● Dollar Slump, Won Crash Looms

After the Trade War, Now Comes the Exchange Rate War? 2026 Won–Dollar 1,600 vs 1,300, What Determines It

The United States is signaling its intention to manage the Dollar Index within the 95–100 range.
The 1,300–1,400 won “new normal” has been established by the US–Korea interest rate differential and increased direct investment in the United States.
The acceleration of US rate cuts during 2025–2026 will lead to the actual impact of a weaker dollar.
The Bank of Korea’s reprioritization and the possibility of an interest rate hike card.
It also summarizes non-traditional factors such as AI data center investment and the spread of stablecoins all at once.

News Summary

• The won–dollar exchange rate range of 1,300–1,400 won has become the “new normal” formed by the reversal of the US–Korea interest rate differential and expanded direct investment in the United States.
• According to the trend outlined in the MATS report during Trump’s return to power, a “gradual weaker dollar” strategy is likely to be implemented after the trade war.
• The United States prefers to keep the Dollar Index within the 95–100 range, and it does not favor severe weakness below 90 due to the risks of diminished demand for government bonds and loss of confidence.
• In the period from September 2025 to September 2026, the pace of US rate cuts is likely to be faster than that of other countries, which will structurally increase the pressure for a weaker dollar.
• Due to the characteristics of a small open economy, the Bank of Korea has no choice but to prioritize “exchange rate stability > interest rate stability > stock market” in its policies and must keep the option of raising rates available if necessary.

Why the Range of 1,300–1,400 Won Became the ‘New Normal’

• A lasting foundation for a weaker won was established as the US–Korea interest rate differential reversed over the long term.
• Korea is not a reserve currency and has a small foreign exchange market, so shocks tend to be greatly amplified.
• Increased direct investment in the United States and expanded dollar spending on energy and defense have raised the exchange rate level.
• In the past, levels above 1,200 won were seen as a warning signal, but now the fundamental benchmark has been reset to the 1,300 won range.
• Additionally, overlapping risks associated with Trump’s policies have pushed the level up to the 1,400 won range.

US Interest Rate Path 2025–2026 and the ‘Dollar Index 95–100’ Scenario

• US rate cuts are very likely to accelerate in the latter half of 2025 to 2026.
• Other developed countries are already near their neutral rates, so there is limited room for further cuts.
• If the United States exhibits a relatively larger cut, it will create pressure for a weaker Dollar Index.
• However, the US will avoid an excessively weak dollar such as a collapse below 90 to prevent undermining confidence.
• In conclusion, a policy that manages a “lightly weaker dollar,” meaning keeping the Dollar Index at 95–100, is considered rational.
• In this scenario, the won may benefit from the weaker dollar, although its volatility could be amplified due to Korea’s unique factors.

Conditions for Realizing 1,600 Won vs. Conditions for Returning to the 1,300s

• Necessary conditions for the 1,600 won upper scenario:
• A sharp expansion of geopolitical risks.
• A significant increase in forced dollar spending factors such as additional US investments, defense, and energy spending.
• A compounded deterioration of the current account due to a sharp rise in oil prices.
• The Bank of Korea continuing a loose monetary policy during periods of exchange rate instability.
• A global contraction in dollar liquidity or the occurrence of credit events.
• Necessary conditions for a return to the 1,300 won range:
• A clear acceleration in the pace of US rate cuts during 2025–2026, with the Dollar Index stabilizing in the mid-95s.
• An expansion of the current account surplus due to improved semiconductor and automobile exports.
• A peak period of US investment combined with increased reshoring and facility investment in Korea.
• Hawkish communication and timely intervention by the Bank of Korea to stabilize exchange rate expectations.
• Basic scenario:
• The range of 1,350–1,480 won is likely to prevail until 2026.
• In the absence of external shocks, 1,600 won remains a “tail risk,” and within a Dollar Index of 95–100, a cyclical downward move to 1,320–1,360 won may occur periodically.

