• The core issue of the bereaved families’ lawsuit is the “discoverability of the emergency release” and the operational reliability during a power loss.
• The ESS alliance with Samsung SDI accelerates Tesla’s transformation into an energy platform by integrating with AI data centers and renewable energy.
• The preparation for 24-hour robo-taxi operations signals the commercialization of the operational system, with success hinging on uptime, safety, and regulations.
• The FSD gifting feature is expected to contribute to expanding software margins by lowering CAC through a viral mechanism.
• Space-grade AI chips promise a compute architecture that overcomes power and cooling limitations, opening up the possibility for vertical integration with SpaceX.

[Related Articles…]

• The Economics of Data Center ESS Opened by the Tesla-Samsung SDI ‘Energy Alliance’
• 24-Hour Robo-Taxi Commercialization Checklist: Regulations, Profitability, Operational Metrics

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

● Microsoft IREN 9.7B AI Shock, Power Race Sparks Data Center Frenzy

Wall Street Checkpoint: MS-IREN $9.7 Billion Mega Contract, S&P500 83% Earnings Surprise, and Shutdown Black Friday?

Key Points to Watch in This Article

It structurally explains where the ‘real money flows’ from Microsoft’s 5-year, $9.7 billion AI infrastructure deal with IREN will lead.

It summarizes why 83% of S&P500 companies beat EPS expectations and how to evaluate valuations amid widening gaps between stock prices and performance.

It provides a news-style quick understanding of the implications that a prolonged government shutdown has on employment indicators, GDP, and the interest rate trajectory.

It maps the supply chain bottlenecks of AI capital expenditures, including data center power, cooling, and transformer lead times, from a practical investment perspective—points not often discussed elsewhere.

US Market Opening Tone: AI Giants Leading the Index

At the market open, the Nasdaq started with about a 1% gain, driven by Nvidia reaching an all-time high and Amazon surging in the 5% range, pushing the index higher.

The S&P500 opened higher, while the Dow and Russell showed mixed results, reaffirming the tilt toward large-cap tech stocks.

AI-related stocks like Palantir and Micron remained strong, and Meta showed a recovery from some of its previous losses.

The key message is that the stock market is still betting on the combination of AI momentum and strong earnings power along the ‘Quality + Growth’ axis.

Earnings Season Briefing: 83% of the S&P500 Beat on EPS

As of October 31, 83% of reporting companies surpassed EPS consensus, and 79% exceeded sales expectations.

This represents strong upside, surpassing the 5-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 75%, with an average earnings surprise margin of about 4%, higher than the past average of 3.5%.

Among sectors, infotech, healthcare, and energy drove earnings improvements and contributed significantly to the index.

However, since the mid-2024 period, the widening gap between stock prices and forward EPS indicates that a valuation re-assessment is in order.

The current 12-month forward PER of the S&P500 is around 23 times, higher than the 10-year average of 18.6 times, which makes it sensitive to the interest rate and inflation trajectory.

AI Capital Expenditure Supercycle: The Rationale for ‘Investing Where You Can See It’

Big tech companies are aggressively expanding capital expenditures on data centers and cloud, and unlike the dot-com era, their earnings and revenue are growing in tandem.

Amazon has presented plans to double its data center capacity over the next two years alongside accelerating its cloud revenue.

Meta has maintained its CAPEX aggression, yet short-term results visibility issues have increased its stock volatility.

Microsoft has chosen a strategy that drives both external AI compute procurement and internal cloud growth by signing a 5-year, $9.7 billion AI infrastructure partnership with IREN.

IREN is a large data center operator in North America, expanding its capacity to provide AI compute based on high-performance accelerators.

The key is ‘who secures how many chips and who holds the power capacity,’ and this contract partially provides an answer to that question.

There is significant leverage in terms of memory (HBM) and storage, as well as power infrastructure.

In Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are being revalued as beneficiaries of the AI cycle, while in the US, bets on Micron’s improved market conditions are gaining strength.

Short-Term Risks and Responses: Three Factors Identified by Morgan Stanley

First, if the pace of interest rate cuts slows amid the heavy valuation burden, there could be a risk of multiple contraction.

Second, if signals of stress in the fundraising market reemerge, volatility among growth stocks may increase.

Third, if the market continues to narrow its focus (heavy concentration in large tech stocks), even if the index holds, the realized returns could weaken.

The strategic point is to overweight firms that can defend their multiples with strong earnings and cash flows, while adjusting position beta around key interest rate events.

Policy Risks: The Possibility and Implications of an Extended Shutdown

There is an increasing bet that political negotiation difficulties will lead to a shutdown extending until Black Friday (November 28).

If the shutdown is prolonged, gaps in official indicators such as employment reports will occur, making it harder for the Fed to gauge interest rate decisions, and increasing market volatility.

Q3 GDP growth slowed to 2.8% (annualized), and the impact of the shutdown is likely to be more fully reflected in figures from after October.

The interaction among the pace of easing inflation, the interest rate trajectory, and GDP momentum will determine the strength of the year-end rally.

