● Liquidity Vacuum Triggers Crypto Bloodbath, AI Arms Race and Metal Mania

87% Bets on December FOMC Rate Cuts, Broadcom Price Target Raised to $460, Copper and Silver Hit All-Time Highs, Crypto Plunge Due to ‘Liquidity Vacuum’, and the Winner in the TPU vs GPU War

This article covers the key scenarios for the December Fed meeting, the real trigger behind the crypto plunge (liquidity gap), changes in the AI accelerator supply chain led by Broadcom, Google, and NVIDIA, what the all-time high prices of copper and silver mean for the next infrastructure cycle, and the trading points from this week’s macro calendar.
It also separately summarizes topics that are rarely discussed in other YouTube videos or news reports, such as “the market resilience after the RRP depletion”, “the non-GPU beneficiary chain driven by TPU expansion”, and “the secondary effects of raw material strength on data center power CAPEX and inflation”.

1) Today’s Market Headlines Summary

• The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to around 87%, reigniting expectations for a policy pivot.
• Broadcom’s (AVGO) price target has been raised to $460, increasing expectations of benefits from the expansion of Google TPU demand.
• Copper and silver prices have hit all-time highs, reaffirming the strength in the commodity market.
• Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin which plunged dramatically in one day, have been shaken by a combination of a ‘liquidity vacuum’ and a DeFi hacking issue.
• Although the AI bubble debate continues, Google’s TPU moves and NVIDIA’s aggressive investments have clearly established a two-pillar accelerator structure with TPU and GPU.

2) Fed & Macro: December Rate Cut Bets at 87%, Market Already Reflecting a Policy Pivot

• According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to approximately 87%.
• This week’s schedule includes speeches by Fed Chair Powell, S&P Global PMI, ADP employment, core PCE, and Michigan consumer sentiment, which are all key to confirming a “price slowdown & economic deceleration → justification for a rate cut” trend.
• The article points out that the end of QT (quantitative tightening) and the sharp drop in RRP (reverse repurchase) balances have resulted in a “thin liquidity cushion,” which has heightened volatility in risk assets such as crypto.
• As the VIX spiked and the CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the ‘extreme fear’ zone, the global economy is showing mixed signals of “short-term shocks and a medium-term pivot.”
  Key Points
• Expanded volatility in interest rates and US stocks is inevitable around policy events.
• If the rate cut is perceived as a result of economic deceleration, growth stocks and high-beta stocks may initially wobble, but could later be revalued on expectations of liquidity recovery.
• The strength of inflation deceleration is key to a simultaneous rebound in stocks and bonds in December.

3) Crypto: The Essence of the Plunge is ‘Liquidity Vacuum’ + Micro Adverse Factors

• At a time when the market’s buffer has become thin due to the depletion of the RRP and the lingering effects of QT, a hack on a DeFi platform (approximately $9 million) triggered amplified selling pressure.
• On a thin liquidity surface, even minor adverse factors led to cascading slippage and forced liquidations.
• However, the article interprets this not as a structural collapse but rather as a ‘transition phase.’
• A scenario is presented where, if policy pivots become visible, Treasury cash absorption slows, and the effects of rate cuts accumulate, liquidity tensions may ease after mid-December.
• JP Morgan has upgraded Bitcoin to a “macroeconomic asset tradable by institutions” and mentioned a scenario where, in the long term, Bitcoin could be on par with gold at an upside near $240,000.
  Checkpoint
• In the short term, option positioning (holding both calls and puts) and volatility trading may shake the indices.
• In the medium term, ETF inflows, policy pivots, and institutional track records serve as a defensive shield.

4) The AI Accelerator War: TPU vs GPU, a Restructuring of the Supply Chain

• News that Google has run Gemini 3 on its own TPU suggests a signal of restructuring from a “single GPU dependency” to a “dual-axis TPU/GPU” framework.
• Broadcom, a key partner in Google TPU design and packaging, has had its price target raised to $460.
• NVIDIA is continuing its aggressive expansion by investing $2 billion in Synopsys, a leader in EDA (electronic design automation), thereby vertically strengthening its ecosystem.
• While maintaining strategic stakes in major model initiatives like OpenAI and xAI, it is reinforcing the unity of the CUDA-accelerated computing camp.
• In terms of cloud growth, Google Cloud has recently shown the steepest QoQ/YoY growth, while AWS and Azure are defending their positions with their ‘absolute scale’ advantage and enterprise prowess.
  Who Benefits?
• The entire value chain from design/EDA, AI-specific ASIC/TPU, advanced packaging (2.5D/CoWoS), HBM memory, data center power/cooling, to optical communication (silicon photonics) is seeing structural benefits.
• Moving away from a GPU monopoly, multi-vendor strategies facilitated by standard diversification and companies in the interconnect/software abstraction layer (compilers, frameworks) are being re-evaluated.