The Dilemma of the Bank of Korea and Policy Priorities

• The realistic policy priority is to place exchange rate stability > interest rate stability > stock market.
• If signs emerge that the exchange rate is fixing above the 1,500 won level, it may become inevitable to consider rate hikes even at the expense of inflation or growth.
• A single rate hike is unlikely to be effective; therefore, two to three consecutive signals may be necessary.
• Conversely, if the weaker Dollar Index and improvement in the current account are confirmed, the policy could shift from keeping rates steady to gradually cutting them.
• Intervention should focus on “controlling the speed,” employing a strategy that combines foreign exchange reserves with forward exchange and swaps to manage expectations.

The Core Points Highlighted Only in This Content

• The AI data center cycle creates dollar demand.
• US-led investments in AI facilities and semiconductor equipment payments generate substantial dollar demand.
• If Korean companies invest in fabs and factories in the US as well, the pressure for a weaker won could persist longer than expected.
• Stablecoins and “on-chain dollar” create subtle but structural variables.
• If the use of stablecoins in global settlements expands around 2026, emerging market currencies will exhibit a stronger preference for the dollar.
• This means that even if the Dollar Index remains at 95–100, the won, as a non-reserve currency, could incur an additional weakness premium.
• The logic of preventing a “reversal of the tariff effect” may intensify exchange rate pressure.
• Even if tariffs are imposed, if the counter currency weakens, the price effects will be offset.
• The United States has secured justification to check excessive won weakness by combining exchange rate clauses, monitoring lists, and verbal intervention.
• In conclusion, the key factor in 2026 lies at the intersection of the US Fed’s degree of easing, the US’s commitment to managing the exchange rate, and Korea’s cycle of dollar spending.

Execution Checklist for Corporations and Individuals

• Exporting and Importing Companies.
• Set the range of 1,350–1,480 won as the baseline, and adjust the average exchange rate upward near 1,500 won.
• Flexibly manage 6–12 month forward exchange coverage according to industry margin structures at 30–70%.
• For industries with a high proportion of raw material and energy costs, use option-type hedging (call buying, call spreads) to prepare for tail risks.
• Investors.
• Monitor the three key indicators: US interest rates, the Dollar Index, and Korea’s current account surplus.
• In the upcycle of the AI and semiconductor sectors, select stocks and assets that exhibit a high beta related to won strength.
• Financial and Policy Responses.
• Diversify the duration of foreign currency debt and gradually reduce the proportion of variable interest rates.
• Manage internal exchange rate assumptions according to three tracks (conservative, base, and optimistic) to minimize budget shocks.

Data Watchlist

• US interest rate dot plots and the gap in estimated effective neutral rates.
• Frequency of threshold tests at 95 and 100 for the Dollar Index.
• Trends in Korea’s current account and energy import volumes.
• The scale and schedule of Korea’s direct investment in the United States.
• Shifts in Japan’s monetary policy and fluctuations in the yen, as well as the stance of European monetary policies.

Consolidated Perspective

• The key to the exchange rate outlook is the battle between the US’s “lightly weaker dollar” intent and Korea’s cycle of dollar demand.
• The basic scenario is a range of 1,350–1,480 won, while 1,600 won represents a tail risk that requires new factors.
• By 2026, US monetary policy easing is likely to keep the Dollar Index between 95 and 100, during which the won could experience amplified volatility due to Korea’s unique factors.
• The Bank of Korea must design its policy with exchange rate stability as the top priority, while maintaining the flexibility to raise rates if necessary.

< Summary >

• The range of 1,300–1,400 won has become the new normal due to the interest rate differential and US investment.
• Accelerated US rate cuts in 2026 support a “gradually weaker dollar” scenario with the Dollar Index at 95–100.
• A level of 1,600 won is possible only if additional factors such as geopolitical risks and accelerated dollar spending come into play.
• The Bank of Korea should design its policy prioritizing exchange rate stability, while keeping the option for rate hikes available if needed.
• AI investments and the expansion of stablecoins are non-traditional factors that could increase the won’s weakness premium.

