● Kioxia Shock Triggers Nasdaq Meltdown, NAND Panic Amid AI and Rate Turmoil
The Real Trigger of Nasdaq’s Plunge: Kioxia’s Earnings Shock, NAND Uncertainty, and the Intersection of AI & Interest Rates
This article covers four elements.
1) The earnings miss and guidance gap of ‘Kioxia’ that truly shook the market beyond surface materials.
2) The misunderstandings and truths of AI data centers and NAND flash demand.
3) The structural background of the Nasdaq correction and the sector rotation point.
4) The data calendar and investment checklist to check immediately.
Breaking News Summary: What Happened in the Market Today
The Nasdaq fell by about 2% during the session, leading to a correction primarily in tech stocks.
High-value growth stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and Tesla fell sharply.
In contrast, healthcare/big pharma showed relative strength, signaling sector rotation.
Although the U.S. federal government shutdown was lifted, the schedule for updates from statistical agencies like the BLS became uncertain.
Investors reassessed the interest rate path amid gaps in employment and inflation indicators, causing Nasdaq volatility to widen.
The key trigger was identified as Kioxia’s disappointing earnings and lack of subsequent guidance, shaking the investment sentiment centered on memory semiconductors.
Surface Reasons vs. the Real Culprit: Why Did ‘Kioxia’ Shake the Market?
The surface reasons are familiar.
They include rotation from the tech sector, uncertainty over interest rates due to data gaps, and valuation risks.
However, the part that truly shook the market was Kioxia’s earnings and the subsequent “absence of signals.”
The earnings, in terms of both revenue and EPS, fell short of expectations, and no forward guidance was provided.
This was interpreted as low visibility in the memory cycle, casting doubt on the entire NAND flash investment thesis.
Over the past six months, expectations related to Kioxia had soared by more than 400%, which led to strong reversal pressures.
As a result, doubts about whether “NAND demand and prices are truly recovering” spread throughout the semiconductor industry.
Kioxia and a Deep Dive into the NAND Market: Between the Hype of AI and Reality
NAND flash is widely used in products ranging from smartphones and PC SSDs to data center storage devices.
It is true that investments in data centers have increased due to the AI boom, leading to increased demand for storage devices.
However, the cost structure of AI servers is overwhelmingly dependent on DRAMs such as HBM, and NAND results can vary greatly depending on workload characteristics.
As large-scale inference expands more than training, the number of high-performance NVMe SSDs is increasing.
However, customer companies (hyperscalers) tend to first allocate capital to their networking, GPU, and power infrastructure.
This means there is a timing issue where AI investments do not directly translate into NAND performance.
In 2023, NAND prices attempted to recover from lows in 2024 due to supply cuts, but a rapid acceleration in demand was not clearly confirmed.
Changes in mix—such as contract prices following the spot, the transition to high-capacity QLC and PCIe 5.0, and adoption of form factors like E1.S/E3.S—became more important.
Kioxia’s lack of guidance only heightened uncertainties regarding this “mix and timing.”
A sense of caution has spread across the industry, including among peers such as Western Digital’s SanDisk-branded SSDs, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix.
The Structure of the Nasdaq Correction: Simultaneous Pressure from Interest Rates, Inflation, and Valuation
The data gap makes it difficult to gauge the Fed’s interest rate path.
If the pace of inflation moderation is not confirmed, long-term rate volatility will increase, and the discount pressures on growth stocks will intensify.
The moment when the confidence in earnings from high-valuation, AI/semiconductor-led stocks weakens, multiple revaluation adjustments will occur immediately.
The rotation into healthcare reflects a preference for defensive sectors and a premium on regulatory stability and visible cash flow.
What Other Media Missed Today
First, the reallocation effect of AI budgets.
From 2024 to 2025, hyperscalers are focusing their budgets on GPUs, HBMs, power grids, and optical cables.
This means that storage capacity expansion may be delayed in stages, which could be the underlying reason for the lack of NAND guidance.
Second, it is a transitional period for SSD specification changes.
In the shift from PCIe 4.0 to 5.0 and from standard to E1.S/E3.S form factors, the customer verification period is prolonged, and orders tend to come in “lumps.”
Without guidance, it is rational for suppliers to respond conservatively.
Third, NAND has a “highly elastic” pricing structure.
Even small changes in demand can cause significant price movements, exaggerating the earnings leverage.
This correction may signal a normalization in a segment that had been overly anticipated.