5) Commodities: What the All-Time Highs in Copper and Silver Imply

• The all-time high prices of copper and silver have reconfirmed that the commodity rally is running in tandem with the energy transition and data center cycles.
• AI data centers are copper-intensive, and increased power infrastructure investment stimulates copper demand.
• On the ground, issues such as a surge in copper theft in the US highlight the ‘physical tightness’ of the market.
  Investment Implications
• The secondary deceleration of inflation could be slower, and intermittent upward pressure on both short- and long-term rates may emerge.
• The medium-term demand momentum in the value chain—power grids, substations/cables, copper, silver, soldering materials, industrial gases, cooling, and renewable energy BOS—is likely to be sustained.

6) Market Sentiment and Positions

• The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the ‘extreme fear’ zone.
• The VIX has spiked in the short term, and the US stock market has been retracing some of the gains from the previous week, reintroducing a volatile market environment.
• Even though rate cut bets are high, in a short-term collision phase of ‘economic deceleration vs liquidity easing,’ sector rotation could accelerate rapidly.

7) Policy·Digital ID: Investment Perspective on the United States’ Full-Scale Rollout of the ‘Real ID’

• In the United States, a federal-standard ‘Real ID’ is being added to state-issued identification systems, strengthening access controls at airports/TSA and federal facilities.
• Starting in May 2025, a Real ID or passport will be required for domestic flights, and the expansion of biometric authentication gates is expected to accelerate.
• Structural demand may arise for companies in security, biometric authentication, and cloud/data governance.

8) This Week’s Calendar & Trading Points

• Fed Chair Powell’s speech: Any change in the guidance tone regarding a rate cut is the directional cue for rates, the dollar, and the rotation between growth and value stocks.
• S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI: Key to note is whether the new orders, employment, and pricing components are contracting or expanding.
• ADP Employment, Core PCE, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Signals of decelerating wages and service prices strengthen the case for a rate cut.
  Strategy Hints
• It is advisable to manage cash/short-term bond allocations in anticipation of increased volatility before and after events.
• It is rational to concurrently examine baskets of interest rate-sensitive stocks (REITs, utilities, high-quality growth) along with commodity and power infrastructure beneficiaries.

9) Key Points Not Found Elsewhere

• After the RRP depletion, the market is like a thin bathtub where even minor adverse events can cause significant disturbances, so the depth of the bottom water is more important than the trigger.
• TPU expansion does not replace GPU demand but rather increases overall demand; the “common infrastructure layer” such as EDA, packaging, and optical communication is the true structural winner.
• The all-time highs in copper and silver reflect both sides of the coin in the data center and power grid crises. Do not forget that data center power CAPEX could cause a secondary upward effect on inflation.
• The formula ‘rate cut = stock prices will definitely rise’ does not hold. The reason (economic vs. inflation) and pace of the cut will differentiate multi-asset correlations.
• Crypto volatility is not necessarily a bad thing. As institutional inflows and ETF flows progress, the market is transitioning to a cycle characterized by “infrequent but large moves.”

10) Portfolio Checklist

• Rates: With rate cut bets in the 80% range, check your cash/short-term bond allocations in anticipation of event-driven volatility.
• AI: Review the weight of common infrastructure (EDA, HBM, packaging, power/cooling) that benefits from both TPU and GPU expansion.
• Commodities: With copper and silver at record highs, reassess their role as an inflation hedge under the assumption of prolonged physical tightness.
• Crypto: Prioritize risk management in this thin liquidity phase, and monitor institutional inflows/ETF flows.
• US Stocks: Accelerated rotation driven by events could open opportunities for a baton pass from big tech/semiconductors to commodities/utilities.

< Summary >

• December rate cut bets are at 87%, which indicates a period of short-term volatility followed by medium-term liquidity recovery.
• The underlying cause of the crypto plunge is the ‘liquidity vacuum’ created by RRP depletion and the lingering effects of QT, triggered by a DeFi hack.
• The AI front is restructuring into a dual-axis framework of TPU and GPU, and Broadcom’s raised price target of $460 reflects the structural demand in the TPU chain.
• The all-time highs in copper and silver signal potential secondary inflation effects due to data center and power grid CAPEX.
• This week, Powell’s speech, core PCE, and PMI will determine the strength and pace of the policy pivot and asset rotation.

SEO Keywords: global economy, US stocks, interest rates, inflation, commodity markets

[Related Articles…]

• December Fed Rate Cut Bets, Comprehensive Market Scenario Summary
• The AI Accelerator War: TPU vs GPU, Who Will Win?

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– 12월 금리인하 확률 87%ㅣ브로드컴 목표가 460달러로 상향ㅣ구리·은 가격 사상 최고치 경신ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕

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