austin is key.
• Macro connection: As interest rates drop, the financial and leasing costs of autonomous fleets decrease, improving business feasibility.

FSD Advancement: What the ‘Indoor Parking Lot’ Example Shows

• In irregular environments (with scarce signage, unclear lane markings, mixed vehicles and pedestrians), it performs contextual judgments such as signaling turns, yielding, and adjusting speed.
• This indicates the maturity of the “physical AI” sensor-action loop learned from massive data, rather than a rule-based system.
• KPIs to watch:
• Success rate in irregular scenarios like urban areas and parking lots.
• FSD subscription rates, cumulative autonomous driving mileage.
• OTA update frequency and performance improvement trajectory.

The Bottleneck in Optimus: Hand-Forearm Actuators

• Musk stated, “The hand-forearm is even more challenging than the entire robot.”
• Reason: It must simultaneously achieve high degrees of freedom, strength, precise control, reliability, and lightweight design, all of which are required for a human hand.
• Why it matters: High-value tasks in homes, logistics, and manufacturing largely depend on dexterous hand operations.
• Intangible moat: The IP in hand-forearm actuators and the control stack may, in the long term, provide cost and performance advantages.
• Market timeline (according to Wall Street): Expansion from factory automation to home implementation (projected 2–3 years), though actual rollout speed will depend on safety and cost curves.

Energy Business: The ‘Synchronized Demand’ of Megapack and Robo-Taxi

• Grid constraints and the expansion of renewable energy are driving demand for Megapack.
• The expansion of the robo-taxi fleet simultaneously stimulates demand for charging infrastructure and peak power management.
• Tesla’s strength lies in vertical integration of vehicles, charging, and storage, reducing total cost of ownership and buffering energy revenue volatility.
• From a stock market standpoint, as the revenue and margin contributions of the energy segment increase, there is greater scope for a re-rating of multiples.

Governance Point: The Implications of the Musk Compensation Vote

• The focus is not on the salary but on control and speed of execution.
• Uncertainty in control increases the risk premium and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), directly impacting valuation.
• Conversely, securing roadmap consistency enhances the certainty of executing large-scale capex in AI and robotics, improving long-term cash flow visibility.

Key Points Rarely Covered Elsewhere

• Energy–robo-taxi joint optimization: Integrating Megapack deployment with fleet charging scheduling can simultaneously cut peak electricity rates and improve returns.
• Indoor parking lot performance serves as a litmus test for generalizing into irregular environments, connecting directly to home robot task planning.
• Hand-forearm actuators involve complex issues including parts cost, durability, and noise, so companies that solve these problems could gain a long-term cost advantage.
• The compensation vote is not merely an event but an opportunity to recalibrate the ‘governance risk premium.’ In a market environment of high interest rates and inflation, changes in this premium have a significant impact on multiples.

What to Watch: Execution Metrics for 3–24 Months

• The number of expanded pilot regions for robo-taxi and commercial operating hours.
• FSD subscription rates, cumulative autonomous driving mileage, and OTA frequency.
• New installations of energy storage (MWh), Megapack order backlog, and lead times.
• Investment in AI computing (both in-house and external), and the timeline for mass production of next-generation vehicle computing boards.
• Regulatory milestones: Urban approval records and transparency in accident/safety statistics.

Risks and Counterarguments

• Safety and regulation: A single accident can escalate into a significant public relations risk. Establishing a system for data disclosure and audits is crucial.
• Productization challenges: The hand-forearm issue in Optimus poses a risk, with the pace of cost curve decline being variable.
• Competition and pricing: Price competition in China and supply chain fluctuations.
• Macroeconomic environment: Global economic slowdown, entrenched high interest rates, and a potential re-ignition of inflation could pressure demand and multiples.