[Related Articles…]

• 2026 Exchange Rate War Scenarios and Dollar Index 95–100 Strategy
• US–Korea Interest Rate Differential and the Bank of Korea’s Choices: 2025–2026 Monetary Policy Roadmap

Additional Notes

• This content incorporates key keywords such as exchange rate outlook, US interest rates, Dollar Index, global supply chain, and monetary policy in a natural manner for search optimization.
• Investment decisions are each individual’s responsibility, and the latest data updates should always be checked.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 26년 환율, 1600원 우려 진짜일까? 대미 투자·금리차·트럼프 리스크 ‘관세 전쟁’ 다음은 ‘환율 전쟁’ | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 노영우 기자 3편

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● Battery Boom, ESS Goldrush, Korea’s Last Stand

The Real Reason Behind the Secondary Battery Rebound: ESS · AI Data Centers · LFP Prismatic, and Korea’s Survival Strategy

This article covers all the factors behind the rebound in secondary battery stocks, why ESS has better margins than electric vehicles, the new demand opened by AI data centers, the sudden attention on LFP prismatic, and even the survival strategy for Korean battery companies amid China’s ultra-low-price offensive.
In particular, it details the minutiae rarely explained elsewhere, such as “why customers prefer prismatic over pouch,” “the technical specifications AI data centers require from ESS,” and “Korea’s LMR/mid-nickel strategy after LFP.”
It also examines the impact of macro factors like interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates, as well as supply chain and trade issues on the battery value chain.

News Summary: Key Points Behind the Recent Rise in Secondary Battery Stocks

• Expectations were reflected in advance due to the accentuation of the ESS momentum.
• The expansion of AI data centers has newly generated demand for UPS/backup batteries and ESS for peak shaving.
• Strengthened U.S. tariffs and regulations against China have increased the relative benefits for Korean companies.
• While electric vehicle demand is slowing due to policy fluctuations and the rise of hybrids, ESS is expected to show structural growth through policy support and power grid investments.

Surge in ESS Demand: Why Now?

As the share of renewable energy increases, ESS has become an essential infrastructure to supplement intermittency.
Container-type ESS delivers a “complete system” not only with battery cells but also including BMS, inverters, cooling, fire protection, and software.
Its higher added value compared to individual cells makes it easier to achieve robust margins.
In AI data centers, power quality and uptime directly translate into revenue, accelerating the adoption of UPS and peak-shaving ESS.
Multiple revenue streams can be designed through peak avoidance in electricity bills, demand response participation, and ancillary services in the power market.

Why LFP Has Essentially Become the Standard in ESS

ESS is less constrained by weight and volume than electric vehicles.
Thus, safety, lifespan, and cost are more important than energy density, and LFP is optimized for these factors.
Its high thermal stability, long cycle life, and lower cost compared to NCM reduce the total cost of ownership in large projects.
Price competition in China has intensified to the point where LFP costs are being mentioned at around $50 per kWh.

Form Factor War: Practical Reasons Why Customers Prefer Prismatic

There has been a strong recent tendency among automakers and project clients to favor prismatic (prismatic) form factors.
Prismatic cells are praised for their ease of designing heat-spread prevention, module and rack standardization, and on-site replacement and maintenance.
In large rack units, they often have an advantage in safety certification and insurance underwriting, which scores well from a “project bankability” perspective.
LG Energy Solution mass-produced LFP pouch cells, while Samsung SDI, with its strength in prismatic cells, is expected to expand its customer base with mass production of LFP prismatic cells.

After the Electric Vehicle Chasm: The Market’s Order of Solutions

While charging infrastructure has improved, issues such as fluctuating subsidies, vehicle prices, and psychological range anxiety still remain as hurdles.
The solution for batteries converges on “lowering the price while maintaining safety and lifespan.”

• High-nickel NCM: Offers the best performance but is burdened by cost, thermal stability, and cobalt risks.
• LFP/LMFP: Suitable for the mainstream market due to advantages in price and safety.
• Mid-nickel/LMR: Cited as the next-generation combination aiming to balance high-nickel-grade energy density with cost and safety.
• Solid-state: The “ultimate” in density and safety, though it still faces challenges in unit cost and mass production.