Calendar Check: Major Earnings and Events

This week, earnings from Palantir, AMD, Uber, Shopify, Qualcomm, and ARM, among others in the AI, consumer, and mobility sectors, are packed closely together.

Attention should be paid to CAPEX, cloud demand, AI workload mix, and advertising cycle signals in the earnings guidance.

Alternative indicators like ADP employment and PMI should be monitored as supplements during this gap in official indicators.

Sector Idea: Structural Growth in the US School Bus Electrification Market

There are about 480,000 school buses operating in the US, and although the proportion of electric school buses is still low, subsidies and regulations are accelerating their adoption.

The overall market grows at 4~5% per year, while electric school buses are recording high growth rates of 25~33% annually.

BlueBird (BLBD), having supplied over 2,000 units to date, has secured industry leadership, making it one of the most clearly positioned stocks to benefit from policy drives.

Key variables for mid- to long-term margin improvements include power infrastructure, charging, battery residual value, and the residual value model.

The ‘Most Important Point’ Not Addressed Elsewhere

• Connecting the dots of AI capital expenditure distribution: Chip (Accelerator) → HBM/DRAM → Substrate/Foundry → Power Facilities (Transformers and Switchgear) → Cooling (Immersion/Water Cooling) → Data Center Land/Real Estate.
• The current bottleneck is not just the chips: Transformer lead times, grid expansion, water-cooled modules, and high-voltage cables are all concurrently tight.
• The true asset of data centers is the ‘power capacity’: The operator that secures power first leads in rental rates and margins.
• The paradox of indicator gaps: During a shutdown, noise in official employment/GDP figures increases, and signals for quant and macro funds can become unreliable.
• Investment points for Korea: HBM and advanced packaging, power semiconductors, immersion/water cooling components, and ultra-high voltage transformer chains all benefit simultaneously.

Practical Checklist

• Valuation: Consider the set of interest rate direction and multiples, focusing on core stocks with sustained upward revisions in performance.
• Cash Flow: Prioritize companies with clear timelines for revenue realization, even if they benefit from AI CAPEX.
• Risk Management: Adjust beta positions before and after policy events (shutdown, FOMC) and check for market breadth recovery as a benchmark.
• Simultaneous Review of Leaders/ Ecosystems: The duration of the cycle is determined by whether big tech (demand) and HBM, power, and cooling (supply) move in tandem.

One-Line Summary from a Korean Investor’s Perspective

Following the ‘path of cash flow’ of the AI supercycle reveals an extended map of beneficiaries, from semiconductor memory and packaging to data center power, cooling, and real estate.

While interest rates, inflation, and shutdown factors affect the speed, there is insufficient evidence to suggest they will change the overall direction.

< Summary >

The MS-IREN $9.7 billion deal shows that the competition to secure AI compute and power capacity is entering full swing.

83% of the S&P500 beat EPS expectations, and while valuations are high, earnings help defend them.

An extended shutdown creates gaps in indicators and adds noise to interest rate and GDP trajectories.

The key investment takeaway is the speed at which bottlenecks—from chips to HBM to power to cooling to land—are being resolved and which operators secure power capacity.

[Related Articles…]

• AI Data Center Power Crisis: The Investment Key is in Power Capacity
• S&P500 Earnings Surprises and Valuations: The Sector Opening the Next Cycle

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

● Palantir Skyrockets, Commercial Boom Sparks AI Monopoly

Palantir, Rule of 40 at 114% · The True Meaning of a 121% Surge in U.S. Commercial Sales and the Conclusion of the “Stock Is About to Drop” Debate

This article dissects the numbers behind overachievement, the qualitative change in commercial sales with a 121% surge, the mechanism by which a surge in RPO translates into next year’s revenue, the essence of the collaboration between NVIDIA and Ontology, the checklist for signals that “the stock is about to drop” in an overvalued range, and the scenario linking macro variables such as interest rates, inflation, and GDP with the stock market.

It also separately summarizes the practical implications of “domain lock-in created by AIP” and “SaaS restructuring triggered by LLM operational systemization,” which other media have only briefly mentioned.

Earnings Breaking: Let the Numbers Speak First

EPS of $0.21 surpassed the consensus of $0.17 by more than 20%.

Revenues exceeded expectations by approximately 10%, registering a double-digit surprise.

The stock price rose about 3% on the main market and continued to climb in after-hours trading, but the surge was limited due to an overbought condition already reflected.

The Rule of 40 reached 114%, reaffirming its high level while proving both growth and profitability.

U.S. commercial sales surged by 121% year-over-year, and government sales increased by 52%, confirming the dual engine.

Why Did the Stock Only Rise by 3% Despite “Superb Earnings”?

Expectations had already been priced in before the earnings, which led to high valuation multiples.

When the numbers are too strong, a ‘good news is sell-the-news’ pattern triggers short-term profit-taking.

Uncertainty over macro interest rate levels and the pace of inflation slowdown is temporarily restraining the expansion of growth stock multiples.