Checklist: What to Verify Immediately
1) The discrepancy between NAND contract prices and the spot price.
Once contracts start following the spot price, earnings visibility will improve.
2) The breakdown of Capex by hyperscalers.
Check when and to what extent the storage share recovers compared to GPUs.
3) Comments on production cuts or expansions from major suppliers.
Changes in wafer input from Samsung, SK Hynix, and the Western Digital/Kioxia joint venture could mark the price bottom.
4) U.S. interest rates and inflation indicators.
CPI, PPI, and employment must continuously moderate for the premium on growth stocks to return.
5) Inventory levels and lead times.
If SSD lead times increase and customer inventory days decrease, it signals an upward cycle.
Scenario Planning: A 2-Week to 1-Quarter View
Baseline scenario.
Once the data gap is resolved and inflation moderates gradually, the narrative of peaking interest rates will recover.
Semi conductors will rebound first with HBM/logic/network-centric segments rather than memory, followed by NAND recovering with improved mix.
Risk scenario.
If service inflation accelerates again or long-term rates spike, additional multiple de-rating on high-value AI-related stocks is possible.
If NAND suppliers resume capacity expansion too quickly, the price recovery may be delayed.
Upside scenario.
If large-scale inference workloads expand and the adoption of high-capacity QLC SSDs accelerates simultaneously from the second half of the year, NAND shipment bit growth could occur faster than expected.
Positioning Ideas (For Information Purposes Only)
Volatility in pure NAND leveraged stocks, which had excessive expectations, may continue to be high.
Value chain segments with clear earnings and cash flow visibility (networking, power infrastructure, HBM materials/equipment) could be relatively defensive.
It is reasonable to approach NAND in a piecemeal fashion once signals for price and mix improvements emerge.
Let’s gradually confirm if the Nasdaq correction transitions into a normalization of multiples along with stable interest rates, especially before and after upcoming data releases.
Quick Facts: A One-Page Summary of Terms and Related Entities
NAND Flash.
A type of non-volatile memory and the core component of SSDs.
Kioxia.
A proven NAND leader spun off from Toshiba Memory, currently in a joint venture with Western Digital.
SanDisk.
A brand of Western Digital, referring to its lineup of consumer SSD/memory products.
Conclusion: This Decline Is a Visibility Issue, Not a “Demand Boom”
The core of the Nasdaq correction lies in the triple pressure of growth stock valuations, interest rates, and reduced visibility in the memory cycle.
Kioxia’s earnings miss and the lack of guidance have exposed the timing risk in NAND.
While long-term AI demand remains robust, budget allocation and the transitional period for specification changes delay the confirmation of earnings.
Until data returns and signals for price and mix improvements appear, a selective and focused approach is necessary.
< Summary >
The catalyst for the Nasdaq decline was Kioxia’s earnings shock and lack of guidance.
Although AI demand remains robust, NAND suffers from issues related to budgets and specification transitions, reducing visibility.
Uncertainty in interest rates and inflation intensified multiple revaluations.
It is reasonable to approach NAND after confirming signals on pricing, contracts, and mix improvements, while in the short term, value chains with clear visibility such as HBM and networking may be more advantageous.
[Related Articles…]
- The Real Structure of AI Data Center Capex: GPU vs Storage
- The Next Variable in the Memory Supercycle: NAND Prices and Interest Rates
*Source: [ 내일은 투자왕 – 김단테 ]
– 나스닥 폭락의 진짜 범인
● Shutdown Shock, Tech Bloodbath, AI Infrastructure Frenzy
Even After Shutdown Ends, Tech Stocks Remain Weak, Disney Plummets, and a Surge in AI Infrastructure Demand Confirmed by Cisco – All Summarized at Once
Today’s article includes the real shock of the U.S. government shutdown ending after 43 days, the details behind Disney’s “movie slump vs. streaming and parks holding up,” and the key beneficiary points of the AI infrastructure cycle reconfirmed by Cisco’s performance.
It also organizes insights on Michael Burry’s advisory registration termination issue and the signal it sent to market sentiment, as well as the interplay between crypto, stablecoins, and interest rates, so that these can be used directly in investment strategies.
It separately summarizes seldom-discussed topics such as “data gap risk, the transition of AI bottlenecks, the structure of increased streaming ARPU, and secondary benefits in power and networking backends.”
Focusing on keywords such as interest rates, inflation, recession, exchange rates, and the Fed, it will quickly deconstruct today’s market.
