● Buffett’s Last Bet – Berkshire Buys Alphabet, AI Goldrush Upends Tech Order
Buffett’s ‘Virtually Last Bet’? Berkshire Hathaway, Sudden Inclusion of Alphabet (Google)… Conditions for a 10x Miracle and a Major AI Paradigm Shift
This article includes the following: ① The background behind Berkshire’s inclusion of Alphabet valued at $4 billion and a fact-check on “who bought it”, ② Five conditions needed for Apple’s 10x miracle to be recreated, ③ The evolving AI market share structure due to the meteoric rise of Gemini and its future monetization routes, ④ A risk map covering regulation, CAPEX, and TAC (Traffic Acquisition Cost), ⑤ A positioning guide for individual investors (Big 7, ETFs, staggered buying), ⑥ A comprehensive overview of the US stock market, global economic outlook, interest rates, and inflation variables.
Breaking News Summary: Berkshire’s Top 10 Portfolio, New Inclusion of Alphabet
– Scale: Estimated at approximately $4 billion (about 6 trillion won), instantly entering the top 10.
– Timing: Based on the 13F disclosure for the trailing quarter, it is estimated that positions were accumulated during the July–September period (estimated average price between $200–$220).
– Nature: It is not confirmed whether this was directly purchased by Buffett himself or executed by one of Berkshire’s successor managers (Todd/Ted). The key point is that it has been included within the “Berkshire risk framework”.
– Tech stocks structure: While Apple’s weighting has been reduced for the second consecutive year, Alphabet has been newly included in a “meaningful size”. Amazon has been held continuously since 2019.
– Market reaction: The new purchase by a major institution acts as a short-term psychological booster. However, note that the 13F is trailing data.
– Macro connection: As the US stock market enters a phase of easing interest rates and inflation, the preference for Big Tech companies with high “quality cash flow” is likely to continue.
Fact-Checking: 5 Things We Must Know
– The 13F is not real-time. It is disclosed quarterly on a trailing basis, so current positions may have changed.
– The buyer is not confirmed. It could be Buffett himself or one of Berkshire’s two managers.
– Class distinctions are undisclosed. Whether the shares are GOOGL (voting) versus GOOG (non-voting) is simply aggregated in the disclosure.
– The average price is an estimate. Most opinions estimate a range of $200–$220 based on the disclosed high and low of the quarter.
– Regulatory events are constant. Antitrust and digital regulations in the US and EU remain an inherent risk for Google.
Why Alphabet Now: Three Scenario Judgments by Buffett (or Berkshire)
– Scenario A (Consumer Staples Perspective): Search and YouTube are “quasi-essential consumer goods” that dominate daily usage. Despite not being cheap, it is believed that an opportunity to buy at a discount has arrived.
– Scenario B (Cash Alternative Perspective): With strong free cash flow (FCF), share repurchases, and surplus cash distribution capabilities, it is evaluated as a “defensive growth core.” There is potential for multiple re-rating as interest rates peak and begin to decline.
– Scenario C (AI Investment Perspective): Enhancements in Gemini, along with integrating AI into cloud, YouTube, and search, are set to reinforce three revenue routes: advertising, subscriptions, and enterprise.
Alphabet by the Numbers: Momentum and Turning Points
– Core business recovery: A steady recovery following the reopening of search and YouTube advertising, with improved Shorts advertising efficiency contributing to an increase in RPM.
– Cloud structure: After GCP turned profitable, it has entered a margin leverage phase. The influx of AI workloads may further increase ARPU.
– Capital expenditures (CAPEX): Although CAPEX is high due to the expansion of AI accelerators and data centers, long-term ROIC is expected to improve thanks to network effects.
– Share buybacks: An aggressive share repurchase policy based on strong cash generation acts as an accelerator for per-share compound value growth.
AI Paradigm Shift: Gemini’s Pursuit and Its ‘Upside Potential’
– Third-party estimated data indicates that the use of Gemini is set to expand rapidly starting in the second half of 2024.