Conclusion: Now It’s About ‘Direction,’ Not Just the ‘Numbers’

• This quarter’s message is clear.
• The shift from an automaker to a physical AI company, combined with the triangle of robo-taxi, energy, and Optimus, is the driving force for growth.
• Wall Street views the next 12–18 months as the beginning of a golden era, while the main game is expected to unfold around 2026.
• From an investment perspective, the key evaluation criteria in the stock market should be the execution of the roadmap, governance assurance, and cash allocation policies.

• Tesla Q3 saw a revenue surprise with EPS slightly missing expectations.
• The market is focusing on cash generation and the robo-taxi, energy, and Optimus roadmap.
• FSD’s progress into irregular environments (like indoor parking lots) signals technological maturity.
• The hand-forearm actuators in Optimus are the gateway to practical application.
• The Musk compensation vote directly relates to governance risk and the cost of capital.
• Key keywords: global economy, stock market, interest rates, inflation, AI.
  

[Related Articles…]

• The Economics of Physical AI: How Tesla and NVIDIA Could Change Stock Market Scenarios
• The Impact of Robo-Taxi on the Global Economy and Interest Rates

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

– 테슬라 3분기 실적 — 댄 아이브스가 말하는 ‘황금기’, 숫자보다 방향이다!

---

---

● Tesla Margins Explode, Energy Becomes Cash Machine, FSD Roars

Tesla Q3 Essentials: Rebounding Cost Management, Soaring Energy Margins, and the Plus Alpha Opened by FSD & Robo-Taxi

Key Points to Read Today

We have summarized the secret of rebounding cost management verified by numbers, growth across all divisions, and rising energy margins despite tariffs.

We have detailed how the Nevada LFP internalization roadmap will transform the energy business and global supply chain risks.

We realistically unpacked the software ARPU jump starting at 12% FSD, the robo-taxi revenue model, and the regulatory and technology roadmap.

We have also checked how the interest rate cut cycle and easing inflation might affect demand and margins, and how to interpret the “bottom confirmation” signals through market sentiment.

The conclusion rarely covered in the news is: the speed at which energy is effectively establishing itself as a second engine, the timing of LFP internalization bending the tariff and cost curves, and the potential of explainable autonomous driving (AI) to lower regulatory hurdles.

News Briefing: Key Q3 Figures and Their Interpretation

The highest-ever revenue was driven by the highest quarterly deliveries.

Although the average selling price (ASP) decreased due to the increased share of Model 3/Y, the gap between the delivery growth (+29.41% QoQ) and revenue growth (+28.96% QoQ) is explained by mix effects.

Costs increased at a lower rate than deliveries, leading to an estimated improvement of about 1.1% in unit cost.

Tariffs and intensified competition incurred a burden of about $400 million, affecting both the automotive and energy sectors in similar proportions.

Energy, which heavily depends on Chinese-made LFP, likely took a relatively larger hit.

Although energy installations are volatile, they are on a steep upward trend, and revenues follow a pattern of deferring recognition to the subsequent quarter relative to installation performance.

Energy gross profit surged from approximately $403 million to $1.073 billion, with margins on an upward trend.

Energy gross profit has reached about 31% of that of automotive.

EPS has stabilized rather than surged, but a rebound trend has followed the bottom confirmation across all business divisions.

The FSD purchase rate is about 12%, and management mentioned that pilot robo-taxi operations in some regions will commence within the year, along with up to a 40-fold performance improvement in certain workloads on next-generation chips.

It has been shared that training data equivalent to “500 years of driving data” is accumulated daily, and there are plans to move beyond imitation learning to reinforcement learning.

Performance in Numbers: Costs, Mix, and Profitability

Despite the weakened mix, volume was the growth driver with deliveries up +29.41% QoQ and automotive revenue up +28.96% QoQ.

COGS increased at a rate lower than deliveries, reducing the per-unit cost.

The increased share of Model 3/Y lowered the ASP, but also brought cost improvements through economies of scale and parts internalization.

In conclusion, the positive effect of cost management outweighed the negative impact of price and mix headwinds.

