*Source: 서울경제TV
월마트, ‘리플 결제’ 기습 결정… 美 “XRP 달러 연동 승인”
● Dramatic Yen Plunge, Walmart’s Ripple Revolution, Crypto Payment Disruption
Walmart and Ripple’s Surprise Payment Adoption and Japan’s ‘Takaichi Era’ — The Resurgence of Yen Carry Trade, the Entry of Cryptocurrency into Physical Payment, and Its Impact
The following content is covered — The yen depreciation following the inauguration of Japan’s new Prime Minister Takaichi, the risks of the N (Yen) carry trade resurgence, the impact on the Nikkei and global financial markets.Walmart’s OnePay plans to adopt Ripple (XRP)-based payments and the implications of Ripple joining the Fed’s payment task force on regulations and infrastructure changes.Hidden risks (liquidity, regulation, payment rules, central bank responses) not well-covered in the media and investment and risk management strategies.Structural changes impacting the financial system, payment networks, and AI-based risk management as blockchain and cryptocurrency extend into real-world payments.
1) Japan: Takaichi Inauguration — ‘Abenomics Season 2’ and the Rapid Pace of Yen Depreciation
Current trends in Japan
Japan’s real interest rate (reflecting inflation) has dropped to about -2%.This indicates a structure where holders of Japanese government bonds and cash cannot keep up with the inflation rate.There is a revival of the N (Yen) carry trade, where global investors borrow yen (due to low interest rates) to invest in US and European assets.The dollar/yen rate has surpassed 152 yen, with the yen nearing record lows against major currencies.
Policy signals and market interpretation
Immediately upon taking office, Prime Minister Takaichi strongly signaled her intention to maintain fiscal expansion and monetary easing (with a continued 2% inflation target).The strategy of “money printing” to increase wages and demand and achieve 2% inflation is being interpreted in the market as the “Takaichi trade.”Core pillars: (1) Supporting the economy and stock prices (Nikkei increase) through massive fiscal spending, (2) Maintaining yen weakness to improve the profitability of export companies.
Market impact and risks
Short-term: Export stocks and the Nikkei show strength (Nikkei nearing 50,000), global risk-on sentiment.Medium to long-term: Prolonged yen depreciation and continued monetary easing could lead to overheating inflation, increased national debt, and deepened international financial imbalances.The resurgence of the yen carry trade particularly poses a risk of expanded leverage across the asset market and potential sudden reversals leading to ‘Black Monday’ type shocks.
Investor checklist
Track interest rate and government bond yield differentials (US-Japan) — confirming carry incentives.Manage yen/dollar options (volatility) and foreign exchange positions, and the cost of hedging overseas assets.Adjust strategies by sector (export vs domestic) upon announcements of specific fiscal spending (scale and targets) by the Japanese government.
2) Walmart and Ripple: The Signal for Real-world Payment Adoption — How Does It Work?
What happened
Walmart’s fintech subsidiary OnePay is pursuing a plan to revamp its payment infrastructure using Ripple (XRP) technology.Collaborating with ZeroSi (a digital asset infrastructure company) to connect Ripple’s issued stablecoins (Ripple USD, etc.) and blockchain-based payment network with the OnePay app.Users can hold and pay with cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, etc.) within the app and convert them to dollars instantly during in-store payments.
Why it’s important (impact)
Walmart has a global distribution network with 150 million weekly users.If payments are fully implemented, it can serve as a catalyst for blockchain payments to expand into real-world payments.It can mark a turning point where cryptocurrencies move beyond being an ‘investment tool’ to becoming a ‘payment and payment infrastructure.’
Market reaction and practical constraints
Immediate positive impact on the investment sentiment of XRP and cryptocurrencies overall.However, execution requires addressing complex on-and-off ramps (liquidity providers, market makers), managing price volatility, and ensuring regulatory and KYC/AML compliance.While adoption by major retailers speeds up the proliferation, issues related to slippage, fees, and legal compliance are likely to surface during actual payments.
3) Ripple Joining the Fed Payment Task Force — The Crossroads of Regulation and Infrastructure
Significance and Background
Ripple’s participation in the Fed-led ‘Faster Payments Task Force’ is a first-of-its-kind case for a blockchain company.Acknowledged as an official discussion partner alongside the Fed, banks, and card companies for Ripple’s cross-border remittance and payment technology.