– Some signals observed in prediction markets (e.g., PolyMarket) suggest that expectations for Gemini have increased, with bets placed on its high probability of future success.
– Implication: A player with established distribution channels such as search, YouTube, and Android OS can be the first to monetize improvements in model performance.
– Variables: The actual performance gap between models, GPU/TPU supply chains, partnerships (Apple/OEM), and issues related to privacy and copyright.
Conditions for Recreating Apple’s 10x: Five Requirements
– Condition 1: A structural increase in the advertising RPM of search and YouTube, proven through AI-based ad targeting and creative automation that boosts advertiser ROI.
– Condition 2: An established upward trend in GCP’s operating profit margin, secured by improvements in AI workload mix and ecosystem lock-in for mid-to-long term double-digit operating margins (OPM).
– Condition 3: The monetization of productivity SaaS (workspace, development tools, security) through the adoption of Gemini/agent tools, leading to expanded subscription Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR).
– Condition 4: Improved efficiency in TAC (Traffic Acquisition Cost), ensuring that the renewal conditions for default search contracts (especially with Apple) do not erode per-share value.
– Condition 5: Securing predictability in regulatory and copyright costs, providing outcomes that offset any stock discount from fines or structural corrective measures.
– Conclusion: When these five conditions are met cumulatively, simultaneous multiple re-rating and EPS growth become possible. It takes time, but this business structure is well-suited for the ‘compound interest game.’
Risk Map: Be Sure to Check
– Antitrust/Regulation: The costs from US DOJ lawsuits and compliance with EU DMA/DSA remain constant. In the worst-case scenario, business practices may need to change, putting pressure on margins.
– CAPEX Burden: The expansion of AI infrastructure increases the volatility of free cash flow (FCF). In a downturn, the payback period for investments could be extended.
– Rising TAC: There is a risk of increased unit costs in default search contracts (especially with Apple), and margin uncertainty due to changes in the traffic mix.
– Sensitivity to the Ad Market: Global inflation and interest rate trajectories can lead to changes in advertiser budgets, directly affecting short-term earnings volatility.
– Intensifying Competition: There is long-term model and platform competition from OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, Anthropic, and prolonged cross-licensing and ecosystem battles.
Macro Context: Connections with the US Stock Market, Interest Rates, and Inflation
– Interest Rates: Expectations for rates to peak and then gradually decline are favorable for resolving the “multiple discount.”
– Inflation: A gradual easing of service inflation can help boost advertiser sentiment and reduce the sensitivity of Big Tech’s sales.
– Dollar: A strong dollar can negatively impact the conversion of overseas sales, while a weaker dollar is a tailwind. Alphabet’s regional revenue mix should be considered.
– Global Economic Outlook: In an environment of low growth and high quality preferences, companies with strong cash flow, network effects, and unique datasets will continue to command a premium.
Another Angle from Buffett: Implications from Japan’s Top 5 Trading Companies’ ‘Long-run’
– With multiple engines such as a weak yen, raw materials, dividends/share repurchases, and improved governance, these companies have demonstrated a “defensive profit” position with double-digit average annual returns.
– Point: Berkshire is managing portfolio correlations by holding both growth-oriented Alphabet and defensive Japanese trading stocks.
Positioning Guide for Individual Investors (Not Investment Advice)
– Principle 1: Time diversification. Since the 13F is trailing, manage event risk with staggered buying.
– Principle 2: Stocks vs. ETFs. If you have low conviction on Alphabet, secure AI investment beta through Big 7 ETFs (such as MAGS) and slowly adjust your Alphabet weighting.
– Principle 3: Withstand risk. The promise of a 10x return comes with potential corrections of 30–50%. Define your loss tolerance numerically in advance.
– Principle 4: Checklist. Review regulatory news, CAPEX guidance, TAC estimates, GCP margins, and YouTube RPM/subscription growth rates on a quarterly basis.