Tariffs and LFP Internalization: Timeline and Ripple Effects

Profitability is recovering despite the dual pressures of tariffs and intensified competition.

Energy storage systems (ESS) are highly dependent on Chinese LFP, making them very sensitive to tariffs.

The Nevada LFP internalization is expected to enter pilot production in 2025, with tangible tariff and logistics cost reduction effects from Q1 2026 onward.

Domestic production in the US is linked to margin improvements driven by supply chain stability, shortened lead times, and increased local sourcing.

LFP internalization is likely to be the turning point for a “structural margin uplift” in the energy business.

Energy Business: The Reality of a Second Engine

While installations fluctuate quarterly, the annual trend is steep.

Since revenue recognition lags behind installations, even quarters with weaker installations can still show positive revenue.

Energy gross profit surged from $403 million to $1.073 billion, with margins steadily on the rise.

The upward margin trend amid tariff headwinds appears to be the result of pricing strategies, improved project mix, and enhanced on-site construction efficiency.

Once LFP internalization begins, margins are likely to further improve.

Automotive Business: Demand Cycle and Interest Rates

In a global economy, rising expectations for interest rate cuts lead to lower automotive financing costs, which are favorable for demand recovery.

Easing inflation stabilizes both costs and consumer sentiment, positively contributing to margin defense.

However, changes in regional subsidies and heightened competition from China demand greater flexibility in pricing strategies.

FSD & Robo-Taxi: Technology Stages and Business Models

The current FSD attachment rate is about 12%, with substantial room for a jump to the 20–30% range upon a technological breakthrough.

Expanding subscription ARPU contributes as a software cash flow that cushions hardware margin volatility.

Robo-taxi aims to achieve network effects by expanding the operational domain (ODD) on a city-by-city basis.

Its revenue model can diversify through ride-sharing commissions, increased vehicle utilization, and additional sources such as insurance, advertising, and map data.

Key risks include regulatory approvals, safety data, and clarifying liability, with the pace differing by region.

AI Stack: Data, Reinforcement Learning, and Chip Roadmap

The vast driving data collected from the fleet forms the basis of competitive advantage.

The shift from imitation learning to reinforcement learning (RL) signifies a paradigm shift from “human-level” to “beyond human” performance.

Management has outlined a target of up to a 40-fold performance improvement for certain workloads on next-generation chips.

The “English explanation” feature of driving decisions enhances model interpretability, which can serve as leverage during regulatory and insurance negotiations.

Valuation and Market Sentiment: Signals of Bottom Confirmation

Even if short-term EPS remains stagnant, the long-term profit trajectory is solidified by energy and service margins and FSD ARPU.

Excessive P/E debates, a surge in put option demand, and muted stock declines in response to negative news are typical patterns of bottom confirmation.

A slowdown in price declines amid falling trading volumes and attempts to reclaim the 200-day moving average are interpreted as signs of inventory absorption.

Risk Checklist

Regulation: Delays in robo-taxi approvals and conflicts in regional safety standards.

Competition: Aggressive pricing from Chinese OEMs and changing tariff environments in North America and Europe.

Supply Chain: Delays in LFP internalization ramp-up and bottlenecks in chips and optical components.

Macro: Reignited inflation and delays in interest rate cuts affecting demand.

Investment Strategy Points

Short-term: In Q4 deliveries and guidance, monitor the impact of changes in US subsidies and the potential for Chinese supplementation.

Medium-term: The contributions from energy gross profit, LFP internalization milestones, and the rate of increase in FSD attachment are key.

Long-term: Track the expansion of robo-taxi pilot cities, the initiation of additional revenues from insurance and maps, and the commercialization roadmap of fourth industrial technologies such as Optimus.

The Most Important Point Not Well Covered in the News

Energy is transforming into a “cash generation engine” that accumulates margins regardless of the EV cycle, and LFP internalization is creating a critical turning point.

FSD’s “explainable AI” could be a game-changer for safety and regulatory acceptance, potentially accelerating the pace of approvals.