China’s Current Situation and Risks: Hypercompetition and Restructuring

Although around 100 Chinese battery companies have proliferated, performance is heavily concentrated around CATL and BYD.
They have reduced LFP prices to record lows while rapidly expanding into domestic electric vehicles and overseas markets (Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America).
As regulatory barriers in the U.S. market have increased, Korea is gaining opportunities in North America, while in Europe and emerging markets, market share is being eroded by China.

Raw Materials and Supply Chain Check: Korea’s Dilemma and Solution

Korea faces the paradox of rising costs when meeting country-of-origin regulations in export markets due to heavy Chinese reliance on key materials like precursors.
While decoupling from China and localization are progressing, short-term cost and lead time burdens are emerging.
In a rising interest rate environment, massive capacity expansions increase capital costs and result in greater profit volatility.
Exchange rate fluctuations affect both export prices and raw material purchasing costs simultaneously.
Strategies to cushion the nickel, cobalt, and lithium price cycles by increasing recycling and scrap recovery rates are important.

Korean Battery Survival Strategy: The Essential Focus and Priorities

• Prioritize ESS: Expand the lineup of LFP prismatic cells, integrate racks and systems, and promote “project completeness” with packages of safety, insurance, and standard certifications.
• Defend margins with software: Accumulate profits through energy management systems (EMS), predictive maintenance, and optimized thermal management.
• Specialize in AI data centers: Propose long-cycle ESS models for UPS integration, black start capability, and 24/7 carbon-neutral power procurement.
• Dual-track material portfolio: Compete on cost with LFP/LMFP and balance performance with mid-nickel/LMR.
• Localize for North America and Europe: Proactively respond to trade and country-of-origin regulations and restructure the supply chain in a regulation-friendly manner.
• Financial defense: Reduce cycle risks through interest rate and exchange rate hedging, incremental capacity expansions, and diversification of project financing.

Positioning Against Japan

Japan, centered around Panasonic, is highly dependent on specific customers, and its domestic market, focused on hybrids, limits major growth sectors.
Korea, on the other hand, has room to build an advantage through diversified automaker relationships and robust ESS system capabilities.

Investor Checklist: 5 Macro and Policy Variables

• Interest Rates: High rates increase both the installment burden for electric vehicles and the capital cost of ESS projects.
• Inflation: Increases in raw material and construction costs can deteriorate project IRRs.
• Exchange Rates: Affect both raw material import costs and export prices simultaneously.
• Supply Chain: Changes in country-of-origin rules and localization rates alter lead times and costs.
• Trade Policies: Tariffs, subsidies, and carbon regulations can fundamentally reshape demand dynamics.

Current Issues in Numbers (Based on Interview Context and Industry Estimates)

• The ESS proportion is still small compared to EVs, but high growth rates and margin expectations prevail.
• LFP dominates in ESS, and prismatic cell preference is strengthening.
• Chinese LFP has been driven to ultra-low costs, with discussions around $50 per kWh.
• Solid-state batteries remain a medium-term challenge due to mass production and cost issues.
• Korea finds itself in a dual predicament with benefits in North America versus aggressive Chinese competition in Europe and emerging markets.

Key Points (Rarely Mentioned Elsewhere)

• The hidden reason for the preference for prismatic cells is “insurance, certification, and maintainability.”
  In project financing, fire and heat-spread certification are crucial, and prismatic cells facilitate modular and compartmentalized designs, making bankability evaluations more favorable.
• The real profit in ESS comes from “software and operations.”
  Long-term IRR is determined by algorithms optimizing multiple revenue streams such as peak shaving, ancillary services, and demand response, along with predictive maintenance.
• For data center batteries, “power quality” is key.
  Response speed, reliability, and redundancy are more important than energy density, thereby driving demand for high-reliability BMS and optimized thermal management tuning in LFP systems.
• For LMR and mid-nickel, the focus is on the “price-to-performance ratio.”
  They aim to achieve driving ranges close to high-nickel batteries, mitigate fire risks, and reduce costs by around 10%.
• Korea’s winning strategy lies in the “package.”
  It is necessary to offer an integrated package that includes not just the cells but also racks, systems, software, A/S, and insurance in order to avoid China’s kWh price wars.