Key Points for This Week/Short-Term Events
– Big Tech Earnings: The tone of guidance (sales growth, CAPEX, margins) may be more influential on stock direction.
– Semiconductor Supply Chain: Comments from Nvidia and TSMC serve as a “thermometer” for the AI infrastructure cycle. Keep an eye on these alongside Alphabet’s CAPEX guidance.
– Consumption Metrics: Comments from retail giants like Walmart and Home Depot serve as leading indicators for advertising budgets.
Key Points Often Overlooked by Other YouTube/News Sources
– Impact of TAC Renegotiations: Apple’s default search cost is a sensitive variable for Alphabet’s margins, and the “AI on iPhone” partnership structure provides a leading indicator for TAC.
– YouTube as a Quasi-Essential Consumer Service: A revenue model based on time share is increasingly recession-resistant, with ad restructuring in Shorts and CTV (living room screens) boosting RPM.
– The “Curse of Scale” and “Blessing of Scale” in AI Infrastructure: While high CAPEX and power costs are a downside initially, learning effects lead to a sharp decline in unit costs (Compute/Token) as scale increases.
– Signals from Prediction Markets: Crowd bets, such as those on PolyMarket, act as a “thermometer of sentiment.” Use them as contrarian hints only during extremes of exuberance or fear.
– Berkshire’s Portfolio Correlations: Holding both Alphabet (growth) and Japanese trading companies (defensive) is a practical strategy for mitigating downside volatility.
Conclusion: The ‘Buffett Effect’ Is More Than Just Psychology
– Alphabet is one of the rare players capable of simultaneously managing advertising, cloud, and AI.
– A 10x return is achieved through “time × stamina × checklist.” Follow the numbers quarterly and engage in the compound interest game.
– The major currents of the US stock market remain unchanged. In a phase of gradual normalization of interest rates and inflation, quality cash flow and network effects are the determining factors.
< Summary >
– Berkshire has newly included Alphabet at approximately $4 billion, propelling it into the top tier of its portfolio.
– The 13F is trailing data; the buyer and average price are estimates. The key is that it is included within Berkshire’s risk framework.
– The rise of Gemini signals an AI paradigm shift, reinforcing the triple revenue paths of YouTube, GCP, and search.
– Conditions for recreating 10x returns include: increased ad RPM, improved GCP margins, SaaS subscription monetization, TAC efficiency, and predictable regulatory costs.
– Risks include regulation, CAPEX, TAC, sensitivity to the ad market, and intensified competition. Counter these with staggered buying, ETFs, and a solid checklist.
– Macro: In a period of peaking interest rates and easing inflation, Big Tech companies with high-quality cash flow continue to command a premium.
Keywords: US stock market, global economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, AI investment
[Related Articles…]
Alphabet (Google) Momentum and AI Monetization Checkpoints
Warren Buffett’s Portfolio Changes and Macro Environmental Impacts
*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]
– 버핏의 은퇴 전 마지막 베팅은 구글? 10배 수익률 이번에도 달성할까
● Engineered Jobs Crash, Liquidity Bonanza
After the Shutdown: “Employment Shock,” Trump’s Liquidity Strategy, and the 2025–2026 Scenario Post-QT Termination.
This article contains a comprehensive view of the 22-year employment shock as seen through private employment indicators.
It explains in detail the policy mechanism by which Trump’s “intentional employment recession” connects to rate cuts and liquidity injections.
After the termination of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1st, the actual liquidity paths and asset market risk scenarios are summarized.
Amid the AI bubble debate, it highlights how changes in tech employment and profit structures amplify volatility, pointing out aspects that other media do not cover well.
A practical investor checklist along with timeline checkpoints are also included.
News Briefing: Shutdown, Statistical Gap, and the Current Employment Shock.
The prolonged federal government shutdown delayed official statistical releases, sharply increasing market uncertainty.