The expansion of software ARPU provides a structural buffer that supports overall margins even amid hardware price competition.

Macroeconomic Context: Insights Based on Global Economic Keywords

Amid slowing global economic growth, signals of interest rate cuts act as a catalyst for the recovery of durable goods demand.

When inflation stabilizes, reduced cost and wage pressures favor margin improvements.

From an investment strategy perspective, a “composite growth” approach that lays a solid foundation with core businesses (energy and services) and opens the top with software/FSD, rather than a binary one, is effective.

< Summary >

Tesla has confirmed the bottom through improved cost management and growth across all divisions, with energy margins rising even amid tariff headwinds.

The Nevada LFP internalization is likely to fundamentally improve the tariff and cost structure from 2026 onward.

FSD is opening up plus alpha with subscription ARPU and robo-taxi opportunities from a 12% attachment rate, aiming to widen its technological gap through reinforcement learning and next-generation chips.

Macroscopically, interest rate cuts and stable inflation are favorable for demand and margins, while regulatory factors, supply chain issues, and competition from China remain key risks.

[Related Articles…]

Robo-Taxi Regulatory Outlook and Investment Scenarios

The Impact of LFP Internalization on Energy Margins

*Source: [ 허니잼의 테슬라와 일론 ]

– 테슬라의 모든 부문에서 확인된 반등 트렌드. 하지만 그보다 더 큰 자율주행이 다가오고 있습니다.

---

---

● Stablecoin War, Dollar’s Last Stand

Reconfiguring the Global Monetary Order: The Stablecoin Battle, The Extended Dollar Hegemony, A Comprehensive Risk Timeline for 2026–2028

This article contains all the key points.

• A roadmap for when the liquidity boom ends, contrasting the 2026 midterm elections with the 2028 presidential election.
• Bank consortium stablecoins versus Tether and Circle: Who will claim global payment supremacy.
• The debate over the weakening petrodollar and a new pipeline to support U.S. Treasury demand.
• The conditions under which Bitcoin and Ethereum’s strategic weight, along with Asian asset classes, may falter.
• The truly important points that rarely make the news: stablecoin reserve asset duration, liquidity in the underground economy, and the materialization of programmable sanctions.

[Breaking · Key Summary] 5 News Points Shaking the Global Economy

1) The stablecoin battle has begun.
A bank consortium–based stablecoin is increasingly likely to emerge, and cracks are expected to appear in the dominance of existing USDT and USDC.
The bundled strategy of the financial ecosystem, wielding benefits in settlements, loans, and fees, is crucial.

2) Dollar hegemony is entering an “extended battle.”
US Treasuries are being massively purchased as reserves for stablecoins, expanding the gateway for Treasury demand.
However, new risks such as duration and repo dependency are emerging.

3) 2025–2026 may mark the climax of the liquidity party.
One view is that the ending could be accelerated by the results of the 2026 midterm elections, while another contends that the climax will be reached amid the uncertainties of the 2028 presidential election.
Asian assets are likely to be more volatile due to U.S. political fluctuations.

4) The reserve currency system is not eternal.
In the long run, the new hard money pillar may be reorganized around gold and Bitcoin.
This framework logically underpins an expansion of Bitcoin’s strategic weighting.

5) The essence of the investment strategy is simplicity.
A market capitalization ratio approach of Bitcoin:Ethereum at 7:3 is recommended, and stablecoins should be limited to liquidity and staking yield purposes.
Managing volatility through the use of cash, gold, and options around political events is key.

Reconfiguring the Global Monetary Order: Debates over a Weakening Petrodollar and the ‘Digital Dollar Pipe’

Summary of the Original Conversation’s Claims.

• It is posited that the petrodollar system is weakening and that stablecoins are essentially becoming the new digital pipeline for dollar distribution.
• As a result, U.S. Treasury demand is expanding through stablecoin reserve assets, making an “extended battle” for dollar hegemony feasible.

Fact-Checking and Context.