< Summary >

• The rebound in secondary batteries is a result of combined factors: expectations from ESS, demand from AI data centers, and anticipated benefits from stricter regulations.
• ESS is centered on LFP, and with customers clearly preferring prismatic cells, Samsung SDI is in the spotlight.
• While electric vehicles face slowed growth due to price, subsidy, and psychological hurdles, LMR and mid-nickel aim to balance performance and cost.
• China is expanding across Europe and emerging markets with ultra-low-priced LFP, while Korea is pursuing a “split market” strategy by growing opportunities in North America.
• Korea’s solution is to systematize ESS based on LFP prismatic cells, secure margins through software, localize the supply chain, and implement financial defense measures.

[Related Articles…]

AI Data Center ESS, 2025 Investment Checklist
LFP Prismatic vs. Pouch: Korean Battery Survival Strategy

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 2차전지 이것 때문에 올랐습니다(강희종 작가 1부)

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● Retail Goldrush

[Black Friday & Cyber Monday 2025] Explosive Year-End Consumption, Stock Momentum, and Insights on AI & Data Centers All in One

This article summarizes the forecast for consumption during Cyber Week this year, the benefiting sectors and key stocks both offline and online, as well as trends in AI and data center infrastructure.
In particular, it highlights the real variables—retail media (advertising) and the costs of payments/returns that determine margins—and includes a timeline on how long the stock momentum may last.
It separately outlines the often-overlooked “advertising margin war” and the “hidden cost structure of AI recommendations, payments, and logistics,” so be sure to check it out until the end.

1) On-Site Momentum: Macy’s Parade → Igniting Consumer Sentiment

The Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade in New York is a representative urban event that drives multiple industries such as tourism, lodging, transportation, security, broadcasting, and performances.
Just the preparation of large balloons and performances boosts temporary employment and local demand, with the indirect and direct economic effects in New York City estimated to be several million dollars every year.
This year, pop-ups, limited-edition goods, and SNS live campaigns linked to the parade are set to enhance its role as a nationwide trigger for stimulating consumer sentiment.

2) Cyber Week by the Numbers: Mobility, Shopping, Mobile

Travel Demand: During the Thanksgiving holiday, the projected number of travelers is about 81.8 million, with over 73 million cars and more than 6 million air travelers.
Shopping Scale: There is a possibility that the total consumption during the year-end shopping season could surpass 1 trillion dollars for the first time ever.
Online Sales: According to Adobe estimates, the total online sales for the year-end season are approximately 253.4 billion dollars, of which Cyber Week (5 days) accounts for about 43.7 billion dollars.
Cyber Monday: Expected to reach about 14.2 billion dollars in one day, with mobile accounting for more than half, becoming a fixed trend.
Based on the trend of keywords, there is potential for both the overall US economy’s consumption resilience and global stock market sentiment to improve simultaneously.

3) Beneficiary Sectors & Stock Map: Offline → Online → Infrastructure

• Offline Retail (Black Friday): Large retailers such as Walmart, Target, Costco, and Best Buy maximize traffic and promotion effects.
  Walmart has strengthened its earnings defense through e-commerce, advertising, and expanded membership, while Costco’s strong stable member base sets it apart, though the scale of stock corrections varies by company.
• Travel & Lodging: Airbnb reflects expectations of increased bookings, and overall airline stocks gain momentum with the recovery of holiday load factors.
• Online Platforms & Payments (Cyber Monday):
  Amazon is poised to benefit multilaterally through commerce, logistics, AWS, and advertising (retail media).
  Shopify’s key driver is the expansion of independent e-commerce traffic and payments (Shop Pay).
  BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) companies like Affirm tend to see a surge in payment volumes in the high-priced gift segment.
• Logistics: UPS, FedEx, and last-mile networks see increased freight volume due to a surge in orders.
• Cloud, Data Centers & Semiconductors:
  Increased shopping traffic boosts the use of cloud computing required for advertising serving, personalized recommendations, payment risk scoring, and real-time inventory predictions.
  Demand is growing for both public cloud services centered around AWS and private clouds built by retail companies, while data center investments follow due to increased AI inference loads.
  In the dissemination phase of AI trends, the utilization rate of accelerator-based infrastructures such as NVIDIA and AMD becomes crucial.