With the delay of core employment indicators such as unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, investors reduced exposure to risky assets, resulting in increased volatility.
Filling the gap were private employment indicators, and these data consistently indicated a slowdown in overall employment.
Politically, the shutdown has amplified internal disagreements within the Republican Party and concerns over lame-duck governance, placing strain on policy consistency.
From a market perspective, rather than being driven by the “AI bubble” narrative, the uncertainty premium created by the statistical gap has been the main source of volatility.
Comprehensive Overview of Private Employment Indicators: Why the 22-Year “Employment Shock” is Evident in the Data.
Challenger layoff figures reached a 22-year high as of October, demonstrating the intensity of corporate workforce adjustments.
The ADP nonfarm private employment (3-month moving average) has shown a steady decline, confirming a reduction in new hiring demand.
Indeed job postings and JOLTS job openings have clearly reversed from their peaks, indicating that the previously tight labor demand is cooling off.
The average of the Federal Reserve Bank’s manufacturing and services employment indices, while not experiencing a shock comparable to the pandemic, still points to a rapid slowdown.
New and continuing unemployment insurance claims (4-week moving average) have risen relative to estimates, making the lagging indicators of employment market cooling visible.
Taken together, the diffusion indices across employment indicators have shifted from “gradual slowdown” to “accelerating cooling.”
The Three Main Factors Behind Employment Cooling: Policy Factors Dominate.
Tariff policies have directly struck corporate labor demand by pressuring margins.
Industries such as transportation, machinery, and beverages/tobacco, where passing on prices is difficult, have experienced an expanding employment gap.
Restrictions on immigration have reduced the labor supply, exacerbating matching inefficiencies while increasing wage pressures, leading to both hiring delays and reductions in the scale of recruitment.
Reductions in federal employees and unpaid leaves due to the shutdown have sharply decreased public sector demand, further intensifying downward pressure on employment.
In conclusion, most of the employment downturn is interpreted as a structural shock created by policy variables such as tariffs, immigration restrictions, and governmental efficiency measures.
The Purpose of the “Planned Employment Recession”: Inducing Rate Cuts and Opening the Liquidity Pipeline.
The Federal Reserve adheres to data-driven decisions.
Even if politicians desire rate cuts, interest rate decisions must be driven by movements in employment and inflation data.
By cooling employment data through policy, the Fed secures the rationale to shift the focus of risk from inflation to employment.
If employment is “moderately weak,” the case for rate cuts emerges; however, if employment is “too weak,” it risks destabilizing asset prices due to risk-off sentiments.
The original text warns that the current situation might have exceeded the intended scope, entering into “excessive cooling.”
The key aim is to create a data environment conducive to rate cuts and sustained liquidity (a liquidity-dominant market), which could provide structural upward pressure on asset markets in 2025–2026.
What Changes After the End of QT: A Structural Look at the Liquidity Mechanism.
The conclusion of QT signifies “not turning off the tap any further,” which is not immediately equivalent to Quantitative Easing (QE).
The first step is to cease balance sheet reduction once reserves are sufficiently high, and if financial stress or recession deepens, it may transition into net expansion (through increased reinvestment or net purchases).
The original scenario views the end of QT on December 1st as a turning point, suggesting that QE might be initiated at some point in 2026.
In reality, policy is operated based on the combination of three variables: real economy, inflation, and employment, with factors like the Treasury’s debt issuance mix and the depletion rate of RRP balances playing a significant role in determining market liquidity.
The key point is that the end of QT itself acts as a loosening of financial conditions, and when combined with rate cuts, the sustainability of a “liquidity party” increases.
Three Market Scenarios and Asset Implications.
Scenario A: Mild recession and easing inflation.
- Rate cuts are implemented sequentially and financial conditions ease.
- Long-term bond yields decline, high-quality credits perform strongly, and large-cap stocks with stable earnings take the lead.
- In a period of a weak dollar, funds flow into gold, select commodities, and emerging markets.