• The majority of stablecoin reserve assets are clearly composed of short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash-equivalent assets.
• This indicates a shift in the distribution channel of the reserve currency dollar from traditional payment systems like SWIFT to on-chain payment networks.
• Rather than declaring the “end” of the petrodollar entirely, a more realistic interpretation is the diversification of energy settlement currencies in tandem with the simultaneous expansion of digital dollar channels.

Key Implications.

• The technical infrastructure of the reserve currency system is undergoing a transformation.
• It is highly likely that the global circulation of liquidity will be rerouted into a “tokenized Treasury—stablecoin—exchange/wallet—payment” system.

Stablecoin Battle 2026: Bank Consortium vs. Tether and Circle

Why a Bank Consortium is Likely.

• Banks can design user incentives for stablecoin usage by bundling KYC/AML with deposit, loan, and fee services.
• Direct benefits such as “reduced loan rates and fee waivers” can drive user conversion.
• The regulatory trust and robust points of contact with the bank payment network (merchants, B2B, trade finance) create strong entry barriers.

Why Tether (USDT) is Not Easily Displaced.

• The network effect is undeniable, driven by the demands of the underground economy, regulatory arbitrage, emerging market foreign currency accumulation, and 24/7 on-chain payment liquidity.
• Its practical value of “immediate dollar liquidity anywhere” is hard to replace.
• The current market share leadership and deep order book liquidity increase switching costs.

The Dilemma of Circle (USDC).

• Although it has the advantage of being pro-regulation, if a bank consortium enters the field, it would have to compete directly in the same space.
• In B2B settlements, payroll, and commerce partnerships, the bundled benefits of a bank consortium could render it relatively disadvantaged.

Regulatory Variables.

• The stablecoin regulatory framework (often referred to as the ‘Genius Act’) is converging on measures that emphasize U.S. Treasuries and cash-equivalent assets as reserve funds, along with wallet regulations and enhanced oversight of issuers.
• The conclusion is that while safety is improved, issuer revenue models, duration risk, and repo dependency may increase.

Liquidity Market Clock: The 2025–2026 Peak and Two ‘Endgame’ Scenarios for 2026/2028

Scenario A (Early Termination).

• If the 2026 midterm election results turn unfavorable for the incumbent party, policy momentum could weaken and additional liquidity supply measures may be constrained.
• Constraints on the debt ceiling, Treasury demand, and Congressional support for fiscal expansion could transmit to increased market volatility.

Scenario B (Delayed Termination).

• Historical statistics suggest that a lame-duck period might actually be market-friendly due to a “reduction in policy noise leading to a drop in risk premiums.”
• The 2028 presidential election could see amplified uncertainties due to heightened U.S. political polarization, potentially marking the peak of volatility.

Common Denominator.

• The liquidity party will not last forever.
• The termination is likely to manifest as “valuation adjustments combined with widening credit spreads.”
• Asian assets are particularly vulnerable to greater volatility when combined with a strong dollar and political events.

Investment Strategy: Simple Weighting, Clear Hedges, Action-Driven by Events

Crypto Core.

• A core market capitalization approach is justified at a 70:30 ratio between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Stablecoins should be viewed not as investment products, but as tools to harness liquidity and staking yields.
• On-chain Treasury and money market tokens should be regarded as cash reserves, while thorough checks on issuers, custody solutions, and reserve disclosures are essential.

Macroeconomic Hedges.

• Prior to and following the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election, increasing cash allocations along with gold, short-term Treasuries, and purchasing volatility (options) is key to cushioning shocks.
• Asian equities and exchange rates should have predetermined hedging ratios to manage the risk of a strong dollar.

Risk Management.

• Monitor duration (maturity of reserve assets), issuer credit and legal jurisdictions, redemption mechanisms, and off-exchange repo dependency.
• Reduce exposure to single points of failure such as exchanges, bridges, and custody nodes.