Implications
Engagement in discussions with central banks and large banks increases the likelihood of Ripple’s technology being adopted for payment infrastructure modernization.If linked with central bank payment networks (or large bank networks), it accelerates the institutional absorption of digital assets.However, participation does not necessarily equate to full regulatory approval or resolution of XRP’s security classification.
4) The Most Important Content the Media Overlooks
1) Operational Challenges in Liquidity Provision
For ‘holding cryptocurrency and instantly converting it to dollars for payment’ in actual store payments, market makers providing massive liquidity and price stabilization mechanisms are needed.A lack of liquidity or consecutive large payment volumes can lead to slippage, payment failures, and disputes.
2) The Regulatory Compliance Shadows (SEC, FinCEN, etc.)Ripple’s participation in Fed discussions is a positive signal but the differences in interpretation among US and global regulators persist.Particular issues include whether XRP is a ‘security,’ the issuance and collateral structure of stablecoins, and AML compliance.
3) The Paradox of Centralization in Payment Infrastructure
While there is high expectation that blockchain adoption will decentralize financial infrastructure, adoption by large retailers and leading payment providers may actually result in the digitalization of a centralized payment ecosystem.
4) Accelerated Possibility for Central Banks and CBDCs
The adoption of digital payments by large private companies increases the pressure on central banks to digitalize (CBDC) public currency to maintain control.Thus, the private-led proliferation of digital payments may actually expedite central bank digitalization roadmaps.
5) Global Risk Transfer if Yen Depreciation Continues
Continued yen depreciation can cause abrupt volatility in global interest-sensitive assets (stocks, bonds, commodities) through capital flows and expanded carry trade.The risk of shock transmission to highly leveraged hedge funds and credit-linked products is significant.
5) Implications from an AI and Technology Trends Perspective
The Role of AI in the Payment and Financial Markets
Automating risk management: AI predicts real-time price changes and liquidity shocks for hedging and smart routing.Fraud detection: AI blocks suspicious transactions in real-time in large-scale payment networks.Dynamic fee and exchange rate optimization: Machine learning determines optimal on/off ramp transition timing.Automating regulatory compliance (RegTech): AI streamlines KYC/AML for scalability.
Future of Payments: Blockchain + AI = Real-time, Secure Payment Network
Large retailers’ adoption of blockchain becomes a stable and scalable payment system when combined with AI-based real-time payment routing and risk management solutions.
6) Investment and Risk Management Points (Practical Checklist)
Short-term (1~6 months)
Monitor yen/dollar, Japanese government bonds, and interest rate spreads — measure the intensity of carry trade.Track XRP and payment-related cryptocurrency news and liquidity indicators (exchange order books, etc.).Prepare for volatility spikes by securing liquidity (cash, dollars, short-term bonds).
Medium-term (6~24 months)
Evaluate the sustainability of Japan’s fiscal policy — track government budgets and bond issuance plans.Monitor the Walmart-Ripple commercialization progress (pilot regions, merchant expansions, etc.).Observe regulatory changes (SEC, financial guidelines) and central bank responses to CBDCs.
Portfolio Strategy
Hedging: Manage currency risk using currency and options.
Exposure adjustment: Actively and selectively expose firms benefiting from yen depreciation, global retail, and payment infrastructure-related stocks.
Alternative assets: Limit the size of positions in cryptocurrencies considering liquidity and legal risks.
< Summary >
- Takaichi’s inauguration reaffirms fiscal expansion and monetary easing, triggering yen depreciation and the resurgence of the N carry trade, indicating potential Nikkei strength and global leverage expansion.
- Walmart’s OnePay adoption of Ripple technology signals the ‘real-world payment’ of cryptocurrencies, albeit with existing liquidity, regulatory, and technical challenges.
- Ripple’s participation in the Fed payment task force raises the potential for institutional entry but leaves the legal status of XRP and stablecoin regulations uncertain.
- Key overlooked risks by the media: liquidity provision, regulatory compliance, the centralization paradox of payment infrastructure, and accelerated central bank responses.
- AI will be a pivotal tool in payments and risk management — playing a core role in real-time risk prediction, fraud detection, and dynamic hedging and exchange optimization.
[Related Posts…]The Practical Significance of Ripple Payment Adoption and Walmart Partnership — Analyzing from Liquidity and Regulatory PerspectivesGlobal Impact of Takaichi’s Leadership and Yen’s Weakness — Assessing the Risks of Carry Trades