Scenario B: Overly aggressive employment cooling and credit stress.
- Initially, risk aversion expands, accompanied by steep rate cuts and surging volatility.
- Upon reaching a certain threshold, QE or a massive liquidity backstop could be triggered.
- A higher allocation to cash, short-term treasuries, and gold acts as a buffer.
Scenario C: Re-ignited inflation and delayed easing.
- With fiscal expansion, supply disruptions, and wage stickiness, persistent high inflation slows the pace of rate cuts.
- An upward shift in both short- and long-term interest rates and a revaluation of asset valuations become inevitable.
- Quality growth stocks with solid earnings momentum and dividend stocks with robust cash flows provide relative defense.
AI Trends: The Bubble Debate and the True Variables in Employment and Profit Structures.
The AI infrastructure cycle is one where the “pre-investment” in GPUs, power, and data center CAPEX precedes revenue generation.
In this phase, hiring in non-core organizations may slow or be streamlined (through layoffs or role realignments), which can be reflected in the Challenger layoff statistics.
For cloud and AI platforms, margin improvements only occur when revenue recognition shifts from the training phase to the inference phase.
Rising costs of power, cooling, and networking constrain short-term margins, and the pace at which revenue models transition amplifies market volatility.
The crux is the timing of achieving AI productivity gains.
While companies may first record cost savings, delays in new revenue can lead to short-term “employment slowdown and a gap in earnings momentum.”
The Most Important Point That Others Often Overlook.
Combination of Statistical Gaps and Policy Timing.
- When official employment indicators are delayed due to the shutdown, policymakers gain time to adjust the rationale for rate cuts within a “data-driven” framework.
- During the gap period, private data drives sentiment, making the uncertainty premium prone to overestimation.
The True Source of the “Liquidity Pipeline.”
- More immediately influential than the mere end of QT are the Treasury’s debt issuance structure (the mix of bills versus coupons) and the absorption rate of RRP balances, which directly affect market interest rates and risky assets.
- After the depletion of RRP, the sensitivity of banks’ excess reserves increases, leading to higher co-movement among credit, money markets, and exchange rates.
The Double-Edged Effects of Immigration and Wages.
- In the short term, immigration restrictions may increase wage pressures and inflation, but they simultaneously exacerbate matching inefficiencies, worsening employment indicators.
- This combination embeds both the rationale for rate cuts and the risk of re-ignited inflation, making the policy trajectory more volatile.
Checklist: Timeline and Data Points.
Check the schedule for the resumption of official employment indicator releases and the scale of statistical revisions.
- The direction may be reinforced during the one- to two-month revision period after the first release.
Monitor private leading employment indicators on a weekly basis.
- Key indicators include the Challenger layoff data, online job postings, the Federal Reserve’s employment index, wage trends, and the 4-week moving average of continuing unemployment claims.
Combine them with liquidity indicators.
- The Treasury’s cash balance (TGA), RRP balances, bank reserves, corporate bond and repo spreads, and short-term CP rates reveal the current state of liquidity.
Interpret policy communication carefully.
- Phrases such as “balancing risks,” guidelines for QT operations, reinvestment policies, and the Treasury’s debt issuance calendar offer crucial hints.
Set principles for managing positions.
- In volatile markets, a mix of cash/short-term bonds as a shield, duration diversification, a focus on quality credits, and a blend of growth and dividend stocks with visible earnings is effective.
One-Page Summary from an Investment Perspective.
Liquidity timing, rather than direction, determines performance.
Capitalize on the gap between the “number shock” immediately after official statistics resume and the speed of subsequent policy responses as a trading idea.
Even if rate cuts begin, if credit stress remains, a decoupling between equities and credit can occur.
While AI may boost productivity in the medium to long term, short-term cost pressures and employment adjustments act as factors amplifying volatility.
The key themes are rate cuts, recession, inflation, liquidity, and employment indicators.