4) Investment Strategy Checklist: Key KPIs for This Season

• Margins over Revenue: Whether the gross margin is maintained against the intensity of promotions.
• Inventory & Turnover: Inventory growth rate, days inventory outstanding (DIO), and management of size mismatches/return rates.
• Logistics & Delivery Costs: Cost per order (CPO), and the cost-saving effects from increased store pickup and curbside collection.
• Advertising & Retail Media: Growth rate of advertising revenue, profitability (ROAS) compared to external advertising, and utilization of first-party data.
• Digital Traffic & Conversion: Mobile conversion rate, shopping cart abandonment rate, CAC, and the mix of incoming channels.
• Payment Risk: Approval and delinquency rates for BNPL, and shifts in payment mix due to rising credit card borrowing burdens.
• Guidance: Whether Cyber Week performance translates into upward guidance for Q4, which will ultimately determine stock direction.

5) Risk Map: Costs and Macro Factors

• Surge in Returns and Cut in Free Returns: Increasing return costs immediately erode margins.
• Logistics Bottlenecks & Weather Variables: Missing delivery SLAs damage both costs and brand trust.
• Inflation, Interest Rates & Strong Dollar: Directly impact real income and consumer sentiment, as well as causing volatility in import costs and overseas revenue translations.
• Oil Prices & Freight Rates: Immediately reflected in air and ground transport costs.
• Credit Cycle: Increases in card and BNPL delinquencies may result in stricter approval rates, leading to a slowdown in conversion.
• Discount Competition: Pressure on ASPs that could dilute gross margins.

6) AI Trends: The “Invisible” Growth Engine for This Season

• Personalized Recommendations & Search: Improvements in recommendation and search using large language models (LLM) boost mobile conversion rates.
• Dynamic Pricing: Real-time adjustments reflecting demand, competition, and inventory to defend margins.
• Retail Media Automation: Simultaneous improvement in advertising efficiency and profitability through creative generation and bid automation.
• Demand Forecasting & Inventory Optimization: Minimizes returns and markdown costs by reducing regional SKU and size mismatches.
• Payment Fraud Prevention & BNPL Underwriting: Balancing approval and loss rates through refined risk scoring.
• Last-Mile & Route Optimization: Reduces logistics costs through shortened delivery times and increased pickup conversions.
• From a Data Center Perspective: As inference loads from recommendations, advertising, and fraud detection increase, cloud usage and GPU/accelerator utilization rise. This is reflected in the cost structure of infrastructure and the valuation of related stocks in the global market.

7) Timeline: How Long Will the Stock Momentum Last?

• Pre-Reflection Period: Anticipation reflected in stock prices from the period before Thanksgiving.
• Confirmation Period: Increased volatility when data points (sales, traffic, returns, advertising revenue) from Black Friday and Cyber Monday are disclosed.
• Maintenance/Inflection: December Christmas, last-minute shopping, gift card usage, and year-end sales.
• Earnings Reflection: Guidance during Q4 earnings from mid-January to early February drives stock revaluation.
• Summary: This is a three-stage transition from anticipation → data confirmation → guidance. For companies with high expectations, margin and return data are key.