The Most Important Points Rarely Reported in the News

• Duration Risk of Reserve Assets.
  If stablecoins extend their maturities beyond short-term T-bills to increase yields, the redemption pressure may intensify sharply if interest rates spike.
  An increased reliance on the repo market can lead to simultaneous redemption and liquidation risks during periods of stress.

• The Materialization of ‘Programmable Sanctions.’
  Bank consortium stablecoins can incorporate wallet-level whitelisting/blacklisting, geographic restrictions, and specified uses.
  This enhances regulatory trust while simultaneously raising new political and ethical issues regarding unprecedented control in private settlements.

• Eurodollar 2.0.
  Stablecoins are effectively functioning as digital eurodollars, allowing U.S. monetary policy and overseas on-chain dollar circulation to operate at different speeds.
  This asynchronous transmission between policy and market can amplify volatility in exchange rates, spreads, and crypto markets.

• Innovation in “Dollar Accessibility” Rather Than a “Dollar Substitute” in Emerging Markets.
  USDT will establish itself in emerging markets as a means to “secure dollars quickly and inexpensively” for foreign currency accumulation, remittances, and commerce.
  This could further complicate the autonomy of the monetary policies in those countries.

• The Shadow of On-Chain Treasuries.
  As tokenized T-bills and money market tokens expand, the operational risks associated with specific issuers or chains could be misconstrued as Treasury liquidity issues.
  Elevating the governance, custody, and smart contract auditing to a level commensurate with the trust of Treasuries remains a key challenge.

Industry Changes Brought by Bank Consortium Stablecoins

Payments.

• Accelerated expansion of commerce and subscription economies through reduced merchant fees, next-day settlements, and automated hedging packages.

Trade Finance.

• Implementation of T+0/T+1 B2B settlements by combining on-chain workflows with letters of credit (L/C), factoring, and insurance.
• Export and import firms could see immediate benefits in terms of faster working capital turnover.

Capital Markets.

• The integration of security tokens, tokenized funds, and bonds, resulting in a connected primary-secondary chain.
• Cross-border repayments, coupons, and dividends will see reduced time and cost.

Retail.

• As the “salary → stablecoin → immediate investment” flow becomes common, the speed of converting cash reserves to investments will accelerate.
• However, the challenges of KYC, wallet management, and onboarding user experience remain critical.

Political Event Checklist (for Investors)

• 2026 Midterm Elections: The continuity of fiscal, trade, and regulatory drives.
• 2028 Presidential Election: The potential peak of policy uncertainty and shifts in dollar strength.
• Progress of stablecoin and tokenization-related legislation in Congress, wallet regulatory scopes, and issuer licensing frameworks.
• U.S. Treasury demand indicators: reverse repo balances, bid demand for short-term T-bills, and AUM of tokenized money market funds.

Portfolio Guide (Summary)

• Core: Bitcoin 70, Ethereum 30.
• Subs: Cash-equivalents (tokenized T-bills/money market funds), gold, and physical dollars.
• Events: Increase cash allocations and use options hedges before and after 2026/2028.
• Monitor: Stablecoin market shares (USDT/USDC/bank consortium), reserve asset disclosures, and on-chain liquidity.

< Summary >Stablecoins are expanding the U.S. Treasury demand pipeline, creating an “extended battle” for dollar hegemony.
Bank consortium stablecoins will absorb regulated payments through bundled benefits, while USDT persists due to underground and emerging market demand.
The liquidity market peak is split between 2026 and 2028, and Asian assets could be subject to heightened volatility.
The investment strategy of a simple core comprised of Bitcoin and Ethereum at a 7:3 ratio, combined with cash, gold, and options around events, remains effective.

[Related Articles…]

• Stablecoin Battle: The Bank Consortium Counterattack
• Post-Dollar Hegemony: Scenarios for the Reorganized Reserve Currency

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 기축통화의 자리를 노린다. 재편되는 글로벌 통화 질서 “달러가 더는 안전하지 않다” | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 강환국 작가 3편

---

---