Today’s New York Market Briefing: Weak Momentum and Valuation Pressure
According to Eastern U.S. time, on the morning of November 13, the Nasdaq fell by around 1%, with tech stocks leading the weakness.
The S&P 500 also fell in tandem, and while the Dow was strong, it ultimately trailed into a near-flat performance.
Nvidia experienced a correction in the 3% range, and Tesla fell by about 4%, reconfirming the valuation pressures across major tech stocks.
It seems reasonable to view this period not as a fading AI momentum but as a simultaneous process of high-valuation controversy and an adjustment of expectations relative to performance.
The Fed’s reduced bets on further rate cuts have also diluted the premium factors.
Uncertainty about the interest rate path, debates over the pace of inflation slowdown, and the re-evaluation of recession risks are the three factors intensifying short-term volatility.
With the possibility of a reactivation of dollar strength during risk-off periods in exchange rates, volatility defense strategies for dollar-sensitive sectors are necessary.
43-Day Longest U.S. Government Shutdown Ends: Impacts and the Next Deadline
According to local reports, the 43-day shutdown ended with the passage of a temporary budget.
There is speculation in the market that the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 may temporarily be cut by about 1.5 percentage points.
Unpaid work and scaled-back operations of air traffic control personnel led to accumulating flight disruptions, and negative noise has built up in the momentum of demand for airline and travel stocks.
Delays in low-income support programs like food stamps have been viewed as having adversely affected consumer sentiment.
Since data production halted, there have been delays or gaps in the publication of some indicators, and concerns have been raised about the uncertainty surrounding the October CPI calculation in the market.
Normalization may take several days to weeks, and the next shutdown deadline is suggested to be January 30, which is close to “risk deferral.”
Although the Fed will maintain its data-dependent policy, the data gap could make the Fed’s communication on rate decisions more conservative.
Under conditions of policy uncertainty, the exchange rate may see a reactivation of a strong dollar, so caution should be exercised regarding increased volatility in emerging markets.
Michael Burry: Advisory Registration Termination and Market Sentiment
Michael Burry directly announced the termination of his advisory registration, making it likely that he will transition to a family office instead of managing external funds.
Following recent short position issues regarding companies such as Nvidia and Palantir, he has been mentioned as a trigger for a turning point in market sentiment, and there have been speculations on redemption pressure on Wall Street.
The key point is not the netting of positions but the psychological effect of “large investors’ public positions” triggering portfolio rebalancing among both individual and institutional investors.
From an investor’s perspective, this serves as an opportunity to review hedging/taking-profit rules during periods of excessive volatility before and after a disclosure event.
Disney Performance: The Dichotomy of Movie Slump vs. Streaming, Parks, and Cruises Holding Up
Disney’s entertainment segment operating profit reportedly decreased by about 35% compared to the same period last year, causing the stock to plunge by 6–8%.
While box office revenue was adversely affected by the lack of hit movies in the recent quarter, streaming (DTC) revenue increased by about 8% and operating profit by about 39%, demonstrating an improvement in its structural fundamentals.
As Disney+ gained net subscribers and Hulu was combined, the total subscription base remained robust, and price increases boosted ARPU.
Meanwhile, theme parks and cruises reportedly achieved record quarterly operating profits of around $1.9 billion and annual figures of approximately $10 billion.
Across the streaming industry, the key issue has become the expansion of ARPU driven by subscription fee increases compared to 2019, with live sports content being at the forefront of preventing churn.
From an investment perspective, the key is a portfolio shift that uses the cash flow from streaming and parks to offset the volatility of movie box office performance, and that the execution of sports broadcasting rights and bundling strategies is the key to reducing valuation discounts.
It is important to check multi-layered factors such as the ability to pass on prices in an inflationary environment, demand elasticity during a recession, and the impact of exchange rates.
Cisco’s Strong Performance: Concrete Evidence of a Surge in AI Infrastructure Demand
In the after-hours performance, Cisco’s networking product orders continued to grow in double digits compared to last year, leading to a roughly 7% surge in premarket trading.
The expansion of hyperscalers’ data centers proved that the story of GPUs alone was not sufficient, as confirmed by orders for switches, routers, optical modules, cables, and other networking equipment.
Cisco’s commentary confirmed that AI projects are transitioning from the “pilot” stage to “large-scale deployment,” converting into actual equipment orders.