8) Perspective for Korean Investors: Exchange Rates, Exports, and Domestic Beneficiaries

A strong dollar leads to a weak Korean won, which has a translation effect on the performance of export companies with a high overseas sales share.
If U.S. retail inventory turnover is underway, shipments for Korean OEM/ODM manufacturers in electronics, appliances, and apparel could improve.
Global AI infrastructure expansion spreads demand for HBM, memory, and foundry, with ripple effects throughout the data center supply chain (semiconductors, power, cooling).
The demand for cross-border commerce presents opportunities for K-beauty and D2C fashion, where differentiated logistics partners and fulfillment capabilities stand out.
In domestic portfolios, hedging decisions are important in line with easing inflation and recovering consumer sentiment.

9) News-Style Briefing: Key Takeaways for Today

• Macy’s Parade: A large-scale New York event with significant ripple effects on the local economy.
• Holiday Travel: Forecast of 81.8 million travelers, over 73 million cars, and more than 6 million air travelers.
• Online Sales: 253.4 billion dollars for the season, 43.7 billion dollars during Cyber Week, and 14.2 billion dollars expected on Cyber Monday.
• Offline Beneficiaries: Walmart, Target, Costco, Best Buy—with a focus on promotions for apparel and appliances.
• Online & Payments: Amazon, Shopify, and BNPL (Affirm) with mobile conversion rates as a key factor.
• Infrastructure: Increased cloud usage and data center inference loads for AWS and similar, along with rising utilization of accelerators such as NVIDIA.
• Risks: Returns, delivery costs, and discount competition test margins; final direction will be set by guidance.

10) What Other Media Rarely Covers as “The Most Important Insights”

• Retail media is the real profit driver: Even if product margins fall due to discounts, advertising margins remain resilient and highly profitable. Keep an eye on the growth rates of Walmart Connect, Amazon Ads, and Target Rundell.
• The “inference cost” of AI recommendations is the hidden COGS: While it increases conversion rates, inference costs are reflected as cloud costs. It is essential to monitor the proportion of cloud costs relative to the increase in ARPU.
• Return rates drive the P&L: As free returns are being scaled back or monetized, companies adopting AI tools such as size guides and virtual fitting have an advantage in defending margins.
• In-Store Fulfillment Beats Delivery Costs: Companies with higher proportions of store pickup and curbside collection can defend margins through delivery cost savings.
• Collecting First-Party Data is Crucial: With privacy regulations weakening external targeting, the success of advertising profitability depends on the retailer’s own first-party data and loyalty programs.
• BNPL is a balancing act between “approval rate vs. loss rate”: Although revenue increases, rising delinquencies may delay the reflection of loss costs. It is essential to check cohort-specific loss rates and receivables sale terms.

Practical Application: Quick Stock & Metric Checklist

• Walmart/Target: Growth rate in retail media, same-store sales, proportion of store pickup, and inventory turnover.
• Amazon: Growth rates in 3P sales, advertising, AWS, changes in FBA fees, delivery speed/cost.
• Shopify: GMV, take rate, penetration rate of Shop Pay, revenue from partner ecosystem.
• Best Buy: Product mix for appliances, game consoles, and TVs; margin relative to promotion intensity.
• Affirm/Payments: Approval rate, delinquency rate, expansion of network partners, and loss rate trends.
• UPS/FedEx: B2C ratio, cost per order (CPO), peak surcharge, and productivity.
• Data Centers/Semiconductors: Guidance on cloud usage, AI inference workload, and plans for power/cooling expansion.

< Summary >

• Year-end consumption is divided between offline (Black Friday) and online (Cyber Monday), with mobile at the center.
• Benefits spread from retail → payments & logistics → cloud & data centers.
• This season’s winners and losers are determined not by sales but by margins, particularly in returns, delivery costs, and advertising (retail media).
• AI trends permeate recommendations, pricing, advertising, and logistics; while they boost conversion rates, managing inference costs and cloud expenses is key.
• Stock prices move in three phases: anticipation → data confirmation → guidance. Check the KPIs numerically.

[Related Articles…]
Retail Media: The Game Changer for Retail Profitability in 2025
Cyber Monday’s AI Infrastructure Battle: The Reconfiguration of Data Centers and Last-Mile Logistics

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [LIVE] 1년 중 최대 소비의 날, 주가 꿈틀대는 기업들 | 길금희 특파원

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