< Summary >
Due to the shutdown delaying official statistics, private employment indicators warned of an “employment shock,” which has led to the rationale for rate cuts and expanded liquidity.
The employment slowdown was largely driven by policy factors such as tariffs, immigration restrictions, and reductions in federal employees.
The end of QT signals a shift towards easing financial conditions, with actual liquidity being determined by fiscal policy, RRP balances, and the debt issuance mix.
While AI may increase short-term volatility through cost pressures and employment adjustments, its long-term productivity potential remains upward.
Investment strategies should leverage the timing of liquidity and the gap between the “numbers and policies” immediately after the resumption of official statistics.
[Related Articles…]
- US Rate Cuts and QT Termination Shaping the 2026 Asset Landscape.
- RRP and the Liquidity Pipeline: The True Source of Dollar Liquidity.
*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]
– 셧다운 종료후 미국 22년만의 고용쇼크, 유동성 공급을 위한 트럼프의 계획 [경읽남 219화]
● Market Bombshell, Samsung Surge, Battery Revival, Shipbuilding Boom
Samsung Electronics ‘HBM Call Test Passed’ Followed by a Major Comeback Scenario and 2nd Battery, Shipbuilding, Robotics, and Bio: A Complete Overview of Key Variables in the 2025 Korean Market
This article covers everything from the catalyst for Samsung Electronics’ rebound, an explosive phase for semiconductor materials and components, a “startlingly similar to five years ago” 2nd battery comeback, a re-up trigger for shipbuilding and Doosan Enerbility, a leadership change in robotics, to the conditions for a bio rally.
It organizes checking points for each stock group in a news format by linking global economic variables such as the HBM call test, CoWoS bottlenecks, exchange rate and export momentum, interest rate pivot, and easing inflation.
It also compacts the “real decisive variables” that are rarely covered in other YouTube videos or articles.
[Breaking News] Samsung Electronics: ‘Inevitable’ Rebound Sequence Following HBM Call Test
Key News.
Samsung has largely resolved the uncertainties surrounding the HBM call test issue aimed at Nvidia, and expectations of beginning deliveries have increased.
In a phase of rebounding memory market conditions, Samsung aims to reduce its technology gap while improving both ASP and market share simultaneously.
Why Now.
AI semiconductor demand is driving the data center investment cycle, and the tight supply of HBM continues.
TSMC’s expansion of CoWoS packaging, which will be reflected in 2025, validates the simultaneous expansion effect of memory, packaging, and substrates.
A high won exchange rate region provides export leverage that favorably impacts Samsung Electronics’ earnings improvement.
Fact Check.
The full-scale order from major customers will open only when HBM3/3E’s quality, power, and yield – the three key factors – are aligned.
The supply chain bottleneck is focused not on HBM itself but on packaging (CoWoS, interposer, burn-in/test) and advanced substrates (ABF).
Outlook.
Further recovery in DRAM ASPs and an expanded HBM mix are highly likely to re-rate the operating profit level in 2025.
An increase in the mix of DDR5/HBM for AI servers will boost the average margin and widen the upper end of stock valuation.
Risks.
A slowdown in AI capex, strengthening US-China regulations, prolonged packaging bottlenecks, and delays in HBM yield stabilization are key checkpoints.
Data to Monitor.
Nvidia’s quarterly guidance and the HBM bandwidth roadmap.
TSMC’s monthly CoWoS capacity update.
Won–dollar exchange rate and South Korean export statistics (semiconductors).
Global interest rate and inflation trajectories.
Semiconductor Materials and Components: Where Should You Position “If You Have 100 Million Won”?
Key News.
In the HBM chain, the bottleneck has shifted to packaging and test/substrate, and some domestic materials and components companies have entered a leverage phase.
Key Beneficiary Value Chain.
- Packaging/Bonder: Thermocompression (TCB), micro bumps, advanced packaging equipment.
- Test/Burn-in: Burn-in boards for HBM, tester handlers, thermal solutions.