However, the precedent of Cisco’s overvaluation during the dot-com bubble of 2000 serves as a reminder that even if growth is realized, buying at too high a price may take 10–20 years to recover.
Currently, in the AI big tech and infrastructure chain, it is necessary to concurrently assess valuation and cash flow alignment, sensitivity to the Fed’s interest rate path, and the risk of the cycle peaking.
A “shovel and pickaxe” strategy entails increasing exposure to secondary and tertiary beneficiaries such as networking, power infrastructure, cooling, and transformer/switchgear stocks that benefit from grid reinforcement.
Crypto and Interest Rates: The Paradox of Stablecoin Issuers
While Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing short-term corrections, stablecoin issuers (e.g., USDC) are showing vulnerabilities due to interest rate declines in their revenue structure.
With their reserves primarily held in short-term government bonds, they are highly dependent on interest income, and their margins get compressed as the Fed cuts rates.
In other words, even if a strong crypto bull market arrives, there is no guarantee that the profitability of stablecoin issuers will improve simultaneously.
For these issuers, diversification into non-interest income sources such as B2B payments, on-chain fee-based services, custodial wallets, and cross-border remittances is key.
Investors must differentiate between “crypto prices” and “the profitability of stablecoin issuers” in framing their risks.
Position Strategy Checklist: Execution Tips for This Week
In phases where valuation discounts are widening, check the weightings of cash cows with high earnings visibility and defensive sectors.
Within the AI infrastructure chain, a bottom-up approach that increases exposure to networking maintenance and support in power/grid sectors with low cycle peak sensitivity is valid.
Prepare a basket for duration hedging in the long and short terms, dollar hedges, and low-cost VIX protective strategies in anticipation of increased interest rate and exchange rate volatility.
Quantify take-profit and stop-loss rules for event-driven volatility (policy, disclosures, earnings) to reduce emotional interference.
The Most Important Point Often Overlooked in Other YouTube Channels or News Outlets
There is a significant risk from data gaps.
If the shutdown leads to delays or omissions in the release of statistics, the input values for macro and quant models could be distorted, triggering false signals in algorithmic trading and magnifying volatility.
The AI bottleneck is shifting from GPUs to networking, power, and cooling.
The limit to capital expenditure (Capex) in 2025 may depend more on power connectivity, switching, and optical interconnects rather than chips.
The expansion of streaming ARPU will come not just from simple price increases but through a mix of bundling, sports, and advertising tiers.
The integration of sports betting and commerce represents the next step to further boost LTV.
Stablecoin issuers should be viewed as “interest rate-sensitive financial stocks.”
It is important not to overlook that the Fed’s rate cuts could simultaneously reduce the industry’s gross profit margins.
The power grid is the true constraint.
Competition for landing sites for large data centers is shifting from land to securing megawatts of power, and the lead times for transformers, switchgear, and cables will dictate the cycle length.
Market Calendar and Checkpoints
Following the shutdown, prioritize macro variables such as the speed of statistical normalization, whether October’s indicators will be supplemented, and the tone of Fed communications.
Check the Capex and AI infrastructure investment plans, exchange rate sensitivity, and inventory turnover in the guidance from major tech stocks.
Monitor updates on pricing and bundling policies in the streaming industry as well as news on sports broadcasting rights bids and related flows.
Index and Sector Snapshot (Summary Tone)
Nasdaq is weak, the S&P 500 is declining in tandem, and the Dow is nearly flat – the overall direction is risk-off.
Semiconductors and megacap tech stocks are in correction, while networking and some infrastructure stocks are holding up; however, airline and travel stocks continue to be weighed down by shutdown-related noise.
Crypto is in a phase of increased volatility, and if the dollar strengthens again, altcoins face a significant downside risk.
< Summary >
Although the shutdown is over, policy uncertainty remains unresolved due to data gaps and the January deadline.
Disney managed to defend itself through streaming and parks, despite a movie slump, while Cisco substantiated a surge in AI infrastructure demand through its performance.
The Burry issue triggered psychological volatility, and crypto and stablecoins need to be viewed separately in relation to the interest rate cycle.
The short-term strategy focuses on valuation and cash flow visibility, secondary benefits from power, networking, and grid backends, and hedging against interest rate and exchange rate volatility.
[Related Articles…]
Nvidia Correction and the Next Phase of the AI Infrastructure Investment Cycle
The Economics of Streaming Price Increases and Sports Broadcasting Rights
*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]
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