In conclusion, the interpretation is that the direction is upward but at a moderated pace.

AIP and Ontology: Palantir’s Domain Lock-In

AIP lowers the adoption barrier by enabling non-developers to design workflows through the LLM layer.

Palantir Ontology embeds an organization’s unique rules, processes, and data relationships into the software, turning it into an enterprise-wide operational standard.

This “structured anchoring” is a true entry barrier that is difficult for competitors to replicate and serves as a source of ROI.

The collaboration with NVIDIA enables the Ontology model to run with GPU acceleration and in edge environments, expanding it to real-time decision-making.

SaaS Landscape Transformation: When LLM Essentially Becomes the Operating System

When general-purpose LLMs replace simple apps, shallow SaaS functionalities are likely to be integrated or become obsolete.

The two conditions for surviving AI services are vertical integration based on domain expertise and a refined user experience.

Palantir has met both conditions by anchoring domains with Ontology and expanding usability through AIP.

Contract Backlog and Revenue Visibility: “Next Year’s Numbers” Are Already in Place

Over 50 large contracts exceeding $10 million have been secured, qualitatively improving the pipeline.

The remaining performance obligations and total contract value surged by 342% year-over-year, piling up substantial future revenue.

This serves as a shield to defend revenue visibility even during an economic downturn.

Macro Variables Check: Linking Interest Rates, Inflation, and GDP with the Stock Market

If high interest rates persist, growth stock multiples may be pressured; however, companies like Palantir that improve cash flow and margins display relative strength.

In a scenario of reheated inflation, AI projects that directly boost productivity within IT spending will be prioritized in budgets, enhancing defense.

If GDP growth slows down, new customer acquisition might decelerate, but cost-saving applications could accelerate adoption.

The stock market is sensitive to the Fed’s stance and a strong dollar, so positioning should account for volatility around the 10-year Treasury yield and CPI announcement week.

Qualitative Indicators: Confirming the ‘Quality’ Behind the Numbers

The 121% growth in commercial sales signifies customer diversification and the expansion of use cases.

The 52% increase in government sales indicates that references in the defense and public sectors are acting as trust signals for private sector expansion.

The productized AIP adoption period has shortened to about five weeks, and the realized ROI is evident in the numbers.

Risks and Defensive Logic

High valuations may lead to increased beta during interest rate shocks or stock market corrections.

Dependence on large clients and risks associated with long-term contract renewals must be continually monitored.

Heightened competition from open-source and hyperscaler AI toolkits could result in margin pressures.

However, the Ontology-based lock-in, rapid deployment, and adherence to security and compliance standards provide a valid defensive rationale.

Short-Term “Stock Is About to Drop” Checklist vs. Mid-Term Outlook

Delta hedging positions around option expirations and post-earnings unwinding can amplify short-term volatility.

Triggers for a stock adjustment include U.S. CPI/PCE announcements and a rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield.

However, as long as RPO and commercial adoption rates continue and the Rule of 40 is maintained, the mid-term upward scenario remains valid.

The Most Important Point Rarely Addressed Elsewhere

Ontology creates a “data seat.”

Once it becomes a standard, an organization’s decision-making framework increasingly relies on the platform, exponentially increasing switching costs.

There are signs that AIP pricing is being restructured from “per seat” to “workflow/performance-based,” suggesting significant potential for price increases.

The expansion of edge inference and OT network intersections will drive structural market share gains in manufacturing and energy sectors.

Under accounting standards, high remaining performance obligations mitigate quarterly revenue volatility and enhance guidance credibility.

Investment Checklist and Timing Guide

The key KPIs are the net increase in U.S. commercial customers, RPO growth rate, adjusted operating margin, cash flow margin, and the shortened implementation period.

On the macro side, monitoring involves confirming if interest rates have peaked, maintaining a trend of slowing inflation, and checking for GDP surprises.

Technically, a partial approach at the earnings gap support zone and re-confirmation after a high breakout is considered rational.

One-Line Conclusion

The numbers indicate “high-quality growth,” and although short-term volatility may occur, the long-term compounding story driven by domain lock-in and AIP expansion remains in progress.

< Summary >

EPS and revenue significantly exceeded consensus, and a Rule of 40 at 114% reinforces both profitability and growth.

A 121% surge in U.S. commercial sales and a 342% increase in RPO offer high revenue visibility for the next year.

The collaboration with NVIDIA signifies the expansion of Ontology into edge computing, further strengthening domain lock-in.

While short-term corrections might occur due to macro factors such as interest rates, inflation, or GDP, the relative strength within the stock market is likely to be maintained.

The key lies in the structural margin generated by “structured anchoring” and “workflow-based pricing.”

[Related Articles…]

How the NVIDIA-Palantir Collaboration Will Change the Next Phase of the Enterprise AI Stack

The Conditions for Vertical Integration SaaS to Survive When LLM Replaces the App Store

*Source: [ 월텍남 – 월스트리트 테크남 ]