- Materials/Consumables: Photoresist, CMP slurry, etching gas, high purity chemicals.
- Substrate/Interposer: Multi-layer ABF, silicon interposer, pre-glass interposer (mid-to-long term).
Strategic Points.
Timing must be captured when the capacity expansion order backlog in 2025 converts into actual sales and profits.
Weight is given to companies with a high proportion of domestic customers and high exposure to HBM and AI servers.
Risks.
Delays in HBM customer certification, equipment delivery delays, customer price negotiations, and export setbacks due to a sharp drop in the exchange rate.
2nd Battery: A “Chillingly Similar to Five Years Ago” Scenario for High-Voltage Electrodes
Key News.
Lithium and nickel prices are stabilizing, the detailed regulations of the IRA are becoming clear, and the North American production chain is returning to normal.
Why Now.
A phase similar to 2019–2020 is reoccurring where a fall in raw material prices and improvements in productivity trigger margin recovery.
Portfolio risk management is being strengthened with strategies in ESS, all-solid-state R&D, and an LFP/NCM hybrid approach.
Strategic Points.
- Confirm the numerical reflection rate of North American tax credits (IRA) and the local procurement rate.
- Look at the delivery schedule timed with the normalization of OEM inventories and the adoption timing of new platforms (800V, SiC).
- Check the downward trend in unit costs in the material chain for copper foil, separators, binders, and the pace of capacity expansion.
Risks.
A decrease in EV demand elasticity, aggressive Chinese LFP pricing, safety/recall issues, and cost rebounds due to re-ignited inflation.
Doosan Enerbility: Reasons for a Stumble and an ‘Unimaginable’ Next Catalyst
Reasons for the Stumble.
Controlled order recognition tempo, discounting of interest rate sensitive sectors, and time lags in approvals and financing for nuclear and wind projects.
Next Catalyst.
Restoration of the nuclear ecosystem and conversion of EPC framework agreements for projects in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
Expansion of references for gas turbines, seawater desalination, and hydrogen turbines.
Progress in actual orders and component standardization through SMR partnerships.
Check Points.
Sales conversion rate relative to order backlog, long-term revenue visibility from nuclear O&M, and the effect of exchange rates.
Shipbuilding: The Essence Behind a ‘Mad’ Rebound After a Sharp Decline
Key News.
The recognition of sales and profits from the order boom of 2021–2023 will become fully realized in 2025.
Countermeasures for LNG and ammonia, along with strengthened IMO environmental regulations, help maintain freight rates.
Strategic Points.
- The delivery of high value-added LNG carriers and container ships drives margin improvement.
- Stabilization of labor costs and plate prices, along with exchange rate effects, provide additional leverage.
- Ship automation and eco-friendly propulsion solution partners are the second-tier beneficiaries.
Risks.
A global economic slowdown leading to reduced new orders, a decline in freight indices, and a recurrence of soaring costs.
Robotics: Changing the Leading Stocks, Where to Look Besides Robotez
Key News.
The actual ROI of industrial and service robots is becoming clear, reinforcing the profit chain centered on key components.
Notable Value Chain.
- Reducers/Motors/Encoders: These have a high cost component and high technological barriers, offering strong profitability protection.
- 3D Vision/Sensors/Safety PLC: Key to improving productivity with potential for ASP increases.
- Collaborative/Mobile Robot Software: An increase in the share of subscription-based revenue.
Strategic Points.
Watch for major corporate references, in-house service and parts integration rates, overseas sales proportion, and whether they benefit from exchange rates.
Pharmaceuticals & Bio: The Sector that Reacts First to an ‘Interest Rate Pivot’
Key News.
The peaking of global interest rates is leveraging long-term cash flow value.
The production chains related to CDMO, ADC, and GLP-1 are highly likely to expand next year’s performance improvements.
Strategic Points.
- Prepare in advance by laying out the calendar of US PDUFA, Phase 3 results, and partnering events.
- The performance sensitivity of export-oriented CDMOs increases in a high won–dollar exchange rate environment.
- Check the realism of cash assets/cash burn rates and pipeline valuations.
Risks.
Clinical failures, delays in technology exports, adverse effects if the exchange rate falls sharply, and cost pressures if inflation re-accelerates.
News in a Nutshell: The Calendar to Check Right Now
- Updates on Nvidia’s earnings and AI server capex guidance.
- Updates on TSMC’s CoWoS/interposer capacity and customer roadmaps.
- Monthly data on South Korean exports (semiconductors, automobiles, shipbuilding) and exchange rate trends.
- Battery raw material prices (lithium, nickel, cobalt) and detailed IRA regulations.
- Global interest rate decisions (Fed, ECB) and inflation pathways, real interest rates.
The ‘Real’ Decisive Variables Rarely Mentioned Elsewhere
- For AI servers, it is not only HBM but the serial bottleneck of packaging–substrate–test that determines success.
- A 1 percentage point improvement in HBM yield reflects non-linearly on margins, having an even greater impact on stock prices.
- In 2nd batteries, platform generation shifts (800V, thermal management, BMS) rather than the LFP vs. NCM debate drive value differences.
- In shipbuilding, the physical capacity of manpower and docks, rather than cost, determines freight rates.
- In bio, it is not technology but “capital sustainability” and “production/regulatory compliance with Big Pharma” that determine the probability of success.
Investment Framework by Scenario: Conservative, Neutral, Aggressive
Conservative.
Long-term peaks in US interest rates, sustained strong exchange rates, and moderate AI capex.
In semiconductors, focus on major memory stocks; in materials and components, diversify across test and materials.
Neutral.
An interest rate pivot, moderate easing of inflation, and exchange rates within a range.
A basket comprising major semiconductor stocks + the HBM chain, 2nd battery materials, and a mix of major shipbuilding stocks + equipment.
Aggressive.
Resumed acceleration of AI capex, export leverage from exchange rates, and a recovery in the economic cycle.
High-beta HBM equipment/test stocks, key robotics components, and expanded bio CDMO/ADC.
Risk Management Checklist
- Establish a segmented approach based on an event calendar and pre-determine stop-loss and rebalancing rules.
- Constantly monitor risks such as dependence on a single customer, short-term surges/dilution events, and policy/regulatory news.
- Enhance efficiency against volatility by utilizing currency hedging, cash weight, and sector correlation coefficients.
Conclusion: Conditions Must Align for it to be ‘Inevitable’
Samsung Electronics’ rebound quality will change when HBM supply chain bottlenecks ease and exchange rate/export leverage align.
For semiconductor materials and components, it is crucial to capture the “timing of performance transition” centered on packaging, test, and substrates.
2nd battery margins will gain elasticity when cost stability and the transparency of the North American chain coincide.
For shipbuilding and Doosan Enerbility, re-rating will be completed only when the transition from orders to earnings recognition and the interest rate pivot occur together.
In robotics and bio, success hinges on selecting stocks that check the reality of “components/production/cash flow.”
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific stock. Investment decisions and responsibilities lie with the individual, and attention should be paid to fluctuations in macro variables such as interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates.
< Summary >
- Samsung Electronics: HBM call test, easing of packaging bottlenecks, and exchange rate leverage are the catalysts for the rebound.
- Materials and Components: The focus is on packaging/test/substrate bottlenecks, and the key is the performance transition in 2025.
- 2nd Battery: It signals a high-voltage electrode scenario similar to five years ago with cost stability + IRA transparency.
- Doosan/Shipbuilding: Earnings recognition from the order boom and the interest rate pivot are the re-rating points.
- Robotics & Bio: Selection centered on core components, production capacity, and cash flow is required.
[Related Articles…]
HBM3E and Exchange Rates: A Complete Overview of Samsung Electronics’ Stock Variables
*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]
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